Will DAP get the Chinese votes in Obamic proportions?
Not only did the blacks vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, they also came out in full force. Compared to black, the white turnout was lukewarm.
Ethnic breakdown USA:
- White — 79.96 percent
- Black — 12.85 percent
- Asian — 4.43 percent
- Amerindian and Alaska native — 0.97 percent
- native Hawaiian and other Pacific islander — 0.18 percent
- biracial/mixed — 1.61 percent
(Source: Index Mundi)
Note: A separate listing for Hispanic is not included because the US Census Bureau considers Hispanic to mean persons of Spanish/Hispanic/Latino origin including those of Mexican, Cuban, Puerto Rican, Dominican Republic, Spanish, and Central or South American origin living in the US who may be of any race or ethnic group (white, black, Asian, etc.); about 15.1% of the total US population is Hispanic
To round the figures, whites are 80 percent of the American population and blacks 13 percent.
According to the CNN exit poll, Obama got 39 percent of the white votes and Romney 59 percent. Yet Obama – who obtained 4 out of 10 white persons’ support as opposed to Romney’s 6 out of 10 – still managed to win the election.
An explanation to the phenomenon (i.e. coming second in terms of support from majority race but still prevailing) lies in how the turnout pie was sliced, in addition to the way the US electoral college system bundles the votes state by state.
From the total pool – i.e. the Americans who took the trouble to show up at the polling booth and queue up for hours to cast their ballot – the whites made up 72 percent, blacks 13 percent and Hispanics 10 percent of the votes.
Recall that 80 percent of the American population is white and 13 percent black.
Blacks make up 13 percent of the American population and 13 percent of those who voted on Nov 6.
Whites make up 80 percent of the American population and 72 percent of those who voted on Nov 6.
(It is unfortunate that the US population census does not record the Latinos as a distinct category as this omission complicates our comparison between ethnic and electorate demography.)
Nonetheless a broad trend can be discerned:
(a) According to national exit polls, participation among whites shrank compared to 2008.
“the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.” (‘The Case of the Missing White Voters‘, RealClearPolitics)
Does the Obama ‘Change’ tagline ring a bell?
(b) Black support for Obama in 2012 was as sky high as in 2008, and bearing in mind that four years ago the black turnout broke all records due to the novelty of the Obama factor. In 2008, black women had the highest turnout rate of all groups. “Black women made up 60 percent of the black vote this year (2012) and voted 95 percent for Obama.”
“… exit polls can be used to examine different groups as shares of the overall vote. And there, experts say, is where the evidence can be found of how much black voters delivered for Obama.”
“Blacks made up 15 percent of the electorate in [swing state] Ohio, up from 11 percent in 2008. And 97 percent of those votes went for Obama…”
“In Michigan, the black share of the vote grew from 12 percent in 2008 to 16 percent in 2012 … Michigan was one of the states the two parties jostled around, and eventually Republicans decided they were not going to win, and one of the reasons was the big increase in the black vote.”
“the black share of the vote [was] 13 percent in Florida, which Obama won both times. In Virginia, which Obama won in both elections, black voters were 20 percent of all voters.” (‘Black voters look to leverage their loyalty‘, Associated Press)
‘Black churches organize caravans to get Souls to the Polls‘, The Florida Times
In the 2000 election, Florida cost Al Gore the presidency by tipping to G.W. Bush by a razor-thin margin. In 2012, Florida was carried by Obama — Hallelujah! Thank you, black churches and your caravan convoy of souls.
(c) More Hispanics voted in 2012 than they did in 2008, and 71 percent of the Latino vote went to Obama.
The Obama campaign message button
To sum up, most of Malaysia’s political junkies are aware that Obama succeeded in getting out the votes of minorities across the spectrum – blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Muslims. We’re talking here about voters choosing between the options of candidate A and candidate B.
But secondly, there is also the matter of making the commitment to come out and vote. The whites lagged behind in this respect while the minorities demonstrated a splendid show of strength.
Thirdly, more women voted than men and all the women favoured Obama (gender-wise, fewer white women than white men voted Romney). And fourthly, the young and first-time voters were up for grabs and Obama got ‘em.
We’re familiar with the saying “work smart” (not necessarily “work hard”).
The white Republicans were the chunky but clunky Goliath whereas Obama played smart and nimble with his targetted approach.
Through collecting all minority interests (LGBTs, unwed mothers, welfare dependents, etc), Obama added up enough votes to edge out the Romney base.
I would not have commented on the American election results unless I thought that we could draw some useful observations from the voting pattern. And the parallel is this: DAP is playing the campaign game much smarter and more effectively than MCA.
Dinosaurs, after all, have brains the size of a walnut.
To be continued: One of the key reasons for the MCA splat