Hung Parliament GE13: Will half of MCA jump?

December 30, 2012 at 3:49 pm 11 comments

Will MCA jump ship?

A “pro-Umno” blogger says YES with regard to Ong Tee Keat. (We’ll get to his opinion shortly…)

abacus

111 is the magic number

There are 220 Parliament seats, so a simple majority in the House is 111.

DAP election strategist Ong Kian Ming provided his analysis below in The Rocket (2 Nov 2012):

“If PR can defend all of the 82 parliament seats it won in GE2008 and make further inroads by winning 1/3 of seats in the frontline states of Johor, Sabah and Sarawak (or an additional 20 seats), PR would have approximately 102 seats, just 10 short of a majority.

“If PR can focus strategically on a handful of marginal seats by fielding strong candidates and supporting him / her with adequate resources – seats such as Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor in Penang, Kuala Nerus and Dungun in Terengganu, Kuala Kangsar and Lumut in Perak, Lipis, Raub and Jerantut in Pahang and Bukit Katil in Melaka – it may just be enough to push PR over the magic number of 111 seats.”

Basking in the afterglow of the Obama effect, DAP is confident that they are at Putrajaya’s gate and only a few seats short of the key.

Trust Ong Kian Ming as someone who has packed his bags and left the MCA.

He speaks with the experience of having been attached previously to Insap, the MCA think-tank, and Sedar, the Gerakan think-tank before joining DAP in late August this year.

Who else will leave the MCA to join Pakatan?

CSLhungParliament

Frogs R u, unicorns R us

MCA represents the Chinese community. And the following is illustrative of what the Chinese community thinks about an elected representative who switches his allegiance across coalitions.

If the Yang Berhormat jumps from Pakatan to BN, he is a frog. The Chinese will want nothing better than to boil him (legs edible) in hot oil for his treachery.

But if the YB hops over to Pakatan from the BN, he will be regarded as a lily-white unicorn — the latest shining recruit to the Good side of the Force.

So the million ringgit question is how will the Chinese community, whom MCA represents, react if any of the the communal party MPs were to defect in the event of a hung Parliament.

To get an idea, let’s see how the Malaysian First icons generally treat frogs and unicorns.

‘Frog’ Madam Hee Yit Foong – the Jelapang Adun cum Perak deputy speaker – is squished underfoot.

GuanEngpijakKepala

Whereas below is how the Firsters greet a unicorn.

Anak Malaysia leading light, Our Lady of Subang, appears to give her blessings to the act of the first Perak state assemblyman to cross over. He is the Adun of Bota who did a triple jump — from Umno to PKR very briefly and thence settling as a BN-friendly independent.

IMPORTANT: Please make a note of what she says.

Hannah916

The last time Parliament was stirred

Comparing the 16 Sept 2008 attempt by Anwar Ibrahim to shop for 31 BN MPs, Hannah Yeoh claimed that Pakatan did not act unconstitutionally because if you can remember, the prime minister-in-waiting possessed

“the numbers to form the new federal government, he wrote to PM Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi requesting him to convene an emergency sitting of Parliament. This was rejected by the PM. The next constitutional option is to press for the dissolution of Parliament to make way for fresh new elections. That was also not entertained,” said Hannah.

You can read her statement on 916 in the Bar Council website under the title ‘A mockery of our democratic institution (referring to the Perak takeover)‘.

To DAPsters, when BN does something, it is always undemocratic and immoral but when Pakatan does the same thing, it is miraculously cuci Bersih. Well, that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

Hannah described Anwar’s acts of holding the legislative process to ransom as being legitimate “constitutional means that were available to him” to effect a regime change.

Never mind her lack of logic as to why on earth should Tun Dol – Datuk Seri Dollah at that time – feel obliged to call an emergency Parliament sitting to topple his own government at Anwar’s behest when BN had won the election only six months earlier with 140 seats to Pakatan’s 82.

But then again, they have their own internal illogic within the DAPster thought bubble although any sane person in the PM’s shoes would have chuckled at the Anwar ultimatum. And responded, “Dissolve Parliament? Duh, whatever for?”
TwitMeterDec2012
The Twit meter reading keeps going up because The Star keeps on recharging the gadget’s battery

.
MCA president Chua Soi Lek has suggested that Ong Tee Keat, the Pandan incumbent, may quit their party “if there is no clear winner to the next general election” (screenshot of news report, below).

Who else in the MCA “may jump ship with hung Parliament”?

Tee Keat may jump ship with hung Parliament, Soi Lek claims

Object of adulation in Jerusubang

First, what are the consequences of a Chinese BN representative jumping ship? We’ll do a cost benefit analysis.

If a Chinese Pakatan elected rep withdrew from his party, and his party was the DAP, his life would soon be a living hell. Just ask Perak’s YB Jelapang.

But the situation is the contrary should his move be in the opposite direction. Then he would be reenacting the heady salad days of Zaid Ibrahim when the ex-Law minister first parted ways with Umno and then later joined PKR.

(Note: Zaid was not holding any elected Parliamentary seat and he had already been sacked when he joined the opposition.)

The courageous MCA seat-holder who crosses over to Pakatan would be accorded public adulation similar to that showered on Zaid at one point in time.

Kevin Freddie and friends photographed with Dr Chua

Kevin Freddie (standing, far right) with Dr Chua @ “pro-Umno” bloggers session

Pakatan the paragon of ethics

In the DAPster moral equivalency universe, such an act of crossover can be readily excused with all kinds of justification … provided you move in the ‘right’ direction.

And it’s not as if the YB would be ostracized by his community for leaving BN. Rather he would be feted as a hero in the pantheon of Chinese warriors who caused the fall of the mighty “Dumno” and its Evil Empire.

Hence there is little disincentive in terms of social sanction if an MCA Member of Parliament were to change party. In any case, the party he’s headed for has already adopted the slogan ‘Ubah!’ after all.

Hannah Yeoh (hannahyeoh) on Twitter 2012-12-30 10-07-05

“Yes he will”

.
Blogger Freddie Kevin is one of those who attended the morning tea session with Dr Chua a couple of days ago.

In his posting ‘Ong Tee Kiat : Will He Or Won’t He?‘, Freddie shares his reasons why he believes Ong is capable of deserting the MCA.

  1. The MCA past president has previously threatened to pull out his party from BN
  2. He took the threat so far as to poll visitors to his blog on the proposal
  3. He is on record stating he would consider to stand as an independent or to set up a new party

On the question of who else, hava a look at a tweet from the MCA’s former three-term Adun in Subang Jaya. Incidentally, Datuk Lee Hwa Beng is tipped as being frontrunner to fill The Star CEO vacancy.

It is a piece of advice on the most expedient conduct in the coming general election.

Twitter hwabeng KhalidSamad Wajib dijadikan

Sentiments reflected by The Star

The Nik Aziz poster (above) tweeted by Lee Hwa Beng encourages voters:

“Kalau mereka [BN] beri duit kita ambil,

kalau beri gula kita kacau dan kalau mereka beri kain kita pakai.

Tetapi kena ingat ..! Apabila hari mengundi nanti, hendaklah pilih calon PAS,

kalau di tempat PAS tidak bertanding pilih KeADILan,

dan kalau tiada calon KeADILan kena undi calon DAP..”

The MCA credo?

If they (BN) give us seats we take
If they let us contest we campaign
and if voters pangkah Dacing, we don’t look a gift horse in the mouth
But remember ..! When the day of reckoning comes,
we will heed the popular will
of the community we represent
walk the path of godliness and righteousness
and uphold the high class values we subscribe to –
Democracy, Freedom, Justice, Integrity and Human Dignity

.
The Star
is universally acknowledged as the MCA mouthpiece and media machinery. The paper’s daily pages, quite naturally, reflect MCAthink.

Thus its 1.3 million readers will have already been persuaded by the personalities constantly featured in the paper – like how Nik Aziz commands the loyalty of PAS followers – on the right thing to do.

Hannah916

Read, ‘Such a kelakar fella lah, that Dr Chua’

Updated: 5.25pm

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Entry filed under: PRU13. Tags: , , .

Kes membuli oleh samseng DAP, warga emas akhirnya di’usir’ Bab Dr Chua Soi Lek menyelar blogger pro-Umno

11 Comments Add your own

  • 1. atas pagar  |  December 30, 2012 at 5:36 pm

    80-90% golongan minoriti AS sokong Demokrat kerana mereka jauh ketinggalan dalam serba serbi terutama ekonomi.

    Makanya tidaklah dianggap ‘stupid’ tetapi ada justifikanya kalau golongan minoriti menyokong Demokrat yang kebetulan mencalonkan Ovama…seorang pemimpin minoriti yang bersih dan suci.

    Sebaliknya para pengundi akan dianggap ‘stupid’ dan ‘buta’ kalau tidak menolak Repulikan walhal parti berkenaan diwakili oleh calon dari kalangan majoriti (yang kebetulan raja kapitalis).

    Kalau AS adalah contoh demokrasi terbaik dan menjadi ikutan, adalah logikal kalau mana-mana negara demokrasi yang mempunyai demografi penduduk seiras AS untuk terdorong menjadikan kejayaan Ovama sebagai ikutan.

    Namun adalah stupid dan buta kalau golongan minoriti yang jauh ketinggalan dalam serba-serbi berbanding golongan minoriti untuk memberikan sokongan majoriti kepada calon dari kalangan minoriti meskipun calon berkenaan jauh lebih bersih dan suci berbanding Ovama.

    Dan jauh lebih stupid dan buta kalau dalam barisan kepemimpinan yang sedia ada, mereka ternampak ada seorang yang seiras Ovama sema ada secara zahir atau berupa jelmaan di tingkap kaca.

    Reply
  • 2. forrrestcat  |  December 30, 2012 at 6:39 pm

    I think its open secret that OTK is PR sympathiser. Lama dah tau, tak payah nak suruh CSL jumpe psychiatry la OTK, lu la pi la daftar masuk DAP, tak payah nak jadi hero masa PRU 13.

    Reply
  • 3. atas pagar  |  December 30, 2012 at 8:11 pm

    Shah Alam adalah bandar Diraja, begitu juga Kuala Kangsar. Apa yang berubah di Shah Alam (perubahan negatif untuk Muslim) akan turut berjangkit ke Kuala Kangsar kalau bandar Diraja ini jatuh ke tangan pihak yang berkeupayaan membuat perubahan negatif.

    Kalau OKM meramalkan bandar KK boleh bertukar tangan, saya dapat rasakan OKM tidak mengambilkira ilmu sains sosial dan Newton’s Law dalam membuat ramalan tetapi sekadar mengunakan kepakaran untuk mengharumkan nama sendiri semata-mata.

    Reply
  • 4. marhaeman  |  December 30, 2012 at 8:48 pm

    Majoriti mudah untuk dapat kuasa adalah 112. Kalau diandaikan Pas boleh pulun 30 kerusi makanya Dap dan PKR harus memiliki 82 kerusi.

    Hanya berbekalkan anggaran 30 dari 112 kerusi, apakah yang dapat Pas kotakan dengan bilangan sebanyak itu?

    Ibarat sudah jatuh ditimpa tangga, kalau andaian bahawa si ‘unicorn’ akan menyertai Pakatan menjadi kenyataan. Pas bermakna dengan sendirinya jadi parti paling minoriti dalam Pakatan.

    Dalam kedudukan minoriti, tidak ada apa yang Pas dapat ucapkan selain ini: “manifesto bukan janji”

    Keminoritian Pas bermakna semua perkhabaran yang dibawa akan jadi indah khabar dari rupa. Keminoritian Pas bermakna meskipun jiwa masih meronta tetapi jasad seolah-olah telah terkambus.

    Selain itu tidakkah apabila ‘unicorn Barisan’ masuk padang Pakatan akan merubah komposisi dan profil padang Pakatan menjadi bertambah tidak seimbang – lebih banyak unicorn putih berbanding Pas?

    Justeru, cuba bayangkan apakah Pas boleh terima seadanya beberapa unicorn dari padang Barisan bergabung bersama unicorn Pakatan, sedangkan gabungan sedemikian akan menjejaskan bahagian untuk Pas dalam konteks perkongsian?

    Dan kalau padang Pakatan jadi bertambah sesak dan riuh-rendah, apakah Pas hairan kalau dianggap katak hijau yang menunggu masa untuk melompat? Bukankah atak hijau juga ada hak untuk lompat keluar dari padang yang didominasi oleh unicorn ke kolam lain yang lebih selesa dan damai?
    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Saya tidak menolak kemungkinan PAS mengundur nanti dalam scenario yang dibayangkan anda. Contohnya dalam tahun 2010 PAS membenarkan kalimah Allah dikongsi, sekarang dah tak. — Helen

    Reply
    • 5. forrrestcat  |  December 30, 2012 at 10:17 pm

      Dulu PAS seloroh kata kalau org kristian guna Allah, terbuka hati mereka masuk Islam…tak menjadi kot.

      Reply
    • 6. atas pagar  |  December 30, 2012 at 11:04 pm

      1. Muslim tidak memiliki kerusi berlandaskan merit dalam Dap.

      2. Dalam masa sama Pas tidak mengiktiraf kedudukan PKR sebagai PM-in-waiting.

      3. Suara Pas mungkin tenggelam dalam Pakatan Rakyat kalau suara kiasu bersatu.

      Tiga faktor di atas agaknya sudah cukup dijadikan justifikasi di pihak Pas untuk menunjukkan jari tengah pada Dapster dan seterusnya angkat kaki.

      Reply
  • 7. marhaeman  |  December 30, 2012 at 9:05 pm

    Saya tak hairan kalau ektremis kiri boleh berubah ke posisi tengah, dan kalau perubahan tersebut tidak dihargai oleh Dap sebaliknya Dap berharap ektremis tadi bergerak terus ke posisi ektrem terkanan, saya bertambah tidak hairan kalau ektremis tadi akan pulang ke pangkal jalan – kembali ke posisi paling kiri dalam skala ekstrem.

    Reply
  • 8. shamshul anuar  |  December 30, 2012 at 10:41 pm

    Helen,

    They say in politics there is no permanent friends, or rather more accurately permanent enemy.

    As for MCA, I believe naturally it wants to associate with the winning party. For that reason alone Sept 16 2008 was doomed to failure. Only morons would want to jump from the seat of govt legitimately won to an unethical coalition by a desperate politician who cant accept the election result.

    The problem of MCA is that until recently it adopts an aplogetic approach. It simply refused until recently to tell Chinese point blank that they cant simply ignore the important or reality in politics:that the largest block of voters are Malays.

    Hence the only viable position is to adopt a cooperation with Malays. PKR does not have a Malay image. while PAS has denounced anything about Malay as being “assabiyah”.

    As for MCA leaving the BN, wellit comes with a package. Leaving BN means MCA will be without Malay votes, the lifeline of MCA actually. Without it, MCA is actually destined to be a museum piece only. Who can forget how MCA won in places like Alor star that has a malay majority. Should MCA leaves, it has to contest ONLY on Chinese areas.

    Reply
  • 9. kiasu  |  December 30, 2012 at 11:42 pm

    ““If PR can defend all of the 82 parliament seats it won in GE2008…”

    —this very first naive assumption by DAP will be their very first downfall, ignorance of the changing ground and underestimating inroads made by BN.

    Remember the By-Elections, who was winning earlier and who thereafter? Yet he still assumed they would win all 82? What a fool analysis by OKM. Is this strategist for real?

    Reply
    • 10. Helen Ang  |  December 30, 2012 at 11:48 pm

      Mebbe dat vy MCA becoming extinct? He was with the MCA think-tank earlier.

      Reply
  • 11. Salhas  |  December 31, 2012 at 12:20 am

    The Chinese very well know that, for this upcoming election, regardless of how the voting goes, it’s head I win tails you lose situation. Even Chua Soi Lik is in the thick of the Chinese power grab grand design. How else can one interprete his inaction on the treacherous MCA mouthpiece, the Star. Dr. Chua knows, as everyone including the newborn pigling, that even if voters reject all MCA candidates, the stupid UMNO would continue to include MCA leaders in their cabinet through the backdoor, the Senate, should the BN again manage to form the Federal Government. The mention of Tee Keat is no more than a smoke screen.

    Reply

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