Posted in PRU13

Every seat counts but MCA dragging BN down (UPDATED)

Does MCA expect Umno to deliver it the Malay votes?

Out of the 15 Parliamentary seats which MCA currently holds, nine are in Malay majority areas.

See percentages in bold under ‘M’ (Malay) column in chart below

In the last general election, MCA had stood in 40 Parliamentary constituencies. The party won only 37.5 percent of the seats it contested. Fail.

Parliamentary seats won by MCA

Talian hayat

In the Chinese majority areas, MCA won a mere six Parliamentary seats.

Updated: MCA only won in four areas of above 50 percent Chinese majority: Kampar (62.6%) in Perak, and Kluang (52.4%), Gelang Patah (54.1%) dan Kulai (58.8%) all in Johor.

For a comparison of DAP making an almost clean sweep of the Chinese majority areas, see breakdown below and table at footnote, bottom of page. — 8.45am, Oct 3

DAP victories in almost mono racial Parliament seats:

  • Chong Chieng Jen — Kuching  (91% Chinese voters)
  • Tan Seng Giaw — Kepong  (90%)
  • Teresa Kok  — Seputeh (90%)
  • Chow Kon Yeow  — Tanjong (85%)
  • Tan Kok Wai — Cheras  (84%)
  • Lim Kit Siang  — Ipoh Timor (81%)

DAP Parliamentarians in 75-80 percent Chinese electorate seats

  • Fong Po Kuan — Batu Gajah
  • Tony Pua  — Petaling Jaya Utara
  • Hiew King Chiew — Kota Kinabalu
  • Fong Kui Lun — Bukit Bintang

DAP Parliamentarians in 70-75 percent Chinese electorate seats (coincidentally all in Penang)

  • Lim Guan Eng — Bagan
  • Chong Eng — Bukit Mertajam
  • Liew Chin Tong — Bukit Bendera
  • Karpal Singh – Bukit Gelugor

It is clear that it was the Malay voters who gave the party its lifeline because out of the nine Malay-majority seats retained by MCA, in eight of them the opponents who lost to MCA were Malays. Meaning, between the choice of MCA Chinese vs. PKR/PAS Malay or between MCA Chinese vs. DAP Malay, the Malay voters who support BN had in 2008 plumped for the Chinese candidate.

The question today is whether Umno can still persuade its Malay base to vote MCA given the prevalent race tensions and such acts as that depicted in the photo below. The behaviour of an unrepentant young man is one thing. The behaviour of the Chinese who quite unanimously refuse to see any rudeness in what he did is another matter altogether.

Soalan cepu emas

Malays did not cast their votes for the Chinese politician concerned in his individual capacity but they voted their belief in the Dacing brand. That was how the BN formula traditionally worked.

However, there has been a sea change in race relations since 2008 that saw traditions fall by the wayside, as exemplified in the recent National Day fiasco of separate celebrations, different logos and multiple slogans.

In fact, the building up of the currents leading to the March 8 tsunami can be seen in the voting patterns of several seats where a Chinese candidate had been pitted against a Malay candidate rather than the more common permutation of Chinese vs. Chinese, Malay vs. Malay, Indian vs. Indian, etc.

Case Study (I): Kuantan

In the 2004 general election, MCA’s Fu Ah Kiow carried Kuantan with a comfortable majority of 9,147 votes. He lost in 2008.

In GE12:

Fu obtained 16,572 votes (47%)

PKR’s Fuziah Salleh obtained 18,398 votes (52%)

Voter turnout: 35,593 (74.5%)

Majority: 1,826 votes

Spoilt votes: 623

Voter demography — Malay: 59.97%, Chinese: 35.93%, Indian: 3.88%, Others: 0.22%

Confronted with the choice between the PKR Malay and the MCA Chinese, the 60 percent Malay Kuantan electorate decided to abandon the BN ship. Kuantan was a BN seat held by Fu the MCA incumbent in 2004 and by Umno in the previous general election of 1999.

Note also that in Bandar Tun Razak, the 52.73 percent Malay electorate opted for PKR’s Malay candidate (Khalid Ibrahim) in favour of MCA’s Tan Chai Ho who failed to defend his seat despite being a two-term MP. In GE 2004, Tan won with a handy majority of 17,527  while in 1999, he had beaten Dr Chandra Muzaffar then representing Parti Keadilan.

This trend of Malay voters rejecting the MCA is indicated in the seats that the coalition lost in GE12, which besides Kuantan and Bandar Tun Razak, also include Bayan Baru held by Gerakan in 2004 and MCA in 1999.

The Umno whip is no longer assured of being able to compel its members to toe the BN line. Instead the generally pro-establishment Malay voters have displayed a willingness to drift away from MCA if the opposition puts up a Malay candidate.

Parliamentary seats lost by MCA

MCA defeated in 25 Parliamentary seats (table above).

Case Study (II): Alor Setar

Come GE13, the Umno Malay voters may abstain by simply choosing to stay home. Or they could cast their ballot for a fellow Malay-Muslim albeit the individual is a PAS or PKR opponent of BN.

Details below on the Alor Setar seat in which Minister for Housing and Local Government Chor Chee Heung scraped through by a wafer-thin margin.

In GE12:

Chor obtained 20,741 votes (48.0%)

PKR’s Gooi Hsiao Leung obtained 20,557 votes (47.6%)

Voter turnout: 43,055 (73.0%)

Majority: 184 votes

Spoilt votes: 1,757

Voter demography — Malay: 62.57%, Chinese: 32.95%, Indian: 4.16%, Others: 0.33%

Alor Setar could easily go to Pakatan with the slightest twitch factored on the following variables: A higher turnout compared with GE12’s lackadaisical 73 percent, a reduction in spoilt (most likely Mahathirist protest) votes, and a greater number of young or first-time electors making their way to the polling booth.

Is the YB Alor Setar a winnable candidate? Chor Chee Heung has been tainted with allusions of corruption levied by DAP Subang Jaya Adun Hannah Yeoh, for which a police report by MCA Kelana Jaya was lodged against her.

MCA in 6 states only and sliding

Of MCA’s 15 Parliamentary seats, seven of them are in Johor.

The party has zero Parliamentary seats in Penang and only one in Selangor, i.e. Pandan held by its past president Ong Tee Keat.

All of MCA’s Parliamentary seats are in the peninsular west coast. Unlike DAP, the MCA has no Parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak.

Table below: In the 1969 elections, MCA and DAP were even in their seat count, and as in 1978 too as well as 1990 when DAP had a good outing.

In the rest of the GE series, it is an inverse equation — if MCA was up, DAP was down and vice versa.

Star a BN health hazard

For the 2012/3 GE, the consensus is that DAP will reach its zenith. Hence if DAP is expected to be at the pinnacle of its electoral fortunes, then MCA will naturally hit rock bottom.

Indeed the party appears determined on going the way of the dinosaur.

Why is it that knowing how non-Chinese votes are pivotal to its survival, the MCA yet continues to allow its media to promote the DAP evangelical ethos that is perceived as a threat in religious rivalry by Malay-Muslims?

Why is it that we had to read the following factoid – “in the Budget 2013 BN had allocated RM100 million to all the Chinese school(s) in entire Malaysia compared to Pakatan Rakyat ZERO in the 2013 budget” – in The Mole and not in The Star?

In the more than 4-and-1/2 years since 8 March 2008, the position of MCA has not recovered but further eroded.


Out of MCA’s 11 ministers and deputies in the federal cabinet, three were appointed through the backdoor by becoming senators. Of the remaining elected eight, how many of them are shaky on their perches?

Chor Chee Heung has already been discussed in detail above; Kong Cho Ha won by a slim majority of 298; the unpopular Ng Yen Yen is in a mixed constituency with a slight Malay majority; Lee Chee Leong is in a 62.6 percent Chinese majority seat while Hou Kok Chung is in a 52.4 percent Chinese majority seat.

Gunting dalam Lipatan

MCA’s purported newspaper has been, without doubt, subtly undermining the party. The Star editorial floor – with the exception of a few senior editors – holds the BN leadership in barely concealed contempt and animosity.

Hence the covert sabotage of BN that we keeping encountering in The Star. It is not by accident that the paper has a total lack of political direction.

Without any effective channel of mass communication to influence opinions (The Star‘s sex and sleaze top stories cut no ice in political agenda setting), MCA has not been able to endear itself to Malay and Indian voters who do not engage in Chinese media.

It is such a sad spectacle to see MCA committing harakiri right before our eyes. Please read this article together with the precedingStar shows middle finger to Chuason why the paper has become an albatross around MCA’s neck.

Footnote:

Parliamentary seats won by DAP

Author:

I have no Faceook or Twitter.

38 thoughts on “Every seat counts but MCA dragging BN down (UPDATED)

  1. Helen,

    good reporting. those statistic & data sure took quite some time to prepare… don’t forget to feed cat and dog ya… :)

    I think apart from MCA’s own image tarnishing, DAPster also played a major role in putting more damage and made MCA look uglier hence it lost Malay vote. in those days, people vote for ‘dacing’ no matter who contest but now since the new media fully utilized by the DAPster, more and more younger malay voters (new media readers) got influenced.

    MCA should learn from DAPster on how to maximize new media utilization to win young voters support.

    Hello MCA, anyone there?

    1. Thanks. Dog and cat have dined. I haven’t tho’.

      Are other people’s cat as nocturnal as mine? He sleeps in the day but at night mesti keluar merayau. Plus he’s all black. So when he disappears into the night … lesap.

      I tried putting a flourescent yellow collar on him but he refuse to wear and slipped out of it after only a day.

      My dog is thankfully diurnal.

      1. welcome. aiya. gastric nanti.

        yup. kucing jantan macam tulah. bila sampai waktu mula marking kawasan dan keluar malam. bunyi pun lain macam. kucing memang tak suka pakai kolar. masa kecik kucing saya juga warna hitam, mata hijau nama di Jamaludin. :)
        _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

        Nama timangan kucing ‘Jem’ ke? Kucing saya ada girlfriend, jadi agaknya keluar malam-malam tu dating lah. — Helen

        1. ‘Jem’ lembut sangat…hehe kucing kaler hitam mmg macho, masa dia mati saya dalam darjah 2 kot, nangis sampai 2 hari. kuburkan dia belakang rumah, letak batu buat nisan. siap baca al Fatihah lagi.

          kucing kalau nak mengawan mmg tak duduk diam. kalau dah ada girlfriend kira ok lah. biarkan dia keluar. jangan disekat. kesian. :) kucing saya sekarang Boboi dah ada bini (muda), Adudu tapi masih nak keluar malam cari kucing jiran (dah tua). saya nak bagi dia keluar tapi my mrs kunci pintu. hehe

          1. “kucing kaler hitam mmg macho” :) Ada tak kucing warna hitam yang betina?

            Contohnya ciri semulajadi singa jantan, ia ada surai, singa betina takde.

            Kot-kot hanya kucing jantan aje yang berwarna hitam?

            Contoh satu lagi ciri binatang baghal (kacukan kuda dan kaldai) yang jarang sekali membiak — “chance of mule breeding is very slight”, sumber: Oxford Journals

          2. helen,

            kucing betina jiran saya tu kaler hitam la… Boboi tergoda juga dengan dia… kecantikan adalah subjektif. :)

  2. I am a Malay (well educated), voted for the opposition in 2008 and will not vote for them in the coming GE13, part of it is because of the above picture. If the picture were to be LGE’s I still could not accept such behaviour.

    It seems that the opposition had created “Unhumane Like” behaviour amongst the people of Malaysia. I think MCA may not get any advantages on the matter unless they could gather enough chinese votes but surely a loss on the side of PAS & PKR, the opposition.

    1. You are too kind to describe it as “Unhumane Like” behaviour.

      The consensus is that their CAT (Cocky-Arrogant-Tokong) boss is a ‘streetfighter’. Bapa borek, anak rintik.

      1. “Unhumane Like” Behaviour, I thought that was bad enough, Alhamdulillah I am not into politics (not a member of any political party).

        I would not call him a ‘streetfighter’ either, ‘streetfighters’ in the real world fights but still have some dignity, this one is in a different level altogether, the whole nation goes down he would not care, it shows during the debate with CSL.

        1. Daim Zainudin: On Gerakan president Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon, Daim said he was a gentleman, but needed to be a street fighter if he wanted to take on DAP (source: here).

          Tunku Aziz: State DAP chairman Chow Kon Yeow should have been chosen to lead the new state government as chief minister. He said Chow was not arrogant or a street fighter (source: here).

          Chua Soi Lek and Teng Hock Nan (Penang Barisan political affairs committee chief) have associated LGE with streetfighter style.

          To me, streetfighter connotes someone who uses knuckledusters when throwing a punch in the face of an unarmed opponent, hits below the belt and prefers to drag the battle into the gutter.

          1. Thanks, I know what you meant. But still it would be an insult to the streetfighters.

    2. ”Gabriel Al Iman,I am a Malay (well educated), voted for the opposition in 2008 and will not vote for them in the coming GE13,”

      Wakaka , apa pun temberang. adik pedang kontot. Hahahaha

      Bankrupt punya cover Ahbeng mana ni yang nak temberang …………….

      1. Wa ada Phd lagi, “well educated” bukan wa nak menunjuk tapi nak kasi tau the type of person that will not vote for PR sebab menghasilkan manusia berperangai beruk. Wa punya BSc in Macromolecular Engineering lagi babe, sure kpee tak tau apa benda nya kot, mungkin nak sebut pun tak panadai, tak apa sebab kejayaan bukan Ijazah tapi jadi manusia bukan haiwan PR.

  3. One, this is a great insightful article.

    Personally, what differentiate BN and PR is the sense of setiakawan & brotherhood. This is the time when race doesn’t matter but the brand shall be speaking for itself. This is the time when BN must walk the talk and not let an indifferent sector cloud their mind in fielding a candidate under their brand.

    BN must be honest in admitting that even though they’re not perfect but they’re working hard to ensure that no particular race be sidelined or ostracized just because they chose the oppo. Being genuine, apologizing for past mistakes but ensuring rectifications will take place and letting their sincerity to shine through will heal some wounds.

    DAP is good in manipulating the fears and enhance the insecurity the chinese populations are feeling but Malaysian chinese are different; they’re nothing like the chinese in PRC nor Singapore – years of assimilations with the other races have made them very different.

    That’s an issue BN needs to address -as well as the Indian community. BN needs to soothe our Indian & Chinese brothers & sisters that they(BN) have their back when everything falls apart.

    So what with renegade paper wrt The Star or online trash MKini – address any issue promptly and you’ll see a different attitude.

    From my observation, the chinese or the indians are no different from the malays; we need to be a little bit respectful in order to get respect.

    Would I, a malay be voting an MCA candidates in my area? Absolutely, as I believe in the brand.

    1. But the MCA itself had not done anything to warrant UMNO’s continued allegiance with the former. Granted, the Chinese ought not be sidelined in the post-GE13 cabinet. But the void ought to be filled by politically non-aligned Chinese professionals for reasons that the MCA had effectively committed political suicide.

  4. Walau apa pun Helen, kemurahan hati Melayu amat menonjol di dalam tindakan mngundi bukan bangsanya..

    Tetapi adakah Melayu sekarang mempunyai sifat & sikap yg sama? Yg jelas aku sudah berubah..

    1. MCA kena kembali menjadi ‘neutral’ atau tidak mengambil side dalam isu-isu keistimewaan melayu dan pribumi. barulah imejnya kembali pulih di kalangan pengundi melayu baru/muda. orang-orang lama takpalah, mereka mengundi ‘dacing’ bukan wakil.

      1. MCA mesti berwaspada tidak terikut-ikut akan politik evangelisme DAP. Dalam perkara inilah The Star menjadi senjata yang memakan tuannya.

        1. The Star bukan sekadar gunting dalam lipatan & senjata makan tuan. The Star akan menjerumuskan MCA ke dalam longkang politik tanahair. Asal dapat jual akhbar, biarlah masuk longkang…

  5. helen ..mereka kata umno jadi abang besar pembuli dalam bn …kawasan majoriti melayu pun umno boleh bagi ke mca …belum kira bagi ke mic lg tu …

    1. Betul tapi mengikut analisisa Hindraf, tiada satu-satunya kawasan majoriti India walaupun jumlah penduduk India 7.33 peratus. Jadi formula BN memanglah berkongsi kerusi.

      Faktor kedua ialah ‘weightage’ (kelebihan diberi kepada), yakni di kawasan luar bandar, satu kerusi tetapi jumlah pemilih kecil manakala di kawasan bandar, satu kerusi tetapi jumlah pemilih besar.

      Faktor ketiga ialah ketidakseimbangan dan gerrymandering: Putrajaya mempunyai 6,008 orang pemilih berdaftar; Kapar ada 112,224.

      Faktor-faktor ini lebih menguntungkan parti pemerintah (Umno).

      null

      1. You should educate yourself with this video:

        Watch till the end and you will see a method of ‘gerrymandering to avoid the problems of gerrymandering’.

        Check out the other videos by CGP Grey. You can learn a lot about how the problems of democracy can be fixed.

  6. Why are we still talking about the MCA ? Are they still relevant ? we have to be honest with ourselves, that party is already irrelevant.

    1. I know this may sound cliche but, it was, is and will be pertinent point for BN to capture the heart & mind of Malaysian.

      Whenever one/many component party having a hard time, the strongest (UMNO) will always find ways to assist and revive them, they will be helped in any ways (less crook ways mind you).

  7. Helen,

    “Faktor kedua ialah ‘weightage’ (kelebihan diberi kepada), yakni di kawasan luar bandar, satu kerusi tetapi jumlah pemilih kecil manakala di kawasan bandar, satu kerusi tetapi jumlah pemilih besar.”

    Komen:

    kalau nak samakan bilangan pengundi per Adun/MP….bilangan pengundi di 3 daerah di Pahang mungkin bersamaan dengan bilangan pengundi di satu kawasan parlimen di KL! wow macam mana seorang wakil rakyat nak beri khidmat bagi kawasan seluas tiga daerah!

    1. You’ve made a fair point.

      Di Pahang, kawasan daerah luas. Di KL, penduduk padat.

      Saya pun pernah memblog (6 Apr 2012):

      “DAPster berdengki apabila DUN luar bandar dititikberatkan dari segi nisbah Pemilih:Adun. Apakah orang bandar tidak memiliki kelebihan-kelebihan dari segi lain?”

      “Suara orang Subang Jaya (ataupun suara orang Damansara Utama yang 83 peratus pemilih Cina) sebenarnya berkali-kali lebih lantang kedengaran berbanding dengan suara penghuni luar bandar.”

      “Adun Subang Jaya disebut Selangor Times dalam 56 rencana; carian untuk ‘Subang Jaya’ pula membuahkan hasil keputusan 296 rencana.

      Carian untuk ‘Paya Jaras’ (2 rencana sahaja di Selangor Times), ‘Dusun Tua’ (4) dan Tanjung Sepat (5). Subang Jaya (296) ialah satu kawasan DUN. Ketiga-tiga Paya Jaras, Dusun Tua dan Tanjung Sepat pun masing-masing kawasan DUN.

      Selangor Times terus pekak kepada pemilih-pemilih ‘bisu’ Sungai Air Tawar, Sabak, Hulu Bernam, Batang Kali, Kuang, Permatang, Semenyih and Paya Jaras.

      Untuk kajian selanjutnya, cuba kita lihat kepada 10 orang Yang Berhormat BN yang disebut dalam 14 rencana (seorang satu dua rencana) Selangor Times.

      Kalau dibuat, katakanlah, satu ukuran akoustik, suara Hannah Yeoh bagi Subang Jaya ialah 56 decibel manakala suara 10 orang Adun Umno Selangor (termasuk seorang MCA) dicampurkan semua sekali hanya 14 decibel.”

      Kesimpulannya suara evangelis DAP teramat lantang dan perangai mereka, fuyoh, agresif.

      1. Kak Helen,

        suara Hannah Yoeh saja sekuat 56 dB…tidak jejaskan telinga… tetapi kalau dicampurkan dengan suara Ngeh dan Kim sekeluarga, jumlahnya melebihi 120 dB yakni satu pencemaran bunyi…boleh sebabkan hilang pendengaran, gitu. Untuk elakkan pencemaran bunyi, pekakkan telinga?

    2. Tambah sikit: Suruhanraya Reid mengesyorkan supaya perbezaan di antara pemilih bandar dan luar bandar walaupun diberikan weightage tetapi sebaik-baiknya jangan melebihi 15 peratus.

  8. kak helen ..terima kasih sudi membalas …pada saya mca still relevan ..cuma pendekatan mereka terutama selepas pasca pru 12 perlu diperjelaskan ..kemana halatuju mereka … tapi selagi mereka sibuk berperang sesama sendiri susahlah …

  9. Helen,

    “sekali air bah sekali pantai berubah”. Aptly said to show that people change.

    The problem with MCA is that it takes an easy way out by not being proactive in tackling DAP. MCA is not firm enough in telling the chinese point blank that they alone cant dictate politics in Malaysia.

    Or more importantly MCA never tells the Chinese that just likes other races, they too have to accomodate. DAP’s version of Chinese rights may be suitable if Chinese say comprises 90% of population.

    MCA did blame UMNO for its bad performance in the last election. So did MIC, Gerakan. I found that funny. Only MCA is lucky that UMNO is ever benign supremo.

    Actually the reverse is the truth. Had not for UMNO, I can confidently say that MCA is best suited as a museum relic of bygone era. It is the association with UMNO that enable MCA to earn the Malay votes.

    As for Gerakan, it has to point blank tell the Chinese in Penang that it is not subservient to UMNO. UMNO simply has more influence than Gerakan in Penang. Check the lists of ADUN in Penang. Had not for UMNO, there will not be any BN ADUN in that state.

    DAPs plays the Chinese mind by saying that UMNO is overlording Gerakan. The simple logis is only a moronic politician would want to alienate 40% of the population. Such high percentage makes any community worth respect and attention.

    Until today the majority of Chinese fails to recognise UMNO’s position among the Malays. UMNO’s hold the dominant position simply because it has the largest share of the biggest racial group:the Malays.

    No need to have PHd in Nuclear science to understand this. As such, its dominance comes naturally. And it is relected by UMNO winning more than half of BN seats.

    Malays too are changing. Nowadays it is harder for MCA to win in Malay areas. Why must we put a Chinese from a party that tacitly recognising DAP’s way as our representative? Cases of Kuantan, Lunas, Bandar Tun Razak, Pasir Panjang, Kota raja, Teluk Kemang are manifastations of disillusioned Malays who feel their uniques time tested humility in sharing the power is maligned.

    If I were to be Dr Chua, I would be dead worried. I have not been able to penetrate Chinese areas as ( MCA seems to have “soft spot” for DAP), now I am losing the Malay support, the only life line that makes MCA relevant.

    MCA must understand that if Malays feel that it has not done enough to communicate with the Chinese, then automatically MCA is deemed as irrelevant.
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    If I were Dr Chua, I’d pay attention to curbing ‘The Star’s backstabbing before the other BN component parties reach the end of their tether. — Helen

    1. Helen,

      Precisely. for reasons best known to Dr Chua, he still refuse to see the need for a new editor for STAR.

  10. Helen, the “censored” version of this article has made it to today’s edition of The Malay Mail. He he he !

    1. OIC. The Mole reproduced what I said about Si Gunting.

      Di MM reproduce the Scissors bit or the MCA Parliament seats bit?

  11. The MM version did not produce the Scissors bit. But what did you expect from Terrence Fernandez ? He’s Anglo boy, they have to look after their own kind. He he he !
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    OK, thanks. — Helen

  12. Most of the articles reproduced by The MM from around the blogosphere are censored according to the intensity of the content. I would normally go to the blogs to read the original version of the articles after I read the censored ones.

    They talk about freedom of speech, they talk about the mainstream media being biased, yet their people control a significant part of the said media and when articles found in Malaysiakini are reproduced in The MM, they are reproduced almost in their entirety. They cry wolf all the time.
    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Yes, they have a greater influence on English cyberspace and the narrative (probably b’cos foreign correspondents don’t read in BM) filtered to the outside world. Also b’cos they’re more licik. — Helen

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