Posted in DAP

Johor BN bracing for loss of Chinese seats

MCA is moderately safe only in 7-8 Parliament seats, according to intelligence. Yup, only in the Malay-majority areas.

It is expected to take a knocking in Johor where the DAP tidal wave has swept ashore. The recent slap in the face for Chua Soi Lek in his home state – represented by the Chinese walkout at the Kulai mega dinner  – is a harbinger of the painful snub to come.

In minutes 0:25-0:35 and 1:05-1:20 of the video clip, many diners having done with the MCA ‘free’ food can be seen (at the back of the picture frame) leaving the venue when Dr Chua is delivering his speech.

DAP hungry for more

Let’s first look at some tabulated headcount (table below). In GE12, MCA received 840,489 votes compared to 1,118,025 for DAP.

Former head of the MCA research unit Stanley Koh reveals that MCA had claimed it was going into the GE12 polling day with 1,300,000 members. (Guess MCA forgot to dust its dinos from their museum showcases.)

However even if every single one of the 840,489 ballots was cast for MCA by party members, it still meant that roughly 460,000 MCA members – if we accept the 1.3 million membership roll – did not bother to vote on 8 March 2008.

But we know that the 840,489 votes did not all come from the purported MCA vote bank. They derive in part from Malays and Indians. Just as we know that the 1.12 million votes for DAP came from Chinese as all its Parliament seats were won in Chinese-majority areas (see footnote).

DAP beachhead in Johor

DAP managed to wrest Bakri from MCA the last election. DAP will retain this Johor parliament seat in GE13.

Johor DAP chief Dr Boo Cheng Hau holds the Skudai state seat. Skudai is in the Gelang Patah parliamentary constituency. Dr Boo might move from state to parliament here.

Comparing the 2004 with the 2008 results, the votes for MCA in Gelang Patah shrunk by about a quarter while the votes for the opposition increased three-fold. Given its large Chinese electorate of roughly 55 percent, DAP is confident of wresting this seat.

Johor: MCA’s last redoubt

One factor mitigating against the DAP onslaught on Johor is the lure of development in the form of the Iskandar Economic Region, the southern corridor and the Singapore spillover effect. But still, the Chinese amok mood seems implacable.

The Kluang parliamentary seat has a large Chinese voter segment similar to Gelang Patah — between 52 and 54 percent. While MCA won it comfortably in 2004 with a majority of 18,698, in 2008 it only managed a hugely reduced majority of 3,781. The DAP candidate, Ng Lam Hua in both GE editions, gained some 10,000 additional votes in 2008 from 2004.

Kulai – where Dr Chua was slighted at the mega dinner – is currently held by MCA past president Ong Ka Ting and has approximately 60 percent Chinese voters.

Johor is quite a happy camping ground for the MCA presidents: Lee San Choon (ex-Segamat Selatan MP), Neo Yee Pan (ex-Muar MP) and Ling Liong Sik (ex-Labis MP).

Labis is a mixed seat won by Dr Chua in 2004 and by his son Tee Yong in 2008. It’s a seat that the MCA cannot afford to lose lest such a loss signals a complete rout. Although optimistic, DAP is not banking on Labis as a certainty. Chua Jr (on whom my bloggers friends gave positive reviews when they went to the ground to cover the Tenang by-election) is fairly likely to live another day.

Tanjong Piai is interesting for its racial breakdown: Malay 50 percent, Chinese 49 percent, and its voter ethnic balance promising to be a litmus test.

The table above shows that most of the MCA Parliament seats were won in Malay-majority areas.

In fact, many of the MCA wards are so Malay tinged that the MCA faced off two PAS candidates in Ayer Itam and in Tebrau. Both the wins over PAS (Husin Sujak, Roslani Sharif) were in the BN bedrock of Johor.

In 6 other seats, MCA also beat Malay candidates — PKR’s Suwardi Sapuan, Azman Marjohan, Syed Shahir, Zaliha Mustafa, and DAP’s Ahmad Ton and Abu Bakar Sudin.

All in all, out of MCA’s 15 Parliamentary seats, 9 were obtained through defeating Malay and Indian opponents. Similarly, out of MCA’s 15 Parliamentary seats, 9 are Malay-majority wards.

Sense & sensibility, Sex & stability

‘Stability above Chaos’ (要穩定,不要亂) was the MCA theme at its AGM and introduced in its current series of mega dinners.

However, instead of taking the MCA ‘Stability’ message to its 1.29 million readership, The Star chose instead to splash ‘Sex sells’ by featuring bloggers Alvin and Vivian on its front pages as well as devoting at least two dozen stories to the sex partner-swapping couple, thus totally eclipsing the concurrent MCA proceedings.

It was a subtle act of sabotage by The Star against MCA.

Although the slogan simply sounds dinosaur-ish to first-time voters, the rationale behind ‘[reject] Chaos’ might make sense to older Malaysians and those who think having madu tiga (three Deputy Prime Ministers) will create unnecessary havoc.

‘Buy Star, read Rocket’

DAP has been actively registering young Chinese to vote whereas MCA has not. DAP has been hyperactive in the social media whereas the MCA old guard are still watching RTM news on their black-and-white TV sets.

MCA’s appeal of “wanting stability, don’t want chaos” is probably attuned to the racial tremors anticipated to arise during the Tanda Putera cinema run.

Nonetheless the MCA approach, alleged by its rivals to be scaremongering, may backfire among the defiant Chinese youth if what we saw the last round – ‘Facebook fury over May 13 film’ – provides any indication.

The DAPster generation are not fearful of hudud nor the Islamic state ‘bogey’.

Campaigns are normally fought on the 3’M’s-election complex: Money, Machinery, Media.

MCA has introduced a new twist to the ‘M’ equation — Magnanimity. The party is magnanimously spending money on its bipolar media machinery which surreptitiously promotes DAP. In allowing this, MCA is tacitly condoning The Star media campaign to cap the BN’s Johor citadel with a steeple*.

* steeple = church architecture of tower topped by spire

Bersambung /Continues:

Gangnam stail: MCA tabur wang merata-rata bagi meraih sokongan

FOOTNOTE:
DAP victories in almost mono-racial Parliament seats:
  • Chong Chieng Jen — Kuching  (91% Chinese voters)
  • Tan Seng Giaw — Kepong  (90%)
  • Teresa Kok  — Seputeh (90%)
  • Chow Kon Yeow  — Tanjong (85%)
  • Tan Kok Wai — Cheras  (84%)
  • Lim Kit Siang  — Ipoh Timor (81%)
DAP Parliamentarians in 75-80 percent Chinese electorate seats
  • Fong Po Kuan — Batu Gajah
  • Tony Pua  — Petaling Jaya Utara
  • Hiew King Chiew — Kota Kinabalu
  • Fong Kui Lun — Bukit Bintang
DAP Parliamentarians in 70-75 percent Chinese electorate seats (coincidentally all in Penang)
  • Lim Guan Eng — Bagan
  • Chong Eng — Bukit Mertajam
  • Liew Chin Tong — Bukit Bendera
  • Karpal Singh – Bukit Gelugor

Author:

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23 thoughts on “Johor BN bracing for loss of Chinese seats

  1. MCA is still comfortable with their post-2004 election attitude. A lot had happened since 8 years ago.

  2. Good analyst friend! But are they MCA’s listening us?
    DAP propagate themself better than MCA even they are more cocky, arrogant and ‘tipu’. Common MCA wake-up and show your roar!

    Anyway, MCA have a ‘good weapon’ and DAP will shock about it! hehehe

  3. MCA as a party still relevant and accepted by Chinese but they only ‘reject’ the leader CSL with video scandal. The leader should lead by example , we believed , Chinese also don’t want Anuar to be lead them as Country Leader. BN still can win the next GE13.

    We still support BN to bring Malaysia to vision 2020

    1. I would subscribe to your point. My observation is BN can still win the election. I think BN has got the legal and that illegal advantage, so to speak.

      I have a different view on vision 2020. I don’t like it because it breeds so much corruption. It is too clear for everyone to see.

      Is it possible that PKR can be more corrupted? I don’t know. And I would agree with HY that even if we can change the government, perjuangan akan tetap di teruskan.

      Revolution, yes? I say No. Because it is not Islamic. Will Sandy or Irene come to give our country a good clean up one day? I don’t know. God works in a mysterious way.

  4. the snub by the Chinese should serve as a harbinger of things to come. they snub the MCA not because CSL is the leader of the MCA. they snub the MCA because, for a significant majority of the Chinese population, they have come to see themselves as to have outgrown the other races of this country.

    10, 20 years ago, they would have thought about it carefully before they do anything like snubbing the MCA, or to hurl abuse at the Malays or UMNO in such an open manner. thanks to DAP’s Taiwan style politics, things have changed considerably.

    to say that the DAP has misled the Chinese, to say that the DAP has turned the Chinese into becoming anti this anti that is also misleading. the fact is, the Chinese have always been like this. but with the DAP’s brand of politics, they now have a platform, to bring to the surface such virulent strain of politics.

    I still believe that BN will win the 13th GE, but not with a 2/3 majority. the question is, after the 13th GE, will UMNO and the other component parties of the BN continue to accommodate the Chinese politically, economically, socially etc ?

    1. I concur. The chinese behavior has always been like this. Just read Helen and her unwillingness to admit her mistakes. It’s obvious recalcitrance and defiance is at the core of the Chinese ethos.

      The only time the Chinese exhibit docility is when they are managed or ruled by a White person. They have strong beliefs in racial hierarchy and fortunately they have not graduated to the top spot, even in their own eyes.

    2. Bn should remember chinese is chinese, in front of us they said we are good, behind us they support their own people, so stop supporting the chinese they are good actor or actoress, dont be a begger for then to vote bn. we will see this coming election at gelang patah where majority are chinese. if they support dap, let dap build that place whithout a helping hand from bn, so let it be, let then suffer

  5. Helen contended that blacks in the US voted for Obama because he is black. I think the chinese are also prone to vote based on race, just like the blacks in America.

    By Helen’s own reckoning, Malay majority areas voted for MCA candidates despite the opposition fielding a Malay candidate. This shows a large proportion of Malay voters appear to be willing to cross racial boundaries in order to vote for their favored political coalition.

    The chinese, on the other hand, now appear to be strongly misled by DAP propaganda and are rallying behind the party they feel strongly reflect the chinese cause. Notice I maintain that it is a ‘chinese cause’, not a ‘christian cause’, unlike what Helen’s blog tries to create as a narrative.

    How to account for this shift? What are the chinese so unhappy about? Are they so greedy that money is not enough, they want all the power, too?

    Helen, you should break down the chinese voters based on religious affiliation, if you want to convince your readers.

    I have lived in S. Korea. I know how Buddhism fell to the wayside as christian beliefs took prominence. Most S. Koreans are sympathetic to christian beliefs. Some even hold both sets of beliefs at the same time. I am sure buddhists in Malaysia are also sympathetic to the christians and accommodate their beliefs into their own.

    Therefore, the issue at play is obviously chinese chauvinism. It is the sole overwhelming force that is to account for DAP’s recent rise.

  6. I think one (those I perceive as highly educated and intelligence) are not supposed to scrutinize Chinese bias and racism without scrutinizing those at the top spot, or second and third or whatever spots that is much higher than the Chinese, which bias and racism in operation are not limited to individual but institutional. That’s operating on a double-standard.

    1. You must be feeling disappointed that an academic (a chinese academic, no less) has exposed the latent malaysian discrimination you and others were so willing to gloss over for years, if not decades.

      I don’t know if you or Helen read carefully all the articles reporting on the Lee Hwok Aun and Muhammad Abdul Khalid study.

      You should have defended yourself by highlighting the following, as reported by the Edge and many other sites:

      ..the preference for Chinese candidates is pretty much across the board, whether the company doing the advertising is Chinese controlled, foreign controlled, or (astonishingly) Malay controlled.

      In fact, according to some reports that refer to the study, Chinese controlled companies were more likely than Malay companies to callback a Malay candidate, though both purportedly favor Chinese candidates more than the Malay candidates by a large margin.

      I have known many non-chinese (indians also!) who would avoid chinese controlled companies. I, for one, welcomed an opportunity to work in a chinese controlled company, back in the day, and I got a 50+% pay raise from it.

      Unfortunately, my time inside a chinese-controlled company was short. I saw they used my position to bid for government jobs. In the end, they overlooked me for promotion.

      Perhaps the other non-Chinese knew the ‘glass ceiling’ that exists in most chinese-controlled organisations. They knew they wouldn’t get the chance to reach mid-management, let alone upper!

      Such chinese controlled organisations have strict yet unwritten succession policies. ANd, they sometimes install a ‘puppet’ or ‘token’ general manager or director to give unsuspecting government officials the impression they are ‘bumi-compliant’.

      I think it’s about time Malaysia introduced an Equal Opportunity act!

      1. OB, nope, my stance is always you can’t solve a problem until you’ve acknowledged/recognized its existence, and find ways to gauge the scope of the problem.

        The trouble with you is that neither I nor Helen denies the existence of racial issue, I don’t know you have problem to understand what we talking about or you are substituting straw men here, or you want to justify our government racial policies, whatever.

        I am against racism, bias and prejudice, but that doesn’t mean I am not racist, bias and prejudice, I am not saying Chinese is not racist, bias and prejudice but somehow I find the statement that Chinese are more racist or Malay is more racist is an indulged of blame game, not helping at all.

        1. If you don’t deny the existence of a racial issue, then I want you/Helen to admit there is racial discrimination.

          Remember, in logic, not denying existence of A doesn’t mean admitting existence of A. In other words. I don’t deny the existence of Aliens, but I don’t confirm aliens exist either.

          If you are an unemployed malay male who keeps on getting rejected, who do you think his anger will be directed against?

          Even though the study has shown that ‘malay’ companies discriminate against malays, it is quite logical to assume that the unemployed malay would put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the chinese.

          Also since you are in the mood for admitting things, especially with respect to racial discrimination, then you should admit that NEP or a form of racial affirmative action IS required to adjust for inequity. I want you and Helen to admit that affirmative action is necessary. That’s all.

          Many say that racial quotas and affirmative action has been relaxed or less enforced now that it was a decade or so ago. Despite that, the chinese are not showing positive attitudes towards malays, in fact the malays are targeted even further.

          I say we go to a harsher quota system.

          1. “I say we go to a harsher quota system.”

            who prelude u from doing so? not me n helen. admit or no admit, nep is here for more than 40 years. btw, show me any of my statement i am against nep.

          2. Why is it that your statements are always about ‘proving a negative’?

            You state you are ‘not against’ NEP. Why do you twist your words into a negative statement. State positively you are FOR NEP.

            You say you don’t deny racism exists. Then confirm that racism exists.

            People like to perpetuate the stereotype that indians are good at twisting words. But I think the chinese can wrest the crown away from them.

          3. I have to admit that I lack your fantastic talent to see everything through the prism of absolutism, and again I admit unlike you, I failed in demonstrating an intellect that is incapable of grasping the deliberate ambiguity of a moderated gradualism in societies, and assert in ecstasy and excitement that I am all for NEP. We are just different.

  7. Helen Ang,

    MCA despite its effort to woo chinese often plays the bridesmaid role to DAP.

    To say that MCA does not try to attract the Chinese is misleading. However, I believe MCA could have done better.

    The main problem is that MCA does not try to make Chinese understand that Chinese is not only the sole decisive factor in Malaysian election.

    Meaning MCA must tell the chinese that they have no choice but to ensure fair number of Chinese politicians in BN win in order to make their voices heard. All along Chinese believe that no matter how badly they treat MCA, they are assured of chinese representative in Cabinet.

    This is where UMNO plays a crucial part. No need to be apologetic. Only the communities that support BN should be appointed in Cabinet. It will serve as a lesson that Chinese must support MCA to enable MCA to be in Cabinet. Why on earth appoint Ministers from MCA and Gerakan should Chinese reject these parties.

    And as I said ,any times, DAP is leading the Chinese to collide with the Malays literally. DAP incites the Chinese that the way forward is hostility against Malays.

    1. Shamshul,

      Agree.

      If the present situation (i.e. Chinese treating MCA like at the Kulai dinner) is allowed to continue, there’s no checking DAPsterism.

  8. Helen,

    As for UMNO, please ensure that MCA, Gerakan only compete in Chinese majority areas. So areas like Kuantan, Bandar Tun Razak, Grik, must be contested by UMNO.

    To earn the respect, MCA must win in Chinese areas. Meaning MCA fight DAP in all Chinese areas. It will shed the image of MCA being “spoonfed” by UMNO.

    It will force the Chinese to think twice before rejecting UMNO’s generosity as they(chinese) will be eventually the loser if they are not represented in Cabinet. It is time the chinese learn that it takes two to tango. It is time Chinese must realise that they simply can not blackmail to get what they want.

  9. Argument is the most fundamental reasoning for critical thinking.
    An argument is whose truth the argument attempts to establish which are supposed to lead to, or support, or convince that the conclusion is true.

    Then is the argument subjective or objective? Subjective because we are so cock sure of ourself, and instantly it becomes what has to be objective because we can google and find what transpires around the world to support notions to defend a stance when empirically it has failed in our own country in the present day based on the fabric of the nation with the introduction of policies for majority race based affirmative system that has been totally abused and misused. The fault lies in every segment of the community.

    Subjectively for each and one of us, the country is in the state it is because we continue to argue to convince or persuade since 2008 to achieve a personal solution (maybe based on race, religion or creed) without allowing any room to exchange genuine arguments on a basis of humanity to stop the deterioration of the nation irrespective of the origin. Arguing about policies that we ourselves condoned to when it fitted well has today turned into a double edged sword.

    Many of the arguments in Helen’s blog has been colorful more so in my view a personal escapism. There is nothing wrong with escapism, but this escapism should not morph into thinking that our own subjectivity will create the desired result. It does not work that way. Objectivity is only possible when whatever arguments that we put forward thinking that it will augur well for the community means nothing unless and until we stop thinking along the bracket of race, religion but more so of being a Malaysian. How do you become a Malaysian? Think of me, me and only me.

  10. HY, you say

    “you I have to admit that I lack your fantastic talent to see everything through the prism of absolutism, and again I admit unlike you, I failed in demonstrating an intellect that is incapable of grasping the deliberate ambiguity of a moderated gradualism in societies, and assert in ecstasy and excitement that I am all for NEP. We are just different”.

    You must be joking,!!! OB is nothing but a self indulged Malaysian who did nothing but only what served him/her well. I think that is self evidence.

    Today he/she finds a platform for his/her escapism, nothing more or nothing less. He is is not the change that you seek if you are able to contribute for the masses. You find many like OB, can always talk cock for themselves without any semblance to what the society represents. They are not interested in the truth and reality unless and until it serves them well.

    HY, you must be a fool to decepted with self praised fools like OB.

  11. Looks like the wind has been taken out of your sails?
    Weren’t you very vehement in attacking the opposition on behalf of your political masters?
    It’s far too late to realise that you have been fighting for an unjust cause and dispensing all sorts of misinformation to mislead the people!
    Your day of judgement is well nigh!
    So’s the same with all those so-call cybertroopers!!!

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