Updated 26 Nov 2014:
Note that I had originally written the article below two years ago on 24 Nov 2012, before GE13. My headliner question was: Will DAP get the Chinese votes in Obamic proportions?
Barack Obama twice won the American presidential elections by acing his race calculations, i.e. he managed to sapu bersih the black votes at a time when the majority white votes were split 40-60, and he did well also among the Asian and Hispanic minority voters.
The DAP is employing the same strategy as Obama in trying to collect all the various minority support whereas the Malay vote is split.
Parallel with the USA
While Umno has a 60-40 edge among the majority Malay voters, the DAP sapu bersih the Chinese votes while doing well among the Christian and Indian electorate too. (Note: Najib tidak menepati janjinya yang diberikan kepada Hindraf.)
The evangelista party is moving fast, converging on the Sabah and Sarawak interior. Native voters agitated by talk of secession are vulnerable prey.
Najib all ears for uber evangelista Wong Chun Wai
Recently on 4 Nov 2014, the United States held its midterm elections. The Republican party which is largely supported by the whites, recovered control of the Senate from Obama’s Democratic Party as well as expanded their control of the House of Representatives.
One parallel between the Malaysian and American situations is that only a very small number of blacks will vote the Republican party and only a very small number of Chinese will vote the BN.
Najib is wrong
Nothing Najib Razak can do will get the Chinese voters to swing back.
And from the very first Malayan general election of 1955, the Chinese were never ever staunch supporters of the BN anyway. Not even in 2004 (results chart here) when the BN won with a landslide.
Hence Najib is wrong to say that “Chinese support is crucial” – see The J-Star report below two days ago.
Chinese support for BN already hit rock bottom with the tsunami. Yet BN is still sitting in Putrajaya. Umno can rule without any Chinese cooperation – see pie chart above on the ethnic composition of BN Perak in the state assembly.
Perak is doing fine without Chinese participation, with the exception one Adun.
Johor too. The BN fortress has 3 Chinese Aduns to 35 Malay and Indian Aduns. This is what the Chinese want, what they chose and what they voted for in GE13. Najib must learn to respect the outcome of the democratic process.
Cina mahu kuburkan Umno tapi Najib masih tak faham-faham
Umno is standing on two feet despite being hit by all that the ABU Chinese could muster – “ini kali lah”. So why in the world does Najib think that the BN would need any Chinese support in future?
How much more Chinese support can BN further lose from what it has left? Chinese like me who voted BN in GE13 are not going to be switching our vote to DAP or Pakatan in GE14.
And only 11 percent Chinese voted BN after all. How “crucial” is that?
Najib is wrong to say “Chinese support crucial”. The truth of the matter is that Chinese support is no longer a factor in the BN calculus.
Umno taking back the Malay-majority seats lost by MCA in GE13 such as Alor Setar, Alor Gajah, Bandar Tun Razak, Padang Serai, Lumut and Raub is a surer bet than worrying whether Chinese voter support will drop to 9 percent or if BN is lucky, perhaps increase to 13 percent.
Being such a lousy strategist makes Najib a poor war general. It is a suicidal leader who does not know his own terrain but instead prefers to rely on foreign consultants.
CLUELESS: Sheesh, how could Ah Jib Gor have believed that they “love PM” …
Like Republicans, BN voters labelled “racist”, “stupid”
Yup, that was what the J-Star acting editor had once implied … i.e. In Malaysia, there is [a wicked unnamed] political party that does not believe in “educating and empowering its people”.
This unnamed political party – which is rejected by the evangelista paper’s acting chief (briefly in charge at the material time) – is accused of “keeping them [the rakyat] stupid and poor in order to control them and making them dependent forever.”
And pray tell, why has Najib allowed the EvangeliSTAR to hijack the “Moderation” concept and permitting the DAP evangelistas to determine who are the moderates?
Due to Najib failing abysmally to get a grip, his own BN camp is being daily portrayed as “extremists”, “bigots” and “haters”.
In this, the BN should learn from the Republicans whose own voters are similarly slandered racist and stupid by their political opponents and the Democrat party supporters.
Dah lah dua kali ditipu nak juga dengan cakap presiden MCA
But never mind.
“Racist and stupid” the Republicans might be alleged to be but nonetheless, the bottomline remains that they won. Earlier this month in the American midterm elections, the Republicans pummeled Obama’s “Change” campaign.
After losing the presidential elections in 2008 and 2012, the Republicans learned their lesson. Najib, on the other hand, shows no sign of having learned his even though the clock is fast ticking.
‘Mike Rowe answers liberal challenge to explain why he votes Republican‘ (Rare America’s News Feed, 25 Nov 2014)
‘Condi Rice on Dem Racism Charges‘ (Real Clear Politics, 6 Nov 2014)
‘Without stupid people Republicans would go extinct‘ (Politics USA, 1 Nov 2014)
Original posting and title
Will DAP get the Chinese votes in Obamic proportions?
Not only did the blacks vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, they also came out in full force. Compared to black, the white turnout was lukewarm.
Ethnic breakdown USA:
- White — 79.96 percent
- Black — 12.85 percent
- Asian — 4.43 percent
- Amerindian and Alaska native — 0.97 percent
- native Hawaiian and other Pacific islander — 0.18 percent
- biracial/mixed — 1.61 percent
(Source: Index Mundi)
Note: A separate listing for Hispanic is not included because the US Census Bureau considers Hispanic to mean persons of Spanish/Hispanic/Latino origin including those of Mexican, Cuban, Puerto Rican, Dominican Republic, Spanish, and Central or South American origin living in the US who may be of any race or ethnic group (white, black, Asian, etc.); about 15.1% of the total US population is Hispanic
To round the figures, whites are 80 percent of the American population and blacks 13 percent.
According to the CNN exit poll, Obama got 39 percent of the white votes and Romney 59 percent. Yet Obama – who obtained 4 out of 10 white persons’ support as opposed to Romney’s 6 out of 10 – still managed to win the election.
An explanation to the phenomenon (i.e. coming second in terms of support from majority race but still prevailing) lies in how the turnout pie was sliced, in addition to the way the US electoral college system bundles the votes state by state.
From the total pool – i.e. the Americans who took the trouble to show up at the polling booth and queue up for hours to cast their ballot – the whites made up 72 percent, blacks 13 percent and Hispanics 10 percent of the votes.
Recall that 80 percent of the American population is white and 13 percent black.
Blacks make up 13 percent of the American population and 13 percent of those who voted on Nov 6.
Whites make up 80 percent of the American population and 72 percent of those who voted on Nov 6.
(It is unfortunate that the US population census does not record the Latinos as a distinct category as this omission complicates our comparison between ethnic and electorate demography.)
Nonetheless a broad trend can be discerned:
(a) According to national exit polls, participation among whites shrank compared to 2008.
“the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.” (‘The Case of the Missing White Voters‘, RealClearPolitics)
Does the Obama ‘Change’ tagline ring a bell?
(b) Black support for Obama in 2012 was as sky high as in 2008, and bearing in mind that four years ago the black turnout broke all records due to the novelty of the Obama factor. In 2008, black women had the highest turnout rate of all groups. “Black women made up 60 percent of the black vote this year (2012) and voted 95 percent for Obama.”
“… exit polls can be used to examine different groups as shares of the overall vote. And there, experts say, is where the evidence can be found of how much black voters delivered for Obama.”
“Blacks made up 15 percent of the electorate in [swing state] Ohio, up from 11 percent in 2008. And 97 percent of those votes went for Obama…”
“In Michigan, the black share of the vote grew from 12 percent in 2008 to 16 percent in 2012 … Michigan was one of the states the two parties jostled around, and eventually Republicans decided they were not going to win, and one of the reasons was the big increase in the black vote.”
“the black share of the vote [was] 13 percent in Florida, which Obama won both times. In Virginia, which Obama won in both elections, black voters were 20 percent of all voters.” (‘Black voters look to leverage their loyalty‘, Associated Press)
‘Black churches organize caravans to get Souls to the Polls‘, The Florida Times
In the 2000 election, Florida cost Al Gore the presidency by tipping to G.W. Bush by a razor-thin margin. In 2012, Florida was carried by Obama — Hallelujah! Thank you, black churches and your caravan convoy of souls.
(c) More Hispanics voted in 2012 than they did in 2008, and 71 percent of the Latino vote went to Obama.
The Obama campaign message button
To sum up, most of Malaysia’s political junkies are aware that Obama succeeded in getting out the votes of minorities across the spectrum – blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Muslims. We’re talking here about voters choosing between the options of candidate A and candidate B.
But secondly, there is also the matter of making the commitment to come out and vote. The whites lagged behind in this respect while the minorities demonstrated a splendid show of strength.
Thirdly, more women voted than men and all the women favoured Obama (gender-wise, fewer white women than white men voted Romney). And fourthly, the young and first-time voters were up for grabs and Obama got ’em.
We’re familiar with the saying “work smart” (not necessarily “work hard”).
The white Republicans were the chunky but clunky Goliath whereas Obama played smart and nimble with his targetted approach.
Through collecting all minority interests (LGBTs, unwed mothers, welfare dependents, etc), Obama added up enough votes to edge out the Romney base.
I would not have commented on the American election results unless I thought that we could draw some useful observations from the voting pattern. And the parallel is this: DAP is playing the campaign game much smarter and more effectively than MCA.
Dinosaurs, after all, have brains the size of a walnut.
To be continued: One of the key reasons for the MCA splat