Hung Parliament GE13: Will half of MCA jump?
Will MCA jump ship?
A “pro-Umno” blogger says YES with regard to Ong Tee Keat. (We’ll get to his opinion shortly…)
111 is the magic number
There are 220 Parliament seats, so a simple majority in the House is 111.
DAP election strategist Ong Kian Ming provided his analysis below in The Rocket (2 Nov 2012):
“If PR can defend all of the 82 parliament seats it won in GE2008 and make further inroads by winning 1/3 of seats in the frontline states of Johor, Sabah and Sarawak (or an additional 20 seats), PR would have approximately 102 seats, just 10 short of a majority.
“If PR can focus strategically on a handful of marginal seats by fielding strong candidates and supporting him / her with adequate resources – seats such as Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor in Penang, Kuala Nerus and Dungun in Terengganu, Kuala Kangsar and Lumut in Perak, Lipis, Raub and Jerantut in Pahang and Bukit Katil in Melaka – it may just be enough to push PR over the magic number of 111 seats.”
Basking in the afterglow of the Obama effect, DAP is confident that they are at Putrajaya’s gate and only a few seats short of the key.
Trust Ong Kian Ming as someone who has packed his bags and left the MCA.
He speaks with the experience of having been attached previously to Insap, the MCA think-tank, and Sedar, the Gerakan think-tank before joining DAP in late August this year.
Who else will leave the MCA to join Pakatan?
Frogs R u, unicorns R us
MCA represents the Chinese community. And the following is illustrative of what the Chinese community thinks about an elected representative who switches his allegiance across coalitions.
If the Yang Berhormat jumps from Pakatan to BN, he is a frog. The Chinese will want nothing better than to boil him (legs edible) in hot oil for his treachery.
But if the YB hops over to Pakatan from the BN, he will be regarded as a lily-white unicorn — the latest shining recruit to the Good side of the Force.
So the million ringgit question is how will the Chinese community, whom MCA represents, react if any of the the communal party MPs were to defect in the event of a hung Parliament.
To get an idea, let’s see how the Malaysian First icons generally treat frogs and unicorns.
‘Frog’ Madam Hee Yit Foong – the Jelapang Adun cum Perak deputy speaker – is squished underfoot.
Whereas below is how the Firsters greet a unicorn.
Anak Malaysia leading light, Our Lady of Subang, appears to give her blessings to the act of the first Perak state assemblyman to cross over. He is the Adun of Bota who did a triple jump — from Umno to PKR very briefly and thence settling as a BN-friendly independent.
IMPORTANT: Please make a note of what she says.
The last time Parliament was stirred
Comparing the 16 Sept 2008 attempt by Anwar Ibrahim to shop for 31 BN MPs, Hannah Yeoh claimed that Pakatan did not act unconstitutionally because if you can remember, the prime minister-in-waiting possessed
“the numbers to form the new federal government, he wrote to PM Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi requesting him to convene an emergency sitting of Parliament. This was rejected by the PM. The next constitutional option is to press for the dissolution of Parliament to make way for fresh new elections. That was also not entertained,” said Hannah.
You can read her statement on 916 in the Bar Council website under the title ‘A mockery of our democratic institution (referring to the Perak takeover)‘.
To DAPsters, when BN does something, it is always undemocratic and immoral but when Pakatan does the same thing, it is miraculously cuci Bersih. Well, that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
Hannah described Anwar’s acts of holding the legislative process to ransom as being legitimate “constitutional means that were available to him” to effect a regime change.
Never mind her lack of logic as to why on earth should Tun Dol – Datuk Seri Dollah at that time – feel obliged to call an emergency Parliament sitting to topple his own government at Anwar’s behest when BN had won the election only six months earlier with 140 seats to Pakatan’s 82.
MCA president Chua Soi Lek has suggested that Ong Tee Keat, the Pandan incumbent, may quit their party “if there is no clear winner to the next general election” (screenshot of news report, below).
Who else in the MCA “may jump ship with hung Parliament”?
Object of adulation in Jerusubang
First, what are the consequences of a Chinese BN representative jumping ship? We’ll do a cost benefit analysis.
If a Chinese Pakatan elected rep withdrew from his party, and his party was the DAP, his life would soon be a living hell. Just ask Perak’s YB Jelapang.
But the situation is the contrary should his move be in the opposite direction. Then he would be reenacting the heady salad days of Zaid Ibrahim when the ex-Law minister first parted ways with Umno and then later joined PKR.
(Note: Zaid was not holding any elected Parliamentary seat and he had already been sacked when he joined the opposition.)
The courageous MCA seat-holder who crosses over to Pakatan would be accorded public adulation similar to that showered on Zaid at one point in time.
Pakatan the paragon of ethics
In the DAPster moral equivalency universe, such an act of crossover can be readily excused with all kinds of justification … provided you move in the ‘right’ direction.
And it’s not as if the YB would be ostracized by his community for leaving BN. Rather he would be feted as a hero in the pantheon of Chinese warriors who caused the fall of the mighty “Dumno” and its Evil Empire.
Hence there is little disincentive in terms of social sanction if an MCA Member of Parliament were to change party. In any case, the party he’s headed for has already adopted the slogan ‘Ubah!’ after all.
“Yes he will”
Blogger Freddie Kevin is one of those who attended the morning tea session with Dr Chua a couple of days ago.
In his posting ‘Ong Tee Kiat : Will He Or Won’t He?‘, Freddie shares his reasons why he believes Ong is capable of deserting the MCA.
- The MCA past president has previously threatened to pull out his party from BN
- He took the threat so far as to poll visitors to his blog on the proposal
- He is on record stating he would consider to stand as an independent or to set up a new party
On the question of who else, hava a look at a tweet from the MCA’s former three-term Adun in Subang Jaya. Incidentally, Datuk Lee Hwa Beng is tipped as being frontrunner to fill The Star CEO vacancy.
It is a piece of advice on the most expedient conduct in the coming general election.
Sentiments reflected by The Star
The Nik Aziz poster (above) tweeted by Lee Hwa Beng encourages voters:
“Kalau mereka [BN] beri duit kita ambil,
kalau beri gula kita kacau dan kalau mereka beri kain kita pakai.
Tetapi kena ingat ..! Apabila hari mengundi nanti, hendaklah pilih calon PAS,
kalau di tempat PAS tidak bertanding pilih KeADILan,
dan kalau tiada calon KeADILan kena undi calon DAP..”
The MCA credo?
If they (BN) give us seats we take
If they let us contest we campaign
and if voters pangkah Dacing, we don’t look a gift horse in the mouth
But remember ..! When the day of reckoning comes,
we will heed the popular will
of the community we represent
walk the path of godliness and righteousness
and uphold the high class values we subscribe to —
Democracy, Freedom, Justice, Integrity and Human Dignity
The Star is universally acknowledged as the MCA mouthpiece and media machinery. The paper’s daily pages, quite naturally, reflect MCAthink.
Thus its 1.3 million readers will have already been persuaded by the personalities constantly featured in the paper – like how Nik Aziz commands the loyalty of PAS followers – on the right thing to do.