Johor DAP chief Dr Boo Cheng Hau recently revealed that Pakatan is to field Indian candidates in Chinese majority areas.
This is a good tactical move.
DAP is already unassailable among the Chinese thanks to the rock solid support from the Chinese media. (The pro-opposition bias of the Chinese language press was detected through a study on media content conducted by Dr Chang Peng Kee together with Prof. Syed Arabi Idid and published in the Asian Social Science journal.)
Efforts by the media, including The Star, to shape public opinion in favour of the DAP 2.0 has been so thorough that pundits are presently saying that even if the party were to put up an unknown greenhorn, this candidate is still sure to win.
As one example, practically anyone that the DAP might nominate to contest the Ipoh Timur seat vacated by Lim Kit Siang is assured of winning.
Hence there is persuasive reason to believe that the strategy to bank on Indian votes, as mentioned by Dr Boo, is one that’s likely to succeed.
Below is a look at the Teluk Intan 2008 model — a Perak mixed constituency which has a 20 percent Indian electorate.
Chinese vote Chinese
But before we delve into the Teluk Intan results of the last general election, it is interesting to note that DAP’s Charles Santiago scored a convincing victory in Klang which has an ethnic breakdown of 33.5% Malay, 47.1% Chinese and 18.6% Indian. Santiago prevailed over the Selangor MCA chairman Datuk Ch’ng Toh Eng no less.
MCA was saved from being wiped out in 2008 due to – among other reasons – the following two factors: (a) The Umno vote bank, and (b) obtaining Chinese votes in cases when the Pakatan opponent was a non-Chinese.
It must be noted too that whenever MCA contested in any Chinese-majority urban area against a DAP Chinese, the MCA man is almost guaranteed to lose.
This pattern of MCA getting the Chinese votes only if and when the DAP (or PKR) candidate was a non-Chinese is indicated in the Bentong results [updated 10.45am].
How DAP won Teluk Intan
The Teluk Intan Parliamentary constituency comprises two state seats — Pasir Bedamar and Changkat Jong. All three were swept by the opposition.
TELUK INTAN PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY:
MCAGerakan Chinese vs DAP Indian MCA’s Gerakan’s Datuk Mah Siew Keong received 17,016 votes
DAP’s M. Manogaran received 18,486 votes
STATE SEATS IN TELUK INTAN:
MCAPPP Chinese vs DAP Chinese
- Umno Malay vs PAS Malay
On the BN side of the fence,
MCA’s PPP’s candidate in Pasir Bedamar obtained 5,741 votes and Umno’s candidate in Changkat Jong, 7,806 votes. Added together, both the BN men got a total of 13,547 votes.
On the Pakatan side, the DAP man in Pasir Bedamar obtained 13,655 votes and the PAS man in Changkat Jong, 8,705 votes. Added together the opposition obtained 22,360 votes.
At the DUN level, Pakatan (DAP+PAS) in tandem collected 22,360 votes.
However, at Parliament level, the DAP Indian received 18,486 votes. There is a shortfall of 3,874 votes. Meaning the 3,874 voters, who had backed the Malay PAS candidate and the Chinese DAP candidate at state level, failed to support the DAP Indian candidate for Parliament.
The DAP Chinese man won his DUN seat with a thumping majority of 7,914 whereas the PAS man had a majority of 899. The huge contrast between their margins of victory reflected the confirmed trend of a huge Chinese vote swing compared to the slight shift in the Malay electorate.
Let’s do the math in reverse to double check.
At the DUN level, the BN (
MCA PPP+Umno) pair collected 13,547 votes.
However, at Parliament level,
MCAGerakan’s losing candidate Datuk Mah obtained 17,016 votes.
Meaning, BN got 3,469 more votes at Parliament level than it did at state level.
So it’s like this
The 3,874 voters who backed the Malay PAS candidate and the Chinese DAP candidate at state level were unwilling to endorse the DAP Indian candidate at Parliament level.
Conversely we also know that 3,469 of those people who rejected DAP’s Mano had instead voted for
MCAGerakan’s Datuk Mah to be in Parliament.
What is to account for the difference of the roughly 3,500 votes between state and Parliament?
Here is where the race dynamics come into play. DAP’s Seah Leong Peng had a broader appeal for the voters than MCA’s Lee Heng, as proven by the former’s huge majority.
MCAGerakan’s Datuk Mah remained more appealing to them (the same subset of voters) than did DAP’s Manogaran.
A parallel situation had occurred in Pandan and Bentong. In the two constituencies, the MCA men beat a PKR Malay and a PKR Indian respectively. PKR is without doubt nowhere as popular with the Chinese as is DAP.
2013 will be different from 2008
The general trend in 2008 showed that some Chinese voted along racial lines although some Chinese managed to cross the ethnic barrier.
And herein lies the irony. In 2008, MCA managed to retain its seats in nine Malay majority areas due to Umno’s ability to persuade its followers to pangkah dacing.
In GE13, loyalty to the BN brand among the Malays is expected to be diluted somewhat. Confronted with the choice between an MCA man and a Malay opposition, they might opt for the PKR or PAS rival.
On the other hand with the Chinese voters, the trend has moved in the opposite direction. We’ve seen how even in 2008, the DAP’s M. Manogaran managed to take Teluk Intan (43.8% Chinese, 36.2% Malay) albeit narrowly.
Now if in GE12 the DAP Indian could already garner a commendable portion of Chinese support – the 3,500-odd conservative holdouts notwithstanding – then five years down the road, a Teluk Intan-like advantage will be much easier for the DAP to replicate in GE13.
This development is a testament to the DAP’s efficiency. This time around, the party is aided by an ample war chest … don’t forget that today DAP has corporate financiers which they did not have during previous elections.
DAP is super duper efficient because it has thoroughly brainwashed the Chinese within a mere five years to vote PAS candidates if need be, whereas the lifeline thrown to MCA by the Malays in 2008 was the culmination of 50 years of slow and steady Umno indoctrination.
All of which brings us today to Johor.
Size of Indians in MCA wards
Seven out of the MCA’s 15 seats contain a sizeable Indian electorate numbering above 10 percent. Assuming for a moment the status quo is retained on the seat quota, then those seats where MCA will be going head to head with the DAP are Alor Gajah, Gelang Patah, Labis and Kampar.
The strategy to place Indian candidates in Chinese majority areas was announced by the Johor DAP chairman. In his state, it will be feasible to apply this strategy in Labis. (Which is not to say that the other state DAP chairmen might not be adopting the same tactic as well.)
DAP optimistic on Labis
Labis is a 47.8 percent Chinese majority seat. Indians comprise 15.5 percent – a significant figure.
Should DAP put up an Indian candidate, he will get the Indians votes. The Chinese votes, needless to say, are already in his pocket.
The ABU current is so strong that Chinese electors, one daresay, are even willing to cast their ballots for an inanimate object as long as it wears a Rocket badge. In GE13, the Chinese Ubah-Ubah-Ubah voters will be looking at the party and not the individual.
Whatever Chua Tee Yong’s personal merits, the Labis incumbent would most probably succumb to the Johor Dominoes Theory as predicted by DAP election strategist Liew Chin Tong.
What I’ve touched on here is nothing groundbreaking and nor does it require any great stretch the imagination. After all, the DAP has already figured it all out and that’s why Dr Boo made his announcement.
GE13 will see the MCA become the biggest casualty of our country’s realpolitik race politics.
29 thoughts on “DAP’s smart card for Labis”
Why not Malay ?
Surely the politics of love which seems to be about the love affair between the Chinese and Malay* as defined by the DAP, would be better propagated by the inclusion of elected Malay reps in the DAP.
*Consider the PR manifesto, akin to a Twilight Omnibus and the Rocket a fanzine of the “book”
To be fair to the DAP, the party fielded a decent number of Indians the last election and they unexpectedly did well.
C. Santiago’s successful election might be said to be a surprise as he only joined DAP in Feb 2008, see http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/77717
And again to be fair to the DAP, its Malay candidates were fielded in 2008 too. Only thing is that they did not win.
The reason is logical. The consensus of the analysts is that in GE12, the vote swing of the Indians was huge, and the Malay shift quite small, relatively speaking. So the DAP Indian candidates won some but the DAP Malay candidates failed to win any.
As to your question, “Why not Malay?”
The DAP strategists have calculated on paper – remember LCT’s Johor Dominoes Formula – it will pay off to put up Indian faces. You’d probably agree with my reading that DAP has got the middle-class/professional and Christian Indian votes locked down.
Whereas with the Malays, the battlefield, at least for this GE – is still very much an Umno-PAS and to a lesser degree PKR fight. There is hostility to the DAP from some of the Malays which has no match in the Indian community.
DAP fielding the Malay candidates anywhere that he has to put up a real fight would be throwing the seats away.
Unless it is a safe seat like the DAP fixed deposits of Ipoh Barat, Seputeh, Kepong, etc.
BN fielding MCA candidates is similarly throwing away seats.
Somehow I don’t think DAP will throw away seats as easily as the BN war room unless for some strategic public relations. Whom they appointed to the CEC — Zairil and Dr Ariffin (now senator) – shows the degree that they will go to effect the window dressing.
Zairil is Guan Eng’s blue-eyed boy. The DAP’s accommodation of the ‘Malay’ rep in the form of Zairil also shows how the DAP functions, i.e. yes, we’ll put up a Malay window dressing but not the party stalwarts like Ahmad Ton & Zulkifli Nor.
After the Tunku Aziz debacle as well as the Jeff Ooi Red Rock episode where a Malay DAP member spilled the beans on the pastors’ gathering (immediately post the S’wak election), the DAP would be wary of the Malay loyalty when push comes to shove.
Actually Helen, the reason why there were many Indian candidates was due to Hindraf factor rather than DAP’s soft spot for Indians or Malaysian Malaysia spirit.
In Penang, I still recall how some Indian DAP leaders actually arm-twisted DAP into fielding them by issuing public threats.
After the Kg Buah Pala fiasco, where the Indians were cheated out of their homes by the Pakatan Rakyat, I don’t think the Indians will be foolish enough to vote for the Pakatan Rakyat this time around in the PRU13.
The Indians are not as stupid as the Malays as in Melayu mudah lupa. The Indian TIDAK mudah lupa.
if this time, this GE, if the Indians lash out at the DAP the way they did at the BN in 2008, we’re going to have a great show, with lots of fireworks.
after all, the DAP has already tagged Hindraf as racist so… who knows ?
after all, the Indians have nothing to lose this time voting for BN.
The Hindraf message is that the bulk of the working class Indians have gained very little from faithfully voting the BN over the last 50 years. Do pls read Waytha Moorthy’s Q & A.
The Star’s love affair with DAP continues…
Strong words from Chua…At least someone in MCA shares your thinking…Unfortunately it seems like Chua is waging one man war vs DAP while the Gunting is highlighting and promoting MCA’s worst enemy (See the link in the previous post on Teng) in the inner pages. This is like your girlfriend is sleeping with your worst enemy while happily spending your money on branded handbags and dresses.
How about another theory? People vote for the party that they believe will serve them well? Maybe a party not associated with submarines, mongolians, cows or condo?
so now you’re back as ss. you were Anon a few days ago. and also as Zendra Bangsat at Stop The Lies. what happened ?
or you could say The Star is the 5th Column.
I’ve already made up my mind that after the GE13, Malaysia will have a Malay government and a Chinese opposition.
And Najib should show to the Chinese mass that BN will only reward those who support the party. Najib should do what Chua Snr had said, ‘no Chinese representation in the cabinet should MCA win less than 15 Parliamentary seats.’.
Serves them (whoever yang terasa), right!
What if Umno invited DAP to join the BN to avert the race schism?
Gerakan was an opposition party in the 1969 election. Tun Razak invited Gerakan to join the BN after the NOC ceased operations.
not going to happen. the hatred they have for one another runs too deep. Razak invited Gerakan because the Gerakan leaders of that era, they were reasonable people, sane people.
the DAP of our time, its a party of religious fanatics and racial bigots. no chance of that happening Helen.
I believe Najib will do his best to avert the racial schism but sadly, for the DAP, racial schism is the thing they are looking for, and they will get it.
I seriously doubt that UMNO would ever invite DAP to join BN. PAS did last time, and the party left the coalition with greater hostility. And the country today is very different than the one in 1969.
So, if the nation has Chinese people who only vote for Chinese politicians from DAP, let it be then.
I hope the Malays will not start something like what the Malaysian government did to the British in the early 1980s when it got pissed of with the unfair business practice by the British govt, i.e. ‘Buy British Last!’. We will see who is actually holding the economic power of the country.
And Helen, the next time you go out to eat at McD, try look at the crowd at the place. I noticed McDs at Malay majority areas do not enjoy the same big crowd at other urban areas. I hope you understand the analogy.
From my experience, Malays love KFC! Could this be the explanation?
“We will see who is actually holding the economic power of the country.”
and its not the Chinese. the reasons ? I will talk about it tomorrow.
the mistake people make is that they equate economic power in terms of property/equity held by people, ethnic groups etc. your property, the equity you own, they do not equate to economic power. why ? because they are not the stuff that allows you to spend. now let me ask you. can you use your equity, your property, to spend on consumption. in the case of Malaysia, the answer is no. in the US you can do that because the financial markets allow you to spend using your property and equities because the system is designed such. the US is after all an economy based on domestic consumption that’s backed by dollar hegemony and imperialism but that’s for another day. our economy is not like that of the US.
if you really want to measure real economic power, you must focus on capital.
just look around. look at the money. follow the money. all the money, well, most of the money, they are from Government Linked Companies/Banks. look further. there’s the government linked investment companies. together they own a large chunk of the economy. money, capital, they serve as tools of patronage. that’s where real economic power lies. just ask the Jews. they control the banks and similar institutions.
They say “politics is an art of possible”.But as goes the saying “there is a limit to everything”.
So, UMNO would not invite DAP to join BN? Why? Let just say it is equivalent of asking “yahudi” to take care Arab’s interest”.
Contrary to common perception, UMNO’s position among malay community until today is unchallenged. Yes. there are PAS and PKR. the former has sizable Malay supports. But even at UMNO’s weakest period, it has been able to get the biggest pie of Malay votes.
Joining hand with DAP will result in UMNO being accused as committing treason by Malay community.
The coming election serves as an acid test for Najib. The result will tell whether his outreach to Chinese community is appreciated. Should Chinese reject him, then Najib will be forced to concede to Malay demands: that is to exclude Chinese completely at Federal, State and local govt.
I agree with the exclusion clause b’cos that’s what MCA themselves promised. It was not only CSL who said so but the delegates approved the resolution.
However, where have you read that Malays also demand for Chinese to be excluded from participation in govt should the Chinese voters reject BN?
What has Malaysia turned into? We now hate each other.
Nope. The one that hate others (meaning UMNO and anything that Malays aspire) is DAP. UMNO never teaches the Malays to hate the Chinese or PAS members.
C’mon. If anything this is exactly the goal of the BTN courses. Hate is such a subjective word, though.
dear ms Helen / its clearly written in you data that the candidate for ge 12 pasir berdamar is lee heng / for your kind info he is not from mca / but ppp / so much for your analysis / tq
Thank you for informing me. I apologize for the mistaken assumption and agree that it reflects badly on my eagerness to pin the blame on MCA.
I should have double checked first before publishing.
to err is human / magnanimity in your apology / on another note what is your honest take on parliament putrajaya / tengku adnan against yb husam musa / thanking you in advance
If the voters of Putrajaya comprised all of single ladies and janda, Husam will win, haha.
But otherwise I don’t see how Husam stands any chance, urbane tho’ he is. Plus the Putrajaya seat is a matter of prestige for Umno.
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