The table below shows the current standing in Parliament of the BN component parties. In the blue boxes are the peninsular parties and in the cream boxes are the Sabah and Sarawak parties.
(1) Umno and (2) Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud’s PBB are the two strongest BN parties. Both are Muslim-dominated and “Bumiputera”.
Allowing that PBB is the taiko of the Bornean parties, let’s look at those in the peninsula which comprise Umno + Satellites.
Among the satellite parties you can discount the MCA. The Chinese party is out of government and its reps won their seats on Malay votes. Gerakan’s sole Parliament seat in Simpang Renggam, Johor, is also a Malay-majority area.
That leaves the MIC’s four Parliament seats to consider. They are:
- Segamat, Johor
- Tapah, Perak
- Cameron Highlands, Pahang
- Hulu Selangor, Selangor
Let’s look at the small wins by the MIC big guns
Cameron Highlands: MIC president G. Palanivel (10,506 votes) beat DAP’s M. Manogaran (10,044 votes) to win by a slim majority of 462 votes.
Segamat: MIC deputy president S. Subramaniam (20,037 votes) beat PKR’s Chua Jui Meng (18,820 votes) to win by a majority of 1,217 votes.
Hulu Selangor: Putera MIC chief P. Kamalanathan (37,403 votes) beat PKR’s Khalid Jaafar (33,989 votes) to win by a majority of 3,414 votes.
Tapah: MIC vice president M. Saravanan (20,670 votes) beat PKR’s Vasantha Kumar (12,743) to win by a majority of 7,927 votes.
The nature of the MIC wins
Palanivel got through by the skin of his teeth on a mere 462-vote majority in a constituency of roughly one-third Chinese electorate, not enough Malays (only 34.2%) and a huge Lain-Lain (21.1%) population of Orang Asli living in the Cameron hills.
He won his seat with a 91.3% share of the advance and postal votes. Wow, terribly impressed at the tsunamic proportion.
Subramaniam won in the Umno stronghold Johor by a 1,217-vote majority. But the spoilt votes in his constituency were 950. According to the Merdeka Center, 93.3% (!!) of the 603 postal and advance votes in Segamat had gone to the BN.
Furthermore, Dr Subra’s victory was obtained not on the back of any popularity among Indians since the Indian voter segment in Segamat is 9.87% (Chinese make up 45.6% of the voters and Malay 44.3%). Compare Kota Raja, Selangor which has 29.5% Indian voters and won by PAS.
Note: In Kota Raja with an almost 30 percent Indian electorate, MIC candidate S. Murugesan only managed to garner 29,711 votes, compared to PAS-Dr Siti Mariah Mahmud’s 59,106 votes. In other words, PAS got double the votes of MIC in a strongly Indian constituency.
Kamalanathan won Hulu Selangor which is a Malay-majority area (56.8%) and having under a quarter (23.4%) Chinese electorate.
Saravanan had the most comfortable win among his compatriots. His Tapah electorate consisted of Malay 46.5%, Chinese 27.9%, Indian 13.3% and Lain-lain 12.4%. Lucky for him, in his constituency there were not enough Chinese voters to cause him to lose while the significant number of Orang Asli (12.4%) gave him an edge.
The statistics above reveal an interesting bit of trivia, i.e. the BN now depends on Orang Asli votes in order to scrape through aside from collecting the Malay kampung votes, the Felda votes and the rural Sabah and Sarawak votes.
I hope this pattern of voter distribution (BN=kampung coalition) sinks into the consciousness of the complacent Umno war room.
To restate it plainly for Umno — You. Lost. The. Popular vote.
You lost the urban vote. What carried you through was the Utusan readership and demography.
The J-Star‘s 5.63m audience
In our previous analysis of selected mixed seats in GE13, we found that for the first time PAS had made inroads into the semi-urban constituencies buoyed by DAP-Chinese support while PKR fared better than the BN components in the middle band (between 30-60% Chinese) seats.
The GE13 results in the peninsula also indicate that the non-Malay BN component parties are just window-dressing to provide the BN with a multi-racial facade.
BN in West Malaysia is essentially numero uno-Umno, and Umno only. The rest don’t count anymore.
Umno (88) and PBB (14) – these two parties alone – together total 102 seats is which just 10 seats short of a simple majority in our 222-seat Parliament.
Two-race political system
The Chinese were like a cat on a hot tin roof over Utusan‘s ‘Apa lagi Cina mahu?’
You can read the ex-Information Minister cum former Utusan group editor Tan Sri Zainuddin Maidin on the post-GE13 developments.
- Sikap ‘prejudice’ ketua pengarang akhbar The Star terhadap Utusan Malaysia
- Cina pulaukan pimpinan Melayu, Melayu pulaukan barangan Cina. Salahkah?
- Ketua pengarang The Star pertahankan pengundi pembangkang
- The Star anggap Melayu “banyak bodoh punya orang”
Before polling day, the Asli think tank had organized a debate between Chua Soi Lek and Lim Guan Eng in Mandarin. The topic of their debate was “Chinese at a crossroads: Is the two-party system becoming a two-race system?”
The Chinese indeed crossed the Rubicon in GE13. Surely you can answer for yourself the question whether we are currently landed in a two-race system, right?
So, the next stage is: Are we heading towards a two-religion system?
To see a slide show of Churches Burned In Egypt, go to the Huffington Post article ‘Egypt’s Churches Targeted By Morsi Supporters As Violence Continues‘ (22 Aug 2013).
Something for Umno to think about
Where is the country’s biggest and strongest political party taking Malaysia?
It whipped up hysteria over the crime rate and irrationally scapegoated the poor among the Indian community who are the bigger victims of social inequality.
BN has already totally lost the Chinese.
BN has also lost the Indian middle class, the Indian professionals and the Indian Christians.
Look at how Umno is treating the non-English speaking and Hindu Indians. Umno seems intent on sending the Tamilians back into Pakatan’s arms.
Muslims, Christians fight over kalimah Allah
If the Muslim-Christian schism should worsen, BN might lose the native Sabah and Sarawak non-Muslim votes.
I’m not sure if the Malays realise this or not but in your backlash against the Chinese (observe the proliferation of derogatory nicknames applied on the Chinese community of late) vote swing, you have radicalized.
Newton’s Third Law of Motion says that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The action of the Chinese going 90 percent to the opposition has invoked a reaction among the Malays to the far right.
It doesn’t help that the Chinese are being led by evangelistas. Dr Mahathir Mohamad in his Gelang Patah caution has already warned against religious conflict and a possible racial confrontation erupting. In Malaysia, race and religion overlap.
With this in mind, why are the Umno politicians still sabre-rattling? What do the Umno members and supporters really want?