I must confess that despite having earlier explored some of the Chinese tsunami results with regard to several pivotal constituencies earlier, I was nonetheless somewhat taken aback by the Bukit Katil (Mohd Ali Rustam’s losing bid for a Parliament seat in Malacca) figures crunched today.
The impact of the Chinese vote swing is much harder than I’d thought as well as the position of BN – make that the PPTA, Parti-Paling-Tidak-Apa Umno – in the next election is more precarious that we’ve yet to register.
In my previous posting titled ‘Ali Rustam dan tipu helah kaum Cina‘ I estimated that the incumbent Malacca Menteri Besar garnered roughly over 70 percent of the Malay votes. The man would himself possess the far more precise numbers as his polling agents have the details from the Saluran (voter streams).
In any case, Ali Rustam is adamant that his defeat should be attributed to the almost total rejection by the Chinese electorate.
Among the primary factors that would have had an effect on the outcome is the young voter pool. Some 46 percent of registered voters in Bukit Katil were under 40 years of age. Thus close to half of Bukit Katil voters are the youth (“youth” definition according to the age ceiling set by our major political parties’ Youth wing membership).
For the record, Ali Rustam did not lose too badly. In GE12 (2008), his predecessor the Umno man Md Sirat Abu won with a fairly slim majority of 1,758 votes over PKR rival Khalid Jaafar.
In GE13, PKR’s Shamsul Iskandar Akin pulled a majority of 5,447 over Ali Rustam.
4 DUNs under Bukit Katil
- Bachang: DAP Chinese candidate vs Gerakan Chinese candidate (DAP wins with majority of 2,672 votes)
- Ayer Keroh: DAP Chinese vs MCA (DAP wins / majority 7,943)
- Bukit Baru: Umno vs PAS (PAS wins / majority 48)
- Ayer Molek: Umno vs PAS (Umno wins / majority 3,761)
From the results above, we can see that Ali Rustam took the biggest hit in the DUN where the MCA man suffered a massive loss.
The MCA guy lost more votes in a state constituency than Ali Rustam did in his constituency at Parliamentary level.
Altogether, Pakatan collected a total of 46,909 votes from the four DUNs under Bukit Katil. Of the Pakatan votes, 32,622 or 69.5 percent (let’s round up to 70%) were cast for the two DAP candidates.
Meanwhile the four BN candidates collectively garnered 40,007 votes.
So the DUN numbers are: BN (40,007) vs Pakatan (46,909)
Compare the Parliament numbers: Ali Rustam-Umno (40,720) vs Shamsul Akin-PKR (46,167)
Ali Rustam is slightly more popular than the combination of the four BN DUN candidates while Shamsul is a wee bit less popular than the combination of the four Pakatan DUN candidates.
The above pattern does not indicate that the results obtained by Ali Rustam deviated in any way from the general trend. In other words, Ali Rustam should NOT be blamed for any personal unpopularity because his defeat is a collective BN failing, and rests most heavily on the MCA’s shoulders for losing by the biggest margin.
Hence it is incorrect for Lim Kit Siang and his konco-konco to make as if Ali Rustam suffered from any fatal flaw of personality.
On the other hand, the Bukit Katil result reflected the Chinese tsunami.
How much Chinese support left in GE14?
Ali Rustam was obviously caught unawares.
Najib Razak’s con-sultants too must have been feeding the PM with false reassurances right up to polling day.
What we can now see with the benefit of hindsight is that Bukit Katil, a 53% Malay seat on the peninsula west coast was still conceded to the opposition going on the premise that 85% of the Chinese votes went against the BN and 70% of the Malay votes going with Umno.
Now imagine the next election with 90%-95% of the Chinese votes going to the oppo (and why not, with the hate and incitement churned by the Evangelista Bintang Tiga on a daily basis).
Unique to Malacca, there is the tiny factor of the serani votes but overall, there would be a bigger shift of the Christian votes to the opposition. Then again, Umno keeps pissing off the Hindu Indians too. More loss.
Plus there will be the huge increase of youth votes. Nice. For Pakatan I mean since their people are all younger and they’re more digital communication and media savvy.
After all, here we have the Umno Youth chief hiring Dapsters to help move the young votes along … to the oppo’s side of the fence … and plus the baby Dapsters are lean, mean fighting machines.
You’re all aware how Tony Pua menganjingkan the ROS and dissed the Appeal Court judges. Well let me tell you that Tony Pua’s proteges – the DAP evangelista interns – do the sifu proud. For such greenhorns, their viciousness is most laudable — from the ‘Kuburkan Umno’ standpoint view, that is.
NST reported that 54 of the 222 Parliament seats are dominated by Felda settlers. And it is here that Umno’s strength lies. But how safe is Felda as the long-term fixed deposit for Umno? And what if Felda makes Malays unhappy the next 4 years?
If 70 percent Malays supported Umno and Ali Rustam still lost, how much higher must BN up their game in GE14?
Red is the Pakatan share of the pie chart, yah
I hope that it has sunk into Umno’s tidak-apa-asyik-tidur-very-thick skull that once they lose federal to the DAP-led opposition, the BN will NEVER, E.V.E.R. get their power back. My home state Selangor is a testament to this where the BN is in shambles.