Let us look at maps, shall we?
The American map is from The Washington Post.
Blue is Obama-Democrat and red is Romney-Republican.
Obama obtained 50.6% of the popular vote in 2012. (Pakatan got 50.9% in GE13)
Romney obtained 47.8% of the popular vote. (BN got 47.4%)
Obama carried the big city-coastal states bordering the Atlantic (New York, etc) and the Pacific oceans — California which is the USA’s most populous state, Washington which is the state hosting the Microsoft headquarters and has Seattle as its tech hub city, etc.
Romney carried the states with vast land areas and relatively more sparse populations — icy Alaska, Texas (note: Texas is some 1½ times the size of California but California has a population some 1½ times that of Texas) and the Deep South (Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, etc).
The American presidential election had its regional fault lines somewhat akin to the “urban-rural divide” that is much touted by the Dapsters to explain our tsunamic election results.
ABOVE: Christians have all kinds of attractive programmes and activities for children, tweens and teenagers
Urban kids like to hang out with their peers. Christians control the urban narrative because they’re so savvy.
BN lacks urban support
Below is the Malaysian map by Thomas Pepinsky, a Cornell University assistant professor.
Blue shows the areas where the BN has its strongest vote share. These areas are in Sabah and Sarawak, Pahang, the non-metropolitan districts of Johor, and the hinterland of Kelantan.
Support for BN is more like Romney’s. It is certainly unlike Obama’s.
Also see, ‘Pakatan pegang semua ibu negeri kecuali Johor Bahru dan Kangar (state capitals are either cities or big towns and hence urban).
Obama appeals to the young
Now let us look at the demography. The bar charts are from the Huffington Post and based on exit polls.
Obama was way, way ahead in support from young people (age groups: 18-24, 25-29) while Romney was only significantly in the lead among the senior citizens older than 65.
Below the population pyramid for Malaysia constructed from our 2010 national census.
See the 15-19 Malaysian age group in year 2010. There are lots of them impressionable, short-attention span, digital age youngsters. We are what you might call a “young”, developing country.
If the teenagers were 15 years old in 2010, they will be 23 years old in 2018 and eligible to vote for the first time in GE14.
The warga emas age cohorts – traditional BN voters – are small. The youth – potential Pakatan voters – outnumber them many times over. See the long horizontal bars for the under-30 (age groups: 20-24, 25-29).
Young people tend to live (study and work) in the cities. These are urban voters.
Evangelism is fun, song & dance. BN is boring.
Najib is 60, Muhyiddin is 66, Zahid is 60, and Shahrizat is also 60.
Hannah Yeoh is 34 and her fellow Selendang Squader Teo Nie Ching is 32.
KJ is Anwar’s twin, so they’re both the same age.
Urbanites hate Umno, and they’re a herd that will stampede anyone they see as being even remotely biased in favour of the BN.
These lynch mobs congregate in the City Harvest Church and other such Cell Groups. Jerusubang is aggressively spreading its tentacles just about everywhere and indoctrinating the interior too.
Our semi-rural constituencies are morphing into semi-urban. By the year 2020, three-quarters of the Malaysian population in the peninsula will be living in urban areas — see projection below by the Statistics Department.
Obama aggregates American minorities
Up next, the ethnicity USA bar chart.
Obama received 93% support from black voters. That’s like the kind of stratospheric support DAP and the opposition receive from the Chinese.
Obama’s level of support from the other ethnic minorities is high too (Latinos 71%, Asians 73%). That’s like the kind of support DAP and the opposition are given by Malaysia’s religious and linguistic minorities — the Christians and the English-speaking professionals.
Apa lagi remaja mahu? Jom, berhibur!
The whites are the majority in Amerika. The majority of them, 59% (let’s round up to 60 percent) support Romney and 39% (let’s round up to 40 percent) support Obama. So it’s 60:40 whites for the Republicans.
In other words, every 6 out of 10 white voters supported Romney but still he lost. This is a lesson for Umno.
I hope the Parti Paling Tidak Apa (PPTA) dan alpa is able to learn from the local equivalent. Mohd Ali Rustam got 70% of the Malay vote and he still lost in a Malay-majority area.
(For the record, Dr M noted this Obama rainbow coalition trend and grasped its significance very early on when most of us were still blur sotong.)
BN’s attrition of minorities
If Obama went around collecting all the minorities including gays – see ‘Obama announces he supports same-sex marriage‘ (CNN, 10 May 2012) – to buffer his vote count, the BN is doing the very opposite.
Perkasa is alienating the non-Malays and non-Muslims.
This Malay right wing group is seen as an extension of Umno because its vice president Zul Noordin was allowed to stand on the Umno ticket in Shah Alam and its president Ibrahim Ali had a free passage (Umno failed to register its own candidate, wink, wink) to contest in Pasir Mas.
Jerusubangites are ready to pounce on the Malay young
Aside from raiding the campuses of the private colleges as well as brainwashing schoolchildren, the DAP have been venturing even into the bastion of Malay education privilege — UiTM.
If you’re wondering why KJ is in my headline, read ‘Can Khairy replace Anwar as Pakatan figurehead?‘
Does anyone recall Anwar’s planned takeover of government through his infamous ‘Sept 16’ attempted coup? The idea was for him to form a unity government by enticing the crossover of enough BN-Umno MPs.
Does KJ’s self-profession as a “liberal” and “progressive” better fit the Umno or the Pakatan profile?
Please review KJ’s career thus far.
Has it been more about popularizing himself (380,845 Twitter followers) or popularizing the BN? Then ask yourself, is personality cultism more of an Umno or a Pakatan feature?
When the ill winds blow, in which direction do you think KJ will sway? His choice of Press Secretary is a good hint.