Continues from Sg Limau by-election: Who is lying, MCA or DAP?
PAS has retained the seat with a reduced majority (Malaysiakini report here).
PAS – 12,096 votes
BN – 10,985 votes
Majority – 1,084 votes
The late PAS Menteri Besar Azizan Abdul Razak had commanded a 2,774 majority in GE13.
By-election: Chinese retreating wavelet?
MCA says that in GE13, 90 percent of the Chinese in Sg Limau voted for the opposition. DAP contends only 55 percent of the Chinese supported PAS.
For an overall picture of the May 5 election voting pattern, look at the graph below by Thomas Pepinsky (an assistant professor at Cornell University).
The red dots = DAP.
x-axis shows that DAP contested in the areas with the least Malay voters (meaning, inversely with the most Chinese voters).
y-axis: These same areas are also the constituencies where the BN receives the least votes.
Below is my own table of the Parliament seat results based on the Chinese composition of the electorate.
We can see that every single one of the 15 seats with more than 70 percent Chinese went to DAP.
All 6 Parliament seats having between 60-69% Chinese voters also went entirely to the DAP.
Of the 9 seats with 50-59% Chinese voters, 8 were won by DAP too and one by PKR.
The BN failed to win any of the 30 seats where half or more of the voters were Chinese. Zilch.
If you look at the results for the middle bands – 40-49% and 30-39% Chinese voters – you can see that PKR did well in these mixed seats. This trend tallies with the light blue dots in Pepinsky’s graph above.
Below is a graph I pinched from Oik.
It’s a beautiful joining of the dots and not scattered at all. It can be used to plot the very close correlation between the number (percentage) of Chinese voters with the amount of votes received by the Pakatan candidates.
Oik’s finding is straightforward since his data input are the 11 Kuala Lumpur parliamentary constituencies. KL in the Federal Territories is the state with the most Chinese voters.
The same format doesn’t work as well with the Kedah constituencies though as the Chinese voter population is too smallish to demonstrate such a distinct correlation as do the KL constituencies.
What we can examine however is the BN success in wresting Kedah back from PAS in 2013 by comparing the performance of PAS vs Umno according to Chinese voter composition.
The Kedah state seats won by Umno in GE13 are as follows with the percentage of Chinese voters in brackets:
- Pedu (0.82% or in other words, less than 1%)
- Jeneri (1.39%)
- Kuala Nerang (1.82%)
- Belantek (1,85%)
- Air Hangat (2.14%)
- Sungai Tiang (2.37%)
- Kupang (4.21%)
- Bayu (4.32%)
- Pantai Merdeka (6.27%)
- Kota Siputeh (7.14%)
- Bukit Kayu Hitam (7.71%)
- Ayer Hitam (7.76%)
- Bukit Lada (7.76%)
- Jitra (10.41%)
- Gua Cempedak (10.58%)
- Kuah (11.15%)
- Tanjung Dawai (12.7%)
- Bandar Baharu (15.14%)
- Bakar Bata (26.74%)
Thirteen out of Umno’s 19 state seats are in constituencies with less than 10 percent Chinese voters and 8 of them in constituencies with less than 5 percent Chinese voters.
Umno’s turned in a sterling show in the kawasan-kawasan Melayu totok.
Below are the PAS state seats in Kedah and their percentage of Chinese:
- Bukit Pinang (6.1%)
- Sg Limau (6.72%)
- Kuala Ketil (6.75%)
- Tokai (8.89%)
- Anak Bukit (10.56%)
- Pengkalan Kundor (22.8%)
- Alor Mengkudu (23.96%)
- Kubang Rotan (27.3%)
The data shows that PAS defeated Umno in 3 seats where the Chinese comprised 20-30 percent of the electorate. PAS is way more popular with the Chinese than is Umno.
Chinese voters rocketing to the moon
Let’s trace the history of Kubang Rotan, the Kedah DUN with 27.3% Chinese voters.
- In 2013, PAS won the seat with a majority of 1,044 votes
- In 2008, PAS won the seat with a 1,387 majority when the Chinese voters were 26.9%
- In 2004, PAS lost the seat which Umno won with a 7,941 majority
- In 1999, PAS lost the seat which Umno won with a 1,985 majority when the Chinese voters were 22.1%
- In 1995, the seat was held by Umno
So PAS only got the seat in 2008 and 2013 whereas previously in 1995, 1999 and 2004 the seat was Umno’s. The switchover is definitely an indication of the Chinese tsunami.
The Dah Ikhwan blog has calculated that Chinese support for PAS in Kedah increased to 70.0 percent in 2013 from 44.5 percent in 2008.
And what about in Sungai Limau? Of course we’re all curious if the Chinese turned up to vote in “Ini Kali Lah” wu yue wu huan zheng fu proportions as well as where their votes went today.
We’re waiting for MCA to reveal the vote percentages at the polling stations with the most Chinese registered voters.