Some bodoh sombong Umno politicians think poor Indian voters are nobodies who can be bullied.
They (both the bodoh sombong Umno politicians and the Indian voters) may cause the BN to lose Putrajaya come GE14.
If you go to this website http://www.undi.info, you can play a little game of Voter Swing simulation based on GE13 data.
I tested a permutation whereby there is a small 10 percent Indian vote swing to Pakatan with no changes in either Chinese or Malay votes. The predicted result from this 10 percent Indian shift is that Pakatan will be able to snatch 5 Parliament seats away from the BN — see screenshot below.
The seats are:
- Cameron Highlands
- Kuala Selangor
- Pasir Gudang
All of the 5 Parliament seats likely to change hands, on account of the simulated Indian 10 percent swing, had been won by BN with slim majorities — Pasir Gudang (Umno, 935 votes), Cameron Highlands (MIC, 462 votes), Kuala Selangor (Umno, 460 votes), Bentong (MCA, 379 votes) and Labis (MCA, 353 votes).
With such thin margins of victory, it is easy to see how a slight movement within the Indian electorate will cost BN these five federal constituencies.
How the Indian voters are spread
The table above lists 10 Parliament seats with more than 20 percent Indian voters and another five with between 17 and 20 percent Indian voters.
In Padang Serai, Batu Kawan, Bagan Datok, Ipoh Barat, Sungai Siput, Kota Raja, Kuala Selangor, Lembah Pantai, Teluk Kemang and Rasah, more than 20 percent of the electorate is Indian or in other words, one out of every five voters.
So imagine if in any of those constituencies, two Malays voted Umno-BN // one Malay and one Chinese each voted Pakatan (i.e. both coalitions tied 2-2), then it is the remaining Indian who will get to cast the deciding vote.
The DAP seats among the 10 above were won with massive majorities, so they are quite safe. The PKR and Umno seats however are vulnerable to the whims of the Indian voters.
P121: Lembah Pantai
(20 percent Indian voters)
Nurul Izzah retained Lembah Pantai with a majority of 1,847 votes. She managed to pip Raja Nong Chik to the finish line albeit her delusional supporters were hallucinating hysterically that they saw Bangladeshi “phantoms”.
Nurul also played dirty by hurling accusations at her opponent during the election campaign, and Raja Nong Chik is taking her to court for it. Good, the defamation suit ought to teach her a lesson.
With Indians comprising one out of every five Lembah Pantai voters, it is possible for Umno to take back the seat in the next election with just a slight increase in Indian support.
A mere 10 percent swing of Indian votes and maximizing Chinese votes can hand Lembah Pantai back to BN … unless a certain young, arrogant, upstart Umno Minister wrong foots and shoots his own party in the foot.
P96: Kuala Selangor
(22 percent Indian voters)
Umno’s Irmohizam Ibrahim clinched Kuala Selangor on a majority of 460 votes and only just narrowly edging out a prominent national figure — Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad of PAS. This is an unsafe seat from which Umno can be easily ousted.
P132: Teluk Kemang
(21.4 percent Indian voters)
PKR won Teluk Kemang, Negeri Sembilan in GE13 by a majority of 1,579 votes.
Teluk Kemang was however a BN ward earlier in 1999 where the MIC’s Anpalagan strolled home comfortably on a 9,942 majority. S. Sothinathan continued the MIC winning streak in 2004 winning a whopping 17,777-vote majority.
However the 2008 Hindraf tidal wave sweeping through the peninsular west coast caused Sothinathan to stumble. The MIC vice president failed to defend his seat after securing 20,544 votes to his PKR Malay opponent’s 23,348 votes.
All of the examples above show that the Indian votes can be pivotal in certain seats. Other seats with a significant number of Indian voters are Teluk Intan, Kuala Langat, Hulu Selangor, Klang and Merbok.
P94: Hulu Selangor
(17.6 percent Indian voters)
Hulu Selangor is interesting in that it was won in 1999 and in 2004 both times by current MIC president G. Palanivel. In 2008, MIC lost Hulu Selangor to PKR on a wafer thin 198-vote majority following the Makkal Sakti or People Power phenomenon that benefited the opposition.
The Hulu Selangor seat was regained in 2013 by P. Kamalanathan with a 3,414-vote majority. The results indicate that the pendulum can swing either way and its direction determined by a small percentage of Indians.
Below: Red is Pakatan state capital, blue is BN
BN has lost the popular vote
What the BN mustn’t forget is that the coalition is no longer ruling with a mandate provided it by a majority of the voters. BN has lost the popular vote and rejected by voters in all the state capitals with the exception of Kangar and Johor Bahru (see table above).
Dah Ikhwan had estimated that Indian support for BN during the 12th general election (2008) had dwindled to only 10 percent — a ratio identical to the 2013 Chinese tsunami situation where there was an almost total rejection of the BN by the community.
Indian support for BN was clawed from its low of 10 percent in 2008 to rise back up to 43.2 percent on average nationwide. Individually, the Indian support is 21.5% in Penang, 24.4% in Selangor, 31.0% in Negeri Sembilan and Malacca, 54.9% in Kedah, 59.1% in Johor and 68.5% in Perak in 2013 (source: Dah Ikhwan’s blog)
Second simulation: 15 percent vote swing by the Indians
The Indian vote is nonetheless unstable and a chunk of it (Hindu, Tamil speakers) could still wind its way ‘back’ to Pakatan. The Indian middle-class who are Christian, professionals and English-speaking have abandoned the BN already.
Whether the Hindu Indians do the same depends on how off-putting is the behaviour of the BN leadership and its supporters presently being displayed — like in the public heckling of Hindraf’s P. Waytha Moorthy we are witnessing.
See screenshot above — If there is a 15 percent Indian voter swing to Pakatan, the BN will lose 11 more Parliament seats.
Do the math. Millions of young and first-time voters, and three-quarters of the peninsular population living in urban areas by 2020 (election must be held by mid-2018 latest) are trends that favour Pakatan.
So, according to the simulation, if 15 percent of the Indian votes are swung, additionally another six seats — Bagan Serai, Bagan Datok, Hulu Selangor, Setiawangsa, Titiwangsa and Tebrau — on top of Cameron Highlands, Bentong, Kuala Selangor, Labis and Pasir Gudang will also slip from the BN’s grasp.
If Setiawangsa and Titiwangsa change hands, then it can really be said the Federal Territories is now ruled by the DAP Chinese and their strategic allies.
The cow is an animal sacred to the Hindus … tak sakit hati ke tengok?
Let me repeat
BN does not possess the popular support of the majority of the rakyat anymore.
It is in power only because of the Felda settlers and the advantageous rural weightage embedded in our electoral system.
And every day the BN is bleeding more support, so much so that even Umno VVIPs are getting worried the coming election will really and truly show BN out the Putrajaya door.
Pause and reflect for a moment: Why did 51 percent of the voters roundly reject BN and another 2 percent choose third party or independent candidates instead?
Please allow me to answer: Because the BN’s bullying behaviour can be so ugly sometimes.
Gara-gara Khairy punya perangai, BN tumbang nanti
If you look back at the history of the five decades post-Merdeka, you will realise that Indian loyalty to the BN has been unwavering. So what happened to suddenly turn this Indian support upside down and inside out in 2008?
Can figure it out? Or can’t?
Never mind. Go ahead, lah and bully the poor Indians some more.
There is a very real possibility that the BN share of the Indian vote bank may once again, like in GE12, shrink to 10 percent by the time our next election takes place. BN’s share of the Chinese vote bank will ultimately diminish to 3% or 2% or who knows, even a token one percent.
Thereafter Umno will surely suffer the Obama Effect. Remember that even though incumbent President Obama’s Republican challenger collected 6 out of 10 white votes, nonetheless Mitt Romney did NOT get the White House. Learn this lesson in electoral mathematics, okay.
Harap-harap Melayu jangan mudah lupa. Angkara Khairy dan kerenah bebudak Tingkat Empatnya, BN telah kehilangan majoriti dua pertiga dalam PRU12.
Be prepared to lose Putrajaya if this belligerent BN image is kept up.
After all, BN has lost the war of perception pun dah.