An important lesson for Umno from Thailand.
The Yellow Shirts (like Bersih) comprise the Thai urban middle class. They have brought down Yingluck, the PM of Thailand, whose party has the stronger rural support … cough, cough, Umno please take note.
The “Democrat” Party supporters occupied the streets, locked down Bangkok and took control of important institutions of state.
Only last week Dr Mahathir warned against the breakout of anarchy and how “demos and violence can overthrow Government”.
Now most recently, the ‘Thai Red Shirts warn of civil war if government falls‘ (Channel News Asia, 10 May 2014).
BELOW: The garang Bersih Aunties, Thai-style
The centre cannot hold
Yingluck has been ousted because her self-styled “democratic” opponents are more city savvy, among other reasons. Bangkok is the centre of power and power brokers. And in Bangkok, the opposition rules.
Umno cannot keep maintaining its grip on power without urban strongholds. All the state capitals are in Pakatan hands with the exception of Kangar and Johor Bahru both of which have Umno MPs.
- DAP — Georgetown/Tanjong, Ipoh Barat, Ipoh Timor, Seremban, Kota Melaka, Kota Kinabalu, Kuching MPs
- PAS — Shah Alam, Kota Bharu, Kuala Terengganu MPs
- PKR — Kuantan, Alor Setar MPs
The Federal Territories are owned by the opposition who hold the majority of KL seats, nine, compared to BN-Umno’s two.
Read how the DAP is staking a claim on KL (see below).
Without adequate electoral strength in the urban areas, Umno will be unable to secure its continued hold on federal power.
In the latest current development, BN has given up on the late Karpal Singh’s seat even before the by-election takes place. We must examine what this walkover portends.
BELOW: Datuk Lee Hwa Beng, MCA former three-term ADUN for Subang Jaya insists Umno is the real MCA opponent
Urban is extremely hostile terrain
Bukit Gelugor is an urban seat in a developed state. Its electorate is 75 percent Chinese, 14 percent Malay and 10 percent Indian.
There are three state seats under Bukit Gelugor, i.e. Seri Delima, Air Itam and Paya Terubong, and all are held by DAP.
In GE13, DAP won Paya Terubong with a landslide and whopping majority of 25,719 votes. Paya Terubong has 82 percent Chinese and only 6 percent Malay voters, so the result figures.
DAP won Air Itam with the smallest majority among the three DUNs under Bukit Gelugor. There are 21 percent Malay voters in Air Itam.
The Seri Delima Adun, RSN Rayer, is a lawyer and Karpal’s man.
Seri Delima is to Penang what Jerusubang is to Selangor — the hub of Christian activities. Although the City Harvest Church of Penang is not located in Karpal’s constituency nonetheless the affluent suburbs in this area, e.g. Island Glades, Green Lane, are host to the Christian communities.
Let’s extrapolate on the Bukit Gelugor urban electorate profile and assess what it means to the BN’s political fortunes.
BELOW: Yup, there is a City Harvest Church in Penang
Sebenarnya MCA takut malu, tu jer
The conventional wisdom is that it’s virtually impossible for BN to win in any Chinese-majority area. This formulation is solidly backed by the GE13 data.
Lim Kit Siang says that the reason BN is not fighting the upcoming by-election is really the MCA’s “fear of an even more ignominious defeat in Bukit Gelugor than during the 13GE last May”. Karpal’s margin of victory then was 41,778 votes.
The MCA man had obtained 19.9 percent of the votes cast in Bukit Gelugor and not too far from losing his deposit. (A deposit is forfeited when the candidate fails to secure 1/8 or 12.5 percent of the total number of votes polled in the constituency.)
In the last general election, MCA lost their deposits in two Penang DUN seats — Berapit and Pengkalan Kota. It was a first for the BN. The Bukit Gelugor by-election could have been a first for BN to lose their deposit in a Parliament face-off.
If “Abdul Aziz Isa” is Malay, then my most dedicated reader is Syed Mokhtar
See in the constituency map above how the dark blue of BN was wiped out in just one electoral cycle. Similarly the BN can lose at federal level too.
It’s only been 10 years since BN was ascendent in Penang. So how did the emphatic swingback take shape? (I say swing_”back” because Penang swung to the opposition in the 1969 election).
The methods employed by the Chinese opposition has been characterized as the Politics of Hate. But it is much more. The very foundation of their campaign is cemented with building blocks manufactured by the Putar-Belit, Bohong dan Fitnah factories. Think Scissorati and their modus operandi.
And not to mention their chameleon playacting in the social media that is thoroughly dominated by the DAP. Take for instance the UBAH message (below) in Facebook purportedly originating from one “Abdul Aziz Isa”. Hah.
Does anyone believe that this “Aziz” fella is a genuine Melayu?
Seething with anger and resentment
How does Malaysian politics even begin to deal with such a forked-tongue, shape-shifting and grotesque species like the Dapster-evangelista?
MCA is quite correct to be quaking at the malignant climate in Penang. However BN is wrong to surrender without a fight when there are some 12,000-odd Malay voters in Karpal’s ward. This by-election provides a timely opportunity to touch base with them and indeed the state Umno machinery is willing to crank up.
Then there are the 10 percent Indian voters in Bukit Gelugor. While the BN can write off any support from the Christian Indian and Indian professionals, there is still the possibility of outreach to those who do not fall into either categories.
Come on, BN! You need to buck up.
Not all Indians are lost to you. Start working!!
BELOW: Is this Indian man a Penang registered voter? He doesn’t look like a Guan Eng fan
Venom spewed at Umno reveals real feelings about Malays
If you want to know what Penang is like nowadays, think Kelantan when that state was at the height of its animosity against Umno. Think Terengganu at the peak of Amanat Hadi Awang and its ‘sembahyang dua imam’ fallout.
If you were to ask me, I’d concede that it is Mission Impossible to persuade the Chinese today to return to the path of rationality. And I blame the MCA for this state of things.
The MCA had allowed the DAP to make use of its resources, its media and its machinery. MCA fuelled the growth of the DAP 3.0 and fed the DAP evangelistas extra tasty snacks so that these creatures ballooned into behemoths.
And MCA is still allowing the DAP to make use of its resources, its media and its machinery. MCA claims to have one million members but is incapable of contesting one by-election in a small state?! Takkan lah…
Eject this biawak hidup already
What is the point of keeping MCA in the BN when they wave the white flag from the get go?
MCA are no value add. They only serve to demoralize the rest of the BN components with their defeatist attitude.
Come on lah, the party is after all the Malaysian CHINESE Association. If the MCA refuses to stand in the Chinese-majority Bukit Gelugor, where does it expect to be given a seat to contest? Kepala Batas?
Umno must really dwelve into the MCA’s hidden and ulterior motives for this cop-out in Bukit Gelugor.
Datuk Lee Hwa Beng, the former three-term MCA Adun for Subang Jaya said:
“Our real opponent is not DAP as we only face the opposition party once every five years. Our real opponent is Umno. Every day at local, state or federal level, we have to face them. We have to stand up against them if not they keep eroding our (Chinese) rights”.
BELOW: Might as well the MCA Datuks just submit their application form for the Parti Biawak lah
BONUS TIP FOR THE BN:
Press statement by Wee Choo Keong, former MP for Wangsa Maju