PAS will be No.2 in BN after Umno
Consider this. In Pakatan, PAS is the most junior partner whereby its 21 Parliament seats trail behind PKR’s 29 and taikor DAP’s 37.
In BN on the other hand, PAS will be the second most influential partner after big brother Umno.
The BN hierarchy will be as follows: Umno 88 Parliament seats, PAS 21, PBB 14, MCA 7, PRS 6, MIC 4, PBS 4, SPDP 4, Upko 3, PBRS 1, SUPP 1 and Gerakan 1.
TMI desperately trying to derail unity talks
“[A] snap poll will definitely bring a huge loss to the opposition, especially PAS”, predicts The Malaysian Insider in their doomsday scenario headlined ‘Selangor crisis and its implication for PAS’.
Although TMI labelled their 1,776-word editorial as an “analysis”, the intent of the portal’s massive spin job to deter a potential PAS-Umno cooperation is clear as day.
“If PAS insist on forming a unity government in Selangor, it would probably only last for one term. This is because non-Muslim voters and Malay opposition supporters would reject the party,” says TMI‘s opinion piece published a couple of days ago on 30 July 2014.
Will Malays reject PAS for teaming up with Umno as TMI claims? The portal is quite insistent that with such a move, “the PAS leadership will face the risk of losing its legitimacy among grassroot members and leaders”.
Its very long-winded editorial was utilized by TMI, most obviously as a sledgehammer, for the primary purpose of hammering home the portal’s psywar agenda to demoralize PAS.
TMI went to the extent of issuing a veiled threat that the Islamist party’s “grassroots might even remove any leader that tries to form a unity government with Umno and BN”.
Now, now, TMI‘s slip is showing. “PAS will go back to being a small party with influence only in the east coast” and “could most probably lose the support of … a chunk of Malay supporters”, the portal’s editor intones repeatedly. His slant is not surprising and TMI is merely parrotting the DAP line (it’s the Christian favouritism, you see).
Additionally, TMI avers that “PAS will go back to being a ‘mosquito party’.” How insulting of the TMI editor to jentik PAS like this.
BELOW: Appellants in the Herald ‘Allah’ case
New playbook, Malay manual
TMI and its media owners’ real fear is that – in their own words – “failure to resolve the crisis will give BN, especially Umno, a chance to wrestle back the state”. Thus their desperately seeking to down play the unity government thrust.
The truth of the matter is that the BN’s only chance to wrest back Selangor is through an Umno-PAS working pact. Without Umno taking PAS on board the bandwagon, the switchover of the Selangor state government can’t and won’t happen.
It is not a BN show at all. The unity government vehicle has to be powered by the twin engines of PAS and Umno.
But let us appraise the TMI spin intelligently and critically.
I’m convinced that with the exception of a few tiresome trolls, the readership of my blog is generally a discerning crowd. I will place TMI‘s and my own analysis side by side, below, and you can evaluate for yourself.
Leng chai in a row: MCA protest against hudud
TMI says: … only “several PAS leaders and their advisers” prefer the option of working with Umno.
Helen says: According to Dr Zuhdi Marzuki, the PAS research centre operations director, “at least 10 of the PAS central committee members” in the leaked WhatsApp conversation had supported a proposal for the party to quit Pakatan.
TMI says: “the PAS seats in Selangor would diminish from 15 to about six or less”
Helen says: TMI is talking like Tony Pua and Anthony Loke in overrating the significance of the Chinese support. While it is doubtless that PAS will lose the non-Malay votes in the event of a re-election, at the same time nonetheless, the party will gain more Malay votes to compensate.
You can see a table of the 15 PAS Selangor state seats and their demography HERE.
TMI says: “It also has the potential to lose parliamentary seats at areas which are cosmopolitan such as Pokok Sena, Parit Buntar, Bukit Gantang, Kota Raja, Shah Alam, Sepang, Hulu Langat and Temerloh (in other words, it is possible that PAS would lose all other parliamentary seats except in Kelantan and Terengganu).”
Helen says: While PAS may lose the non-Malay vote, this does not necessarily mean that such a loss will cost PAS the seat altogether. See example of Temerloh below.
Who runs Selangor is dependent on the results of the DUN election, not Parliament.
BN has 134 MPs and a comfortable lead of 46 Parliament seats over the opposition which has a total of 88 MPs in the current Dewan Rakyat, including PSM’s one in Sungai Siput.
The eight Parliament seats that TMI implies PAS will lose – a debatable proposition – are as follows:
- Pokok Sena (Kedah)
- Parit Buntar & Bukit Gantang (Perak)
- Kota Raja, Shah Alam, Sepang & Hulu Langat (Selangor)
- Temerloh (Pahang)
These constituencies are spread over four states and will have little impact on each of the states individually because who gets to form the state government is determined by the number of Aduns, not the number of MPs.
Ubah: Exchange MCA for PAS
I’ve previously suggested that ruling party should swap the MCA for PAS. Since the MCA media are campaigning so vigorously for the DAP Christians, the media owner should similarly go away to the Pakatan side and stop stabbing BN in the back.
The majority of the voters in six out of MCA’s current seven seats is Malay. In other words, MCA is squatting in Malay constituencies. PAS can win these seats hands down should they be allowed to contest them on the BN ticket.
And it’s not necessarily true that PAS will lose those seats listed above by TMI. The portal is simply exaggerating the role of the Chinese as kingmaker. In truth, the Chinese had already fired all their ammo during the “ini kali lah” general election and have no more surprises to spring.
What pivots can the Chinese make when already 90 percent are staunchly pro-opposition?
The table above shows the spectrum according to racial composition, collated using the percentages of Chinese voters. From the table we can also see that the MCA is a useless asset.
- Every single one of the 15 Parliament seats with more than 70% Chinese voters went to DAP.
- All six Parliament seats having between 60-69% Chinese voters also went entirely to the DAP.
- Of the nine seats with 50-59% Chinese voters, eight were won by DAP too and one by PKR.
In short, the MCA was a complete washout.
We’ll take Temerloh as one example of how TMI has deliberately misrepresented the PAS pullout scenario.
The parliament constituency of Temerloh in Pahang has 64.3% Malay voters, 24.2% Chinese and 8.7% Indians.
In GE13, PAS’s ustaz Nasrudin Hassan at Tantawi obtained 28,267 votes to beat Umno’s Saifuddin Abdullah who had 27,197 votes. PAS won the seat with a majority of 1,070 votes.
So we see that Umno has 27,197-voter support. PAS has 28,267 albeit a good number of them Chinese swing votes.
Let’s say in GE14, the opposition candidate is a PKR Malay.What chance do you think the man has against the combined forces of PAS-Umno?
Don’t forget,Temerloh has a 64.3% Malay electorate and both PAS and Umno have the Malay ground nicely covered between them whereas PKR remains the weakest party in terms of groundwork.
Lain kali Pakcik kibar bendera biru, ya
The game will change once the emergent and ascendent factor of Malay unity is introduced into the equation.
TMI puts forward a hypothetical situation of zero sum game, i.e. PAS’s loss will be Umno’s gain.
On the contrary, it will be a win-win situation and PAS will emerge stronger.
You must remember that under the rules of the new changed game, Umno and PAS will no longer be rivals but working hand in glove.
PAS only stepping stone for DAP to fish Malay votes
TMI’s editorial says: “So, why would PAS want to be an alliance partner, which disobeys and practices double standards in the context of the Selangor MB post.”
Helen says: “Disobeys”? PAS is expected to “obey” and salute.
TMI says: “If Hadi and PAS insist on putting their personal interests first, it will not be able to go back to Pakatan. And if this continued until the next election, BN and Umno will definitely have an advantage.”
Helen says: Quite correct that the Pakatan door will close on PAS but the BN window of opportunity will open. The benefit is mutual to Umno and to PAS.
Anwar will be in Sungai Buloh, lah
TMI says: “For Barisan, this scenario [status quo] is their worst nightmare. For sure, BN will see the influence of their enemy become wider and steadier with the economic strength in Selangor. In two to three years’ time, Anwar and his compatriots in Pakatan Rakyat will be able to carve strategies and policies even better than BN.”
Helen says: In two to three years’ time, Anwar will be in the middle of serving his jail sentence in Sungai Buloh.
Pause and reflect: If Pakatan have been unable to carve better strategies and policies in the last six years since they gained power in the most developed states, why should anyone believe the TMI‘s prognosis that DAP-PKR will perform in the next two to three years?
What has PAS gained from Pakatan in the last half a dozen years? Nampak macam hanya PKR dan DAP aje yang untung.
Azmin Ali heads PKNS. Other plum quangos have been distributed among the PKR and DAP carpetbaggers. PAS has been left out in the cold. Even the local council seats are not offered PAS that are commensurate with the contribution of the party as Pakatan’s foremost hewers of wood and drawers of water.
TMI dubs it the ‘Hadi move’ pula
PKR, DAP and the unscrupulous English media that avidly support the oppo parties have been grossly insulting PAS and painting a false picture of the unfolding drama.
TMI says: “The focus here is not the criticisms directed at Khalid and his ouster… [b]ut at the implication of ‘Hadi’s move’ on the Islamist party he heads.”
Helen says: Hullo! It’s the ‘Kajang move’ lah. Jangan buat bodoh sepat and shift the blame. TMI is being so sneaky. Just like the Sneaky Star.
TMI says: “The stubbornness of Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim who has refused to follow his party’s consensus and give way to a more suitable MB candidate…”
Helen says: It’s the stubbornness of Anwar Ibrahim, duh. And by what criteria can Kak Wan be measured as “a more suitable MB candidate”, pray tell?
TMI says: “If Hadi allows his personal judgement to overtake the consensus in Pakatan …” / “…Hadi Awang’s open support for Khalid, which was done without his party’s approval and at the same time, he has turned his back on the spirit of mutual agreement in Pakatan Rakyat.”
Helen says: It is Anwar who is trying to make the Selangor MB seat his personal fiefdom.
For TMI to claim that Hadi “turned his back on the spirit of mutual agreement” is the most blatantly outrageous act of mispointing finger and misplacing blame.
In the GE13 election campaign, Khalid spearheaded the Pakatan challenge in Selangor with everybody’s consent. Then suddenly Anwar springs this surprise. PAS was not consulted when PKR decided to remove Khalid. So who has actually breached “the spirit of mutual agreement”?
I hope PAS realise by now how obnoxious these Christian cheerleaders – TMI is Malaysia’s most preeminent pro-Christian media organization – can be.
PAS is the oldest party
TMI says: “PAS has to remember and realise that it could become a strong opposition party by cooperating with PKR and DAP.”
Helen says: PAS was established on 24 Nov 1951. DAP was registered 18 Mac 1966. PKR the One Eye Party was only founded on 4 April 1999.
Urm, TMI wants PAS to realise that it could become a strong opposition party only by cooperating with PKR and DAP?
How hilarious, hahaha.
Lemme say again … PAS 1951, DAP 1966 and PKR 1999.
Plateau from GE12 to GE13
TMI says: “The momentum of change that happened in 2008 and 2013 is expected to continue in the next general election, if Pakatan can strengthen their alliance and fulfil its promises of change.”
Helen says: What happened was the Chinese Tsunami. Operative word, “Chinese”. The electoral landscape was changed and devastated due to the flood of Chinese deserting the BN.
From a high of 198 Parliament seats in Ge11, the BN’s standing plunged to 140 seats in GE12. The year 2008 was annus horribilis where BN suffered a loss of 48 seats under Sleepy Dollah’s watch.
The momentum of the BN’s seat depletion was however somewhat successfully arrested in 2013. From GE12 to GE13, BN suffered a loss of only a further seven seats, decreasing to 133 from 140. As you can see from the line graph above, the BN losses as well as the Pakatan gains have more or less plateaued.
Umno actually improved its performance in GE13
Umno had 79 seats in 2008 and 88 seats in 2013. So in fact, Umno’s seats increased by nine from GE12 to GE13. The Malay BN anchor party has recovered, comparatively speaking, under Najib.
The BN losses in 2013 were due solely to the wipe-out of all the coalition’s Chinese parties, decimated by the DAP (see bar chart above).
Umno did not fare badly.
Sneaky, sneaky TMI is misrepresenting the situation
TMI says: “Based on this, PAS central leaders will push Hadi to pull back his support for Khalid…” / “…Hadi will be able to see the bigger picture with Pakatan (taking over Putrajaya) compared to his personal support for Khalid in Selangor.”
Helen says: TMI is lobbing an auto suggestion as to what it hopes the PAS leaders will do. Nice try.
And please observe that TMI is still attempting to spin the blame on Hadi for his purported “personal support for Khalid”. Geez. Such sneakiness.
Thankfully, while TMI may be de rigueur reading for the evangelistas, Khalid Gereja and Mujahid, I doubt that the portal has much traction with Hadi, Nik Aziz, the Majlis Syura or the Dewan Ulama.
BELOW: The BN states
Synergy in the Malay heartland
TMI says: “PAS will go back to being a small party with influence only in the east coast. Its future will be darker when Umno takes advantage of Pakatan splitting and PAS’s weakness to keep Kelantan.”
Helen says: Wrong.
Collaboration between Umno and PAS means that PAS will rule Kelantan with a little help from Umno. However in tandem, Umno will rule Kedah and Terengganu with a little help from PAS.
The Kedah MB Mukhriz Mahathir is an inclusive chap while the Terengganu MB (in TMI‘s own words) is an “active personality and one who is well-received by most party members”.
What will happen is that PAS will acquire a greater role in the governance of the Melayu pekat states. Moreover, as the conduct of the series of by-elections in Sg Limau, Galas, Manek Urai and Kuala Terengganu have shown, the relationship between PAS and Umno in the Malay heartland is cordial and warming up.
BELOW: The 3 Pakatan states currently
Penang, last oppo standing
When the PAS-Umno unity takes effect, the only opposition state left will be Penang.
Penang is Chinese-majority where the DAP have their stronghold and the Chinese Penangites have attitude. So let’s just see what they’ll eventually do in a Malay-ruled Malay-sia where the state governments of the rest of the country behave differently, think differently and dream in bahasa Melayu.
To quote the TMI editorial – some PAS leaders see their party’s cooperation with Pakatan as “diluting their struggles in upholding an Islamic government” whereas “several high-ranking [PAS] leaders are already involved in discussions with Umno to strengthen the Malay and Islam’s domination”.
The 90 percent Chinese voters who gleefully killed MCA and destroyed the BN “racist” (DAP’s label) formula should take note.
PAS is the DAP’s evangelistas’ Iron Dome
The TMI editorial plays the time-worn card of dangling the Putrajaya carrot in front of PAS upon the promise of forming the next federal government. That is a big ‘if’.
A surer thing is that the PAS leaders will be made cabinet ministers and very likely the de facto Minister for Religious Affairs, appointed senators and provided other plum positions if they supplant the MCA.
Most importantly, a united Malay-Muslim polity can save lafaz ‘Allah’ from the snatch thieves. Presently the Christians feel emboldened because they believe they are shielded in their actions by the PAS people.
Do PAS care to be unwittingly complicit in the aggressive evangelista movement that is undermining Islam? Imagine, if the lafaz ‘Allah’ were allowed to be used freely what will ensue … like “Rumah Allah” (House of God).
Who is TMI kidding?
TMI expresses its wishful thinking that “the grassroots of the Islamist party will reject any attempt to cooperate with Umno” and that “other than the DAP, the PAS and PKR election machinery is not only unprepared, but could also be bickering among themselves to bring any focus to the campaign”.
The portal is clutching at straws. It is the not PAS’s but the PKR machinery that is kaput. Anwar’s party can’t even conclude its election after 3½ months. The DAP party machinery is plagued with pirated software, if one recalls their Excel fiasco.
TMI concludes with a fortune cookie slip saying that Pakatan “has the potential to reach Putrajaya. Just ask the majority of voters who crossed PAS, PKR and DAP at the last general election”.
Dunno about the PAS folks but the majority of the voters who pangkah Roket in the last election are quite delusional.
Updated: 2.25 pm