With a mere two percent Malay vote swing coupled with five percent Chinese vote swing, Pakatan will snatch 22 Parliament seats from the BN. This will put Pakatan and BN at a dead heat with each side holding 111 seats. See results, http://undi.info/2013p/parlid|-2|2|-5|5|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
Add another two percent Christian vote swing and BN will be kicked out of Putrajaya.
This permutation – Pakatan getting +2% Malay +5% Chinese +2% Christian voters – will win Pakatan the federal government with 112 Parliament seats compared to 110 for BN – see chart below of simulation.
Double click to enlarge
http://undi.info/2013p/parlid|-2|2|-5|5|0|0|0|0|-2|2|0|0
Umno will not self-destruct but BN will be badly hurt
Pabila Tun kritik Najib, puak evangelista akan cucuk dan habih tuang minyak lagi.
Pabila macai-macai Najib serang Tun, kelompok Dapsters bertepuk sorak dan mengadu domba seraya ikut mencaci maki.
The evangelistas are most happy to see Tun go for Najib’s jugular. It’s like manna from heaven.
The gleeful Dapsters are over the moon when Najib’s media consultants counterattack Tun and hitting below the belt.
With the Unstoppable Force and Immovable Object in Umno, BN doesn’t need enemies.
Recall that Anwar’s Sept 16 and Langkah Kajang failed
The foundations of the ruling party are being knocked daily as an unintended consequence of the fight between the ex-premier who was supposed to have retired a dozen years ago (2003) and the sitting prime minister who definitely won’t budge from his seat.
Najib will not let himself be ousted just like there was no compulsion for Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to step down when opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim demanded his resignation on 16 Sept 2008.
In the meantime, the DAP is reaping rewards from the BN’s self-inflicted injuries.
Read also, ‘DAP in charge of all‘
DAP growing stronger by the day
While Umno fight among themselves, the DAP evangelistas are “moving from strength to strength, faith to faith and glory to glory”.
Madame Speaker Hannah Yeoh is also personally on the “move from strength to strength”.
Winning the battle, losing the war
With Tun concentrating on the removal of Najib, and the PM concentrating on staying put in office, the focus of the DAP evangelista is on riling up the Christians in Sarawak in preparation for the state election.
Before the BN knows it, DAP would have pulled the rug out from under their feet.
Sabah and Sarawak seats that will be lost
Based on 2013 data, Pakatan will be able to seize seven Parliament seats from BN should there be a 10 percent swing among the non-Muslim bumiputera voters in Sabah and Sarawak (all other factors, i.e. Malay, Chinese, Indian support being equal).
Using an analytics software to simulate the outcome, it is calculated that seven constituencies – Kota Marudu, Beaufort, Ranau, Keningau, Pensiangan, Mas Gading and Baram – will fall to the opposition if more native Christians should desert the BN.
http://undi.info/2013p/parlid|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|-10|10|0|0
Umno’s ugly infighting will tilt over the fence sitters
The undi.info Parliament Voters Swing Simulator tool also calculates that a five percent shift by the Malay electorate alone ceteris paribus (with other conditions remaining the same) will give Pakatan 30 more seats.
With a five percent Malay vote swing, Pakatan will sweep these 30 seats from north Jerlun, Merbok, Balik Pulau, etc through the peninsular heartland Cameron Highlands, Bentong, Titiwangsa, Setiawangsa, etc and down to the south Muar, Pasir Gudang, Pulai, etc.
Alternatively, with just a mere two percent Malay vote swing, Pakatan will still gain 10 seats from the BN. See results, http://undi.info/2013p/parlid|-2|2|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
BELOW: Infographic slide presentated by Muhyiddin at the 2014 Umno general assembly
Muhyiddin: “BN will lose with only a 2% vote swing”
Party deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin in his speech to the Umno general assembly on 25 Nov 2014 said:
“Maka dalam perhimpunan kali ini, saya ingin mengajak saudara dan saudari supaya ikhlas dan jujur dengan diri kita sendiri. Kaji adakah parti kita berada dalam keadaan yang selamat? Adakah parti kita disenangi oleh sebahagian besar rakyat? Adakah parti kita bakal beroleh kemenangan dalam pilihanraya akan datang?”
Muhyiddin also said that based on GE13 stats, 44 BN Parliament seats are “grey” – see chart above – where the ruling party won with small majorities of between 0.1 and 5.9 percent.
He warned that with a drop of two percent popular support, the BN haul of Parliament seats will be reduced to 103. A simple majority in Parliament requires a minimum of 112 seats. “BN will lose,” he declared.
“Dua peratus bukan banyak, kalau saudara kira bahagian parlimen, kalau undi sekian banyak, kiralah dua peratus turun, maka kita akan ada dalam keadaan amat berbahaya,” tegas beliau. See 29 Nov 2014 FMT report – ‘Berubah atau mungkin ditukar- Muhyiddin‘
What the DAP will do to you
The Selangor Speaker submits an amendment (new inclusion) to the House rules to make it compulsory for the opposition leader to also chair the Public Accounts Committee.
The House which Pakatan controls with a 4/5 majority passes the proposed amendment. So now the BN Adun who is opposition leader will be forced to become the PAC chairman.
Since the BN Aduns don’t want to be steamrolled into rubber stamping the PAC, they refuse to pick an opposition leader from among the BN (well, actually Umno only) ranks.
BELOW: Hannah Yeoh’s tweet a couple of days ago (Apr 15)
Membawa rebah
As a result of the BN stonewalling, Madame Speaker is unable to compel YB Sungai Burong or any of his Adun colleagues to hold the post of PAC chairman despite the Selangor DUN already having approved the new regulation.
And what does the DAP do after it has been checkmated? Pakatan appoints DAP Adun YB Sekinchan as acting PAC chairman. Eh, but what happened to that new rule which Pakatan recently created mandating that the opposition leader must also chair the PAC? Ketara sekali diorang buat ikut suka hati jer.
This episode goes to show that it is not the process of law which DAP-Pakatan cares about but the power they have at present to do things their way by bulldozing through whatever they like. (Bahasa Melayu version @ ‘DAP berkuasa, sekarang sudah buat ikut suka hati di Selangor‘)
Neither Tun Mahathir nor Datuk Seri Najib cares about rescuing us Selangorians from the oppressive clutches of the DAP evangelistas. This dynamic duo battling each other unto death will also inadvertently cause some of the rest of the states to fall to Pakatan in GE14.
Helen Ang 
And the BN will join the DAP and we can kiss Righteousness goodbye!
If Najib doesn’t play his cards right and the DAP succeeds in its incitement, there is indeed a possibility that the Dayak and Kadazan (thinking about secession) parties may pull out of the BN.
That’s my fear, they will secede with weak government at the centre BN or DAP. DAP has no governance experience save it’s Singapore model which is not a very robust one with it’s tendency to interfere and control and will not work for complex innovation driven economies like ours which have to run pretty much on their own.
“complex innovation driven economies like ours…”???
Really?
Which competitiveness rankings are you referring to?
And what are the “innovations” driving the Malaysian economy? Would you care to list them for our benefit?
Trouble has brewed for too long and now the foul dish is cooked. Trouble brews when the Chief Cook is busy playing cards when he should be focusing on the people’s banquet.
Should Melayu to be thought a lesson ?, 500 years aren’t enough , memang Melayu mudah lupa.
Better that than Najib’s arrogance.
Am raising a hypothetical question and would like your thoughts on this.
Let’s assume the DAP captures Putrajaya and manages the country a lot better than what BN has done under Najib, I wonder if a lot of the diehards here will still be against them, or will they embrace them?
Assuming some, if not most Malay rights are compromised under the DAP rule, but the country performs a lot better economically and GDP per head increases significantly, will this be enough to sway the opinions here?
Read a critical line by Syed Akbar on Malay Rights, http://syedsoutsidethebox.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-enlarged-democratic-space-crap.html
He removes his articles after a few days, so the url above will not work after a brief time lapse.
Well, if the various acronyms (such as TPP, AIIB etc) being bandied about come into being, Malaysia should worry about where it fits in as far as the new pecking order in the region is concerned.
If we are shortsighted enough to focus on our own navels and blithely disregard the external environment, the awakening will be both rude and painful.
What price sovereignty then, if you can’t go it on your own?
Those of us who set up companies, battle for talent, customers, market share and profits, those of us who are on the “front lines” of competition will obviously have a different take on the matter than armchair bloggers and poseurs.
Jangan mimpi la. Go sell your BS elsewhere. Same moronic statement from DAP who claimed that they could find MH 370 if they were in power.
Are you saying that it’s completely ridiculous to even suggest that DAP or any other opposition party could not manage the country better than the rubble masquerading as the government is atm? If you represent the majority of BN supporters, then I think BN are fairly safe as their core support will never leave them.
All I know is that inflation has gone through the roof and corruption is at an all time high. Why should we support a bunch of politicians who are stealing from the people to maintain their luxurious lifestyles? Dr M is not wrong when he comments on what has been happening.
Err no. You want to have good governance you got to sort out differences between pakatan party. How to manage the country if one goes to the left, one to the right and the other directionless.
Haven’t you see the dire state of roads n infra in pakatan states? Shambolic?! And im not talking district such as hulu selangor or sabak bernam but shah alam. The capital state!
Not to mention waste management. And the water fiasco that’s never end. So no. You fail on state level. Dont dream of managing on federal level.
While Umno fight among themselves, the DAP evangelistas are “moving from strength to strength, faith to faith and glory to glory”.
Well, I don’t know how well the City Harvest Church pastors here are going to manage Malaysia, in view of how their sister church pastors have been performing negatively in Singapore …
http://therealsingapore.com/content/sun-ho-kong-hee-and-failure-task
Dont dreaming, I came from penang , Dap done nothing here, all the development here still come from previous goverment , the only deverlopment that Dap done is building alot of expensive condo’s and wipe out malay area in the island . I dont think they will be a good goverment , they are useless in finding a new investment for the state economic improvement.
The best thing about your blog is that I can imagine that the opposition is a well oiled machine ready to overthrow BN. The truth is that DAP will struggle to hold their current seats, PAS will lose a few urban seats but gain a few rural seats and PKR will be crushed. Forget swings based on the level of support last time, that support is not there, nor is the coordination between the parties. What is clear is that UMNO and Najib will emerge stronger post GE14 – bad luck Dr M and HA.
The DAP will hold their current seats because they’ve cornered the market on the Chinese-majority urban constituencies.
And by the year 2020, it’s projected that 70 percent of Malaysians will be living in urban areas. Urbanization is very rapid in the country, and the tech-savvy and propaganda-slick DAP is better equipped to appeal to an evolving urban electorate.
PAS may lose a few of the suburban seats they won previously courtesy of non-Malay voters and they may also regain some rural seats if the Malay heartland is unhappy with Umno. But the gains by PAS are nonetheless not BN seats even should Pakatan break up.
Umno will remain the No.1 party for many years to come. There’s no challenger to Umno’s pole position. However Umno remaining unscathed does not equate victory for BN.
In GE13, despite Umno’s comparatively strong/stronger showing, the Chinese-dominated BN components of MCA, Gerakan and SUPP plus LDP were nonetheless swept away by the tsunami.
In GE12, MIC lost badly and some Umno seats were also affected by the Indian makkal sakti wave.
Like I’ve said, either Tun or Najib may win the battle, Umno will survive as Big Brother but BN will lose the war. It depends on which taikor – either Umno or DAP – can manage to form a rainbow coalition.
In the event of a hung Parliament, Umno may be able to get PAS on its side. The DAP may be able to get the Dayak and Kadazan (Christian) parties.
Learn the Obama lesson: He did not receive greater support of the majority race – the whites.
However he got close to 9.5/10 support from the blacks, 7/10 from the Asians, 7/10 from the Latinos and 8/10 from the gays. So it is the Dems whose presidential candidate is an ethnic minority occupying the White House and not the party supported by the whites (Republicans).
If you wanna know what DAPsters gonna do to us. This would be it [YouTube].
Simple. Malaysia would Be like Singapore. Everyone (5 percent) will prosper. If you are filthy rich dominating the power and economy.
Everyone else (95 percent) gets to watch and suffer and compete equally with filthy rich baestards. Sounds fair to you?
Don’t ditch BN. Ditch incompetent leaders stupider than yourself. And we’re safe. If you got the balls to ditch them of course.
re: “This episode goes to show that it is not the process of law which DAP-Pakatan cares about but the power they have at present to do things their way by bulldozing through whatever they like.”
On one occasion, Yan Hui asked his teacher Confucius, “Are there any typical characteristics in the speech of inferior men? A man of virtue has to be perceptive.”
Confucius replied, “A superior man speaks with his acts. His words are matched by his deeds. In everything he says and does, he practices the principles promoted by the saints. An inferior man only shows off his eloquence. He is quick at making demands on others and finding fault with others, while contributing nothing himself.
A superior man treats others with sincerity. When he sees friends violating ethics, he warns them of the consequences and persuades others to act out of their conscience. His words come from his heart because he genuinely cares about the well-being of others. As a result, such friendships will deepen afterwards.
The inferior men appear to have formed an alliance for making trouble. However, they cannot help but quarrel and pull knives on each other’s back.”
“Ditch incompetent leaders stupider than yourself.”
Sister, it seems a tall order to act upon – in view of the limits of our own intelligence and the human problem of self-conceit:
“Educating the Heart and Mind-Creativity” [YouTube]
Excellent analysis. Yang ruginya bukan UMNO dan komponennya. Yang rugi adalah Islam kerana keadilan sejagat @ fitrah telah digagalkan oleh Umno, PAS dan pkr. Suasana kebaikan masyarakat Islam di kampong akan huru hara bila Dap ambil putrajaya.
I wish to see Malaysians work together to develop the Tanah Melayu. Ahli politik menghancurkan negara ini….
Thanks helen For sharing.
And all these happen just because Mamakutty wants things done “My way”.
Who’s the Boss dalam syarikat?
Baik cepat pecat pekerja yang ingat lebeh terer daripada Boss.
Jambatan kat selat tu untuk menolong kroninya Syed Albukary lagi kut. Kan Pelabuhan, Lapangan Terbang Senai dll semua dikuasai beliau. Berpusing-pusing bagi alasan lain pulak. Konon demi maruah negara lah, Bangsa Lah, Agama lah, kedaulatan lah dan sebagainya. Along Arab tu dah sampai minta bayar kut kerana jasa bakti yang telah diberikan selama ni?
Ni wayang Mamakutty mungkin episod terakhir beliau. Penontonnya semakin berkurangan. Yang anehnya, penyokong pembangkang PR merupakan penonton paling ramai antara peminatnya. Filem ni nampak hebat dengan adanya Malaysian Soros, Malaysian Monica Lewinsky, Malaysia Muhammed Ali tetapi isi cerita kosong.
Nampaknya ramai dah kena diduburi oleh Mamakutty yang walaupun usianya lebih tua daripada Anwar.
PM harus bagi Mamakutty filem Clint Eastwood untuk tonton kat Sg. Buloh. “Go ahead, Make my day”
Frank Sinatra akan menemani Mamakutty tak lama lagi.
Oi Dandy! Dandy!! Dandy!!! Come over here boy ….shoooo quiet boy quiet ….no poooh here boy no no no!
Hi Helen,
Rasanya analisis ni tak berapa tepat , walaupun Tun M tidak berkonflik dengan Najib , BN tetap akan tewas kerana isyarat telah jelas akhir-akhir ini , contoh pengundi bawah 40 tahun memang tak suka status quo kepimpinan BN sekarang bukan mereka benci BN dan pengundi ketegori ini sudah menjankau 55% menjelang PRU 14 , Terlalu banyak cerita-cerita skandal najib dan rosmah yang tak dapat ditutup setelah Tun M buat serangan ini telah memburukkan imej BN ,Kalau kita buat servey dari hari ke hari reputasi najib munurun dengan teruk , kesan GST isu kenaikan harga barang terus memadamkan polisi nak jadi popular najib macam Brim , kemudian kejatuhan ringgit tak terkawal kesan harga barang import naik seperti makanan . najib hanya membisu dan cukup waktu keluar negara lawatan , Tun m walaupun di fitnah mamak , tapi yang mamak anuar peliwat , beliau mempunyai pendekatan berbeza , semasa memerintah walau pun timbul banyak masalah , tuduhan dan cabarang kepada ekonomi negara ,akhirnya dapat selesai dangan sempurna . Saya besar semasa era Tun razak , Tun hussain dan Tun M saya semasa era Tun M lagi tenteram dan nampak perubahan pembangunan , tapi paling teruk era sekarang sentiasa rasa meluat dengan kerajaan walaupun nak ambil hati rakyat dengan Brim tapi dengan menteri-menteri yang suka melukut tepi gantang makin meluat , cuma orang macam Dandy masih tidur dan buta hati untuk faham ,
Berkenaan dengan peluang DAP memerintah dan dapat rampas putrajaya ini analisis syok sendiri , Sukar percaya la sukar dia tak boleh harap , kristian sabah ,serawak semata-mata , ia walau pun memerintah tak lama , kerana antara parti dalam PR semua ada agenda tersembunyi masing-masing , bila dapat kuasa pasti akan konflik, Dap tak akan boleh menang bersendirian , kecuali semua orang melayu di semenanjung ini dapat dirasuk pemikiran mereka dan mereka terus undi DAP ya itu boleh , kakalu BN hadapi masalah di PRU 14 kemungkinan besar akan ada kerajaan tergantung , Dan BN maupun UMNO nak berjaya semula harus membersihkan parti ini dengan status quo pemimpin baru dan muda, imej parti yang batu ,budaya parti yang baru dan perjuangan yang baru lebih kearah bangsa malaysia , Tapi perlembagaan Malaysia jangan diubah atau diusik kerana orang melayu akan bantah.
Dandy,
You are best that Najib could find ,as defender , going everywhere maki hamun orang ,what does you think it’s does reflex ?.
Helen,
Many times I mentioned the reason why UMNO reigns supreme in local politics. It is quite simple actually. The only reason is UMNO manages to earn the lion share of Malays votes. and Malays happen to be the biggest racial group in Malaysia
But it is not impossible to dethrone UMNO. UMNO members know that themselves. The Quran reminds Muslims that Allah SWT can grant power or take it even faster than split seconds.
UMNO’s result in 2013 is stronger than its performance in previous 2008 election. But for reasons known to UMNO itself, it chooses to behave like losers.
And despite the fact that Chinese has abandon UMNO in totality and this fact is accepted by the whole planet, Najib still unable to accept reality that the Chinese in general wants to bury UMNO.
As for Tun, i believe this time he has gone overboard. He repeatedly asked questions that had been answered. And Tun put Najib in very bad light by agreeing to see Sirul’s mother.
Many times i cautioned UMNO for overstating the influence of Chinese votes. Chinese with a quarter population of Malaysia is no doubt a factor to be reckoned with.BUt they alone cant dethrone BN( or more importantly) UMNO
But UMNO still wants to put MCA in Tanjong Piai, Kulim despite MCA members voting DAP.
kalau dah bangang tu bangang juga la
re: he repeatedly asked questions that had been answered.
Which question? For example, the murder to Altantuya. Najib replied ‘Saya tak kenal Altantuya’. But Mahathir questioned ‘What is the motive of Sirul/Azilah to kill Altantuya? Were both of them ordered to do so? This is not answered. Not even by the court that tried the case. Unprecedented for a murder case that did not establish the motive of killers. While PTPTN defaulters are blacklisted from going overseas, murder criminal in court trial is free to leave Msia and seek refuge in Australia. Sirul has caused major embarrassment to the Msian legal system.
Bnm,
What do you expect Najib to say? By Tun asking Najib the question, he implied Najib is involved.
Do you have any evident to implicate Najib? By all mean bring it on.
By Tun meeting Sirul’s mother, Tun is saying he believe najib is involved.
Sirul said he was ordered by Azilah. Why azliah never mentioned anything in court. I do not know who is guilty. But I know one who is unjustly implicated: Najib and UMNO.
SA,
re: he implied Najib is involved.
That is why Najib must respond in a firm manner. Answer like ‘Saya tak kenal Altantuya’ is not sufficient. The court has given judgement that Azilah and Sirul murdered Altantuya. Good job on that. Next question ‘Why killed her (the motive)?’ This is not answered at all. How can motive need not be established in a murder trial?
re: Do you have any evident to implicate Najib? By all mean bring it on.
Let me ask you. Do you have any evidence to exonerate Najib? How would ordinary citizens like you and me will have evidence to implicate/absolve Najib? That is why the court and police needs to establish the murder motive. Sadly, both institutions failed to do so. Imagine that you are Altantuya’s father. You will be asking ‘Why killed my daughter’? Imagine the suffering. Just like the family members of those on board 370. Until now no answer on the whereabout of the plane.
re: But I know one who is unjustly implicated: Najib and UMNO.
More reason for Najib to sufficiently explain himself.