The most important detail of the Rompin by-election result is that the total votes for PAS remained constant – almost no reduction.
- Hasan Arifin (Umno) got 23,796 votes
- Nazri Ahmad (PAS) got 14,901 votes
- Jamaluddin Jarjis (Umno) got 30,040 votes
- Nuridah Mohd Salleh (PAS) got 14,926 votes
In the interval of exactly two years between 5 May 2013 (13th general election) and 5 May 2015 (yesterday), Umno lost 6,244 votes. PAS only lost 25 votes.
Turnout dropped drastically
- GE13 : 85.9%
- By-election : 73%
Since there is no change in the level of support for PAS, then the logical conclusion is that it is the BN voters who were not motivated to come out to vote.
- GE13 : 883 votes
- By-election : 591 votes
- JJ’s majority in May 2013 : 15,114 votes
- Hasan’s majority in May 2015 : 8,895 votes
Massive drop in majority. This is bad news for the BN and is a harbinger of the trend of pro-establishment people choosing to abstain from voting.
Almost the same number of roughly 14,900 voters gave their support to PAS in 2013 and 2015. It is the BN voters who mogok or clearly boycotted the by-election.
The bottomline is that the pro-establishment crowd are very unhappy with the regime.
Die lor like this
This is what will happen in GE14 if the present trajectory remains unchanged.
The ABU people will be as fanatical, if not more, as they were “ini kali lah” in 2013.
The 95 percent support – see Straits Times report below (on Permatang Pauh) – by the Chinese will be maintained or even increased.
BN has lost the Hindraf segment of Indian support which it had in 2013 when Waytha Moorthy hopped on board.
Minorities can win elections – Obama did
The DAP is going all out on its efforts to agitate the Christians and natives in Sabah and Sarawak. A number of Christian-majority seats held by BN could fall to the DAP in the same way that BN lost a raft of semi-urban peninsular seats in GE13.
Think the ‘Obama Effect’ and how an ethnic minority man won the White House despite his white opponent from the Republican party getting more white votes (the majority race) than did the Democrats’ black presidential candidate.
Years ago Tun Daim already warned that the DAP are “streetfighters” (his word). They wear knuckle dusters and aim to punch your lights out when they land a blow.
If BN wants to survive GE14 and hang on to Putrajaya, then it has to go on war footing N-O-W!!
BELOW: Infographic slide presentated by Muhyiddin at the 2014 Umno general assembly
Muhyiddin: “BN will lose with only a 2% vote swing”
Party deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin in his speech to the Umno general assembly on 25 Nov 2014 said:
“Maka dalam perhimpunan kali ini, saya ingin mengajak saudara dan saudari supaya ikhlas dan jujur dengan diri kita sendiri. Kaji adakah parti kita berada dalam keadaan yang selamat? Adakah parti kita disenangi oleh sebahagian besar rakyat? Adakah parti kita bakal beroleh kemenangan dalam pilihanraya akan datang?”
Muhyiddin also said that based on GE13 stats, 44 BN Parliament seats are “grey” – see chart above – where the ruling party won with small majorities of between 0.1 and 5.9 percent.
He warned that with a drop of two percent popular support, the BN haul of Parliament seats will be reduced to 103. A simple majority in Parliament requires a minimum of 112 seats. “BN will lose,” he declared.
“Dua peratus bukan banyak, kalau saudara kira bahagian parlimen, kalau undi sekian banyak, kiralah dua peratus turun, maka kita akan ada dalam keadaan amat berbahaya,” tegas beliau. See 29 Nov 2014 FMT report – ‘Berubah atau mungkin ditukar- Muhyiddin‘
DAP attitude is it’s a Dog-Eat-Dog world out there
The DAP has made no bones that they wanna kill Umno – that’s what the ABU! ABU! ABU! demented chant is all about. Pleeeaaase! A war general is what BN needs.
DAP’s shoot-to-kill policy
Najib has to take a tougher stance. If not, support for the BN will keep depleting and depleting so that by the time 2018 rolls around, BN will go into the general election as the desperate underdog.
And here is my frank opinion of the DAP. In my earlier posting yesterday, I made a mention of an abused dog in Foshan, Guangdong that had its eyes gouged out and its body tortured with knife stabs – gory photo HERE. That is what the DAP will do to Umno.
It is the fate waiting to befall Umno if the leadership still refuses to get its act together. The DAP is vicious!
BELOW: 95 percent Chinese voted for Anwar in Permatang Pauh