With unity, Malays can grab Selangor back

June 8, 2015 at 10:04 pm 62 comments

Umno has nothing to lose and everything to gain if a state reelection were to be held in Selangor.

PAS ceasing co-operation with DAP will rock the political equation. Once PAS Malays stop aligning themselves with Pakatan, the DAP will naturally succumb to the Malay in-built advantage of rural weightage.

I’ll show you how a quarter (24.0%) of the Pakatan “popular vote” in Selangor actually came only from the DAP’s Top 10 state seats alone.

My purpose is to tell you that ‘size’, i.e. Pakatan’s much touted “popular vote” muscle, does not matter. It’s just depends on how you look at it and what you wanna do about it. Now please pay close attention to the data.

There are 56 state seats in Selangor. The most densely populated ones are held by DAP. The most sparsely populated ones are held by Umno.

MadameSpeaker

The top 10 DUNs in Selangor where the candidate obtained the biggest majority relative to the voter turnout are:

Constituency – Winning Candidate – Party

1. Damansara Utama – Yeo Bee Yin – DAP

2. Seri Kembangan – Ean Yong Hian Wah – DAP

3. Bukit Gasing – Rajiv Rishyakaran – DAP

4. Kota Alam Shah – V. Ganabatirau – DAP

5. Subang Jaya – Hannah Yeoh – DAP

6. Kampung Tunku – Lau Weng San – DAP

7. Bukit Lanjan – Elizabeth Wong – PRK

8. Kinrara – Ng Sze Han – DAP

9. Pandamaran – Tan Pok Shyong – DAP

10. Teratai – Tiew Way Kheng – DAP

Salient features of the Top 10 list above:

  • Nine out of the ten biggest majorities in Selangor were attained by DAP
    .
  • All of the winning candidates are either Chinese or Indian; there is not a single Malay among them
    .
  • The evangelical Christian factor is clearly visible

Hannah Yeoh Ugly Pendatang

Let’s examine the Top 10 in a little more detail.

All these areas registered high voter turnout of 80 percent and above.

DAP’s Yeo Bee Yin obtained a whopping majority of 30,689 votes – the biggest in Selangor. Her area Damansara Utama has 83.4 percent Chinese voters.

Constituency – Majority – Percentage of Chinese Voters in the Electorate

1. Damansara Utama – 30,689 – 83.4%

2. Seri Kembangan – 22,078 – 83.5%

3. Bukit Gasing – 15,842 – 69.2%

4. Kota Alam Shah – 13,369 – 56.9%

5. Subang Jaya – 28,069 – 56.8%

6. Kampung Tunku – 13,685 – 66.8%

7. Bukit Lanjan – 17,200 – 56.7%

8. Kinrara – 14,604 – 59.2%

9. Pandamaran – 9,176 – 59.0%

10. Teratai – 13,646 – 58.6%

Salient features of the Top 10 list above:

  • All ten constituencies above have an absolute Chinese majority of above 50 percent, including the one won by PKR’s Elizabeth Wong
    .
  • With the exception of Pandamaran (Ronnie Liu’s former seat), all the DAP candidates plus Eli Wong had gotten majorities in the five digits

Yeo Bee Yin in fact managed to double the majority obtained by her DAP predecessor; her GE13 majority was 30,689 compared to Dr Cheah Wing Yin’s 15,355 in GE12.

As a matter of side interest, Kota Alam Shah was contested by one of the “Hindraf Five” lawyers who had been detained under ISA. Ganabatirau however stood and won under the DAP banner. Kota Alam Shah has 25.5 percent Indian voters.

Hannah, Elizabeth and Lee Hwa Beng, the MCA former 3-term Adun for Subang Jaya

Hannah, Elizabeth and Lee Hwa Beng, the MCA former 3-term Adun for Subang Jaya

Analysis of the DAP’s Top 10

At No.11 among the Aduns who snagged the biggest margin of victory in Selangor the last election is yet another DAP Yang Berhormat, Ng Tien Chee. Ng won the state seat of Balakong by a majority of 13,542. Balakong has 55.4 percent Chinese voters.

Let’s do the math again for the Top 11, minus PKR’s Elizabeth Wong at No.7.

So how big are the seats in Selangor that were won with the biggest majority? Excluding PKR’s Bukit Lanjan, the remaining Top 10 DUNs (nine seats plus the one at No. 11) are all DAP’s.

Subang Jaya is the biggest – truly gargantuan!

Grotesqueq

Damansara Utama, for example, has a total of 53,394 registered voters. DAP’s Yeo Bee Yin obtained 37,303 votes which is 69.9 percent of the electorate.

Constituency – Total No. of Reg. Voters – No. of Votes Obtained by DAP – Percentage

  • Damansara Utama – 53,394 – 37,303 – 69.9%
  • Seri Kembangan – 37,042 – 27,406 – 74.0%
  • Bukit Gasing – 34,584 – 21,168 – 61.2%
  • Kota Alam Shah – 29,507 – 18,971 – 64.3%
  • Subang Jaya – 61,688 – 40,366 – 65.4%
  • Kampung Tunku – 32,007 – 19,762 – 61.7%
  • Kinrara – 34,241 – 22,333 – 65.2%
  • Pandamaran – 27,594 – 16,311 – 59.1%
  • Teratai – 40,862 – 23,578 – 58.7%
  • Balakong – 42,829 – 25,126 – 58.7%

Salient features of the ten DAP seats listed above:

  • They are all densely populated and having between 30,000 and 60,000 voters on average
    .
  • The level of support for DAP is high, ranging from almost 60% to 75% (calculated on the number of votes obtained by DAP over the total number of registered voters)

HannahBersihWalk

Chinese voters packed like sardines

The DAP seats above are all urban or semi-urban. DAP collected more than a quarter million votes (252,324 votes) in just those 10 seats mentioned.

DAP’s three most popular Aduns – Hannah Yeoh, Yeo Bee Yin & Ean Yong – between them already tallied (40,366 + 37,303 + 27,406 =) 105,075 votes. Meaning these three evangelistas alone command the support of more than 100k voters.

HannahSpeaker

Tunduk wahai Melayu, jangan tak tunduk

Top 10 seats won with the smallest majorities relative to voter turnout

They are all Umno seats and have an absolute Malay majority. All were won against PAS or PKR opponents.

Kota Damansara, for example, has a total of 44,948 registered voters. Umno’s Halimaton Saadiah Bohan won the seat with 16,387 votes and a winning majority of 1,527.

Constituency – Total No. of Reg. Voters – No. of Votes Obtained by Umno – Majority

1. Kota Damansara – 44,948 – 16,387 – 1,527

2. Bukit Melawati – 16,118 – 7,296 – 806

3. Kuang – 24,319 – 11,027 – 1,255

4. Permatang – 19,636 – 9,049 – 1,026

5. Dengkil – 38,400 – 17,801 – 2,317

6. Sungai Panjang – 26,590 – 12,606 – 2,183

7. Sungai Ayer Tawar – 15,187 – 7,096 – 1,416

8. Semenyih – 42,344 – 17,616 – 4,145

9. Jeram – 27,541 – 13,632 – 2,834

10. Batang Kali – 43,578 – 21,189 – 5,398

The Umno results and the DAP results are like chalk and cheese. Shall we compare and contrast?

Altogether, the 10 Umno Aduns, who had won with the smallest majority margin, managed to garner a total of 133,699 votes between them.

Contrast with the top 10 DAP Aduns who had won with the biggest margin in majority. Combined they collected more than a quarter million votes or 252,324.

Or to look at it another way, the DAP Top 3 comprising Hannah and her two evangelista colleagues had 105,075 votes. Ten of Umno’s 12 Aduns had 133,699 votes collectively.

Malay votes split, Umno and PAS evenly matched

Take Kota Damansara won by Umno which has a 56.1 percent Malay majority. The score sheet:

  • Halimaton Saadiah Bohan (Umno) – 16,387
  • Mohd Nasir Hashim (PKR-PSM) – 14,860
  • Ridzuan Ismail (PAS) – 7,312

The votes in Kota Damansara were split three ways. Halimaton’s winning majority was only 1,527.

We’ll compare with a seat won DAP in a Chinese area with a similar percentage in ethnic majority. Subang Jaya with its 56.8 percent Chinese majority voters is closest percentage-wise to Kota Damansara’s 56.1 percent Malay majority.

The Subang Jaya score sheet:

  • Hannah Yeoh (DAP) – 40,366
  • Gan Meng Foo (MCA) – 12,297

Contrast Hannah’s majority of 28,069 to Halimaton’s 1,527. The difference, aside from the vast distance in quantity, is that Hannah had the Chinese and Christian votes solidly behind her.

Whereas in Kota Damansara’s three-cornered affair between Halimaton, Dr Nasir and Ridzuan, the consolidation, either behind race or religion, was not easily apparent.

Let’s take a look at another seat; one that was lost narrowly by Umno to PAS, i.e. Sabak which has 80.3 percent Malay voters.

The Sabak score sheet:

  • Sallehen Mukhyi (PAS) – 9,421
  • Abdul Halim Udin (Umno) – 9,022

So close! Sallehen’s majority was 399 but the number of spoilt votes was already 299.

What we can take away from the data

Umno’s 10 narrowly won seats were supported by pro-establishment voters only half in number to DAP’s 10 seats won on huge majorities.

Umno’s best majority was 5,398 in Batang Kali. DAP’s best majority was 30,689 in Damansara Utama.

Umno’s majority mostly hovered between 1,000 and 3,000. The rest of DAP’s super majority (apart from the two stratospheric evangelista hubs of Subang Jaya and Damansara Utama) averaged between 10,000 and 15,000.

Pakatan keeps boasting that it won the “popular vote” and at the same time taunts BN for its “minority government” (a charge that is false).

In reality, Pakatan only won the “popular vote” due to the extreme ABU behaviour of the Chinese. We can see this from the Selangor data sets.

The huge wins by DAP in the Chinese-majority areas indicate how tremendously lopsided the Chinese voting pattern is. The narrow wins by Umno and PAS who were both evenly matched showed that there was check and balance in the way that the Malays voted.

Such one-sidedness in the Chinese political behaviour can be ascertained from the trend nationwide. The larger the Chinese population in the state, the more rabidly pro-Pakatan the state is.

Hannah Permatang Pauh

GE13 results in 2013

(A)

Penang has the highest percentage of Chinese voters in Malaysia at 53.4 percent. Pakatan receives the strongest support throughout the country in Penang.

  • Pakatan – 67.5 percent of the GE13 popular vote
  • BN – 32.1 percent

(B)

Kuala Lumpur has the second highest percentage of Chinese voters in Malaysia at 52.2 percent. KL displays the second strongest support for Pakatan in the country.

  • Pakatan – 64.7 percent of the GE13 popular vote
  • BN – 34.6 percent

(C)

Roughly one-third (34.0%) of the electorate in Selangor are Chinese and this number is less than in Penang and KL. Selangor has got slightly weaker support for Pakatan compared to Pakatan-crazy Penang and KL.

  • Pakatan – 59.6 percent of the GE13 popular vote
  • BN – 39.4 percent

Penang and Selangor are Pakatan-ruled states while the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur is dominated by Pakatan. KL has 11 parliament seats; Pakatan holds nine (DAP-5, PKR-4) of them while BN has two (Umno-2).

(D)

The other Pakatan state is Kelantan where the Chinese make up a mere 3.73 percent of the voters. Although all three – Penang, Selangor and Kelantan – are under Pakatan rule, it is Kelantan that is less prominently Pakatan if we were to go by the popular vote percentages.

Kelantan:

  • Pakatan – 55.3 percent of the GE13 popular vote
  • BN – 44.6 percent

The GE13 data reveal how the Chinese are the most determinedly politicized voters. The impact of this Chinese acute bias in the three states is clear from the correlation between the percentage of Chinese voters and the strength of support shown Pakatan.

HannahSpeakerRound

SELANGOR REPORT CARD

– DAP contested 15 state seats and won all 15.

– PAS contested 21 and won 15.

– PKR contested 21 and won 14 (on 5 May 2013), including Khalid Ibrahim’s Port Klang.

– Umno contested 35 and won 12.

– MCA contested 14 and won zero.

SelangorDUN

The numbers that matter

– Umno obtained a total of 514,143 votes and 29.2 percent of the ballots cast.

– DAP obtained a total of 311,416 votes and 17.7 percent of the ballots cast.

– PAS obtained a total of 366,546 votes and 20.8 percent of the ballots cast.

– PKR obtained a total of 373,009 votes and 17.7 percent of the ballots cast.

*** The three Pakatan parties received 1,050,971 votes combined which is equal to 59.6 percent of the Selangor popular vote.


However, a quarter (24.0%) of the Pakatan popular vote in Selangor came from the DAP’s Top 10 state seats alone.


The conclusion we can draw from the data is that Pakatan’s impressive popular vote in Selangor is due solely to the DAP’s massive wins in the urban areas.

Nonetheless, despite the DAP’s superlative performance of obtaining more than a quarter million votes in just 10 constituencies, its gigantic size in voter support does not really matter. Rural Umno can get the same number of seats with only half the head count.

Contrast:

•  Umno – Sungai Ayer Tawar – 7,096 votes – one seat
•  DAP – Damansara Utama – 37,303 votes – also one seat

More importantly, the climate today is different from that in May 2013.


khalidPuanSpeaker

Today PAS views the DAP as a Christian party that – to quote PAS Dewan Ulama deputy chairman Dr Nik Mohd Zawawi Salleh – “melakukan penentangan terhadap usaha [PAS] mempertahankan kesucian Islam dan melaksanakan hukum hudud”.

Dr Zawawi also observed that “masyarakat Cina yang dahulunya penganut Buddha menukar agama mereka kepada Kristian” and “perubahan tersebut mula menyaksikan pertembungan antara PAS dan parti bukan Islam yang rata-ratanya Kristian dan diketahui seteru kepada umat Islam dari zaman berzaman”.

Today many Muslim NGOs are up in arms against the DAP whom they view as “pelampau Kristian”.


Hannah Yeoh I want change

ABOVE: Hannah’s “I want change” tweet shortly after the DAP’s stunning success in the Sarawak 2011 state election

The clean sweep made by the ulama faction in the just concluded PAS election is a harbinger of “change” – to borrow the Dapster’s favourite word.

This wind of change is quite capable of blowing a breath of fresh air into the Selangor state administration that reeks of pungent DAP evangelism.

It doesn’t matter that the DAP wins Subang Jaya and Damansara Utama so big as to send their popular vote rocketing sky high. Ultimately it is the party with the most number of seats that will form the government, even if those seats were won through a tiny majority of say, Sweet Sixteen votes.

Umno is currently only occupying one-fifths of the Selangor DUN. The Malay party cannot do any worse than its present standing. On the other hand, Umno might do better to ride on the ‘changed’ Malay sentiment if it can come to some sort of accommodation with PAS.

Umno also has the opportunity to recover for the BN those Malay-majority seats captured by the DAP in GE13.

Sungai Pelek, which was lost by the MCA, has 59.1% Malay, 22.1% Chinese and 15.9% Indian voters while Kuala Kubu Baru which is also in DAP hands has 53 percent non-Chinese voters (32.9% Malay, 20.9% Indian & 3.4% Lain-lain).

There is quite a fair chance for the BN to win back Selangor. It just depends on how capable Umno is of strategizing the smart moves.

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83% of you think Malaysiakini reader ‘Azhar’ is NOT a Malay ‘ PAS a hypocrite if doesn’t quit S’gor govt ’ – reminder from DAP

62 Comments Add your own

  • 1. Mr. Chow  |  June 8, 2015 at 10:28 pm

    A PAS, PKR & UMNO state govt in Selangor will definitely open the chinese eyes. En Bloc rejection of all BN candidates including those in MCA, Gerakan and MIC will result in an all Malay state govt in a very mixed state. We have to thank DAP’s ABU and Ubah strategy for the Chinese to be voted out of government.

    BTW, everyone forgot the prodigal son in the form of TS Khalid Ibrahim, the former MB of Selangor. He’s not in good terms with the PKR and will want to knife Azmin big time with the PAS reps.

    Reply
    • 2. Helen Ang  |  June 8, 2015 at 10:32 pm

      Oredi got example.

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      Reply
      • 3. Mr. Chow  |  June 8, 2015 at 10:40 pm

        If this is not a Chinese Tsunami, I don’t know what is. DAP has been feeding bullshit to the Chinese and they are eagerly lapping it up.

        Reply
        • 4. Helen Ang  |  June 8, 2015 at 10:52 pm

          Even now, the way the Dapsters have been attacking PAS and its ulama post the party election.

          I do not think the Pakatan gomen of S’gor will fall from crossovers even though the numbers are very close. This is b’cos we know from past track record how PAS’s Saari Sungib (Adun Hulu Kelang) and Hasnul Baharuddin (Adun Morib) last time langgar baiah.

          However, the dissolution of the DUN and a fresh state election can pull the rug out from DAP’s feet if Umno and PAS combine forces and (1) do not challenge each other (solution: Umno’s existing seats, PAS don’t challenge and PAS’s existing seats, Umno don’t challenge), and (2) work together and fight the PKR seats.

          I’m game for Khalid Ibrahim’s return as MB.

          Reply
    • 5. Lousy.Engineer  |  June 9, 2015 at 8:14 pm

      DAP is Chinese community’s messiah; messiah to lead us to Holland; you know what “Holland” means in Cantonese lingo? People normally asks, “You want to take us to Holland issit?”

      Reply
      • 6. orangkampung  |  June 9, 2015 at 8:21 pm

        No. What does it mean? Is it a take on that American slang ‘hoe’?

        Reply
        • 7. Lousy.Engineer  |  June 9, 2015 at 10:16 pm

          It means “nowhere”. The “proper” romanization is “hor lan”, but because the sound of the slang is close to the Chinese pronunciation of the Dutch country name, it’s normally written or understood as “Holland”. So when someone says, “You take us to hor lan ar?”; it means you take us to nowhere (lost). Another cruder meaning is asking you to go and die (“You balik hor lan lar!”). Don’t ask me the origin of the diction though, am not a linguistic professor, ha-ha-ha.

          Reply
  • 8. Tok Perak  |  June 8, 2015 at 10:54 pm

    I beg to differ Helen. DAP have make quite an inroad to influence the young muslims. They even dare go to Jordon. What more Diyana & Zairil (Abdullah) recruiting (cadreing?) the young Malays. In the next election I think DAP will be able to stand on their own minus Parti Kencing Rakyat & hamPAS and win .

    Reply
    • 9. Helen Ang  |  June 8, 2015 at 10:59 pm

      re: “DAP have make quite an inroad to influence the young Muslims.”

      Umno is paralyzed.

      PAS now realises that the DAP is a Christian-dominated party. The Muslim NGOs have long been aware. DAP uses sophisticated evangelism to indoctrinate. Umno masih tak sedar-sedar lagi.

      If Umno remains in stasis, then the pro-establishment Malays will begin looking to Isma for leadership. I’ve been saying this for quite a while already.

      Reply
      • 10. Tok Perak  |  June 9, 2015 at 11:26 am

        I truly and totally agree with your Helen.

        Reply
  • 11. AJK Masjid Tanah  |  June 8, 2015 at 11:10 pm

    Dr Mahathir will sabotage PM Najib from winning Selangor re-elction. Winning back Selangor before GE14 will be a tremendous boost to PM Najib’s reputation among the UMNO grassroots as a winner!

    Since Dr M has already predicting a collapse of UMNO/BN votes in GE14 if PM Najib continues, a win in Selangor re-election will counter his boastful forecast.

    So i agree with Helen’s push to swing Selangor back behind PM Najib before GE14 to finish off the grand old man once and for all…

    ~ AJK Masjid Tanah

    Reply
    • 12. Helen Ang  |  June 8, 2015 at 11:16 pm

      Najib’s political survival depends on regaining Selangor.

      Without S’gor under the BN’s belt, the prediction by Tun will come true.

      Tun also said the once Putrajaya is lost, BN won’t be able to get it back. This is also true.

      See how far Pakatan had managed to push ahead within just one election cycle. Red colour is Pakatan. It’s eating up the blue like a voracious Pacman.

      null

      Reply
      • 13. Mujahid  |  June 9, 2015 at 1:12 am

        Helen, to make it even more dramatic, do show the chart of seats after GE11. Back when an overconfident Khir Toyo brandished a broom and vowed to make Selangor Zero Opposition in the next election. That would make for a real eye opener to these sleepy UMNO heads.

        Reply
        • 14. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 7:08 am

          Khir Toyo’s seat was Sungai Panjang.

          In 2008, he won it with 11,181 votes. His PAS opponent had 5,353.

          In 2013, Khir did not contest. Budiman Mohd Zohdi won the seat for Umno with 12,606 votes against PAS’s 10,423.

          From GE12 to GE13, support for PAS (same guy contested in both elections) doubled from 5,353 to 10,423 votes.

          This was a precursor to the trend seen in the recent Rompin by-election. When is Umno going to wake up from their selamba?

          Reply
          • 15. Mujahid  |  June 9, 2015 at 1:03 pm

            Yes. And wasn’t Oppo seats in 2004 less than 5? 4, if I’m not mistaken. Which made Mr Khir vow to make Selangor totally blue. Instead they got whitewashed. Allah doesn’t like boastful people. Look what is happening to Najib now. He boasts about his special blood today and gets humiliated the next day. Umno people are thick when they are not sleepy.

            Reply
  • 16. orangkampung  |  June 8, 2015 at 11:17 pm

    Interesting analysis. Now let’s see if any of the Umno strategists are reading your blog. From what I’ve been reading most of us are pro-BN not because we are members of BN, but mainly because we don’t think the opposition have what it takes to be a better government than the BN.

    While the Dapsters may have their ABU sympathizers, we are definitely not in favour of the opposition particularly DAP. And if the Umno strategist read this sentiment as being pro-BN, they are going to have a nasty shock come election. While we may not want the opposition, we may become disgusted enough with BN to vote a third group (bebas) or avoid the polls totally.

    Having wrote all that I have to say, while Malay unity is not as unattainable as some people believe, finding someone in Umno capable of strategy at this point in time is as elusive as finding a unicorn.

    Reply
    • 17. Helen Ang  |  June 8, 2015 at 11:22 pm

      re: “the opposition particularly DAP”

      The DAP is evangelist. Only Umno remains still so very clueless. Tak tahu nak cakap apa lagi dah.

      Reply
  • 18. Ajay  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:09 am

    Agree with you on the check and balance part. Difference to is too glaring to ignore. En bloc voting is not good for democracy.

    It’s just sad to see one race pitted against the other. I’m inclined to believe that majority of voters that vote for change are of the younger generation – say, 40s and below.

    Reply
    • 19. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:20 am

      re: “It’s just sad to see one race pitted against the other.”

      That’s what ABU is all about. No other word to describe Dapster behaviour except ‘hilang pertimbangan’.

      Reply
  • 20. beastofburden  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:54 am

    Your write up here is super.You have all the stats at your fingertips.

    Its a pity though Umno and whatever that is left BN seem to be clueless apple polishers who are a bunch of idiots led by the biggest IDIOT of them all.

    Their so called war room is akin to a kindergarten room now.

    Hey why worry maybe Lim Kok Wing can win the next election with a song or maybe a new slogan.We all remember the last one “We Love PM”

    Maybe the new slogan should “Thank You PM Checkmate You Are Screwed”

    Reply
  • 21. IT.Scheiss  |  June 9, 2015 at 2:32 am

    A very informative analysis, Helen.

    Ahmad Mustapha Hassan wrote in The Ant Daily on the voting pattern amongst parliamentary constituencies:-

    “The current position of rural and urban voters and number of constituencies can be seen from the following breakdown: 125 rural constituencies (5, 756,489 voters); 54 semi-urban constituencies (3,952,432 voters); 43 urban constituencies (3,559,081 voters)”

    “And BN won 108 out of the 125 rural constituencies and 20 out of 54 in the semi-urban and only five in the urban areas.

    “In the case of Pakatan Rakyat, they won 17 out of 125 in the rural areas, 34 out of 54 in the semi-urban and 38 out of 43 in the urban constituencies.

    “For the urban and semi-urban areas, there were 7,511,513 voters with only 97 constituencies whereas for the rural constituencies of 125, total registered voters were only 5,756,489.”

    http://www.theantdaily.com/Main/Election-system-needs-to-be-changed-for-real-democracy

    Meanwhile Telesur shows how the Conservatives won 52.5% of the seats with 36.8% of the vote in the recent U.K. general elections.

    http://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/UK-Conservatives-Elected-by-Minority-Will-Clash-with-Majority-20150511-0001.html

    Of course yes, such imbalances are possible under the First Past The Post electoral system used in Britain and adopted in Malaysia and such systems are prone to Gerrymandering.

    Clearly, both your and Ahmad Mustapha Hassan’s figures show that Pakatan’s stronghold are the urban constituencies, whilst BN’s stronghold are the rural constituencies and if the ending of cooperation between PAS and DAP is confirmed by the Syura Council, then this will diminish the chances of DAP and PKR winning the majority of seats in Parliament or the Selangor State Assembly, unless they do some serious work to reach into the rural constituencies and win the voters over.

    Also, if PAS leaves Pakatan altogether, there will be many more three cornered fights like in Kota Damansara where Dr. Nasir Hashim could have won the seat instead of UMNO had PAS not contested and that will further dilute the Pakatan’s chances of winning.

    Now I begin to see the mindset of the pro-opposition street protestors and NGOs – i.e. it appears that they believe that with the majority of voters in urban and semi-urban areas, they can successfully pull off a “Malaysian Spring” and bring the government down through mass protests like in Tunisia, Egypt and so forth with the backing of various U.S. and western imperialist front organisations or Soros-financed organisations which have helped bring about those colour revolutions in Eastern Europe employing strategies and tactics of non-violent resistance developed by Dr. Gene Sharp, founder of the Albert Einstein Institution.

    Gene Sharp’s pacifist ideals may seem attractive to radicals but his methods are known to have been used to advance the interests of U.S. and western imperialism.

    In their academic paper on non-violent revolutions, Sean Chabot and Majid Sharifi write:-

    “Our central argument is that the hegemonic story of nonviolent resistance is reinforcing the underlying hegemonic story of neoliberalism. It is hard to dispute that the most popular brand of nonviolence, articulated by Gene Sharp and his followers,
    has helped people overthrow authoritarian regimes across the globe. Yet Sharp’s non-violence also promotes the spread of neoliberal freedom and democracy, which cause multiple forms of visible and invisible violence.”

    https://societieswithoutborders.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/chabotsharififinal2013-9-17.pdf

    This is what Dr. Stuart Jeanne Bramhall writes about Gene Sharp in her article “Why the CIA Funds Non-violent Training” in the Dissident Voice newsletter.

    “Sharp makes no secret of the funding he has received from the Defense Department; the Rand Corporation; CIA-linked foundations, such as NED, the IRI and the US Institute of Peace; and George Soros’s Open Society Institute. All this information is readily available from the AEI website. Sharp himself states, “I have been arguing for years that governments and defense departments – as well as other groups – should finance and conduct research into alternatives to violence in politics and especially as a possible basis for a defense policy by prepared nonviolent resistance as a substitute for war.” (See The living library: some theoretical approaches to a strategy for activating human rights and peace, George Garbutt, 2008, Southern Cross University).”

    “Less well known is the role military and intelligence figures have played in helping Sharp set up and run the AEI. I think most progressives would be extremely disturbed by the major role played by the military-intelligence establishment in funding and running the AEI. I think they would find it even more troubling that progressives who refer to any of this on so called “independent” or “alternative” media websites and blogs have their posts removed.”

    http://dissidentvoice.org/2012/03/why-the-cia-funds-nonviolence-training/

    In his article “Peaceniks for Imperialism” Stephen Gowan writes:-

    “While apparently possessing impeccable leftwing credentials, the Canadian publication, Peace Magazine, is a bulwark of conservatism which virtually operates as a house organ of the Ackerman-Helvey-Sharp destabilization school of US foreign policy.

    “Although it opposes military intervention in the pursuit of US foreign policy goals, it is supportive of liberal-democratic-free-trade capitalist arrangements and the overthrow of governments that operate outside the US axis of domination.

    “It promotes the use of US-sponsored and funded nonviolent resistance (NVR), sometimes called political defiance, or what the CIA calls destabilization, to “take out” governments whose overthrow Washington justifies by demonizing as dictatorial. And it uncritically echoes the pronouncements on official enemies of the White House and US State Department, endorsing from the left US government-provided pretexts for the expansion of US imperialism.”

    https://prolecenter.wordpress.com/2012/02/27/peaceniks-for-imperialism/

    Now doesn’t all that sound and look rather familiar?

    Reply
    • 22. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 7:00 am

      Liberals are a letdown, and self-defeating when it comes to the crunch.

      Reply
      • 23. IT.Scheiss  |  June 9, 2015 at 9:35 am

        Liberals seem to not know how to reach down to the rural folk, so expend their energies protesting outside Sogo, insisting on occupying Dataran Merdeka to make a point about right of free assembly, marching to KLCC, wearing Guy Fawkes masks to mimic Anonymous and so forth, all shenanigans conducted far far away from the voters who matter most and irrelevant to their concerns.

        That’s why I cannot take them seriously.

        Reply
        • 24. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 9:59 am

          re: “That’s why I cannot take them seriously.”

          They’re self-referential, self-important and if only they could be self-destructive (no loss to humanity their departure).

          But most unfortunately, it is the fabric of our society that they destroy.

          Reply
          • 25. IT.Scheiss  |  June 9, 2015 at 11:05 am

            “They’re self-referential, self-important and if only they could be self-destructive (no loss to humanity their departure).”

            They are a rather politically incestuous bunch who adopt strategies, tactics and actions used by political and NGO activists in the west who themselves are pretty alienated from the bulk of people who matter most in their respective countries and apply those strategies, tactics and actions in Malaysia which also have little resonance with the people who matter most.

            Reply
            • 26. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 11:11 am

              re: “politically incestuous bunch”

              So right!

              Take this Malaysiakini article today, ‘Analysts predict BN will lose GE14‘.

              The reporter quoted Ong Kian Ming as one of the “analysts” who spoke about the BN’s impending loss. Well yes Ong is a political analyst. But he’s also a DAP politician as well as his party’s election strategist.

              Pro-opposition online media practise incest of the first order. No wonder their offspring are so malformed.

              Reply
              • 27. Mulan Malaysia  |  June 9, 2015 at 4:28 pm

                “The reporter quoted Ong Kian Ming as one of the “analysts” who spoke about the BN’s impending loss.”

                I don’t think so. Like the Dari Penang Ke Putrajaya and similar slogans.

                Firstly DAP and PKR combined do not have enough candidates to cover every inch of the Malay heartland, Sarawak (outside Kuching and town areas.) With PAS Pakatan can have the reach in the Malay heartland.

                Secondly even with PASMA out on its own, will the Malay populace support them? Can PASMA mass produce candidates to cover every inch of the Malay heartland (i.e. PAS and UMNO areas) and persuade the Malay populace to vote for them. It would actually be easier for PASMA to melt into DAP but then will the Malay populace support the PASMA candidates?

                Thirdly, the binding glue of the 3 Pakatan parties is in jail. Mrs Anwar is not a good binding glue. Remember she was one of the reasons for the PKR/PAS fallout. Even with Anwar running the show from prison, there is no Tok Guru that can rally his supporters for the Pakatan cause.

                I believe there will be drama in Selangor in the days to come. Without PAS, the present Pakatan government is very shaky.
                PKR and DAP hold 29 seats, UMNO and PAS hold 27 seats… and razor thin.

                Reply
                • 28. Political Amalgamation  |  June 9, 2015 at 4:57 pm

                  Wasn’t Anwar’s political glue mostly about sex and libertarianism? Can Mrs. Anwar keep on fanning her partner’s rabid flame?

                  Reply
                  • 29. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 5:16 pm

                    re: “Can Mrs. Anwar keep on fanning her partner’s rabid flame?”

                    I wonder if Hannah Yeoh’s eyes are still welling up with tears each time she thinks about Anwar’s meals in prison.

                    Reply
  • 30. tebing tinggi  |  June 9, 2015 at 8:12 am

    With unity , Malays can grab Selangor back.

    Malays are deeply separated politically ,and the turning back, look impossible ,not even religion can unite them .

    Furthermore they are not raciest in nature , and impossible for them doing the Tsunami ,like the Chinese did .

    Reply
    • 31. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 8:23 am

      re: “Furthermore [Malays] are not racist in nature … like the Chinese”

      ,)

      Yet the J-Star is overly fond of editorializing against those whom the paper calls “hate-spewing, divisive, race-obsessed ignoramuses”.

      Somehow I don’t think that it is the Bak Kut Teh evangelical churchgoers whom Wong Chun Wai & his gang have in mind when they rebuke the “hate spewers”.

      Reply
      • 32. KJ10Q  |  June 9, 2015 at 11:08 am

        Re: not even religion can unite them.

        Actually, it’s the RELIGION that has separated them.

        Its recorded history is not very long, and there aren’t that many books on Malay history and most if not all are folkloric fairy tales.

        We used to be told that Munshi Abdullah was the ‘father of Malay literature ‘ of some sort, and they don’t call him that now perhaps because of his Indian origin.

        Same goes to Syed Sheh Barakhbah, used to be called ‘anak Melayu pertama menjadi Lord President ‘, and it’s quiet now because more and more now feel that Arab is Arab and never is an Arab a Melayu.

        May be it’s true to say that Malays are not as racist as Chinese, but they are very race conscious, that’s a fact.

        Now go back to history. There aren’t that many warfares that were recorded in Malay history. Actually I couldn’t think of any one that was properly recorded. Therefore the most quoted tales on battles are Perang Uhud and Perang Badr, with the latter involved some one thousand plus people on both sides. These are ver small scale skirmishes involving the desert Arabs during the Prophet Muhammad’s time and there aren’t hardly any warfare strategies involved.

        that perhaps explains why UMNO is lost like a headless chicken when faced with psy war from DAP, and all that they can tell themselves is urging everyone to obey the Pemimpin and follow the order of the Pemimpin and to observe their own position, exactly like what they had learned from Perang Badr and Perang Uhud.

        If only warfare could be so simple.

        In a time like this, most do not know how to respond and worse still, some actually think that RELIGION can cure all, like implementing HUDUD will solve all problems and will unite the Malay people. And the forbiddence on questioning HUDUD will naturally forbid any thought on the effects of HUDUD except everything will be so nice and Malaysia will be paradise on earth.

        And then shit will still happen to Malaysia like the ‘earthquack’ in Sabah, and then fingers will be pointed at each other accusing the other of not being religious. And there will be no end to getting more religious because, really, there is no end to the pursuit of being more religious.

        When that happens, this will be another Afghanistan, or Pakistan. It’s actually in the making of such a sorry society if you care to observe.

        Reply
        • 33. Abdullah  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:19 pm

          Sir, the first battle in Islam was fought at Badr during the fasting month of Ramadan in the year 624 AD: between 313 Muslims from Madinah (with 70 camels and few horses) versus the 1000-strong Kufr army from Makkah (with 700 camels and 100 horses)

          It was for Prophet Muhammad s.a.w. and the early Muslims, a “battle for justice and righteousness”. The tactics of their Makkan relatives leading up to the battle show that the Battle of Badr was one of those situations where people are instigated to fight against peaceful Muslims by means of dramatizing them as troublesome aggressors. It also shows that the tactics of the “Kufr” (pagan aggressors) do not change. Whether it is the wicked Pharaoh of Egypt, Abu Jahal of Makkah or a neo-conservative of the 21st century, their mentality and tactics remain the same: They use lies and false propaganda about an imminent danger or retaliation, and resort to pre-emption, to fool their own people into supporting illegitimate and unjust wars of aggression.

          http://www.ayubhamid.com/reflections/seerah/316-what-caused-the-battle-of-badr

          Reply
        • 34. tebing tinggi  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:39 pm

          KJ10Q,

          Re , Arab is an Arab and never is an Arab ,Melayu.

          That’s another problem Malays are facing ,Malays or (claim themselves Malays in official declaration ) are tends to look’s or took’s themselves difference form the others ,base on their origin ,just like Najib declaring himself of being Bugis origin , which his father never did . Now Najib has to say that ,he is Bugis first ,then only Malaysian , so much of 1Malaysia propaganda .

          Hence the ,Jawa ,Banjar ,Boyan ,Arab and Minang too , are acted in the same ways ,which normally flocks among themselves ,normally the Melayus will regard them as Malays, but to the them ,they are of their kinds. All this are” Melayu angkat ” ,which gave greater division to Melayu.

          This also, gave good reason DAP’s evangelist and Chinese extremist to declare that’s all Malays are also pendatang like them, except the Orang Asli ,so to tell that Semenanjung Tanah Melays was only roams by Harimau Malaya then .

          Hoping for united Malays ,are something of the impossible , after Najib declaring himself as Bugis .

          Reply
  • 35. danontheroad  |  June 9, 2015 at 9:14 am

    Ah, Ronnie Liu. Whatever happened to him?

    Reply
  • 36. Rambo  |  June 9, 2015 at 9:50 am

    Very contructive analysis Helen. Winds of change brought by recent PAS muktamar could be a tringgering factor in mooting a more meaningful Malay Unity. Looking at the fact that all Malays all Muslims could be a converging elements to achieve such unity.

    Reply
  • 37. abdul rahman noor  |  June 9, 2015 at 10:06 am

    my humble assessment is that umno/bn will b trounced if a snap election were to be held now. there are too many negative vibes and perception floating around against them.

    please do not underestimate the influence of tun m amongst the ordinary rakyat. one can always try to undermine his legacy but rest be assured it will backfire.

    umno/bn has another 3 years or so to make amends on all fronts ( including making peace with tun m) if ever they plan to survive as a formidable political force.

    Reply
    • 38. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 10:47 am

      Snap election is contingent on Umno unity with PAS but not necessarily having any formal ‘merger’.

      Like I said, both parties will need to first come to an understanding, i.e. Umno will not field candidates in the existing PAS seats, and PAS will not field candidates in the existing Umno seats. Hence the face-off would be:

      – Umno vs PKR

      – PAS vs PKR

      The Malay seats that are presently neither Umno’s nor PAS’s can be divvied up between the two parties. If Umno contests, then the PAS machinery should campaign for Umno on the ground, and vice versa. Work together.

      As for voter dissatisfaction in the rural areas, they may be unhappy with the perception of 1MDB due to the Tun factor but at the same time, they could be unhappy over other issues that are unedifying for Pakatan – like the bullying of the ulama by DAP or the bullying of Khalid Ibrahim by PKR.

      And in this matter of a snap election in Selangor, Tun may consider discretion to be the better part of valour and implicitly agree to a temporary ceasefire. After all, he was careful to remain in the background during the Permatang Pauh and Rompin by-elections.

      The only certainty is that DAP will not lose a single one of its current 15 seats. Everything else is up for grabs.

      Umno’s stature in the Selangor DUN is only 1/5 or 12 seats in the 56-seat assembly. One-fifths is neither here nor there. Even if Umno further loses another 2-3 seats in a re-election, it doesn’t really impact on the direction of Selangor. Worse case scenario: Umno’s strength can possibly be diluted to one-sixth. So what?

      On the other hand, it’s a gamble worth taking if a change of government can be effected.

      Umno-PAS together will have cornered the market on Malay credentials. PKR just can’t swing it as a Malay party against the ‘aura’ (urm, can you think of a better word?) of a combined PAS-Umno.

      Ketum is in jail for sodomy, Wan Azizah the parachute Kajang Adun was unacceptable to the Sultan as MB, and Azmin lacks gravitas. In a Melayu totok milieu, PKR is tainted through its continued association with the DAP which has far too many young evangelista Aduns and church connections.

      As for the icing on the cake, the ‘unity’ side has already got an experienced Menteri Besar-in-waiting Khalid Ibrahim who is in the good graces of the palace.

      If PKR and DAP fail to form a simple majority, the other side (Umno and PAS) can cobble together an ad hoc arrangement such as for the hudud vote in Kelantan.

      Ingat tak ‘Linangan air mata iringi ikrar Umno sokong hudud’ (video) – “Kami sokong kerana Allah”.

      Reply
      • 39. abdul rahman noor  |  June 9, 2015 at 11:28 am

        I agree that cooperation rather than formal association will exist between umno and pas. but it is only possible if umno retains all the seats in the last election.

        in Selangor ,if a snap election were to be held soon ,I still believe umno/bn will be decimated. the biggest gainers will b pkr and pas. umno through ahmad maslan has said so indirectly when he commented that a snap election should be the last resort in Selangor.

        umno ,pas and some elements within pkr should should strategize to oust the present Selangor Govt by engineering a vote of no confidence in the dewan and reinstall t s khalid as the mb.

        even though tun m loves umno dearly, he will never forgive the humiliation he experienced at pwtc recently and the present umno leadership will definitely suffer the consequences. tun m need not do anything but his army of supporters will do all the work for him.

        its a question of not loving umno less but loving the statesman more.

        Reply
        • 40. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 11:59 am

          re: “I still believe umno/bn will be decimated.”

          There is no BN in Selangor DUN. There’s only Umno. MCA Selangor is dead in the water and worse off than MCA Perak which at least has one Adun.

          Hence the calculus is whether Umno can improve on its 12 seats or alternatively lose a couple more, and whether Umno will continue sitting on the opposition bench or possibly form a new state government.

          re: “the biggest gainers will b pkr and pas”

          I do not see PKR as being strong. Its Chinese-Indian components cannot match the DAP’s popularity while its Malay component is iffy. They couldn’t even manage to muster a small crowd to attend Anwar’s verdict.

          I see PAS as growing stronger after its purge of the Anwarinas. Now PAS will have clarity of purpose. A strong PAS is a stiffer challenge for Umno, as the Islamist party has traditionally been. If Umno does not co-opt PAS, then Umno will have to confront PAS in GE14.

          When Umno loses seats, it does not lose those seats to the DAP. Their constituencies rarely overlap. Umno will lose its seats to PAS. So why not make nice to PAS now? The only way to wrest back Selangor is through Malay unity. Perak is the template.

          re: “umno through ahmad maslan has said so indirectly when he commented that a snap election should be the last resort in Selangor.”

          The chap is not the sharpest tool in the shed, is he?

          re: “umno ,pas and some elements within pkr should should strategize to oust the present Selangor Govt by engineering a vote of no confidence in the dewan and reinstall t s khalid as the mb.”

          DAP is sitting in the Speaker’s chair. So approving motions for debate is Hannah’s prerogative. Remember how the DUN security officials had to cart away the DAP Perak Speaker while the fella was still stuck to his chair?

          Should the situation be reprised in Selangor, it’ll need burlier men to carry away the Speaker’s chair with the perpetually heartached and tears-welling overweight Madame sitting fast in it.

          re: “even though tun m loves umno dearly, he will never forgive the humiliation he experienced at pwtc recently”

          Actually, Tun came off very well from the incident. You gotta admire his chutzpah.

          re: “and the present umno leadership will definitely suffer the consequences.”

          Tun Razak’s era was the Golden Age of Umno leadership. We need their good, benign saka.

          re: “his army of supporters will do all the work for him. its a question of not loving umno less but loving the statesman more.”

          Big sigh. Sad when cool heads are unable to prevail. Can’t they think of the big picture and take the long view?

          For me, I always look at the end game. DAP Bintang Lima must not be allowed to come to power. But this Tun vs Najib-Najib vs Tun asymmetrical warfare is a mutually assured destruction which both are inadvertently inflicting on the party they love.

          Reply
          • 41. abdul rahman noor  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:44 pm

            I totally agree with you on the racist dap bintang 5. they should not be allowed to taste federal power. I conveyed my ideas to pm najib through his lawyer on how to get the Chinese to support mca and gerakan again.the person pm najib directed to see me had different ideas. so we parted ways. I was directed by dtn sri rosmah to see her confidant recently. amongst other things I brought up this issue again. I m still waiting for the response.

            I knew of tun m’s unhappiness towards pm najib’s administration since early 2013 when I had a chance to meet him. on my own initiative I have tried to arrange a meaningful ‘father and son reconciliation’ dialogue but I failed.

            as I told u before in this blog, I plan to pen down all my efforts which I hope will be known to my kids and my generation to come on how I tried to help avoid the malay political predicament and uncertainty that the country is facing now.

            I still strongly believe that the power sharing concept that the umno/bn is adopting now is the only workable arrangement in a multi racial; multi religious and multi cultural Malaysia.

            Reply
            • 42. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 1:10 pm

              re: “how to get the Chinese to support mca and gerakan again”

              I wonder too.

              MCA has been about compromise. DAP is all about confrontation and hypocrisy.

              Look at Guan Eng’s hypocrisy (break off ties with Hadi Awang but still wanna keep pact with PAS), and his arrogance before and after the PAS election.

              null

              Reply
            • 43. shamshul anuar  |  June 9, 2015 at 10:52 pm

              Helen,

              You are right. No need to talk about BN in Selangor. MCA and Gerakan together with MIC are already wiped out in Selangor.

              UMNO stronghold in Selangor are actually the malay majority areas. and as most Malay constituents are in rural areas, people assume that UMNO only has support in rural areas.

              Actually it does have the lion share of malay votes EVEN in urban or semi urban areas. as an example, UMNO managed to get the lion share among malay voters in Ampang. But as Ampang is with substantial 45% non malay voters, UMNO lost the seat.

              Housing development plays a part too. Drive through Hulu kelang and you can see new township with English names and prizes that not many malays can purchase. So in 10 years, Hulu kelang will become a non malay majority area. The same pattern can be seen in Bangi, Semenyih and even Shah Alam.

              BUT in believe PRU14 will be quite different. I believe the party that will suffer the most is PKR. I believe substantial malay voters already gives up on PKR.

              As for TUN, i believe he can only push Najib to a certain limit. Due to relentless Tun’s attack on 1MDb, najib administration begins to start explaining and explains seriously on 1mdb.

              Reply
  • 44. zackdaril  |  June 9, 2015 at 10:07 am

    Kelassnya hrlrn ang..patut jadi ketua penerangan politik.

    Reply
  • 45. HH  |  June 9, 2015 at 11:34 am

    Umno – Sungai Ayer Tawar – 7,096 votes – one seat
    DAP – Damansara Utama – 37,303 votes – also one seat

    The last re-delination was in 2003. The redrawing of election boundaries for state and parliament is supposed to be carried out very 8 years to better reflect the the spirit of equality.

    From the example above, it is a logical conclusion the voice of an individual living in Damansara Utama is much less of one staying in, say, Sungai Ayer Tawar.

    Party and their partisans reaping from the current delineation advantage are quite prepared to let the status quo remain.

    I’m not surprised.

    I don’t take sides, but it is easy to see ABD (D for DAP) is no different from the ABU.

    In spite of all the talk about Chinese and Christian support et al for the opposition, I have never doubted UMNO would be at a disadvantage. Not with the current EC. That is why BERSIH is clamoring for an impartial EC and it is the single most important component in the opposition’s Putrajaya aspiration.

    As for UMNO, the thing that could break them is their internal strife and their fraction sabotaging one another.

    Without any EC reform, I don’t foresee any surprises ahead.

    Reply
    • 46. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:28 pm

      7,096 in Sungai Ayer Tawar refers to the votes obtained by Umno and 37,303 in Damansara Utama refers to the votes obtained by DAP. The figures do not refer to the size of the two constituencies.

      Sungai Ayer Tawar has a total 15,187 registered voters while Damansara Utama has 53,394 registered voters.

      Umno’s Kamarol Zaki received 46.7% support of the total electorate while Yeo Bee Yin received 69.8% support from her electorate.

      Like I said, Umno and PAS give each other a good fight and in many seats, victory could go either win. The winning majority for Umno or PAS is not insurmountable. The loyalty of the Malay voter is in many cases 50-50.

      MCA and Gerakan, on the other hand, are unable to put up a decent fight against the DAP when the loyalty of the Chinese voter is 10:90.

      MCA contested 14 seats in Selangor and lost all 14. MCA contested 10 seats in Negeri Sembilan and lost all 10. MCA contested 15 seats in Perak and won only one – in an area with large Orang Asli settlements, hahaha. Kononnya parti suara kaum Tionghua.

      Reply
  • 47. anonymous  |  June 9, 2015 at 11:53 am

    There will be no unity.
    PAS is ABU forever just like DAP.
    DAP will continue to enjoy treating PAS as useless dumb inferiors because PAS only need to exist and divide the Malay votes and nothing else. PAS is just a Malay party who thinks they are Islamic and UMNO is not Islamic. They don’t care if UMNO supports hudud or not, just like they don’t care if DAP or PKR supports hudud or not.

    Reply
    • 48. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:08 pm

      re: “PAS is ABU forever”

      I disagree.

      When everybody was attacking Najib, TG Hadi Awang stepped forward to defend him, and said there is no call for the PM to cave in to the demands for his resignation.

      TG Nik Aziz is the one with the chip on the shoulder, and the ‘party whip’ keeping everyone in line wrt viewing Umno as public enemy No.1

      It will be interesting to watch Nik Abduh and the direction he takes on relations with Umno. He’s more anti-DAP than he is anti-Umno.

      I believe there’s been a movement of the tectonic plates. Umno Kelantan – both among their Aduns and MPs – have supported hudud demi Allah. BiaDAP is the clear and present danger that is anti-hudud and anti-Islam. Umno is not anti-Islam.

      Why should PAS be ABU if by doing this, it indirectly (as an unintended consequence) empowers the DAP which will in turn empower the evangelistas who are a clear-cut religious rival to the ustaz-ustazah?

      Reply
      • 49. anonymous  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:42 pm

        Oh, I’m sure Pakatan would love very much having Najib stay as PM and UMNO leader until the next election.

        PAS have always been ABU. Hudud is just typically how they would love to show they are Islamic and UMNO is not. We would see how UMNO really accepts hudud if the hudud bill ever reach parliament, instead at Kelantan state level.

        ABU made the Pakatan leaders and followers mad and blind. Their leaders will do everything they can to overthrow UMNO and their followers will be blind to whatever wrongs their Pakatan leaders do. If things go wrong, even better, because that’s when they will blame everything on UMNO and justify their ABU in the first place.

        As for the evangelistas, I believe that you are the one most responsible(not to mention most persistent) to create awareness of them. I expect the things you bring to attention are repeated in pro BN social media, not read and accepted by pro PAS people. I don’t know what PAS thinks of ISMA.

        Not to mention DAP is cunning enough to try and win PAS followers, and to support PAS politicians who are pro DAP. The hudud thing throws this into disarray though. PAS also probably don’t view them as religious rivals, because they couldn’t care less what religion the non Malays chose to embrace and practice and focus on Malays support. It’s a Malay party.
        Are there even any Indian or Chinese Muslims in PAS top leadership?

        Reply
        • 50. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 3:44 pm

          re: “Oh, I’m sure Pakatan would love very much having Najib stay as PM and UMNO leader until the next election.”

          :) something to triple think about.

          Scenario-building:

          (A) If TS Muhyiddin were to lead BN, do you think they’ll be able to win GE14? How will Sabah and Sarawak react to him?

          Adenan Satem recently spoke glowingly of Najib, see https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/300645

          and Joseph Pairin Kitingan said Najib has done more for Sabah than any other PM, see,
          http://www.pressreader.com/malaysia/the-borneo-post-sabah/20150513/281496454857192/TextView

          (B) If Zahid Hamidi were to lead BN, do you think they’ll be able to win GE14?

          (C) If Hisham (with KJ in tow) were to lead BN, do you think they’ll be able to win GE14?

          (D) If Shafie Apdal were to lead BN, do you think they’ll be able to win GE14?

          Reply
  • 51. HH  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:01 pm

    Correction: should read

    I have doubted UMNO would be at a disadvantage….

    Reply
  • 52. RINA  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:04 pm

    The figures benar2 mempersonakan. Mai dari mana pengundi2 yg begitu ramai? Hijrah dari kampung2 atau jatuh dari langit atau ‘ala’ 40K Bangla voters? Masih ada 3tahun lagi, mohon semak rapi kesahikan voters ini semua..

    Owh ya.. All over we can see all sorts of properties coming up. Kita tau these areas harga properties mayak mahal and majority, Apek2 tinggal dikawasan ini, macam mana depa mampu beli?

    Sementara Adun/MP kalut kempen to lure voters, puak Income tax pun perlu kerja keras ya? Pelik kalau jumlah pembayar cukai persaorangan sekadar plus minus satu juta orang saja?

    Reply
  • 53. sirimuda  |  June 9, 2015 at 12:58 pm

    Re : Yet The J’Star is overly fond of editorial icing against those whom the paper calls “hate spewing, divisive, race-obsessed ignoramuses”
    They simplified to their readers meaning Malays PAS (ulama’s) snub the Christians strip them off their niche and najib their father of moderate wholeheartedly bowed and trying to winch them over in spite the fate of the umno president himself are unknown.

    Reply
  • 54. Owl  |  June 9, 2015 at 2:43 pm

    UMNO and BN, through the Electoral Commission have shown that they don’t care about urban voters through malapportioning electorates. It is hard for MPs to represent the interests of people when they don’t know their concerns. So even if BN took back Selangor, using rural malapportionment as you suggest, what can they offer the bulk of the people there. What message does it send to the millions of urban Malays, when they know they don’t count unless they are in a kampong. Undoubtedly, through the weight of birth rates, the proportion of urban Malays will continue to grow, but the clear future is not unity, but more likely a clear division between “progressive/nationalistic” rural Malays, religiously-conservative Malays and urban Malays – each with a party to support. HA, do you really believe that PAS will be less appealing to rural Malays after its battles with DAP? For myself, I think PAS will capture many more rural seats. UMNO may pick up some urban seats but the risks are greater than the rewards. If UMNO had a clear plan for the urban voters, it still won’t matter as these seats are never going to secure the Federal Government.

    Reply
    • 55. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 3:34 pm

      re: “UMNO and BN, through the Electoral Commission have shown that they don’t care about urban voters through malapportioning electorates.”

      The EC chairman has said that he is neutral.

      re: “It is hard for MPs to represent the interests of people when they don’t know their concerns.”

      You mean like Dyana Sofea who parachuted into Teluk Intan? Well that didn’t deter the 19,919 DAP diehards who voted for her.

      re: “So even if BN took back Selangor, using rural malapportionment as you suggest, what can they offer the bulk of the people there.”

      If BN can give us clean and uninterrupted water supply, I should be happy.

      re: “What message does it send to the millions of urban Malays, when they know they don’t count unless they are in a kampong.”

      Have you asked millions of urban Malays whether they’ve been messaged that they don’t count unless they are in a kampung?

      re: “Undoubtedly, through the weight of birth rates, the proportion of urban Malays will continue to grow, but the clear future is not unity, but more likely a clear division between “progressive/nationalistic” rural Malays, religiously-conservative Malays and urban Malays – each with a party to support.”

      So you’re saying here that kampung Malays are un-“progressive”, i.e. backward and that urban Malays are religiously liberal?

      re: “HA, do you really believe that PAS will be less appealing to rural Malays after its battles with DAP? For myself, I think PAS will capture many more rural seats.”

      You’re not a careful reader. I’ve said several times already that I believe PAS will be stronger following the recent muktamar and changing of the guard.

      re: “UMNO may pick up some urban seats but the risks are greater than the rewards.”

      I don’t see how. It has 12 seats. How many of these dozen seats do you think Umno stands to lose?

      re: “If UMNO had a clear plan for the urban voters, it still won’t matter as these seats are never going to secure the Federal Government.”

      But what is the Pakatan plan for urban voters? Why don’t you tell us first.

      You are aware that it is Pakatan which thoroughly controls the urban seats? See, https://helenang.wordpress.com/2014/10/29/pakatan-menguasai-88-peratus-kerusi-bandar/

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      Reply
  • 56. Mulan Malaysia  |  June 9, 2015 at 4:07 pm

    So many things have happened since my last comment. Certainly my Penang has changed.

    Here is a follow up from Ist’s comment.

    It is just only a few days of the SEA games and Singaporeans have shown a very unfriendly side to what is called goodwill games. First the “joke” on an Indian member of the audience.

    Now the Singapore pressmen jeering our Netball team –asking us to “hoi balik kampong la”.

    So this is SG50. Hmmm.

    Reply
  • 57. The Rithmatist  |  June 9, 2015 at 4:09 pm

    It is the silly season in Malaysian politics. As has been the case most of the time.

    While the rest of the world moves on to better things.

    Like, for example, a San Francisco startup Bolt Threads successfully producing laboratory-grown silk with the same unique chemical properties of spider silk.

    Or Amazon.com and Google in a race to store data on human DNA in the cloud.

    But that is ok. There is nothing much on offer in the Malaysian science and technology sector and the country’s startup scene is noticeable for producing nothing noteworthy, revolutionary or groundbreaking.

    Or the news on the political front that Turkey faces turmoil after Erdogan’s shock setback, when his ruling Justice and Development Party was dealt a crushing rebuff by voters and failed to secure a simple majority in Sunday’s general election.

    What is noteworthy in the Turkey election is that the secular opposition Republican People’s Party is set to be the second-largest in the Turkish Parliament with around 25 per cent of the vote.

    The minority Turkish Kurds (a substantial and historically restless ethnic minority) made spectacular gains when their People’s Democratic Party secured 13 per cent of the votes and is guaranteed to have at least 75 seats in Parliament.

    Mr Erdogan’s party’s Islamist credentials were rebuffed by voters who supported the secular opposition party or the Kurdish party and succeeded only in retaining the loyalty of voters in Turkey’s conservative rural heartlands.

    What it means for President Erdogan’s is that even if his party succeeds in forming a coalition government, he faces a deeply divided Turkish state, with its western and most developed provinces facing the European continent and the Mediterranean Sea firmly in the hands of the secular opposition party and all the eastern provinces bordering Iran now controlled by the Kurdish party.

    It appears that Turkish voters took a long hard look at Erdogan’s increasingly Islamist policies and rebuffed them.

    The Islamists in Malaysia should be drawing lessons from this – that a “secular opposition” and “restless ethnic minorities” could deal them a crushing rebuff in the next general election.

    After all, the Turks managed to do it in spite of Erdogan’s command of the bully pulpit!

    Reply
    • 58. Helen Ang  |  June 9, 2015 at 4:25 pm

      If Erdogan succeeds in forming the government, then the dialing back of Ataturk’s secularism will continue.

      Reply
    • 60. RINA  |  June 9, 2015 at 6:30 pm

      …..While the rest of the world moves on to better things…

      Rithmatist, hang jangan pandang rendah sangat dengan keupayaan Malaysia atau contributions oghang2 Melayu Islam dlm bidang2 lain spt oil and gas, kelapa sawit and whatnot!

       Wiki….PETRONAS is ranked amongFortune Global 500’s largest corporations in the world. Fortuneranks PETRONAS as the 75th largest company in the world in 2013. It also ranks PETRONAS as the 12th most profitable company in the world and the most profitable in Asia…

      On oil palm hang baca sendirilah. ….Felda largest in the world tau. FGV has built the world’s largest and most advanced bulking facilities for vegetable oil terminal in Malaysia handling up to 40% of Malaysia’s total palm oil exports….

      Reply
      • 61. shamshul anuar  |  June 9, 2015 at 11:09 pm

        RINA,

        One glaring weakness of Malay community is tendency to take things for granted. Or in Malay it is called “ambil mudah”

        UMNO simply does not react. Hannah Yeoh churns out garbage insulting and slandering UMNO every day and yet I have yet to see UMNO Ministers rebuke her for the world to see.

        I never see UMNO initiates proceeding after Guan Eng said any Chinese who allies with UMNO is not a Chinese. And when PKR and DAP proudly rejected PRU13 outcome and organised Balckout that threatened Federal Govrrnment, UMNO did not react. In other part of planet, such a move is enough to make the Supremo punishes the intransigent state leader.

        Reply

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