Umno has nothing to lose and everything to gain if a state reelection were to be held in Selangor.
PAS ceasing co-operation with DAP will rock the political equation. Once PAS Malays stop aligning themselves with Pakatan, the DAP will naturally succumb to the Malay in-built advantage of rural weightage.
I’ll show you how a quarter (24.0%) of the Pakatan “popular vote” in Selangor actually came only from the DAP’s Top 10 state seats alone.
My purpose is to tell you that ‘size’, i.e. Pakatan’s much touted “popular vote” muscle, does not matter. It’s just depends on how you look at it and what you wanna do about it. Now please pay close attention to the data.
There are 56 state seats in Selangor. The most densely populated ones are held by DAP. The most sparsely populated ones are held by Umno.
The top 10 DUNs in Selangor where the candidate obtained the biggest majority relative to the voter turnout are:
Constituency – Winning Candidate – Party
1. Damansara Utama – Yeo Bee Yin – DAP
2. Seri Kembangan – Ean Yong Hian Wah – DAP
3. Bukit Gasing – Rajiv Rishyakaran – DAP
4. Kota Alam Shah – V. Ganabatirau – DAP
5. Subang Jaya – Hannah Yeoh – DAP
6. Kampung Tunku – Lau Weng San – DAP
7. Bukit Lanjan – Elizabeth Wong – PRK
8. Kinrara – Ng Sze Han – DAP
9. Pandamaran – Tan Pok Shyong – DAP
10. Teratai – Tiew Way Kheng – DAP
Salient features of the Top 10 list above:
- Nine out of the ten biggest majorities in Selangor were attained by DAP
- All of the winning candidates are either Chinese or Indian; there is not a single Malay among them
- The evangelical Christian factor is clearly visible
Let’s examine the Top 10 in a little more detail.
All these areas registered high voter turnout of 80 percent and above.
DAP’s Yeo Bee Yin obtained a whopping majority of 30,689 votes – the biggest in Selangor. Her area Damansara Utama has 83.4 percent Chinese voters.
Constituency – Majority – Percentage of Chinese Voters in the Electorate
1. Damansara Utama – 30,689 – 83.4%
2. Seri Kembangan – 22,078 – 83.5%
3. Bukit Gasing – 15,842 – 69.2%
4. Kota Alam Shah – 13,369 – 56.9%
5. Subang Jaya – 28,069 – 56.8%
6. Kampung Tunku – 13,685 – 66.8%
7. Bukit Lanjan – 17,200 – 56.7%
8. Kinrara – 14,604 – 59.2%
9. Pandamaran – 9,176 – 59.0%
10. Teratai – 13,646 – 58.6%
Salient features of the Top 10 list above:
- All ten constituencies above have an absolute Chinese majority of above 50 percent, including the one won by PKR’s Elizabeth Wong
- With the exception of Pandamaran (Ronnie Liu’s former seat), all the DAP candidates plus Eli Wong had gotten majorities in the five digits
Yeo Bee Yin in fact managed to double the majority obtained by her DAP predecessor; her GE13 majority was 30,689 compared to Dr Cheah Wing Yin’s 15,355 in GE12.
As a matter of side interest, Kota Alam Shah was contested by one of the “Hindraf Five” lawyers who had been detained under ISA. Ganabatirau however stood and won under the DAP banner. Kota Alam Shah has 25.5 percent Indian voters.
Analysis of the DAP’s Top 10
At No.11 among the Aduns who snagged the biggest margin of victory in Selangor the last election is yet another DAP Yang Berhormat, Ng Tien Chee. Ng won the state seat of Balakong by a majority of 13,542. Balakong has 55.4 percent Chinese voters.
Let’s do the math again for the Top 11, minus PKR’s Elizabeth Wong at No.7.
So how big are the seats in Selangor that were won with the biggest majority? Excluding PKR’s Bukit Lanjan, the remaining Top 10 DUNs (nine seats plus the one at No. 11) are all DAP’s.
Subang Jaya is the biggest – truly gargantuan!
Damansara Utama, for example, has a total of 53,394 registered voters. DAP’s Yeo Bee Yin obtained 37,303 votes which is 69.9 percent of the electorate.
Constituency – Total No. of Reg. Voters – No. of Votes Obtained by DAP – Percentage
- Damansara Utama – 53,394 – 37,303 – 69.9%
- Seri Kembangan – 37,042 – 27,406 – 74.0%
- Bukit Gasing – 34,584 – 21,168 – 61.2%
- Kota Alam Shah – 29,507 – 18,971 – 64.3%
- Subang Jaya – 61,688 – 40,366 – 65.4%
- Kampung Tunku – 32,007 – 19,762 – 61.7%
- Kinrara – 34,241 – 22,333 – 65.2%
- Pandamaran – 27,594 – 16,311 – 59.1%
- Teratai – 40,862 – 23,578 – 58.7%
- Balakong – 42,829 – 25,126 – 58.7%
Salient features of the ten DAP seats listed above:
- They are all densely populated and having between 30,000 and 60,000 voters on average
- The level of support for DAP is high, ranging from almost 60% to 75% (calculated on the number of votes obtained by DAP over the total number of registered voters)
Chinese voters packed like sardines
The DAP seats above are all urban or semi-urban. DAP collected more than a quarter million votes (252,324 votes) in just those 10 seats mentioned.
DAP’s three most popular Aduns – Hannah Yeoh, Yeo Bee Yin & Ean Yong – between them already tallied (40,366 + 37,303 + 27,406 =) 105,075 votes. Meaning these three evangelistas alone command the support of more than 100k voters.
Top 10 seats won with the smallest majorities relative to voter turnout
They are all Umno seats and have an absolute Malay majority. All were won against PAS or PKR opponents.
Kota Damansara, for example, has a total of 44,948 registered voters. Umno’s Halimaton Saadiah Bohan won the seat with 16,387 votes and a winning majority of 1,527.
Constituency – Total No. of Reg. Voters – No. of Votes Obtained by Umno – Majority
1. Kota Damansara – 44,948 – 16,387 – 1,527
2. Bukit Melawati – 16,118 – 7,296 – 806
3. Kuang – 24,319 – 11,027 – 1,255
4. Permatang – 19,636 – 9,049 – 1,026
5. Dengkil – 38,400 – 17,801 – 2,317
6. Sungai Panjang – 26,590 – 12,606 – 2,183
7. Sungai Ayer Tawar – 15,187 – 7,096 – 1,416
8. Semenyih – 42,344 – 17,616 – 4,145
9. Jeram – 27,541 – 13,632 – 2,834
10. Batang Kali – 43,578 – 21,189 – 5,398
The Umno results and the DAP results are like chalk and cheese. Shall we compare and contrast?
Altogether, the 10 Umno Aduns, who had won with the smallest majority margin, managed to garner a total of 133,699 votes between them.
Contrast with the top 10 DAP Aduns who had won with the biggest margin in majority. Combined they collected more than a quarter million votes or 252,324.
Or to look at it another way, the DAP Top 3 comprising Hannah and her two evangelista colleagues had 105,075 votes. Ten of Umno’s 12 Aduns had 133,699 votes collectively.
Malay votes split, Umno and PAS evenly matched
Take Kota Damansara won by Umno which has a 56.1 percent Malay majority. The score sheet:
- Halimaton Saadiah Bohan (Umno) – 16,387
- Mohd Nasir Hashim (PKR-PSM) – 14,860
- Ridzuan Ismail (PAS) – 7,312
The votes in Kota Damansara were split three ways. Halimaton’s winning majority was only 1,527.
We’ll compare with a seat won DAP in a Chinese area with a similar percentage in ethnic majority. Subang Jaya with its 56.8 percent Chinese majority voters is closest percentage-wise to Kota Damansara’s 56.1 percent Malay majority.
The Subang Jaya score sheet:
- Hannah Yeoh (DAP) – 40,366
- Gan Meng Foo (MCA) – 12,297
Contrast Hannah’s majority of 28,069 to Halimaton’s 1,527. The difference, aside from the vast distance in quantity, is that Hannah had the Chinese and Christian votes solidly behind her.
Whereas in Kota Damansara’s three-cornered affair between Halimaton, Dr Nasir and Ridzuan, the consolidation, either behind race or religion, was not easily apparent.
Let’s take a look at another seat; one that was lost narrowly by Umno to PAS, i.e. Sabak which has 80.3 percent Malay voters.
The Sabak score sheet:
- Sallehen Mukhyi (PAS) – 9,421
- Abdul Halim Udin (Umno) – 9,022
So close! Sallehen’s majority was 399 but the number of spoilt votes was already 299.
What we can take away from the data
Umno’s 10 narrowly won seats were supported by pro-establishment voters only half in number to DAP’s 10 seats won on huge majorities.
Umno’s best majority was 5,398 in Batang Kali. DAP’s best majority was 30,689 in Damansara Utama.
Umno’s majority mostly hovered between 1,000 and 3,000. The rest of DAP’s super majority (apart from the two stratospheric evangelista hubs of Subang Jaya and Damansara Utama) averaged between 10,000 and 15,000.
Pakatan keeps boasting that it won the “popular vote” and at the same time taunts BN for its “minority government” (a charge that is false).
In reality, Pakatan only won the “popular vote” due to the extreme ABU behaviour of the Chinese. We can see this from the Selangor data sets.
The huge wins by DAP in the Chinese-majority areas indicate how tremendously lopsided the Chinese voting pattern is. The narrow wins by Umno and PAS who were both evenly matched showed that there was check and balance in the way that the Malays voted.
Such one-sidedness in the Chinese political behaviour can be ascertained from the trend nationwide. The larger the Chinese population in the state, the more rabidly pro-Pakatan the state is.
GE13 results in 2013
Penang has the highest percentage of Chinese voters in Malaysia at 53.4 percent. Pakatan receives the strongest support throughout the country in Penang.
- Pakatan – 67.5 percent of the GE13 popular vote
- BN – 32.1 percent
Kuala Lumpur has the second highest percentage of Chinese voters in Malaysia at 52.2 percent. KL displays the second strongest support for Pakatan in the country.
- Pakatan – 64.7 percent of the GE13 popular vote
- BN – 34.6 percent
Roughly one-third (34.0%) of the electorate in Selangor are Chinese and this number is less than in Penang and KL. Selangor has got slightly weaker support for Pakatan compared to Pakatan-crazy Penang and KL.
- Pakatan – 59.6 percent of the GE13 popular vote
- BN – 39.4 percent
Penang and Selangor are Pakatan-ruled states while the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur is dominated by Pakatan. KL has 11 parliament seats; Pakatan holds nine (DAP-5, PKR-4) of them while BN has two (Umno-2).
The other Pakatan state is Kelantan where the Chinese make up a mere 3.73 percent of the voters. Although all three – Penang, Selangor and Kelantan – are under Pakatan rule, it is Kelantan that is less prominently Pakatan if we were to go by the popular vote percentages.
- Pakatan – 55.3 percent of the GE13 popular vote
- BN – 44.6 percent
The GE13 data reveal how the Chinese are the most determinedly politicized voters. The impact of this Chinese acute bias in the three states is clear from the correlation between the percentage of Chinese voters and the strength of support shown Pakatan.
SELANGOR REPORT CARD
– DAP contested 15 state seats and won all 15.
– PAS contested 21 and won 15.
– PKR contested 21 and won 14 (on 5 May 2013), including Khalid Ibrahim’s Port Klang.
– Umno contested 35 and won 12.
– MCA contested 14 and won zero.
The numbers that matter
– Umno obtained a total of 514,143 votes and 29.2 percent of the ballots cast.
– DAP obtained a total of 311,416 votes and 17.7 percent of the ballots cast.
– PAS obtained a total of 366,546 votes and 20.8 percent of the ballots cast.
– PKR obtained a total of 373,009 votes and 17.7 percent of the ballots cast.
*** The three Pakatan parties received 1,050,971 votes combined which is equal to 59.6 percent of the Selangor popular vote.
However, a quarter (24.0%) of the Pakatan popular vote in Selangor came from the DAP’s Top 10 state seats alone.
The conclusion we can draw from the data is that Pakatan’s impressive popular vote in Selangor is due solely to the DAP’s massive wins in the urban areas.
Nonetheless, despite the DAP’s superlative performance of obtaining more than a quarter million votes in just 10 constituencies, its gigantic size in voter support does not really matter. Rural Umno can get the same number of seats with only half the head count.
• Umno – Sungai Ayer Tawar – 7,096 votes – one seat
• DAP – Damansara Utama – 37,303 votes – also one seat
More importantly, the climate today is different from that in May 2013.
Today PAS views the DAP as a Christian party that – to quote PAS Dewan Ulama deputy chairman Dr Nik Mohd Zawawi Salleh – “melakukan penentangan terhadap usaha [PAS] mempertahankan kesucian Islam dan melaksanakan hukum hudud”.
Dr Zawawi also observed that “masyarakat Cina yang dahulunya penganut Buddha menukar agama mereka kepada Kristian” and “perubahan tersebut mula menyaksikan pertembungan antara PAS dan parti bukan Islam yang rata-ratanya Kristian dan diketahui seteru kepada umat Islam dari zaman berzaman”.
Today many Muslim NGOs are up in arms against the DAP whom they view as “pelampau Kristian”.
ABOVE: Hannah’s “I want change” tweet shortly after the DAP’s stunning success in the Sarawak 2011 state election
The clean sweep made by the ulama faction in the just concluded PAS election is a harbinger of “change” – to borrow the Dapster’s favourite word.
This wind of change is quite capable of blowing a breath of fresh air into the Selangor state administration that reeks of pungent DAP evangelism.
It doesn’t matter that the DAP wins Subang Jaya and Damansara Utama so big as to send their popular vote rocketing sky high. Ultimately it is the party with the most number of seats that will form the government, even if those seats were won through a tiny majority of say, Sweet Sixteen votes.
Umno is currently only occupying one-fifths of the Selangor DUN. The Malay party cannot do any worse than its present standing. On the other hand, Umno might do better to ride on the ‘changed’ Malay sentiment if it can come to some sort of accommodation with PAS.
Umno also has the opportunity to recover for the BN those Malay-majority seats captured by the DAP in GE13.
Sungai Pelek, which was lost by the MCA, has 59.1% Malay, 22.1% Chinese and 15.9% Indian voters while Kuala Kubu Baru which is also in DAP hands has 53 percent non-Chinese voters (32.9% Malay, 20.9% Indian & 3.4% Lain-lain).
There is quite a fair chance for the BN to win back Selangor. It just depends on how capable Umno is of strategizing the smart moves.