DAP can sapu how many PAS Selangor DUN seats next election?
Raja Petra believes that with Malay votes split three ways, “Selangor is going to be practically served to DAP on a silver platter”. He also believes that by the next election, DAP will “own Selangor” and a DAP Malay will become the state Menteri Besar.
My article will be in four sections.
(A) Raja Petra’s column reproduced in full with his permission
(B) Summary of Raja Petra’s main points
(C) Prediction of PAS’s chances in Selangor by Kit Siang
(D) Demographic analysis of PAS seats in Selangor by Helen
DAP can now own Selangor
By Raja Petra Kamarudin
(The Corridors of Power, ‘Malaysia Today’, 14 Aug 2015)
With Pakatan Rakyat dead, PAS split into two, Umno facing a serious internal conflict, and PKR neither here nor there, DAP can now make its move to add Selangor as the second state after Penang that it owns.
As what the DAP supporters have reminded us again and again over the last couple of years, DAP has managed to garner 85% to 90% of the Chinese support nationwide with MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP gasping for their lives. Another thing to note is that DAP seems to win every seat it contests and this impressive track record is not expected to change come the next general election.
Selangor has 56 state seats, half of which can be considered Chinese-majority seats. Hence DAP has the potential to win at least 28 of those seats. Therefore, if DAP were to contest 25 state seats in Selangor it can most likely win all of them.
The balance 31 seats can be given to PKR and GHB to share. Being new and yet untested, GHB can be given 11 seats to try out and PKR the balance 20.
However, while DAP can sweep the 25 seats it is contesting and decimate MCA and MIC in the process (with Gerakan and PPP probably not going to even waste their time contesting in Selangor just to get massacred), PKR and GHB would have to face PAS and Umno.
Therefore, for DAP it would be a no-contest in their 25 seats while in the 31 seats it would be four parties fighting for last place — PAS, Umno, PKR and GHB (there may even be a fifth party in that race but that is still being discussed).
It is expected that there is no way for PAS, Umno, PKR and GHB to win more than ten seats per party. I mean you cannot divide 31 by four and get more than ten per party. PKR and Umno might win ten seats each leaving the balance 11 for PAS and GHB to share.
With 25 seats versus ten or less for the other four parties, DAP would now become the head honcho in Selangor. Even now, with only 15 seats, it is already the de facto head honcho and calls the shots and decides what PAS and PKR can and cannot do.
DAP will field at least five Malay candidates amongst those 25, the constitutional law expert cum university lecturer being one of those five. DAP can then choose three names from those five and submit them to HRH the Sultan of Selangor as the new coalition’s choice for Selangor Menteri Besar.
And with that, for the first time in history since June 1947 when the post of Menteri Besar was created, Selangor would have a DAP Menteri Besar.
PAS can probably retain Kelantan and if they are clever enough can win Terengganu as well. After all, in the last general election PAS won 50% of the parliament seats in Terengganu and needed just two more seats to form the Terengganu state government (and just one seat for a hung state assembly).
Umno Terengganu is so badly split that Ahmad Said, the deposed Menteri Besar, would get his supporters to give the state to the opposition just to teach Umno a lesson. It seems a very bitter and vengeful Ahmad Said is in discussion with Umno Team B on killing off Umno in Terengganu while Lim Kit Siang is in discussion with GAN (the Gerakan Anti-Najib led by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad) to make sure that Penang and Selangor not only remain opposition but would be owned by DAP.
So we would end up with two states under DAP and two states under PAS and the rest of Malaysia under Barisan Nasional.
As for the Federal Territory, all the seats except Labuan and Putrajaya are going to be swept by the opposition while in Kelantan and Terengganu the opposition can take more than 50% of the votes and in Penang and Selangor at least two-thirds of the votes.
With that scenario in mind it would be extremely stupid of DAP to not take advantage of the turmoil in Umno and PAS, and to a lesser degree in PKR, to add Selangor to the list of states it owns. I mean, Selangor is going to be practically served to DAP on a silver platter.
SUMMARY: How DAP can get Selangor
Raja Petra’s forecast
- DAP will make their move on Selangor by fielding at least five Malay candidates, including new party member Abdul Aziz Bari, and one of them will be MB
- DAP may contest up to 25 DUN seats and win all through 85% to 90% Chinese support
- DAP will take advantage of Umno’s infighting and PAS’s break up
- DAP will grow even stronger because PKR is so wishy-washy
- Four parties are fighting for the Malay votes — PAS, Umno, PKR and GHB (or maybe five if Perkasa decides to become a political party)
- Maintaining their impressive track record of winning all the seats they contest, DAP is set to become the Selangor big boss
Kit Siang predicts PAS will lose almost all their S’gor seats
Kit Siang is convinced that the non-Muslims will no longer vote PAS and this will cause the Islamist party to lose up to seven parliament and 29 state seats nationwide in the next election. See ‘Kit Siang expects PAS to be decimated‘ (FMT, 31 March 2015).
He also expects PAS to lose 14 out of the 15 state seats the party is currently holding in Selangor. He blames PAS for betraying the trust of Pakatan voters who had supported the Common Policy Framework.
Selangor has 56 kawasan DUN and a simple majority is 29 seats.
Currently PKR have 13 Aduns and Umno 12. Former MB Khalid Ibrahim is an Independent Adun. DAP have 13 Chinese and two Indian Aduns but no Malay reps in Selangor.
Kit Siang believes PAS is in danger of losing nearly all its seats other than in Kedah and Kelantan.
He confidently predicts that “PAS may suffer a double whammy in the next general elections, completely wiped out in Johor, Perak and Malacca, virtually wiped out in Pahang and Kedah and may even lose power in Kelantan after 25 years of rule”.
BELOW: Hannah Yeoh’s Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday six tudung styles. The seventh day, Sunday, is the day she goes to church.
Percentage of Chinese & Indian voters in the 15 PAS S’gor state seats
- Gombak Setia: 11.7% Chinese, 9.2 % Indian
- Sabak: 13.2% C, 6.3% I
- Hulu Kelang: 14.3% C, 4.1% I
- Sijangkang: 15.1% C, 16.5% I
- Bangi: 19.0% C, 13.5% I
- Morib: 21.8% C, 15.6% I
- Selat Kelang: 25.0% C, 10.4% I
- Meru: 27.0% C, 12.4% I
- Tanjung Sepat: 28.1% C, 13.2% I
- Paya Jaras: 30.4% C, 11.4% I
- Lembah Jaya: 31.9% C, 12.7% I
- Taman Templer: 34.6% C, 13.0% I
- Seri Serdang: 36.1% C, 16.5% I
- Dusun Tua: 37.4% C, 6.9% I
- Chempaka: 38.2% C, 7.3% I
Raja Petra believes that the DAP will be contesting up to 25 DUNs in Selangor the next election. DAP has 15 state seats presently. For GE14, DAP will likely contest an additional 10 seats in the PAS areas.
The 10 PAS areas where PAS will probably be challenged by DAP candidates, including DAP Malay candidates, are:
- Morib: Malay 61.3%
- Selat Kelang: Malay 63.9%
- Meru: Malay 60.2%
- Tanjung Sepat: Malay 55.7%
- Paya Jaras: Malay 57.0%
- Lembah Jaya: Malay 54.3%
- Taman Templer: Malay 51.5%
- Seri Serdang: Malay 46.1%
- Dusun Tua: Malay 53.3%
- Chempaka: Malay 53.4%
Below is a hypothetical scenario of the Malay votes being split evenly between PAS and Umno while DAP gets all the non-Malay support.
- Morib: Umno 30.7%, PAS 30.7%, DAP 38.7%
- Selat Kelang: Umno 32.0%, PAS 32.0%, DAP 36.1%
- Meru: Umno 30.1%. PAS 30.1%; DAP 39.8%
- Tanjung Sepat: Umno 27.9%, PAS 27.9%, DAP 44.3%
- Paya Jaras: Umno 28.5%, PAS 28.5%, DAP 43.0%
- Lembah Jaya: Umno 27.2%, PAS 27.2%, DAP 45.7%
- Taman Templer: Umno 25.8%, 25.8%, DAP 48.5%
- Seri Serdang: Umno 23.1%, PAS 23.1%, DAP 45.9%
- Dusun Tua: Umno 26.7%, PAS 26.7%, DAP 46.7%
- Chempaka: Umno 26.7%, PAS 26.7%, DAP 46.6%
The 10 PAS Selangor seats above are vulnerable because the non-Malays make up between 40% and 50% of the voters in each seat.
We are assuming that Malay voters are not only split between PAS and Umno for GE14 but they could even be caught in three or four-cornered fights (PKR, New Hope, Perkasa). As for the non-Malays, the Chinese and Indian voters are all solidly behind the DAP.
If the Malay votes are split in two, then it is the DAP that has the upper hand in a situation where the Chinese and the Indians are almost unanimously pro-opposition. This is the reason why Raja Petra is entertaining the possibility that taiko DAP will soon own Selangor.