Raja Petra believes that with Malay votes split three ways, “Selangor is going to be practically served to DAP on a silver platter”. He also believes that by the next election, DAP will “own Selangor” and a DAP Malay will become the state Menteri Besar.
My article will be in four sections.
(A) Raja Petra’s column reproduced in full with his permission
(B) Summary of Raja Petra’s main points
(C) Prediction of PAS’s chances in Selangor by Kit Siang
(D) Demographic analysis of PAS seats in Selangor by Helen
DAP can now own Selangor
By Raja Petra Kamarudin
(The Corridors of Power, ‘Malaysia Today’, 14 Aug 2015)
With Pakatan Rakyat dead, PAS split into two, Umno facing a serious internal conflict, and PKR neither here nor there, DAP can now make its move to add Selangor as the second state after Penang that it owns.
As what the DAP supporters have reminded us again and again over the last couple of years, DAP has managed to garner 85% to 90% of the Chinese support nationwide with MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP gasping for their lives. Another thing to note is that DAP seems to win every seat it contests and this impressive track record is not expected to change come the next general election.
Selangor has 56 state seats, half of which can be considered Chinese-majority seats. Hence DAP has the potential to win at least 28 of those seats. Therefore, if DAP were to contest 25 state seats in Selangor it can most likely win all of them.
The balance 31 seats can be given to PKR and GHB to share. Being new and yet untested, GHB can be given 11 seats to try out and PKR the balance 20.
However, while DAP can sweep the 25 seats it is contesting and decimate MCA and MIC in the process (with Gerakan and PPP probably not going to even waste their time contesting in Selangor just to get massacred), PKR and GHB would have to face PAS and Umno.
Therefore, for DAP it would be a no-contest in their 25 seats while in the 31 seats it would be four parties fighting for last place — PAS, Umno, PKR and GHB (there may even be a fifth party in that race but that is still being discussed).
It is expected that there is no way for PAS, Umno, PKR and GHB to win more than ten seats per party. I mean you cannot divide 31 by four and get more than ten per party. PKR and Umno might win ten seats each leaving the balance 11 for PAS and GHB to share.
With 25 seats versus ten or less for the other four parties, DAP would now become the head honcho in Selangor. Even now, with only 15 seats, it is already the de facto head honcho and calls the shots and decides what PAS and PKR can and cannot do.
DAP will field at least five Malay candidates amongst those 25, the constitutional law expert cum university lecturer being one of those five. DAP can then choose three names from those five and submit them to HRH the Sultan of Selangor as the new coalition’s choice for Selangor Menteri Besar.
And with that, for the first time in history since June 1947 when the post of Menteri Besar was created, Selangor would have a DAP Menteri Besar.
PAS can probably retain Kelantan and if they are clever enough can win Terengganu as well. After all, in the last general election PAS won 50% of the parliament seats in Terengganu and needed just two more seats to form the Terengganu state government (and just one seat for a hung state assembly).
Umno Terengganu is so badly split that Ahmad Said, the deposed Menteri Besar, would get his supporters to give the state to the opposition just to teach Umno a lesson. It seems a very bitter and vengeful Ahmad Said is in discussion with Umno Team B on killing off Umno in Terengganu while Lim Kit Siang is in discussion with GAN (the Gerakan Anti-Najib led by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad) to make sure that Penang and Selangor not only remain opposition but would be owned by DAP.
So we would end up with two states under DAP and two states under PAS and the rest of Malaysia under Barisan Nasional.
As for the Federal Territory, all the seats except Labuan and Putrajaya are going to be swept by the opposition while in Kelantan and Terengganu the opposition can take more than 50% of the votes and in Penang and Selangor at least two-thirds of the votes.
With that scenario in mind it would be extremely stupid of DAP to not take advantage of the turmoil in Umno and PAS, and to a lesser degree in PKR, to add Selangor to the list of states it owns. I mean, Selangor is going to be practically served to DAP on a silver platter.
Source: http://www.malaysia-today.net/dap-can-now-own-selangor/
SUMMARY: How DAP can get Selangor
Raja Petra’s forecast
- DAP will make their move on Selangor by fielding at least five Malay candidates, including new party member Abdul Aziz Bari, and one of them will be MB
. - DAP may contest up to 25 DUN seats and win all through 85% to 90% Chinese support
. - DAP will take advantage of Umno’s infighting and PAS’s break up
. - DAP will grow even stronger because PKR is so wishy-washy
. - Four parties are fighting for the Malay votes — PAS, Umno, PKR and GHB (or maybe five if Perkasa decides to become a political party)
. - Maintaining their impressive track record of winning all the seats they contest, DAP is set to become the Selangor big boss
Kit Siang predicts PAS will lose almost all their S’gor seats
Kit Siang is convinced that the non-Muslims will no longer vote PAS and this will cause the Islamist party to lose up to seven parliament and 29 state seats nationwide in the next election. See ‘Kit Siang expects PAS to be decimated‘ (FMT, 31 March 2015).
He also expects PAS to lose 14 out of the 15 state seats the party is currently holding in Selangor. He blames PAS for betraying the trust of Pakatan voters who had supported the Common Policy Framework.
Selangor has 56 kawasan DUN and a simple majority is 29 seats.
Currently PKR have 13 Aduns and Umno 12. Former MB Khalid Ibrahim is an Independent Adun. DAP have 13 Chinese and two Indian Aduns but no Malay reps in Selangor.
Kit Siang believes PAS is in danger of losing nearly all its seats other than in Kedah and Kelantan.
He confidently predicts that “PAS may suffer a double whammy in the next general elections, completely wiped out in Johor, Perak and Malacca, virtually wiped out in Pahang and Kedah and may even lose power in Kelantan after 25 years of rule”.
BELOW: Hannah Yeoh’s Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday six tudung styles. The seventh day, Sunday, is the day she goes to church.
Percentage of Chinese & Indian voters in the 15 PAS S’gor state seats
- Gombak Setia: 11.7% Chinese, 9.2 % Indian
- Sabak: 13.2% C, 6.3% I
- Hulu Kelang: 14.3% C, 4.1% I
- Sijangkang: 15.1% C, 16.5% I
- Bangi: 19.0% C, 13.5% I
- Morib: 21.8% C, 15.6% I
- Selat Kelang: 25.0% C, 10.4% I
- Meru: 27.0% C, 12.4% I
- Tanjung Sepat: 28.1% C, 13.2% I
- Paya Jaras: 30.4% C, 11.4% I
- Lembah Jaya: 31.9% C, 12.7% I
- Taman Templer: 34.6% C, 13.0% I
- Seri Serdang: 36.1% C, 16.5% I
- Dusun Tua: 37.4% C, 6.9% I
- Chempaka: 38.2% C, 7.3% I
Raja Petra believes that the DAP will be contesting up to 25 DUNs in Selangor the next election. DAP has 15 state seats presently. For GE14, DAP will likely contest an additional 10 seats in the PAS areas.
The 10 PAS areas where PAS will probably be challenged by DAP candidates, including DAP Malay candidates, are:
- Morib: Malay 61.3%
- Selat Kelang: Malay 63.9%
- Meru: Malay 60.2%
- Tanjung Sepat: Malay 55.7%
- Paya Jaras: Malay 57.0%
- Lembah Jaya: Malay 54.3%
- Taman Templer: Malay 51.5%
- Seri Serdang: Malay 46.1%
- Dusun Tua: Malay 53.3%
- Chempaka: Malay 53.4%
Below is a hypothetical scenario of the Malay votes being split evenly between PAS and Umno while DAP gets all the non-Malay support.
- Morib: Umno 30.7%, PAS 30.7%, DAP 38.7%
. - Selat Kelang: Umno 32.0%, PAS 32.0%, DAP 36.1%
. - Meru: Umno 30.1%. PAS 30.1%; DAP 39.8%
. - Tanjung Sepat: Umno 27.9%, PAS 27.9%, DAP 44.3%
. - Paya Jaras: Umno 28.5%, PAS 28.5%, DAP 43.0%
. - Lembah Jaya: Umno 27.2%, PAS 27.2%, DAP 45.7%
. - Taman Templer: Umno 25.8%, 25.8%, DAP 48.5%
. - Seri Serdang: Umno 23.1%, PAS 23.1%, DAP 45.9%
. - Dusun Tua: Umno 26.7%, PAS 26.7%, DAP 46.7%
. - Chempaka: Umno 26.7%, PAS 26.7%, DAP 46.6%
The 10 PAS Selangor seats above are vulnerable because the non-Malays make up between 40% and 50% of the voters in each seat.
We are assuming that Malay voters are not only split between PAS and Umno for GE14 but they could even be caught in three or four-cornered fights (PKR, New Hope, Perkasa). As for the non-Malays, the Chinese and Indian voters are all solidly behind the DAP.
If the Malay votes are split in two, then it is the DAP that has the upper hand in a situation where the Chinese and the Indians are almost unanimously pro-opposition. This is the reason why Raja Petra is entertaining the possibility that taiko DAP will soon own Selangor.
Continues:
Helen Ang 
Selangor is an important state with rich resources and men power. We should go for a coalition government and not to be governed by BN or the opposition party. I believe that Selangorians will support a coalition government in the next PRU14.
This is one scenario out of many which is predicated on the belief that the situation will remain static in a very fluid political situation in Malaysia and that nothing changes. To his credit RPK qualifies the forecasts and assumptions with a number of “ifs”.
What needs to be considered is what occurs between now and election time. Malaysia’s electorates and its eligible voters in the various constituencies are as fickle as they are elsewhere.
Any right thinking person of average intelligence will shudder to think what could happen to a country held ransom by an opposition with no sense of justice or ideas of justice and fairness.
MACC now stacked with a few opposition candidates are testament to what could happen when one gets a government of these to run the country.
Lets make forecasts and analyse market trends closer to an election.
re: “What needs to be considered is what occurs between now and election time.”
Between now and 2018, Umno desperately needs to check the advance of the evangelistas and the influence of Jerusubang, their spiritual state capital.
re: “Malaysia’s electorates and its eligible voters in the various constituencies are as fickle as they are elsewhere.”
Their fickleness could also mean that it’s easier for the evangelistas, Sekolah Demokrasi DAP and the newly recruited hip and happenin’ DAP like Dyana, Rara, and other young Malays faces etc to brainwash Selangor’s youth (first-time voters in 2018).
re: “Any right thinking person of average intelligence will shudder to think what could happen to a country held ransom by an opposition with no sense of justice or ideas of justice and fairness.”
An opposition that tells lies all the time and fabricates lies about their opponents without batting an eyelid. An opposition that not only swears Bak Kut Teh is not pork but is able to persuade you to eat their dish by making you believe that it is an organic vegetarian treat.
That’s good news
Helen,
Interesting analysis.
There is another factor called demographic change. Malay constituentcy such as Bangi, Semenyih, Ampang, Pandan are seeing massive changes.
Meaning housing developments that bring in non Malay votes . The last election saw the number of non Malay voters increase by 6000 in Seri Serdang. in 2008. UMNO pulled through by a mere majority of 45 votes. It lost the seat in 2013.
Drive through Hulu Kelang and you can see massive development in prime areas with Mat Salleh name. Meaning slowly the percentage of non malay increases in Hulu Kelang.
UMNO to a degree is bleeding. And PAS is seeing challenges by the sore losers.
DAP reigns supreme in PR Selangor. PKR will be reduced significantly in next election. Even in last election, the support for PKR is mainly non malays.
DAP will lose majority of malay votes as PAS diassociates with it. But it will earn Chinrse votes in totality.
My advices to Najib is not to field MCA, MIC, Gerakan. It would be sheer waste of money, time.
Thanks for the reminder Shamshul. The ethnic breakdown percentages are old figures and may not accurately reflect the new UBAH that the Pakatan gomen had effected since they took power in 2008.
No need to UBAH just transfer the consented voters addresses by political parties and everything is changed.
Lepas itu baru nampak siapa menang…..
The DAP Charlie’s Angels won with super majorities.
Teresa Kok’s majority in Seputeh Parliament was 51,552. Yeo Bee Yin’s majority in Damansara Utama DUN was 30,689 while Hannah Yeoh’s majority in Subang Jaya DUN was 28,069.
The three evangelistas can each safely spare 20,000 to 40,000 of their hardcore DAP supporters to be address transferred to other closely fought seats.
Exactly Helen. That should be the political parties newest bipartisan motto: ‘Change address, we must! Now we must seek the new RM2.6 billion to win GE14’
Hahaha.
The oppo also got their hundreds of million ringgit war chest, I’m sure.
Why can’t DAP win Selangor, if the Selangor people vote for them?
OK, they are the low life evangelistas having a propensity to cheat and are the greatest munafiks. They wear fake tudungs and kopiahs to prey on unassuming Malay Muslims, giving peanuts to gain publicity by entering masjids and suraus with permission from innocent AJKs.
If those cheats are effective, BN can also do that but why don’t they?
Are those Selangor Malay Muslims really that unassuming and innocent?
In the first place, what actually divide the Malays in Selangor? Stupidity? Or is it because there’s no capable leader amongst the Selangor Malays?
Since independence, the Selangor government was run by Malays. Mat Mat Taib, Abu Hassan, Khir Toyol, Khaled Ibraheem, and now Asmyn Elly, and next possibly the great Noh Omar. The Selangor Malays should be happy and feel secure that the constitutional privileges will be safeguarded and they will live happily ever after. Yet they don’t. They now suffered big divide, be it their thinking, their religion, their political affiliations, and almost everything else. Why?
Their leaders are corrupted to the core, to the extent Allah no longer exist in their heart. Border guards at Mal-Thai checkpoints were reported to be more than 80% on the take. Gaji alone is no longer enough, for all of them. Government servants in Malaysia have big houses, they spent thousands to renovate, and tear down and re-renovate again. They have many cars, they buy gold chains in cash, they travel to UK doesn’t matter how high is the exchange rates.
So, may be they don’t trust their kind anymore?
So, this is a parliamentary democracy. If you don’t like mata sepet, give Bengali a try. Tamil also no problem, Iban, Kadazan, even Jakun also fine, as long as they truly work for this Country and not for their personal bank account.
We do not need RPK to tell us that. But he definitely has a motive. he is trying to drive a wedge in between DAP and PKR.
What a stupid headline for the story!
Why use the word “SAPU” instead of a less demeaning word if not for attention seeking? Some people still haven’t learned from history of politics. Go on, announce to the world (all and sundry) of your possible…or even a definite victory and start insulting or uttering with imprudence or complete disregard/disrespect for the other party(ies) supporters’ chances/hopes and rile/enrage them to the brink of despair! Remember, political scenerios are very fluid and illogical circumstances could be easily created and fanned to gain/regain any speck of advantage. Remember Anwar Ibrahim? Didn’t he announced to everyone what he can do and is about to do??? No doubt that was a strategy to shore up support…but, the end result remained the same – total failure! Why?? Because he alerted his target what was about to happen and this gave them time to counter or strategise plans to render any plot ineffective/useless. It’s always best to achieve your goals first before announcing to the world what could be achieved. Never announce your advantage until it has already materialised. Sure, DAP might need to shore up their solid support too but do it in a discrete and non divisive way. The divide between success and failure is very blur indeed and a simple wrong move will determine the outcome of a brilliant or stupid move. Always be magnanimous in victory in order for the defeated to be gracious!
‘Why use the word “SAPU” instead of a less demeaning word if not for attention seeking?’
Aiyoo, ‘sapu’ sudah jadi demeaning meh? Macam ‘pendatang’ is it? Habis la vocab Melayu makin kurang lah macam ni, bila setiap kali Dapster yang Melayu tatau cakap, tapi ada hati (muka?) nak ajar BM!
As i see it, PM Najib can secure Selangor only if he has eliminated the threat of Dr M on the ground. Everyone knows winning back Selangor will cement Najib’s legitimacy and dominance among the UMNO grassroots nationwide.
Between now and GE14, if Dr M chose to, he can easily manipulate his supporters’ network in Selangor to undermine BN/UMNO.
Let’s not forget, Perkasa’s Ibrahim Ali is Ayahanda Dr M super-loyalist and through his control of Perkasa movement can sabotage BN/UMNO Selangor on ground.
With MAS and Proton both having large operations in Selangor with thousands of jobs and families tied to them, recent moves by the government to restructure and promote competition will result in job losses. This could affect voters sentiments, especially Malays voter. As it is, Dr M had already been sounding out about Proton’s failure to secure huge funding from the government. After decades of protection, taxpayers are still been asked to support Dr M’s pet project.
There’s also been recent sightings of a few UMNO Selangor Aduns meetings with Dr M’s people. In case of taking over Selangor government before GE14, PM Najib should not be complacent about UMNO Selangor’s readiness because every insiders know the state divisions are full of warlords of undetermined loyalties that Noh Omar is barely in control of.
PM Najib should be careful that letting Muhyiddin, Dr M and their people crawl freely around the country can be destabilizing to the BN government. Be decisive and bold if we want to win back Selangor and maintain power in Malaysia…
~ AJK Masjid Tanah
Learn to crawl before you scramble to walk. Generally, it is uncouth to bring realpolitik into the prayer hall.