A Malaysian born in 1997 would be eligible to vote for the first time in 2018 (as at May 4).
During GE11 @ 2004, he would have been seven years old.
During GE12 @ 2008, he would have been eleven years old.
During GE13 @ 2013, he would have been sixteen years old.
Come GE14 @ 2018 (probable), he would be legally an adult.
Click to enlarge
MCA media empire for the opposition’s benefit
The above stacked chart shows age distribution in the Malaysian population. The data bands are Census 2010 figures.
Look at the bar that I’ve highlighted in red above. That is the 15-19 age group.
A Malaysian who was 15 years old in 2010 would be an adult (over 21) by the year 2018 when the general election is likely going to be held. We’re looking at roughly some 2.75 million potential new voters from this band alone if they register themselves to vote.
DAP has been busy, busy, busy registering first-time voters. And MCA has been insidiously promoting the DAP evangelistas who are at the forefront of the outreach to the youths.
Umno, I believe, is still sleeping.
Bunch of kids from 2004 have all grown up!
From the population chart above, we can see that there were fewer young people under the age of 15 in 2013 (blue colour bar – 13th general election year) than there were in 2004 (red colour bar – 11th general election year).
The 0-14 age cohort a decade ago are today growing up and will comprise the bulk of new, first-time voters in 2018.
Comparing the senior citizens (over 65) between 2004 and 2013, we see that there was a slight increase in the number of elderly. Demographically, Malaysia is a young country that has experienced rapid population growth.
BELOW: Tun’s Team and their ages come 2018; Pardon my ageism but KuLi is unfortunately too old to be the Prime Minister of GE14
Malaysia’s Merdeka baby boomers
Interesting trivia – the highest birth rate was recorded in 1956-58 because (my guess) the new citizens were euphoric at the birth of our nation, optimistic about the future and happily making babies.
Trivia #2 – Marina Mahathir was born on 11 May 1957 in Alor Setar.
Since that Merdeka peak, Malaysia’s fertility rate has been steadily decreasing. This downward trend is understandable. Urbanization and growing affluence means that young couples are having smaller families.
Back to the two bar charts above.
Look at the cluster representing the young in age cohort. Another reminder – anyone 18 years old today would be eligible to vote in the year 2018, yah.
Why is the MCA media promoting Hannah Yeoh? Want BN to die, is it?
DAP is way ahead in GE14 strategies
The evangelical party has been traipsing across Christian-majority Sarawak peddling its Impian Sarawak. The DAP is also selling its Sabah Dream.
They’re mounting their attack on Johor and were even willing to oust former DAP Johor chairman Dr Boo Cheng Hau from the party’s state exco line-up. The newly elected DAP office bearers in Johor are Liew Chin Tong’s young team and they’re cohesive.
The DAP Johor old guard comprising Dr Boo, Norman Fernandez (ex-DAP Johor deputy chairman) and Ahmad Ton (ex-DAP Johor vice chairman) have all been shunted aside.
Just like the PAS party election purged the Erdogans so that those who remain among the top leadership are only ulama, likewise the DAP party election is moving into place the Firster faction.
Let’s review the possible DAP election tactics.
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DAP superstars and their super majorities
The table above lists the Yang Berhormats who obtained the DAP’s ten biggest Parliamentary majorities in GE13.
Teresa Kok won her Seputeh Parliament seat with a Godzilla-sized majority of 51,552 votes. She received a total of 61,500 votes while her MCA challenger only got 9,948.
(Side note: At DUN level, evangelistas Hannah Yeoh and Yeo Bee Yin won their state assembly seats with humongous majorities too.)
The top 10 Parliament seats with the DAP super majorities are:
- Seputeh (51,552)
- Bukit Mertajam (43,063)
- Serdang (42,206)
- Bukit Gelugor (41,778)
- Petaling Jaya Utara (41,672)
- Kepong (40,307)
- Batu Gajah (38,596)
- Cheras (37,409)
- Bagan (34,159)
- Ipoh Timor (34,000)
Their majorities alone are bigger than the entire electorate in many rural seats. The 10 DAP majorities above total 404,742 votes.
BELOW: Is MCA still being funded anymore by the Chinese tycoons or have the Tan Sris shifted their money bags to the DAP?
DAP has rock solid Chinese support
The number of Malaysians who voted DAP in their Chinese strongholds are:
- Serdang (79,238)
- Seputeh (61,500)
- Petaling Jaya Utara (57,407)
- Bukit Mertajam (55,877)
- Bukit Gelugor (55,839)
- Batu Gajah (53,900)
- Ipoh Timor (49,086)
- Kepong (47,837)
- Cheras (48,249)
- Bagan (46,466)
From the 10 super seats alone, the DAP obtained a total of 547,859 votes. These 10 urban seats are high density population centres, so there are a lot of voters here compared to Malaysia’s sparser rural constituencies.
This weightage which is favourable to rural areas can be illustrated by comparing the votes obtained altogether by PAS and DAP.
DAP contested in a total of 51 mostly urban Parliament seats – winning 38 – and collected 1,633,389 votes.
PAS contested in a total of 73 mostly rural Parliament seats – winning 21 – and collected 1,736,267 votes.
Kalau tak tipu bukan DAP namanya
From the DAP’s 10 highest majority seats, the party obtained altogether 547,859 votes.
The opposition (DAP and PKR) have been bragging that they have the popular vote and falsely misrepresent BN as a “minority government”.
Here’s the lowdown.
True, the three Pakatan parties did win the popular vote but only at 50.1 percent or a combined total of 5,623,984 votes. BN had 47.4 percent or 5,237,699 votes.
Thus, Pakatan should NOT kebas (commandeer) the votes obtained by third parties like PSM, Jeffrey Kitingan’s STAR, PCM, SAPP, etc as well as those of the Independent candidates, and brazenly claim that these are Pakatan votes (they’re not!)
While the non-BN votes may be 52+ percent, the Pakatan votes are not 53 percent (ditokok-tambah) as they’ve been misleading the public.
Here’s when the penny drops.
The DAP’s 547,859 votes in its 10 sardine-packed seats make up close to 10 percent (9.74%) of all the “popular vote” garnered by Pakatan in GE13.
So when the opposition crow that they have the popular vote, it’s really thanks to the Cina totok votes in the DAP pekat super-majority wards.
DAP heartache and heartbreak over the sheer waste
If I were the DAP, I’d also be crying over the wastage of the party’s vote bank.
Take Teresa Kok’s 51,552 vote-majority in Seputeh. In our first-past-the-post electoral system, even if candidate A got a mere 100 votes more than candidate B, he still wins the seat.
Does Teresa (below, borrowing a leaf from Hannah’s book) really need to win by a margin of 50,000-plus? The answer is No-ooo-oo.
MCA president Liow Tiong Lai, for example, won his Bentong Parliament seat with a teeny-weeny majority of 379.
Labis, which is the Parliament seat held by former MCA president Dr Chua Soi Lek and contested the last election by his son Chua Tee Yong, was retained on an even slimmer majority of 353 votes. Chua Jr obtained 15,821 votes against his DAP challenger’s 15,468.
If you were DAP, what would you do with mati-mati sokong Roket voters in your IMPOSSIBLE to lose seats like Seputeh?
Wouldn’t you transfer them to marginal mixed seats where your party stands a fighting chance of winning, especially with the help of young, first-time voters?