Is DAP transferring out supporters to vote in marginal mixed seats?!

October 19, 2015 at 10:04 pm 20 comments

A Malaysian born in 1997 would be eligible to vote for the first time in 2018 (as at May 4).

During GE11 @ 2004, he would have been seven years old.

During GE12 @ 2008, he would have been eleven years old.

During GE13 @ 2013, he would have been sixteen years old.

Come GE14 @ 2018 (probable), he would be legally an adult.

Click to enlarge

Malaysia Population 2010

MCA media empire for the opposition’s benefit

The above stacked chart shows age distribution in the Malaysian population. The data bands are Census 2010 figures.

Look at the bar that I’ve highlighted in red above. That is the 15-19 age group.

A Malaysian who was 15 years old in 2010 would be an adult (over 21) by the year 2018 when the general election is likely going to be held. We’re looking at roughly some 2.75 million potential new voters from this band alone if they register themselves to vote.

DAP has been busy, busy, busy registering first-time voters. And MCA has been insidiously promoting the DAP evangelistas who are at the forefront of the outreach to the youths.

Umno, I believe, is still sleeping.

Malaysia Population 2004-2013

Bunch of kids from 2004 have all grown up!

From the population chart above, we can see that there were fewer young people under the age of 15 in 2013 (blue colour bar – 13th general election year) than there were in 2004 (red colour bar – 11th general election year).

The 0-14 age cohort a decade ago are today growing up and will comprise the bulk of new, first-time voters in 2018.

Comparing the senior citizens (over 65) between 2004 and 2013, we see that there was a slight increase in the number of elderly. Demographically, Malaysia is a young country that has experienced rapid population growth.

BELOW: Tun’s Team and their ages come 2018; Pardon my ageism but KuLi is unfortunately too old to be the Prime Minister of GE14

Tun Magnificent Seven

Malaysia’s Merdeka baby boomers

Interesting trivia – the highest birth rate was recorded in 1956-58 because (my guess) the new citizens were euphoric at the birth of our nation, optimistic about the future and happily making babies.

Trivia #2 – Marina Mahathir was born on 11 May 1957 in Alor Setar.

Since that Merdeka peak, Malaysia’s fertility rate has been steadily decreasing. This downward trend is understandable. Urbanization and growing affluence means that young couples are having smaller families.

Back to the two bar charts above.

Look at the cluster representing the young in age cohort. Another reminder – anyone 18 years old today would be eligible to vote in the year 2018, yah.

Why is the MCA media promoting Hannah Yeoh? Want BN to die, is it?

DAP is way ahead in GE14 strategies

The evangelical party has been traipsing across Christian-majority Sarawak peddling its Impian Sarawak. The DAP is also selling its Sabah Dream.

They’re mounting their attack on Johor and were even willing to oust former DAP Johor chairman Dr Boo Cheng Hau from the party’s state exco line-up. The newly elected DAP office bearers in Johor are Liew Chin Tong’s young team and they’re cohesive.

The DAP Johor old guard comprising Dr Boo, Norman Fernandez (ex-DAP Johor deputy chairman) and Ahmad Ton (ex-DAP Johor vice chairman) have all been shunted aside.

Just like the PAS party election purged the Erdogans so that those who remain among the top leadership are only ulama, likewise the DAP party election is moving into place the Firster faction.

Let’s review the possible DAP election tactics.

Click to enlarge

PRU13dapTop10

DAP superstars and their super majorities

The table above lists the Yang Berhormats who obtained the DAP’s ten biggest Parliamentary majorities in GE13.

Teresa Kok won her Seputeh Parliament seat with a Godzilla-sized majority of 51,552 votes. She received a total of 61,500 votes while her MCA challenger only got 9,948.

(Side note: At DUN level, evangelistas Hannah Yeoh and Yeo Bee Yin won their state assembly seats with humongous majorities too.)

The top 10 Parliament seats with the DAP super majorities are:

  1. Seputeh (51,552)
  2. Bukit Mertajam (43,063)
  3. Serdang (42,206)
  4. Bukit Gelugor (41,778)
  5. Petaling Jaya Utara (41,672)
  6. Kepong (40,307)
  7. Batu Gajah (38,596)
  8. Cheras (37,409)
  9. Bagan (34,159)
  10. Ipoh Timor (34,000)

Their majorities alone are bigger than the entire electorate in many rural seats. The 10 DAP majorities above total 404,742 votes.

BELOW: Is MCA still being funded anymore by the Chinese tycoons or have the Tan Sris shifted their money bags to the DAP?

Billionaire word cloud

DAP has rock solid Chinese support

The number of Malaysians who voted DAP in their Chinese strongholds are:

  1. Serdang (79,238)
  2. Seputeh (61,500)
  3. Petaling Jaya Utara (57,407)
  4. Bukit Mertajam (55,877)
  5. Bukit Gelugor (55,839)
  6. Batu Gajah (53,900)
  7. Ipoh Timor (49,086)
  8. Kepong (47,837)
  9. Cheras (48,249)
  10. Bagan (46,466)

From the 10 super seats alone, the DAP obtained a total of 547,859 votes. These 10 urban seats are high density population centres, so there are a lot of voters here compared to Malaysia’s sparser rural constituencies.

This weightage which is favourable to rural areas can be illustrated by comparing the votes obtained altogether by PAS and DAP.

DAP contested in a total of 51 mostly urban Parliament seats – winning 38 – and collected 1,633,389 votes.

PAS contested in a total of 73 mostly rural Parliament seats – winning 21 – and collected 1,736,267 votes.

popularvote

Kalau tak tipu bukan DAP namanya

From the DAP’s 10 highest majority seats, the party obtained altogether 547,859 votes.

The opposition (DAP and PKR) have been bragging that they have the popular vote and falsely misrepresent BN as a “minority government”.

Here’s the lowdown.

True, the three Pakatan parties did win the popular vote but only at 50.1 percent or a combined total of 5,623,984 votes. BN had 47.4 percent or 5,237,699 votes.

Thus, Pakatan should NOT kebas (commandeer) the votes obtained by third parties like PSM, Jeffrey Kitingan’s STAR, PCM, SAPP, etc as well as those of the Independent candidates, and brazenly claim that these are Pakatan votes (they’re not!)

While the non-BN votes may be 52+ percent, the Pakatan votes are not 53 percent (ditokok-tambah) as they’ve been misleading the public.

top-10-3-59523_250x220

Here’s when the penny drops.

The DAP’s 547,859 votes in its 10 sardine-packed seats make up close to 10 percent (9.74%) of all the “popular vote” garnered by Pakatan in GE13.

So when the opposition crow that they have the popular vote, it’s really thanks to the Cina totok votes in the DAP pekat super-majority wards.

Hannah Yeoh heartbreak

DAP heartache and heartbreak over the sheer waste

If I were the DAP, I’d also be crying over the wastage of the party’s vote bank.

Take Teresa Kok’s 51,552 vote-majority in Seputeh. In our first-past-the-post electoral system, even if candidate A got a mere 100 votes more than candidate B, he still wins the seat.

Does Teresa (below, borrowing a leaf from Hannah’s book) really need to win by a margin of 50,000-plus? The answer is No-ooo-oo.

Teresa Kok

MCA president Liow Tiong Lai, for example, won his Bentong Parliament seat with a teeny-weeny majority of 379.

Labis, which is the Parliament seat held by former MCA president Dr Chua Soi Lek and contested the last election by his son Chua Tee Yong, was retained on an even slimmer majority of 353 votes. Chua Jr obtained 15,821 votes against his DAP challenger’s 15,468.

Impossible-Shontelle

If you were DAP, what would you do with mati-mati sokong Roket voters in your IMPOSSIBLE to lose seats like Seputeh?

Wouldn’t you transfer them to marginal mixed seats where your party stands a fighting chance of winning, especially with the help of young, first-time voters?

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Entry filed under: Evangeliblis. Tags: , , .

The daughter-in-law from hell Tahu lah kita sekarang kenapa Gerakan boleh duduk tempat tercorot

20 Comments Add your own

  • 1. kampong lad  |  October 20, 2015 at 12:40 am

    “is dap transferring out supporters…”

    yes, they should transfer the ‘surplus’ to east malaysia. afterall gerrymandering is not illegal. the top ten majority seats simpan 10k/seat cukup la – 100k voters. 304k+ pi sana naik tongkang. boleh buat duit wor!

    Reply
  • 2. Equalizer.  |  October 20, 2015 at 12:50 am

    “UMNO, I believe, is still sleeping” …This I agreed with you 110%, Helen. The glaring weakness of the malay and therefore UMNO, is their “tidak apa” attitude…Never mind lah… relax lah.. Next time lah…No complain now ma..why care?… wait first lah.. mari minum teh dulu..itu kemudianlah… aiyah, tommorrow can do what..after that forgotten…. aiyah you work hard gaji pun serupalah..These are the common comments related to their daily work.

    I have been working together with the malays for the past 30 yrs and I find all these comments from them very amusing. Of course not all of them are like that, but to put it mildly majority of them are.They don’t seem to understand the urgency to get a job done well and on time.

    UMNO will be caught sleeping if the malays do not change this attitude of “never mind”. My only wish is to see UMNO wake up and fight DAP head-on as DAP had become a very arrogant and vile group of hatred monger.

    Reply
    • 3. shamshul Anuar  |  October 20, 2015 at 2:51 am

      Helen,

      I remember reading a comment in one Malay newspaper on sharp increase of non Malay voters in Rembau in last election. In Seri Serdang( Selangor) there was a increase of around 6000 non Malay voters in la st election as compared to 2008.

      The percentage of non Malay voters increases in Pandan. In 2008, Malays constituted 49% of voters. in 2013. Malays were 44% of voters.

      Johari Abdul Ghani, a popular Titiwangsa MP once wrote on increase of non Malay voters in his constituency. In a matter of another one election, I believe Hulu Kelang will become mixed constituency from Malay majority area, no thanks on massive development that have no place for Malay community.

      The same thing is happening in Bangi. New housing development with non Malay names is making Malay share of voters decreasing. The pattern can be seen too in Shah Alam.

      What happened to Lembah Pantai? Massive development brings in non Malay voters who finally edged UMNO out.

      Reply
      • 4. drinho  |  October 20, 2015 at 8:52 am

        What is the problem if a development/urbanisation changes the demography of a constituency? This is a free market. Developer is free to develop an area subject to compliance with law. Anyone may buy the property as long as he/she has the money.

        Reply
  • 5. aku  |  October 20, 2015 at 9:48 am

    akhirnya kak helen muncul dengan graf-graf yg bombastik..at least relevan juga idea saya..thanks

    Reply
  • 6. aku  |  October 20, 2015 at 9:58 am

    kadang-kadang saya rasakan agensi-agensi seperti SPR dan JPN tidak berfungsi sepenuhnya dalam memantau jumlah pertambahan pengundi yg agak drastik..sepatutnya mereka (kalau ada loyalti la) perlu bekerjasama dengan parti-parti pemerintah (BN) untuk merangka strategi atau sekurang-kurangnya ALERT tentang bahana peningkatan pengundi bangsa Tionghua di Selangor khasnya…adakah BN tak kisah untuk rampas Selangor? Asalkan mereka masih boleh menang dengan hanya pengundi-pengundi dari negeri-negeri lain..saya rasa DAP (especially) lebih ke depan dalam menyusun-atur pengundi-pengundi mereka dan mereka mungkin sudahpun mencongak-congak Parlimen/DUN mana yg mereka confident akan menang masa PRU14 nanti..thanks

    Reply
  • 7. norman  |  October 20, 2015 at 10:02 am

    If UMNO can contain all the red-shirts who does more damage to UMNO’s image, and BN help elect another leader to be PM, and resolve the issues affecting the ordinary people, trust me the voters will return to BN. Now, even the Malays have ditched Najib. Najib is an election liability and it is this which provides an opportunity for DAP.

    Reply
    • 8. shamshul anuar  |  October 20, 2015 at 6:56 pm

      Norman,

      “…red shirts who does more damage to UMNO’s image…

      From whose perception? Chinese?

      Even before Najib took over, they already decided to bury UMNO. Contrary to your perception, the Red Shirt does not damage UMNO’s image. The Red Shirt movements result can be seen immediately. The movement manages to put sanity to Chinese. suddenly they began to grasp the universal “law of Physic”.

      Suddenly Chinese politicians begin to realise and understand that demonstrations do not bring any good when demonstrators are at in front of Petaling street. Now they appreciate when malay traders said demonstrations do not bring any positive element.

      Malays no doubt have issue with Najib. But BERSIH simply make them believe what UMNO has been saying about DAP.

      DAP ni racist.

      Reply
      • 9. Nica  |  October 23, 2015 at 9:40 pm

        I fucking hate Melayu like that. Eat your red underwear la.

        Reply
  • 10. Pwincess  |  October 20, 2015 at 10:28 am

    Kak Helen,

    Mufti of Pahang said that DAP is anti-Islam. I believe the Mufti but I am also waiting for DAP to sue him. Why so lambat one? In fact, DAP should also sue the Jabatan Agama Islam Pahang (JAIP) and the Sultan of Pahang, because both the Mufti and JAIP are under the Sultan’s purview. Ada berani?

    As what the Mufti of Pahang said, DAP is anti-Islam.

    Love,
    Pwincess.

    Reply
  • 11. C72  |  October 20, 2015 at 1:59 pm

    Just a speculation:
    What if deep down, the Opposition never really wants to take over? They are just there to be a counter party, creating enough fuss to seem credible but not enough that they have to be stuck with actually doing the real work?

    And in the meantime, reap whatever benefit they can get.

    As for the Star, is it also just playing a role to be seemingly pro-oppo for the urban market advertising dollar ? And by virtue of their contributions to the coffers, it has been given some leeway in promoting its evangelist worldview for some shiok sendiri satisfaction because the powers that be know pretty well that there is little chance of Muslims converting en mass?

    In other words, this could all be the modern version of Rome’s bread & circus strategy. Unfortunately, almost everyone thinks that circus now is real… but nothing is ever real, is it?

    Reply
  • 12. orang biasa  |  October 20, 2015 at 6:00 pm

    hai helen

    Memindahkan penyokong mungkin satu strategi yang baik untuk DAP.

    Pembangunan perumahan yang tak mampu melayu beli satu pemangkin untuk strategi itu.

    walaubagaimana pun untuk membuatnya bukanya mudah,setakat menambah bilangan kerusi yang dimenangi itu mungkin tetapi untuk berkuasa memerintah malaysia jauh sekali.

    kerana apa yang saya nampak walau pun orang cina (penyokong DAP) pada tahun 2018 berjumlah kira kira 24% penduduk malaysia tapi peratus pada cohort pengundi baru itu hanya 18% sahaja berbanding melayu 58%.

    dan kadar pertambahan pengundi yang layak mendaftar pula lebih kurang 1 cina 3 melayu.

    pada plihanraya 2013 daripada 165 kerusi parlimen di semenanjung ,hanya terdapat 17 kerusi parlimen yang peratus pengundi cina bertambah dari pilihanraya 2008 dimana yang terbanyak di selangor 6 dari 21 kawasan parlimen.148 kawasan lagi turun peratusnya.

    so dalam untuk menambah jumlah penyokong dalam sesuatu kawasan DAP juga akan menghadapi penurunan peratus penyokongnya dalam kawasan–kawasan yang telah dimenanginya.
    di sebabkan penambahan pengundi secara biasa.

    Reply
    • 13. Helen Ang  |  October 20, 2015 at 6:23 pm

      re: “so dalam untuk menambah jumlah penyokong dalam sesuatu kawasan DAP juga akan menghadapi penurunan peratus penyokongnya dalam kawasan–kawasan yang telah dimenanginya”

      Tak menjadi masalah. Majoriti DAP besar. Contohnya kerusi Teresa Kok, lebih 50,000.

      re: “tetapi untuk berkuasa memerintah malaysia jauh sekali”

      Minoriti boleh memerintah.

      Obama tidak disokong majoriti orang kulit putih Amerika Syarikat. Namun beliau membolot hampir semua undi orang kulit hitam serta disokong kuat orang Amerika keturunan Latino/Hispanic, bangsa Asia berserta lobi berkepentingan (gay, ibu tunggal dsb).

      Reply
      • 14. shamshul anuar  |  October 20, 2015 at 6:59 pm

        Helen,

        Betul tu.

        Minority can rule. In malaysian context, get Malays to hate Najib. To get the political power, just destroy the only stumbling block:UMNO.

        And to destroy UMNO, throw slanders day in day out.

        Reply
      • 15. orang biasa  |  October 21, 2015 at 12:09 pm

        Hai helen

        bolehkah DAP membahagikan majority yang dimenangi itu sehingga ia boleh memenangi jumlah kerusi yang membolehkan ia memerintah?

        apa cara lain selain dari cara membeli rumah,pindah,tukar alamat ic dan daftar sebagai pengundi(Baru) atau tukar kawasan bagi pengundi yang dah berdaftar untuk membahagikan majority itu.

        sekiranya orang melayu pula yang memindahkan majority nya pula macam mana?orang melayu dilembah kelang maseh ramai pulang mengundi dikampung asal mereka.

        harap cik helen dapat memberi pandangan dalam kontek negara malaysia dengan melihat reality politik semasa .

        Reply
  • 16. drinho  |  October 20, 2015 at 7:42 pm

    Helen,

    re: While the non-BN votes may be 52+ percent, the Pakatan votes are not 53 percent (ditokok-tambah) as they’ve been misleading the public.

    You are right. The votes obtained by 3rd parties were 1%+. PR (as known back then) ‘kebas’ these votes and added it together with their 51%+ to make it a total of PR 52% vs BN 48%.

    Consider the following facts:-

    1. Parliament has 222 seats. As per GE13 results, BN has 133 seats vs PR 89.
    2. As %, BN has 60% of seats despite winning only 48% votes. in contrast, PR has 40% of seats with 52% votes (assume non-BN votes).
    3. The above happened due to heavy weightage given to rural seats especially Sabah & Sarawak.

    My question:

    In your opinion, what is the % of votes needed by opposition parties in order to command a simple majority in Parliament (i.e. 50% seats plus 1)?

    Reply
    • 17. Helen Ang  |  October 21, 2015 at 1:57 am

      Ong Kian Ming or Wong Chin Huat would have already estimated the percentage needed.

      We’re not equal in terms of our two votes (KL-ites only have one). But that’s how the country was established.

      Reply
      • 18. drinho  |  October 21, 2015 at 9:08 am

        You are right. That is how we started. FT voters only vote once. No state representation. Rural constituencies have higher weightage than urban.

        But BN made these worse over time. Creating FT Labuan and FT Putrajaya. Remove the permissible difference between the smallest and largest constituency. Remove the power of the court to review electoral role. Redelineation was done in arbitrary manner. Gerrymander electoral constituency at its whim and fancies. Not to mention the removal of local government elections.

        I am not sure if OKM or WCH have given estimates. Personally I would say Opposition parties would need to secure maybe 60-65% of votes to win a simple majority. This is the ‘Mother of all gerrymandering’.

        Reply
  • 20. aku  |  October 21, 2015 at 7:51 am

    macam-macam boleh terjadi masa PRU14 nanti, jangan kita fikir yg the Oppo akan hanya dapat 89 kerusi sahaja..mereka memang ‘diam-diam ubi”. Strategi mereka adalah rahsia berbanding dengan BN, strategi? Nayhi..!

    Reply

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