A right-wing Najib is better for BN’s chances in GE14
Najib’s date with destiny is as a war general.
The fiasco that is Saifuddin Abdullah should be a chastening lesson for Najib Razak that ‘moderation’ backfires.
Saifuddin, in an interview two days ago with Oriental Daily News, said Najib is no longer the moderate and progressive leader that he once knew the latter to be.
According to Si Pudin, his ex-boss changed after being hit by the Chinese tsunami in GE13 which consequently resulted in Najib’s shift to the right. See also, ‘Saifuddin: “Moderate” no longer applicable to Najib‘ (Malaysiakini, 26 Oct 2015)
Note that the DAP’s Ubah has been most effective. The evangelical party’s relentless assault succeeded in changing Najib as well as freaking out Hadi Awang – see video of the PAS president’s impassioned ‘“Jangan langgar, ada batas kita!” speech at the 2014 muktamar.
BELOW: Najib erred in appointing Pudin to head GMM, a think-tank which itself is another gross mistake too
Moderation is wasted on deranged sheeple
The ‘moderation’ pitch by Najib is casting pearls before swine.
Saifuddin, the incumbent MP for Temerloh, was the face of moderation but he lost Umno the Parliament seat in GE13 whereas his right-wing party colleagues retained theirs with a bigger majority.
It’s quite pointless to make an appeal to ‘moderation’.
If the non-Malay electorate in the peninsula were capable of appreciating moderation, then the Chinese would not tilt more than 95 percent to the opposition (the ratio of 5:95 is extreme) while the Indians surely would not allow themselves be seduced by political Christianity. Such behavior signals that moderation is unable to find a place in their heart.
Forget ‘moderation’. From now on, BN must concentrate on Malay voters.
BELOW: DAP obtained 1,484,498 Chinese votes while BN obtained 3,261,493 Malay votes in GE13
Nak tahu kenapa DAP ligat menjaja Dyana dan Rara?
All the data cited pertains to GE13 stats.
Among the key elements to impact on GE14 will be our population curve. There are a lot of young Malays coming of age as I’ve mentioned in an earlier post recently.
Look at the line graph below showing the population census figures of 1970 and 2010.
Tengok pada garis merah. Hah! Tu orang Melayu. The birth rate and hence the upward spike – see red line – of the Malay population is phenomenal.
In comparison, the growth of the Chinese – see yellow line – has been flat. In 2013, the Chinese made up an estimated in 23.7 percent of the population.
Nonetheless, 29.7 percent of the Chinese community had registered themselves to vote in GE13. This disproportionate figure is significantly six percent above the Chinese population ratio.
Malay voters, on the under hand, were under registered and not commensurate with their population size.
There is a big cohort of Malays aged 10-14 and 15-19 years recorded in the 2010 census. These youths – see highlighted box below – would be new adults eligible to vote for the first time in the next general election.
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BN grassroots is rural
Leaving out Sabah and Sarawak from this discussion, let’s look at the 184 Parliament seats in the peninsula.
I’ve blogged previously on the BN’s reliance on rural seats – see diagram below.
According to Politweet’s analysis of Malay voters, BN won 83.5 percent of the rural seats. Politweet also estimated 70 percent of the Malay voters in PAS seats to be living in Kelantan and Terengganu.
Click to enlarge
In the peninsula, 66 of the Parliament seats held by BN are in the rural areas (blue bar) compared to only five BN urban constituencies (yellow bar). See Politweet’s bar graph below.
Click to enlarge
Below is how the Malay-majority Parliament seats in the peninsula are divided among the parties:
- Umno – 77
- PAS – 20
- PKR – 17
- DAP – none
DAP however won all the Chinese-majority seats. MCA sucked eggs.
PAS’s Malay base must not be under-estimated. While Umno is slipping and sliding, PAS is recouping and even announcing that it will field candidates in DAP areas. Should Umno combine with PAS, the supra Malay nationalist hook-up can easily send PKR-Amanah into oblivion!
The two pie charts below show that Malays mostly reside in the areas held by the BN while the Chinese largely reside in the areas held by the DAP. We’re as deeply polarized in our electoral space as we are in our schools.
Here are several facts you may already be aware but bears a recap anyway:
- Older Malay voters tend to favour BN
- BN received stronger support from Malay voters in GE13 compared to GE12
- This Malay shift is reflected in BN recapturing Kedah and Perak in 2013, both states which had fallen to Pakatan in 2008.
Politweet provided this interesting little nugget of info:
“Based on GE12 results, the predicted support for PR from the Malay electorate was not high at 32%. After GE13 support for PR dropped to 30%. It is worth noting that 59% of the Malay electorate are leaning BN but BN seats only represent 51% of the Malay electorate.” (See pie charts below comparing GE12 & GE13)
We can interpret this stats as Malay support for BN being stronger than reflected in the GE13 results. But this data relates to the scenario in 2013 … before Najib’s RM2.6 billion “donation” and 1MDB controversies exploded.
Politweet’s estimate on Malay voter slant towards BN, below.
As we know, the opposition made their tsunamic gains in GE13 on the back of the insanely high level of support from the Chinese.
The Malay swing to BN in response to the Chinese shift was much higher than most of us suspect.
According to Politweet’s estimates, DAP won its seats with some 35 percent (a great improvement from GE12) support from Malay voters under the age of 35. However BN won its seats with some 72 percent support from under-35 Malay voters.
BELOW: The greening of Terengganu
BN’s loss of Malay support in a few states
BN lost a whopping 12 percent Malay support in Johor, according to Politweet. This is reflected in the great gains made by DAP both in Parliament and the Johor DUN, and Umno losses at the same time in Gelang Patah and Batu Pahat, among others.
BN also lost seven percent Malay support in Malacca, and in light of this, Ali Rustam’s defeat in Bukit Katil shouldn’t be all that shocking.
BN lost 13 percent support in Terengganu and held on to the state by the slimmest of margins – see how the DUN stacked up, below.
BN’s significant gain of Malay support in a half a dozen states
What is more surprising though is the great gains made by BN (read: Umno) among Malays in the states where Pakatan had a huge presence.
This swing (increase in support compared to GE12) hints at how the Malays were creeped out by the open display of Chinese triumphalism, such as the mega rallies which peaked during the election campaign period.
BELOW: Overall support from Malays (source: Politweet)
|Leaning BN||Swing value|
|Kuala Lumpur||51%||(+ 17%)|
Note the support from Malays for BN in Selangor is at a steady 50 percent.
It is actually the tremendously unbalanced support (almost 90 percent) from the Chinese and Christians that kept the Pakatan/now Harapan gang in power in Selangor.
BELOW: The palatial home of DAP evangelista warlord David Nga Kor Ming in Ipoh
The mercurial silver state
Malays in Perak fought tooth and nail to retain their state in BN hands during the last election.
Umno won in the following semi-urban Perak DUN seats:
- Pangkor (69.8% Malay voters)
- Pasir Panjang (69.1% Malay)
- Manong (69.0% Malay)
- Manjoi (67.2% Malay)
- Bukit Chandan (66.8% Malay)
- Changkat Jong (62.3% Malay)
- Tualang Sekah (60.4% Malay)
- Hulu Kinta (60.0% Malay)
- Lintang (55.6% Malay)
MCA and Gerakan lost in the following Perak semi-urban DUN seats:
- Keranji was lost by MCA (75.6% Chinese voters)
- Sitiawan was lost by MCA (74.3% Chinese)
- Malim Nawar was lost by MCA (70.8% Chinese)
- Simpang Pulai was lost by MCA (63.7% Chinese)
- Jalong was lost by Gerakan (56.1% Chinese)
- Teja was lost by MCA (50.1% Chinese)
The inexorable march of demography
Malays are recovering control of the land through dominance by sheer population numbers.
Politweet pointed out that Serdang, Rasah, Kluang and Taiping have become mixed seats when in the past they were Chinese-majority Parliament seats.
Lumut has become a Malay-majority seat, added Politweet, noting that in earlier elections it was mixed. The Twitter research company also highlighted how Raub is now close to becoming a Malay-majority seat with 49.8 percent Malay voters.
“The shift is already taking place,” observed Politweet.
Impossible to reason with delusional people
Strategy-wise, the safest bet for BN is rely on a Malay tsunami.
This Malay backlash will definitely happen in GE14. The only question is whether it’s Umno that will be lashed and sent reeling, or whether Umno can be smart enough to ride on the Red Shirt momentum.
Weighing the various factors at play in the run-up to 2018, the most rational plan for Umno-BN is to embrace Ketuanan Melayu in the peninsula while working out a side deal with Borneo.
Najib should jettison his ‘moderation’ stance. It is a self-defeating (makan diri) approach bringing no positive returns.
After all, the Chinese emphatically rejected the BN chairman’s overtures and instead slapped him with a second tsunami (Bersih 4.0). With 95 percent Chinese being anti-government, the Chinese electorate is out of the BN calculus.
It is only the Melayu totok who can extend a talian hayat to Umno. If Najib does not grab the lifeline, then Putrajaya once lost can never be regained.
Bintang Lima – Smiling face, villainous heart