A right-wing Najib is better for BN’s chances in GE14

October 28, 2015 at 1:10 am 6 comments

Najib’s date with destiny is as a war general.

The fiasco that is Saifuddin Abdullah should be a chastening lesson for Najib Razak that ‘moderation’ backfires.

Saifuddin, in an interview two days ago with Oriental Daily News, said Najib is no longer the moderate and progressive leader that he once knew the latter to be.

According to Si Pudin, his ex-boss changed after being hit by the Chinese tsunami in GE13 which consequently resulted in Najib’s shift to the right. See also, ‘Saifuddin: “Moderate” no longer applicable to Najib‘ (Malaysiakini, 26 Oct 2015)

Note that the DAP’s Ubah has been most effective. The evangelical party’s relentless assault succeeded in changing Najib as well as freaking out Hadi Awang – see video of the PAS president’s impassioned ‘“Jangan langgar, ada batas kita!” speech at the 2014 muktamar.

BELOW: Najib erred in appointing Pudin to head GMM, a think-tank which itself is another gross mistake too

reject saifuddin GMM

Moderation is wasted on deranged sheeple

The ‘moderation’ pitch by Najib is casting pearls before swine.

Saifuddin, the incumbent MP for Temerloh, was the face of moderation but he lost Umno the Parliament seat in GE13 whereas his right-wing party colleagues retained theirs with a bigger majority.

It’s quite pointless to make an appeal to ‘moderation’.

If the non-Malay electorate in the peninsula were capable of appreciating moderation, then the Chinese would not tilt more than 95 percent to the opposition (the ratio of 5:95 is extreme) while the Indians surely would not allow themselves be seduced by political Christianity. Such behavior signals that moderation is unable to find a place in their heart.

Forget ‘moderation’. From now on, BN must concentrate on Malay voters.

BELOW: DAP obtained 1,484,498 Chinese votes while BN obtained 3,261,493 Malay votes in GE13

GE13 voters Umno BN Malays DAP Chinese

Nak tahu kenapa DAP ligat menjaja Dyana dan Rara?

All the data cited pertains to GE13 stats.

Among the key elements to impact on GE14 will be our population curve. There are a lot of young Malays coming of age as I’ve mentioned in an earlier post recently.

Look at the line graph below showing the population census figures of 1970 and 2010.

Tengok pada garis merah. Hah! Tu orang Melayu. The birth rate and hence the upward spike – see red line – of the Malay population is phenomenal.

In comparison, the growth of the Chinese – see yellow line – has been flat. In 2013, the Chinese made up an estimated in 23.7 percent of the population.

Nonetheless, 29.7 percent of the Chinese community had registered themselves to vote in GE13. This disproportionate figure is significantly six percent above the Chinese population ratio.

Malay voters, on the under hand, were under registered and not commensurate with their population size.

There is a big cohort of Malays aged 10-14 and 15-19 years recorded in the 2010 census. These youths – see highlighted box below – would be new adults eligible to vote for the first time in the next general election.

Click to enlarge

Malay population

Source: Adapted from Politweet

BN grassroots is rural

Leaving out Sabah and Sarawak from this discussion, let’s look at the 184 Parliament seats in the peninsula.

I’ve blogged previously on the BN’s reliance on rural seats – see diagram below.

According to Politweet’s analysis of Malay voters, BN won 83.5 percent of the rural seats. Politweet also estimated 70 percent of the Malay voters in PAS seats to be living in Kelantan and Terengganu.

Click to enlarge

2015 parliament rural urban

In the peninsula, 66 of the Parliament seats held by BN are in the rural areas (blue bar) compared to only five BN urban constituencies (yellow bar). See Politweet’s bar graph below.

Click to enlarge

total_seats urban rural BN

Below is how the Malay-majority Parliament seats in the peninsula are divided among the parties:

  • Umno  –  77
  • PAS  –  20
  • PKR  –  17
  • DAP  –  none

DAP however won all the Chinese-majority seats. MCA sucked eggs.

PAS’s Malay base must not be under-estimated. While Umno is slipping and sliding, PAS is recouping and even announcing that it will field candidates in DAP areas. Should Umno combine with PAS, the supra Malay nationalist hook-up can easily send PKR-Amanah into oblivion!

The two pie charts below show that Malays mostly reside in the areas held by the BN while the Chinese largely reside in the areas held by the DAP. We’re as deeply polarized in our electoral space as we are in our schools.

cina_reg_voters_by_winparty_pie

reg_voters_by_winparty_pie

Salient points

Here are several facts you may already be aware but bears a recap anyway:

  • Older Malay voters tend to favour BN
    .
  • BN received stronger support from Malay voters in GE13 compared to GE12
    .
  • This Malay shift is reflected in BN recapturing Kedah and Perak in 2013, both states which had fallen to Pakatan in 2008.

Politweet provided this interesting little nugget of info:

“Based on GE12 results, the predicted support for PR from the Malay electorate was not high at 32%. After GE13 support for PR dropped to 30%. It is worth noting that 59% of the Malay electorate are leaning BN but BN seats only represent 51% of the Malay electorate.” (See pie charts below comparing GE12 & GE13)

We can interpret this stats as Malay support for BN being stronger than reflected in the GE13 results. But this data relates to the scenario in 2013 … before Najib’s RM2.6 billion “donation” and 1MDB controversies exploded.

pen_est_support_malay xy

pen_est_support_malay x

Politweet’s estimate on Malay voter slant towards BN, below.

Leaning BN

Swing value

  • Rural

66%

(+ 4%)

  • Semi-Urban

57%

(+ 1%)

  • Urban

45%

(+ 1%)

As we know, the opposition made their tsunamic gains in GE13 on the back of the insanely high level of support from the Chinese.

The Malay swing to BN in response to the Chinese shift was much higher than most of us suspect.

According to Politweet’s estimates, DAP won its seats with some 35 percent (a great improvement from GE12) support from Malay voters under the age of 35. However BN won its seats with some 72 percent support from under-35 Malay voters.

BELOW: The greening of Terengganu

PRU13TerengganuMap2013

BN’s loss of Malay support in a few states

BN lost a whopping 12 percent Malay support in Johor, according to Politweet. This is reflected in the great gains made by DAP both in Parliament and the Johor DUN, and Umno losses at the same time in Gelang Patah and Batu Pahat, among others.

BN also lost seven percent Malay support in Malacca, and in light of this, Ali Rustam’s defeat in Bukit Katil shouldn’t be all that shocking.

BN lost 13 percent support in Terengganu and held on to the state by the slimmest of margins – see how the DUN stacked up, below.

BN’s significant gain of Malay support in a half a dozen states

What is more surprising though is the great gains made by BN (read: Umno) among Malays in the states where Pakatan had a huge presence.

This swing (increase in support compared to GE12) hints at how the Malays were creeped out by the open display of Chinese triumphalism, such as the mega rallies which peaked during the election campaign period.

BELOW: Overall support from Malays (source: Politweet)

Leaning BN Swing value
Kuala Lumpur 51% (+ 17%)
Kedah 57% (+ 15%)
Perak 68% (+ 11%)
Penang 48% (+ 6%)
Kelantan 34% (+ 6%)
Selangor 50% (+ 3%)

.
Note the support from Malays for BN in Selangor is at a steady 50 percent.

It is actually the tremendously unbalanced support (almost 90 percent) from the Chinese and Christians that kept the Pakatan/now Harapan gang in power in Selangor.

SelangorGE13UrbanRural


BELOW: The palatial home of DAP evangelista warlord David Nga Kor Ming in Ipoh

nga kor ming rumah

The mercurial silver state

Malays in Perak fought tooth and nail to retain their state in BN hands during the last election.

Umno won in the following semi-urban Perak DUN seats:

  • Pangkor (69.8% Malay voters)
  • Pasir Panjang (69.1% Malay)
  • Manong (69.0% Malay)
  • Manjoi (67.2% Malay)
  • Bukit Chandan (66.8% Malay)
  • Changkat Jong (62.3% Malay)
  • Tualang Sekah (60.4% Malay)
  • Hulu Kinta (60.0% Malay)
  • Lintang (55.6% Malay)

MCA and Gerakan lost in the following Perak semi-urban DUN seats:

  • Keranji was lost by MCA (75.6% Chinese voters)
  • Sitiawan was lost by MCA (74.3% Chinese)
  • Malim Nawar was lost by MCA (70.8% Chinese)
  • Simpang Pulai was lost by MCA (63.7% Chinese)
  • Jalong was lost by Gerakan (56.1% Chinese)
  • Teja was lost by MCA (50.1% Chinese)

straitstimes Our New Malaya

The inexorable march of demography

Malays are recovering control of the land through dominance by sheer population numbers.

Politweet pointed out that Serdang, Rasah, Kluang and Taiping have become mixed seats when in the past they were Chinese-majority Parliament seats.

Lumut has become a Malay-majority seat, added Politweet, noting that in earlier elections it was mixed. The Twitter research company also highlighted how Raub is now close to becoming a Malay-majority seat with 49.8 percent Malay voters.

“The shift is already taking place,” observed Politweet.

impossible

Impossible to reason with delusional people

Strategy-wise, the safest bet for BN is rely on a Malay tsunami.

This Malay backlash will definitely happen in GE14. The only question is whether it’s Umno that will be lashed and sent reeling, or whether Umno can be smart enough to ride on the Red Shirt momentum.

Weighing the various factors at play in the run-up to 2018, the most rational plan for Umno-BN is to embrace Ketuanan Melayu in the peninsula while working out a side deal with Borneo.

Najib should jettison his ‘moderation’ stance. It is a self-defeating (makan diri) approach bringing no positive returns.

After all, the Chinese emphatically rejected the BN chairman’s overtures and instead slapped him with a second tsunami (Bersih 4.0). With 95 percent Chinese being anti-government, the Chinese electorate is out of the BN calculus.

It is only the Melayu totok who can extend a talian hayat to Umno. If Najib does not grab the lifeline, then Putrajaya once lost can never be regained.

Reference resourcehttps://politweet.wordpress.com/2015/07/27/analysing-pakatan-rakyats-performance-with-malay-voters-in-peninsular-malaysia-ge13/


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Entry filed under: Dosa Umno, Still clueless?. Tags: .

The pair of Beluders oughta read Zam and reply KJ The mills of God and Ustaz Nasha

6 Comments Add your own

  • 1. AJK Masjid Tanah  |  October 28, 2015 at 5:02 am

    Let’s be honest. I think the Indians vote is also gone to the opposition nowadays.
    2/3 of Indians population is in Penang, KL & Selangor. Last GE13, estimated 60-70 rural Indian votes, 70-80 urban Indian votes went to PR.

    DAP today has more Indians MPs & ADUNs compared to MIC…
    DAP – 6 MPs, 14 Aduns
    MIC – 4 MPs, 5 Aduns
    PKR – 3 MPs, 5 Aduns

    ~ AJK Masjid Tanah

    Reply
  • 2. Melayu Malaysia  |  October 28, 2015 at 7:18 am

    Ms Helen,

    You should be in UMNO/BN think tank. Wait, in the first place do they even have a think-tank? There may be, with fanciful names and war cry but…. limp, lifeless and non-deserving wannabes running the show.

    They chose what they want to be, who to run it and their choice reflects on how poorly coordinated UMNO/BN was and the lack of thoughts and grey matter.

    Everyone outside, just like a football game, saw it, noticed it and warned the players but….pointless and hopeless. Worse, their researchers are probably some highly paid CONs. In for the money but not the service.

    They often miss the pulse, the heart beat and coming from watered down filtered info and found it nothing more than bullshit. Often misled.

    There is still hope for UMNO and BN if people like the ex Temerloh MP is out of the system.

    At any rate, good luck to UMNO / BN…just don’t field a losing candidate in my hometown…

    PAS, standby for duty. Masa untuk Islam dan Melayu bersatu

    Reply
    • 3. Shamshul anuar  |  October 28, 2015 at 11:21 am

      Helen,

      Everybody who is concern about UMNO is saying it. UMNO bahagian leaders said that too for many times. Those who are concern that Malays should hold political power have been saying that Najib should concentrate on the very group that defends his government; the Malays.

      Yet Najib still acts as if his government survival depending on Chinese votes. He rewarded Chinese with Ministerial posts. not many are aware that while he discarded Muhyiddin as DPM, he too rewarded MCA with extra Ministerial and Deputy ministerial post.

      Najib contested in Pekan, a constituents that holds Tun Razak as iconic figure. Khairi contested in Rembau, a Malay constituents. Nazri in Padang Rengas. Yet when they won, they seem to underestimate the malays.

      Nazri wants visa to be abolished for Chinese tourists, That is a great concern among Malays, immigration officers. Khairi could not even appoint a Pemuda UMNO as his Political secretary. He prefers Regina whom political loyalty to UMNO is zero.

      Najib lectured that Chinese are not “pendatang” Yet he chose not to tell Chinese why they are referred as “pendatang”.

      they(UMNO) forgets that Malays choose UMNO not out of love totally. but rather Malays simply do not have choice then. But with exodus of “CLOWNS” from PAS, this religious based party(PAS) finally looks “credible, appealing” to say the least.

      Instead of whacking Tun, why not Najib spend time to order his army to attack Rafizi. There are many issues such as “hutang Negara”.

      Not many are aware the total of RM700 billion described as Hutang Malaysia is NOT TOTALLY LOAN BY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT,

      But there is total silence from Putrajaya. I told many of my friends. They were speechless.

      “You mean to say the figure includes all loans made by private sectors too?’

      WE DID NOT KNOW THAT. that was the usual response.

      JADI JAWAB LE.

      Reply
      • 4. Helen Ang  |  October 28, 2015 at 11:51 am

        Shamshul,

        re: “saying that Najib should concentrate on the very group that defends his government; the Malays”

        Haven’t you noticed that the reshuffled Cabinet is more right wing? Also Najib did not rebuke Ismail Sabri and Tajuddin Abdul Rahman for their comments that angered the Chinese.

        re: “Yet Najib still acts as if his government survival depending on Chinese votes.”

        He’s just paying lip service and going through the motions.

        re: “He rewarded Chinese with Ministerial posts.”

        Tun’s idea. Do you recall my open letter to Dr M on 23 March 2014? I wrote: “Dear Tun,

        “My heart sank when I heard your call for Malaysians to welcome the MCA’s decision to rejoin the cabinet.”

        https://helenang.wordpress.com/2014/03/23/open-letter-to-dr-mahathir/

        re: “not many are aware that while he discarded Muhyiddin as DPM, he too rewarded MCA with extra Ministerial and Deputy ministerial post”

        The ‘No Confidence’ motion was coming up. Najib needed to secure the votes of the MCA reps in the House. In the post-GE14 Parliament, Umno should no longer allow itself to be held to ransom by the YBs from MCA holding their position courtesy of the Malay electorate.

        re: “Yet when they won, they seem to underestimate the Malays.”

        Betul. Nantilah, Melayu akan bangkit. When that happens, it’s up to Umno to climb on the bandwagon or be left by the wayside.

        re: “Nazri wants visa to be abolished for Chinese tourists. That is a great concern among Malays, immigration officers. Khairi could not even appoint a Pemuda UMNO as his Political secretary. He prefers Regina whom political loyalty to UMNO is zero.”

        Khairy should be taken down. How do you know that the thought has not crossed Najib’s mind?

        re: “Najib lectured that Chinese are not ‘pendatang’. Yet he chose not to tell Chinese why they are referred as ‘pendatang’.”

        If anyone of the Umno leaders were to say the ‘P’ word in the near future, Najib may just buat tak tau.

        re: “But with exodus of ‘CLOWNS’ from PAS, this religious based party(PAS) finally looks ‘credible, appealing’ to say the least.”

        Do you support the ‘unity’ idea?

        re: “Instead of whacking Tun, why not Najib spend time to order his army to attack Rafizi.”

        Tun is a mortal threat. The ceria boy is not.

        re: “There are many issues such as ‘hutang Negara’. Not many are aware the total of RM700 billion described as Hutang Malaysia is NOT TOTALLY LOAN BY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. But there is total silence from Putrajaya. I told many of my friends. They were speechless. You mean to say the figure includes all loans made by private sectors too?’ WE DID NOT KNOW THAT. That was the usual response. JADI JAWAB LE.”

        Please compose an appeal to the two Beluders that they must be more prihatin in tackling this kind of strategic communications. I’ll publish your open letter. ,)

        null

        Reply
        • 5. Shamshul anuar  |  October 28, 2015 at 3:24 pm

          Helen,

          Thanks for the reply.

          UMNO does not have the luxury of time. The party is under siege. DEspite many wishing it to be dead and buried in last election, UMNO did quite well. It managed to hold to power. In fact, it increases its representation in the august parliament.

          Not bad for a political party that is accused as being “corrupt, too aristocratic and not to forget being “too assabiyah (meaning talking about Malay aspirations”.

          But the equation has changed. The clowns are largely booted out from PAS. Now PAS looks quite credible and really a worthy opponent.

          And 1MDB has been blown out to the point that many think UMNO will simply collapse comes next election. And UMNO has an ex No 2 (MUhyiddin) who is not “friendly” anymore to UMNO.

          Actually there is no need for Najib to be leaning to right or to the left, Just do the right thing. Meaning use common sense. I am more than happy if Najib can send the right signal.

          Right signal? Reply to the accusation point by point. there are many issues that are manipulated that make Najib, UMNO look bad. Issues such “hutang Negara, Private jet for VVIP, biometric for election, Toll agreement, VISA requirement to Chinese tourists, illegal immigrants that are testing out patience to the limit” and many more.

          EXample on Hutang Malaysia. Please forward my suggestion to MP Kota Belud. Ask him to initiate explanation on prime time the definition of Hutang Negara.

          As per your request, I would compose a letter to Rahman and I appreciate your help in publishing it.

          Reply
          • 6. Helen Ang  |  October 28, 2015 at 3:31 pm

            okay

            Reply

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