Election 2018: How DAP Chinese vs Umno Malay voters stack up statistically

February 4, 2016 at 8:25 pm 50 comments

Regular commenter ‘drinho’ commented @ 2016/02/03 at 9:11 am,

“I can agree if you say DAP is the dominant party in [Pakatan Harapan] and able to dictate terms especially PAS is no longer in the equation. DAP is indeed powerful in PH states like Penang and Selangor.

“But to say that DAP can control Parliament/Putrajaya is too far fetch[ed]. Stop selling the story ‘DAP will takeover Putrajaya’. Numerically, it is impossible for GE14.”

BELOW: DAP mega rally in Johor running up to GE13

JohorMalaysiakini

Malay votes fragmented, Chinese votes one solid block

I disagree with ‘drinho’ that it is numerically impossible, for the simple reason that Malay votes are split into many different kabilah (loyalties) while the Chinese votes are solidly 95 percent behind the DAP.

But anyway, let’s do the math.

To rebut ‘drinho’, I shall now try to estimate the relative numerical strength of DAP vs Umno-Najib support. Please follow me patiently step-by-step as I take you through the figures.

As everyone knows, each party draws on the second biggest, i.e. Chinese and the biggest, i.e. Malay ethnic group respectively.

Below is the population projection for the year 2020 (Note: Our national census is held once every 10 years, and the last one was conducted in 2010).

Population projection 2020

Population of 32.4 million in year 2020

GE14 is expected to be held in 2018, which is a mere two years away from 2020, and thus the decennial population projection (year 2020) is a good one for us to use.

The Department of Statistics has projected that our population in 2020 will consist of 16,717,700 Malays and 6,827,100 Chinese.

A big chunk of the Malay population is young. Please do remember, those under 21 are not eligible to vote and so, although the Malay population is big, many Malay youths will not be of voting age as yet.

KiddyEmoticons

Chinese couples, on the other hand, have fewer kids and thus there are fewer Chinese babies.

In the current electoral setting, however, this is not a disadvantage as anyone under-21 can’t vote in GE14 anyway.

In fact for year 2018, the Chinese even have an edge – going by ratio – over the Malays. This is because the older Chinese population (see graph below), i.e. those in their 50s, 60s and 70s can all go out to vote compared to Malay toddlers, tweens and teens who can’t.

Malay population 2020

Chinese population 2020

Malay and Chinese have different population shape

Differences in Malay and Chinese demographic pattern can be seen at a glance by the shape or bulge of the two charts above.

GREEN: There are a lot of Malay babies (ages 0-4, 5-9) and fewer Malay oldies or octogenarians (people in their 80s).

YELLOW: The Chinese have fewer babies but relatively more sexagenarians (people in their 60s) and septuagenarians (people in their 70s).

What the charts above tell us is that the Chinese population bulge is greyer/older and therefore in RELATIVE terms, ‘more’ Chinese among the population are eligible to vote, compared to Malays in the same age cohort.

In the distant future, say year 2030, the Chinese will be at an electoral disadvantage due to their shrinking birth rate. Nonetheless, for the immediate present, i.e. year 2018, the Chinese low fertility is yet to impact all that much.

BELOW: Mega rally in Han Chiang, Penang running up to GE13

HanChiangL2

Malays under-registered as voters, Chinese over-registered

In year 2018, there will be an estimated 9,030,900 Malays aged 22 and above. The number of Chinese aged 22 and above is estimated at 4,566,100.

In short, come GE14, there will be 9.0 million Malays and 4.6 million Chinese who are of voting age.

But we must remember that the “ini kalilah” Chinese are over-registered, whereas the tidak apa Malays are under-registered, as voters.

In GE13, the electorate comprised:

  • 52.63% Malay voters
  • 29.68% Chinese voters, and others

In 2010, our country’s 28.9 million population comprised:

  • 55.07% Malay
  • 24.34% Chinese, and others
Note: The Stats Dept has not made public the percentage of Malays in the population in 2013, which is the GE13 election year. Instead, the percentage for Malays in 2013 had been conflated within a broad ‘Bumiputera’ population category. Hence to get the percentage of Malays as standalone (and not ‘Bumiputera’), we are required to refer detailed breakdown available only for 2010, which is the decennial census year.
.

Subtracting the two sets of figures above, we see that the Malays are under-registered as voters by 2.44 percent while the Chinese are over-registered as voters by 5.34 percent in ratio to their respective population sizes.

BELOW: Our voting population in GE14

2018 voters

Tidak apa voters 52.6%, ini kali lah voters 29.7%

Next, the estimated number of Malaysians who will be of voting age in 2018:

  • Malays: 9,030,900
  • Other Bumiputera: 2,084,900
  • Chinese: 4,566,100
  • Indians: 1,309,300
  • Lain-lain: 130,700
  • Non citizens

Adding up the various ethnic categories above, there will be about 17,121,900 Malaysians who are of voting age.

The tidak apa Melayus are under-registered as voters whereas the rajin DAP people have been actively registering Chinese to vote, and not to mention strategically transferring their addresses (as alleged by the rival political parties).

Borrowing from the ratio in GE13, it’s probable that out of the 17.1 million Malaysians eligible to vote (age-wise), 52.63 percent of the voters will be Malay and 29.68 percent will be Chinese.

BELOW: Friendly ties before the bust-up

Tun_Mahathir_Tun_Abdullah_Badawi_Najib_Razak

Our friend ‘drinho’ has kindly hammered home the point on how divided the Malays are.

He remarked @ 2016/02/02 at 9:05 am,

The 9 million Malay votes are split:

  1. Umno — Najib camp
  2. Umno — Tun M & rebels camp
  3. PKR
  4. PAS — Hadi camp (pro unity with Umno)
  5. PAS — non-Hadi camp (anti UG with Umno)
  6. Dan lain-lain — Amanah, Perkasa, Isma, fence-sitters, etc

If we divide the support of the nine million-strong Malay electorate (note: this is assuming perfect 100 percent voter registration) into six equal parts as above, Umno-BN under Najib will only be getting 1,501,876 votes.

Well, perhaps dividing into six equal parts is too much of a rough cut. So I shall attempt to fine-tune the division somewhat.

In GE13, Umno received altogether 3,252,484 votes, PKR 2,254,328 and PAS 1,633,389.

Okay, so instead of dividing the Malay votes into six equal parts according to the ‘drinho’-inspired formula, let’s scale down and divide the Malay voter cake into only three slices. And Umno gets the biggest segment, in keeping with the ratio of electoral support shown in GE13.

The support level between/among the three parties:

  • Umno — 45.6 percent
  • PKR — 31.6 percent
  • PAS — 22.9 percent

Umno is the strongest among the three Malay-based parties.

Their vote bank in the last election was likely:

  • Umno: Malay plus a sprinkling of Indians and Sabah natives
  • PKR: Malay and fairly strong Chinese+Indian support
  • PAS: Predominantly Malay with some Chinese+Indian support

Melayu selfie

If we give Umno 45.6 percent of the eligible 9,011,256 Malay voters, it’s possible that Umno will be able to obtain 4,109,133 votes.

Or alternatively let’s be kind, increase and give Umno a lofty 55 percent of the nine million Malay votes but subtract 20 percent from the Umno tally as being lost due to the Tun-Muhyiddin-Mukhriz, etc and Najib’s unpopularity factors.

With 55 percent support, Umno will get 4,956,191 Malay votes. But we’re taking away 20 percent from this figure as bleeding by the supporters of Tun et al (abstentions, i.e. staying at home on polling day or protest votes, i.e. undi rosak or horror! switching to the opposition).

This leaves Umno with 3,964,953 Malay votes.

chinese girl clap

The 4.6 million Chinese votes are split:

  1. DAP
  2. Anti-DAP

With DAP retaining 95 percent support from the Chinese, the party will get 4,337,795 Chinese votes.

And we mustn’t forget one variable on polling day itself, which is the super high turnout by the Chinese and the low turnout or boycott by the Malays.

Umno’s best case scenario comes up to 3.96 million Malay votes vs DAP’s almost guaranteed 4.34 million Chinese votes. We’re working on the assumption that roughly only half the Malays support Umno while more than 9 out of 10 Chinese support the DAP.

The above is merely one hypothetical scenario and it’s still a distance (two years) to D-Day.

PAS is the game changer and kingmaker. Parti Islam swaying one way or the other will definitely shift the dynamics and throw the guesstimates above off kilter.


 

A gentle reminder to PAS:

You folks had better pantau how far the Chinese are achieving perpaduan with the native Christians. And then crunch the numbers carefully, ya.

walking cat

Additional note (Updated 9.38 pm)

I did the above as a research exercise in response to the challenge by ‘drinho’. It’s done on the basis of popular vote — one man, one ethnic headcount.

The real situation on the ground is complicated and not as straightforward as simply counting beans.

Due to rural weightage, Borneo advantage and outliers like Putrajaya having only 15,791 voters compared to Teresa Kok’s gargantuan Seputeh (85,976 voters) and anomalies like tiny Labuan serving as one Federal Territory seat, the 95 percent unified strength of the Chinese is still diluted.

Thus, the DAP will have to up its ante on its trademark Politics of Hate. This time, the DAP will need to go all out to make the Malays hate you-know-who to weaken you-know-which party in order to beat the system.

 

 

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Mukhriz, langgar adab and the Melayu’s weak spot Jahat betul orang yang main cakap ikut suka tentang Tabung Haji

50 Comments Add your own

  • 1. An Ordinary Malaysian  |  February 4, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    Helen,

    This is the Helen Ang I know.

    An interestingly analytical article backed up with facts from reputable sources.

    There is only one small problem with it.

    It is not how many votes the Chinese have or how many votes the Malays have.

    It is how many seats in the Dewan Rakyat which counts.

    By your own reckoning, DAP has only about 38 seats and through some nefarious means, can control another 7 or 8 more.

    I would be willing to bet that the majority of those 4.5million plus Chinese votes will be found in the DAP seats.

    For example, what would the increase of Chinese votes be in, say, Putrajaya, or in some remote up-river seat in Sabah or Sarawak?

    Answer? Negligible :)

    On the subject of PAS.

    Actually, I see PAS as a liability to BN.

    Again, I would be willing to bet that most of the 43 Malaysians in Syria, awaiting their turn to go to Paradise would have had been PAS supporters.

    If PAS was so attractive to the electorate, they would have done much better in PRU13, right?

    Correct me if I am wrong but I think you have said yourself that some of the PRU13 PAS seats came via Chinese votes.

    I have a feeling that Najib knows that PAS is a liability but he is willing to cosy up to PAS to off-set the Tun factor.

    PAS is already feeling very pleased that they are now BFF with UMNO and I recall reading somewhere that PAS considers itself to be spiritual advisers to UMNO.

    The struggle for power and control has already begun between PAS and UMNO.

    Will the PAS-UMNO collaboration work? To be honest, I don’t know.

    Only by waiting until 2018 will I know :)

    Reply
  • 2. HY  |  February 4, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    95% chinese vote for pakatan, not dap.

    Reply
    • 3. Helen Ang  |  February 4, 2016 at 10:49 pm

      The Chinese vote for PAS in 2013 was a reflection of support for DAP.

      Now that the unholy matrimony between the political Islam and political Christianity parties is on the rocks, PAS stated that it will contest in some DAP areas.

      Likewise DAP has also sounded the war drum to mount a challenge in PAS areas, probably using DAP Malay candidates although Amanah has begged that it should be given the seats.

      With this development, DAP will definitely be contesting more seats next election than they did in the last.

      And so the Chinese who previously did not have the option to pangkah Roket (because there was no DAP candidate in their area) will have a greater chance to do so in GE14.

      The percentage of Chinese support for DAP (on its own) will be high.

      It’s also likely that the popular for BN will drop some more, unless the prayed for collaboration with PAS materializes.

      Reply
      • 4. What Is This  |  February 5, 2016 at 11:32 am

        As we get closer to 2018 the DAP will whip the Chinese into another hysteria. 95% ? It will be much higher considering that they are now registering new voters.

        Reply
  • 5. abdul rahman noor  |  February 4, 2016 at 10:40 pm

    good analysis. however ours is a parliamentary system as compared to a presidential one where numbers r crucial.

    that was how umno-bn still managed 2 retain putrajaya despite losing d popular vote.

    granted that almost a big chunk of d non bumis/Chinese votes will go to DAP but it wld still b difficult 4 them 2 prevail independently 4 their forte is in d urban areas where their margins of victories can b by d tens of thousands. however it is quite meaningless.
    seats delineation still favour d rural areas which happens 2 b populated by malays n bumis.( d election commission wth their gerrymandering skills will make sure of that 4 purposes of development n budget distribution so it seems)

    I agree wth u that it looks like PAS will play d king maker role bcos Harapan is still void of mass support n Pkr has lost its lustre. they may even lose d MB seat 2 Dap.

    UMNO has got 2 do a lot of soul searching from now on. they can either insist on d present leadership line up n face d consequences of relinquishing power or at best suffer d inevitable pain of sharing power wth other pol parties including DAP.

    I sincerely hope that investigations being undertaken by various international institutions/governments wld indirectly bring abt automatic recalibration in UMNO. however time is running out.

    demi ‘malaysia ku’ kpd Allah swt kita berserah.

    Reply
  • 6. kampong lad  |  February 4, 2016 at 11:09 pm

    1. pengundi sabah & sarawak hanya 15% tapi kontrol 25% kerusi parlimen. selagi parti2 komponen bn di borneo terutamanya sarawak tidak berpaling tadah, bila umno/bn boleh kalah.

    2. bertambahnya bilangan pengundi cina bukan masalah. contoh; tesesa kok boleh menang dgn majoriti yg lebih besar tapi masih 1 kerusi.

    3.’not to mention strategically transferring their addresses (as alleged by the rival political parties)’

    berpindah ke kawasan majoriri melayu ka atau borneo?

    Reply
    • 7. Helen Ang  |  February 4, 2016 at 11:46 pm

      re: “pengundi sabah & sarawak hanya 15%”

      Mereka duduk di pedalaman dan tidak mendaftar untuk mengundi.

      Fakta menarik, Sabah mempunyai lebih ramai penduduk berbanding Sarawak tetapi Sarawak lah yang mempunyai jumlah pemilih yang lebih ramai. Orang Sabah takde IC, kot.

      Jumlah penduduk tahun 2015

      Sabah – 3,736,200
      Sarawak – 2,707,600
      Malaysia – 30,995,700

      Penduduk Sabah & Sarawak 20.8 peratus daripada penduduk Malaysia.

      Jumlah pengundi tahun 2013

      Sabah – 984,034
      Sarawak – 1,063,740
      Malaysia – 13,268,002

      Pengundi Sabah & Sarawak 15.4 peratus daripada pengundi Malaysia.

      re: “tapi kontrol 25% kerusi parlimen”

      Itupun DAP tidak puas hati dan membantah. DAP mahukan “One man, one vote, one value”.

      Kalau ikut rumusan DAP, maka peratusan kerusi Parlimen Sabah dan Sarawak akan jatuh ke 20 peratus sahaja, mengikut nisbah jumlah penduduk.

      re: “selagi parti2 komponen bn di borneo terutamanya sarawak tidak berpaling tadah, bila umno/bn boleh kalah.”

      Evangelis DAP kuat menghasut orang Kristian pribumi.

      re: “bertambahnya bilangan pengundi cina bukan masalah. contoh; tesesa kok boleh menang dgn majoriti yg lebih besar tapi masih 1 kerusi.”

      She can spare at least 50,000 supporters and still get a majority of 1,552.

      re: “berpindah ke kawasan majoriri melayu ka atau borneo?”

      Johor!

      Reply
      • 8. kampong lad  |  February 5, 2016 at 10:38 am

        johor ye….ini bermakna depa bersedia jadi bangsa johor & johor ada sultan wor. mungkin lepas setiap pru, tukar balik alamat.

        Reply
        • 9. Helen Ang  |  February 5, 2016 at 10:46 am

          Johor got vulnerable Parliament seats.

          – MCA won Labis with 353-vote majority

          – Umno won Pasir Gudang on 935

          – MCA won Tebrau on 1,767

          Reply
          • 10. jentayu  |  February 5, 2016 at 12:51 pm

            i think the next election will see the rise of Kerajaan Campuran. and so it’s up to UMNO/BN and DAP/PKR/PAN who holds the biggest share in terms of seat. I don’t think either of these coalition can control upto 51% of the seats in Dewan Rakyat. so regardless which party has a bigger share of seat, it’s is still not sufficient to form a government. PAS will be the decisive maker. to rujuk back with dapsters who have been backstabbing them repeatedly or join UMNO/BN who seems lethargic, full of feud and dwindling in support.

            Reply
  • 11. albert  |  February 5, 2016 at 1:42 pm

    In this posting you set up your objective to rebut drinho’s statement; after reading the whole posting I don’t think your objective was achieved. Is there a part 2 or more updates?

    Reply
    • 12. drinho  |  February 12, 2016 at 1:54 pm

      Being the person that initiated Helen to start this posting, I am equally disappointed. She didn’t address my questions directly.

      I am talking on the no. of Parliament seats vis-a-vis both political divides. She is talking on the no. of absolute votes.

      Reply
      • 13. Helen Ang  |  February 12, 2016 at 3:11 pm

        You can go to this website, http://undi.info/

        Click on the menu ‘Parliament Analysis Tool’ @ http://undi.info/2013p/

        It features a ‘Vote Swing’ simulator. What Albert has done on spreadsheet is developed into a software here. Just input your percentages to identify the vulnerable seats.

        Reply
  • 14. drinho  |  February 5, 2016 at 7:06 pm

    Wow Helen,

    Didn’t expect you to dedicate a posting for my short comments. Many thanks.

    re: Umno’s best case scenario comes up to 3.96 million Malay votes vs DAP’s almost guaranteed 4.34 million Chinese votes. We’re working on the assumption that roughly only half the Malays support Umno while more than 9 out of 10 Chinese support the DAP.

    1. I agree with your assumption above.

    2. Why you analyze based on the population count of Malay vs Chinese population (and their respective eligible voters)?

    3. Will 3.96 million Malay votes for Umno result in Umno having less Parliament seats than DAP (which has 4.34 million Chinese votes)?

    re: “But to say that DAP can control Parliament/Putrajaya is too far fetch[ed]. Stop selling the story ‘DAP will takeover Putrajaya’. Numerically, it is impossible for GE14.”

    1. My statement of “DAP will takeover Putrajaya” is made in the context of no. of MP seats that DAP will have in order to takeover Putrajaya.

    2. Whereas your analysis is based on the no. of absolute votes that Umno and DAP will get respectively.

    3. Now that you have an estimate on the no. of votes Umno and DAP will get respectively, can you translate them into the no. of Parliament seats that both will win eventually in the upcoming GE 14?

    4. From there, we will know whether DAP can really takeover Putrajaya based on the number of Parliament seats.

    Reply
    • 15. Helen Ang  |  February 5, 2016 at 7:37 pm

      re: “Why you analyze based on the population count of Malay vs Chinese population (and their respective eligible voters)?”

      The Stats Dept projects population figures into the future. The Election Commission does not. It’s something tangible to start with.

      I was myself curious and just exploring how the 95 percent Chinese and fragmented Malays stood in relation to each other in terms of actual headcount. My curiosity of course has to do with the Tun factor and Najib under fire, and wondering on the degree of impact.

      re: “Will 3.96 million Malay votes for Umno result in Umno having less Parliament seats than DAP (which has 4.34 million Chinese votes)?”

      There are other variables like Chinese over-registered and Malays under-registered as voters. Also urban easier to be registered than rural – take compact Penang vs vast Sarawak.

      And then turnout on polling day. Recall the great gap in turnout between Round One and Round Two of the recent French elections where those freaked out by the National Front and Marine Le Pen’s initial lead came out in droves to vote.

      re: “My statement of ‘DAP will takeover Putrajaya’ is made in the context of no. of MP seats that DAP will have in order to takeover Putrajaya.”

      At the moment on Chinese votes alone, obviously cannot lah.

      If the DAP Malay arm grows stronger, then they progress. Step 1: A DAP Malay becomes the next S’gor MB.

      re: “Whereas your analysis is based on the no. of absolute votes that Umno and DAP will get respectively.”

      This will be reflected in the popular vote. Dah lah BN kalah popular vote di PRU13. Kat PRU14 nanti, dijangka sokongan akan lagi berkurangan.

      re: “Now that you have an estimate on the no. of votes Umno and DAP will get respectively, can you translate them into the no. of Parliament seats that both will win eventually in the upcoming GE 14?”

      Nope. It needs a lot of close work and can’t tell until we get closer to the big day. But the absolute numbers provide the parameters, or to use a metaphor – at least we know the maximum size of the canvas, and the painting cannot be bigger than say 4ft x 6ft.

      re: “From there, we will know whether DAP can really takeover Putrajaya based on the number of Parliament seats.”

      Methinks we can both agree that the determining element will be the economy, as in Clinton’s famous quote.

      DAP’s strategy will be to ramp up the hate and attack Najib relentlessly to make the Melayus menyampah dan meluat.

      As they are already doing now with their chameleon cytros here and there wheedling for the public to give oppo one shot at Putrajaya (try them out just once, they plead, if don’t like can easily change gomen again after 5 years).

      I don’t know if you’re a Chinese, but there can only be a terrible backlash should DAP continue on its present trajectory. Never ever forget Newton’s Third Law of Motion.

      Reply
      • 16. drinho  |  February 11, 2016 at 9:17 am

        re: At the moment on Chinese votes alone, obviously cannot lah.

        There you have it. You have effectively contradicted your own findings.

        In our electoral system, it is the number of seats in Dewan Rakyat that counts. Not the number of votes that a party receives. A party may receive more votes than the other, yet it may end up with lesser seats than the latter.

        Reply
        • 17. Helen Ang  |  February 11, 2016 at 10:45 am

          re: “You have effectively contradicted your own findings.”

          I should think that the DAP’s popular vote – particularly if the evangelical party fields more Malay candidates as well as contests in Malay areas it has never ventured before (such as the PAS areas that DAP has declared it will challenge) – will start catching up with Umno.

          Conclusion:

          (a) DAP’s 95 percent Chinese is catching up to Umno’s (say, 40-45 percent) Malay support in terms of absolute headcount

          (b) Oppo will likely repeat its win of ‘popular vote’ in GE14 same as GE13

          (c) Once DAP starts fielding Malay candidates in PAS areas (and not to mention its current Dayak push into rural Sarawak), the evangelical party will further catch up with Umno in popular vote — which as you’ve pointed out, doesn’t not necessarily translate into winning seats

          (a) and (c) underscore that we’ve become a two-party democracy — DAP vs Umno

          Reply
          • 18. drinho  |  February 11, 2016 at 1:25 pm

            re: (a) & (b)

            Again, my question:-

            Will they translate into more parliament seats for DAP and/or PH in order to win Putrajaya?

            re: (c)

            As per Teluk Intan by election, I don’t think DAP will gamble with its incumbent Parliament seats anymore. Perhaps Malay candidates will be fielded at state seats.

            Moreover, DAP will face 3 corner fights in some mixed seats as PAS will now join in the fray. Similarly, Amanah will contest in certain PAS seats and create a 3 corner fights. Except for PKR, PAS/Amanah/DAP will suffer losses in seats that have 3 candidates.

            I am betting for GE14, BN will increase its seat count and the Oppo parties (PH and PAS) will collectively suffer a decrease due to 3 corner fights.

            Reply
            • 19. Helen Ang  |  February 11, 2016 at 5:38 pm

              re: “Will they translate into more parliament seats for DAP and/or PH in order to win Putrajaya?”

              It depends on how much Malay support Umno is going to lose, including the votes of the Protuns. How great the swing away from Umno correlates to how successful the DAP is at fanning hatred against Najib.

              re: “As per Teluk Intan by election, I don’t think DAP will gamble with its incumbent Parliament seats anymore.”

              They will muscle in on the mixed seats with their Malay candidates.

              re: “PAS/Amanah/DAP will suffer losses in seats that have 3 candidates.”

              There are various possible permutations. Best case scenario: Umno-BN or PAS have a pact and give way to each other, i.e. the Malay unity formula. Or PAS face-off MCA. Or MCA throw the game in order for DAP to win (Chinese unity formula).

              re: “I am betting for GE14, BN will increase its seat count and the Oppo parties (PH and PAS) will collectively suffer a decrease due to 3 corner fights.”

              What you say above is possible.

              Another possibility is that in a one-on-one between PAS and Umno, PAS may be able to snatch away some seats from Umno due to internal sabotage, i.e. Protuns making Malays hate Najib and Umno. After all, Tun has his loyalists in almost all the branches of government.

              Reply
              • 20. drinho  |  February 11, 2016 at 8:42 pm

                re: What you say above is possible.

                It is hard to predict the no. of seats that will be won by both sides of the divide. Let me ask you a simple question (based on trend):

                Based on the number of current seats held by BN and PH & Pas (collectively Oppo parties), what is your prediction for the upcoming GE?

                a) both retain the same number of seats respectively;
                b) BN will increase its seat count & Oppo parties decrease;
                c) BN will suffer decrease and Oppo parties will increase.

                For the record, I am predicting (b). You?

                Reply
                • 21. Helen Ang  |  February 11, 2016 at 9:10 pm

                  Too early to tell, and a week is a lifetime in politics.

                  But one thing I’m quite certain, PAS is the king maker and game changer.

                  Another factor which was not present in previous elections – the Dapsters are fanning hatred for the PM (and his wife) to the verge of hysteria.

                  The hostile oppo public should remember, we now have the National Security Act and the PM can impose restricted emergency. Tun says the NSC is more drastic than ISA.

                  Reply
                  • 22. drinho  |  February 12, 2016 at 2:03 pm

                    re: Too early to tell, and a week is a lifetime in politics.

                    No matter how early, there must be some slightest hunch/hint on your part right? Don’t worry as I will not ask for your empirical findings to support your prediction. No need to write a long article like in this posting.

                    Reply
                    • 23. Helen Ang  |  February 12, 2016 at 9:52 pm

                      drinho,

                      If we project a hypothetical two percent swing by Malay voters, as suggested by Albert, then 10 federal seats will change hands, based on the GE13 voting trend.

                      BN will lose the following Parliament seats:

                      P12 – Jerai … from Umno to PAS
                      P26 – Ketereh … from Umno to PKR
                      P29 – Machang … from Umno to PKR
                      P58 – Bagan Serai … from Umno to PKR
                      P89 – Bentong … from MCA to DAP
                      P93 – Sungai Besar … from Umno to PAS
                      P96 – Kuala Selangor … from Umno to PAS
                      P119 – Titiwangsa … from Umno to PAS
                      P142 – Labis … from MCA to DAP
                      P159 – Pasir Gudang … from Umno to PKR

                      Definite BN losses, definite DAP gains

                      2 seats: Bentong & Labis

                      Possible Umno losses to PKR

                      4 seats: Ketereh, Machang, Bagan Serai & Pasir Gudang

                      Where Umno is facing off PAS, you have suggested that there would be three-cornered fights either with Amanah or DAP

                      4 seats: Jerai, Sungai Besar, Kuala Selangor & Titiwangsa

                      You (drinho) have also suggested that in a three-cornered fight, e.g. Kota Damansara DUN, it is Umno that will win.

                      So what the Protuns are doing by making Malays hate Najib and Umno is to strengthen the opposition – maybe PKR but most definitely DAP.

                    • 24. drinho  |  February 12, 2016 at 11:13 pm

                      re: Kota Damansara DUN

                      Semenyih also. 3 cornered fights. Ultimately, BN won with less than 50% of votes in both seats. I think Oppo parties in Sabah also suffered the same fate in GE13 due to 3 (or even more) cornered fights. These are good empirical evidence that BN will win due to splitting of votes between Oppo supporters. BN as a coalition will not send more than 1 candidate for a seat. PH has adopted the same formula. But PAS and PSM will disturb the equation.

                      re: 10 federal seats will change hands

                      Will the above sufficient for Oppo parties (PH & Pas, PSM etc) to take over Putrajaya?

                      re: So what the Protuns are doing by making Malays hate Najib and Umno is to strengthen the opposition

                      Why Najib can’t just resign gracefully? He has too much baggage. If he resigns, Protun will shut up. Umno can consolidate. No more factions. Oppo parties will have less impactful issues. Perhaps the new PM will enjoy ‘Pak Lah syndrome’, i.e. win big in debut election as new PM.

                    • 25. Helen Ang  |  February 13, 2016 at 12:32 am

                      re: “I think Oppo parties in Sabah also suffered the same fate in GE13 due to 3 (or even more) cornered fights.”

                      Yup. Joseph Pairin Kitingan’s total votes – although he won Keningau – were less than that of his two opponents’ combined. Sabah politics is just too complicated. Sabah is arguably the most politically complicated state in Malaysia in terms of breakaway factions and crossovers.

                      re: “These are good empirical evidence that BN will win due to splitting of votes between Oppo supporters.”

                      Not necessarily. In Labis and Bentong should PAS join the fray, MCA will definitely lose. Not sure if PAS will be able to give DAP a run for its money.

                      Also Alor Setar. MCA vs PKR (Chinese incumbent) vs PAS. Definitely MCA will lose again. The PKR-Chinese vs PAS-Malay match-up … dunno the outcome.

                      So I can’t agree with you that in three-cornered fights, the BN is sure to win.

                      re: “BN as a coalition will not send more than 1 candidate for a seat. PH has adopted the same formula.”

                      Alor Setar case in point. MCA will still not win in a three-cornered fight.

                      re: “But PAS and PSM will disturb the equation.”

                      Absolutely. That’s why I’ve been saying PAS is THE key player in changing the dynamics and esp. wrt how how Islamism plays a part.

                      re: “Will the above sufficient for Oppo parties (PH & Pas, PSM etc) to take over Putrajaya?”

                      The 10 federal seats changing hands refers to “two percent” (figure picked by Albert) swing in Malay voters.

                      If there is a four percent swing of Malay vote, BN stands to lose up to 22 Parliament seats including MIC’s Cameron Highlands, which will result in a perfect 111 to 111 (even Stevens) tie in our 222-seat Dewan. Hahaha

                      re: “Why Najib can’t just resign gracefully?”

                      The minute he loses power, they will ‘kill’ him. And Rosmah too.

                      re: “He has too much baggage.”

                      Some are merely perception game created by oppo, e.g. there was a Photoshop going around of a (faked) Utusan article where Rosmah said dia menabubg sejak dari kecik untuk mampu membeli cincin berlian tu. And some Chinese were gullible enough to believe that Utusan would actually carry such an article.

                      re: “If he resigns, Protun will shut up.”

                      Nope. As our friend Shamshul Anuar has explained, if Najib withdraws, the oppo are going to hammer home that he did so because he’s guilty.

                      Take the case of Chew Mei Fun. She resigned her Deputy Ministership when CSL made his comeback as MCA president. She was at that time holding the Women & Family portfolio. Given Dr Chua’s reputation, Chew felt that she could not continue as the MCA Dep. Minister in that ‘women & family’
                      capacity considering that she would have to report to a party boss who was a publicly shamed as an adulterer.

                      Chew also resigned her Senatorship upon the reasoning that she was given her seat in the Upper House (Senate) due to her Wanita MCA position. And since she could not see eye-to-eye with CSL, Chew felt that it wasn’t right for her to remain a Senator under the ambit of MCA. (Note: Waytha resigned his Senatorship too.)

                      Chew’s resignation was highly ethical. Yet the RBA fitnah to say that she was forced to resign because she abused an Indonesian maid.

                      Now imagine if Najib resigned. What kind of vile stories the Red Beanies would cook up. You can resign if you’re a politician in a first world country. You cannot resign when your political opponents are dajjal.

                      re: “Umno can consolidate.”

                      Umno is consolidating. Kedah is now Najib’s men.

                      re: “No more factions.”

                      There will be no more factions once the Protuns have been successfully marginalized or neutralized. Remember that none of the Ketua Bahagians have openly revolted except Jerlun and Pagoh.

                      re: “Oppo parties will have less impactful issues.”

                      They will fabricate issues, like saying TH cannot afford to pay dividend. They lie all the time.

                      re: “Perhaps the new PM will enjoy ‘Pak Lah syndrome’, i.e. win big in debut election as new PM.”

                      The same Pak Lah syndrome lost BN five states and a near wipe-out in Wilayah. Thanks but no thanks.

                    • 26. drinho  |  February 15, 2016 at 8:20 am

                      re: So I can’t agree with you that in three-cornered fights, the BN is sure to win.

                      Any empirical evidence to show that in a 3 cornered fight, BN had lost?

                    • 27. Helen Ang  |  February 15, 2016 at 8:43 am

                      I cited the examples of Bentong and Labis.

                      BENTONG

                      – Liow Tiong Lai (25,947) MCA wins with 379 majority
                      – Wong Tack (25,568) DAP

                      Malays – 45% of voters
                      Chinese – 44%
                      Indians – 9%

                      LABIS

                      – Chua Tee Yong (15,821) MCA wins with 353 majority
                      – S. Ramakrishnan (15,468) DAP

                      Malays – 36% of voters
                      Chinese – 47%
                      Indians – 15%

                      (a) BN won Bentong and Labis on wafer thin majorities of 379 and 353 respectively in straight fights – MCA vs DAP

                      (b) Bentong and Labis have 56% and 53% non-Chinese voters respectively

                      (c) MCA won 41.7% and 41.9% of the total votes cast in Bentong and Labis respectively

                      (d) MCA won Bentong and Labis against DAP’s Chinese and Indian candidates respectively in a one-on-one fight

                      (e) Project a GE14 scenario with a three-cornered battle where the 45% and 36% Malay voters in Bentong and Labis have a third option of choosing a Malay Muslim candidate from PAS. Are you so sure that BN will still win?

                    • 28. drinho  |  February 15, 2016 at 6:24 pm

                      re: So I can’t agree with you that in three-cornered fights, the BN is sure to win.

                      I take it that as of now, no whatsoever precedent to show that BN has lost in a 3 cornered fight? All historical examples were proof of BN victories?

                      re: Project a GE14 scenario with a three-cornered battle where the 45% and 36% Malay voters in Bentong and Labis have a third option of choosing a Malay Muslim candidate from PAS. Are you so sure that BN will still win?

                      I assume that both BN and Oppo retain its vote bank in Bentong and Labis (i.e. Umno Malay voters will not betray Umno and vote PAS). However, the Oppo votes will be split between DAP and PAS. Hence, BN will emerge victorious.

                    • 29. Helen Ang  |  February 15, 2016 at 6:59 pm

                      re: “I take it that as of now, no whatsoever precedent to show that BN has lost in a 3 cornered fight?”

                      You’re making a sweeping statement. While I agree that Semenyih, Kota Damansara and Keningau results (favouring BN) come first to mind, how can you dismiss that oppo can win three-cornered fights?

                      There are 576 DUN and 222 Parliament seats = 798 seats currently in play, and plus by-elections some more. Are you claiming that out of the 800-plus contests and where there are multi-cornered fights BN has never ever lost? Come on lah.

                      re: “All historical examples were proof of BN victories?”

                      I’m sure there are. We’ve had 13 general elections since Merdeka, i.e. 13 times 800 seats (progressively less in earlier editions of the GE) = thousands, in the five figures, of elections result to examine.

                      At the moment I’m still on CNY break and at this very minute, I’m (between) cooking dinner! Nanti bila I ada masa lapang, I carikan contoh dan kita boleh teruskan perbincangan. Or else, any readers are free to chip in if they call recall the results (of three-cornered fights, esp. in SABAH!) off-hand.

                      re: Project a GE14 scenario with a three-cornered battle where the 45% and 36% Malay voters in Bentong and Labis have a third option of choosing a Malay Muslim candidate from PAS. Are you so sure that BN will still win?

                      re: “I assume that both BN and Oppo retain its vote bank in Bentong and Labis (i.e. Umno Malay voters will not betray Umno and vote PAS). However, the Oppo votes will be split between DAP and PAS. Hence, BN will emerge victorious.”

                      I wouldn’t be too sure. Will the pro-establishment voters, after experiencing the tsunami, still view MCA as being aligned to the BN or would these Malay voters give their votes to PAS in the name of perpaduan ummah?

                      In Alor Setar (where MCA already lost in GE13) and Bentong, I believe the Umno voters would give their votes to PAS rather than MCA.

                    • 30. HY  |  February 15, 2016 at 7:46 pm

                      in my memory, tanah rata state seat. but the winning independence was from mca, he later join gerakan. opposition rarely win 3 cornered fight, mostly in case when the supposed bn candidate is not chosen n he insist to stay on.

                    • 31. drinho  |  February 19, 2016 at 9:49 pm

                      re: Nanti bila I ada masa lapang, I carikan contoh dan kita boleh teruskan perbincangan.

                      Helen, CNY is coming to an end soon. Hope you will have more free time later. I am still interested to test the theory of ‘whether BN will win in a 3 cornered fight’ based on historical election results.

                      May I trouble you to start with analysis on GE13 of Sabah Parliament seats?

                    • 32. Helen Ang  |  February 19, 2016 at 10:32 pm

                      Sabah 2013 results where BN lost in multi-cornered fights:

                      DAP’s Wong Hong Jun won Likas (N14) in a four-cornered fight with LDP-BN, SAPP (ex-CM Yong Teck Lee) and Star.

                      DAP’s Hiew King Cheu won Luyang (N16) in a four-cornered fight with MCA, SAPP and Star.

                      DAP’s Edwin Bosi won Kapayan (N19) in a four-cornered fight with MCA, SAPP and Star.

                      PKR’s Lajim Ukin won Klias (N25) in a four-cornered fight with Umno, SAPP and Star.

                      PKR’s Jelin Dasanap won Matunggong (N4) in a multi-cornered fight with PBS-BN, SAPP and Star.

                      PKR’s Wilfred Bamburing won Tamparuli (N9) in a multi-cornered fight with PBS-BN, SAPP and Star.

                      Other oppo seats won in Sabah follow the same pattern but the examples I’ve shown are enough.

                • 33. Lousy.Engineer  |  February 11, 2016 at 10:48 pm

                  In order to predict an election outcome, look at how Nate Silver successfully forecasted USA’s 2008 and 2012 election outcome (which probably a lot more complicated than Malaysia’s). Not an apple to apple comparison but certainly worth reading… We need more data here than just ethnic composition in a seat, how many parties contesting in a seat (something we don’t know yet), the race of opposing candidates, newly registered voters sentiment and so on- so many variables. Malay voters’ sentiment is a big question mark now …

                  Reply
                  • 34. Lousy.Engineer  |  February 12, 2016 at 12:45 am

                    As of now, DJIA is plunging 380 points. Oil price is diving under $27/barrel. My fear is that we probably going to see a global recession this year with a big blow-up in China’s banking crisis creating a perfect storm. Probably a year of pay cut for me, if lucky, if not I probably will have to become a Uber driver….. GLTA

                    Reply
  • 35. albert  |  February 6, 2016 at 2:12 pm

    Some time after GE13, someone from BN lamented that had just 2% of the voters swung from BN to PR, BN would have lost the election.

    I did some analysis of the GE13 results data on a spreadsheet, and found that it is true : the tipping point is almost exactly at the 2% mark. And here is how the seats would be won at various swing percentages:

    0% swing : BN = 133, PR = 89 (=PAS 21 + DAP 38 + PKR 30)
    1% swing : BN = 123, PR = 99 (=PAS 25 + DAP 40 + PKR 34)
    2% swing : BN = 110, PR = 112 (=PAS 28 + DAP 41 + PKR 43)
    3% swing : BN = 104, PR = 118 (=PAS 29 + DAP 41 + PKR 48)
    4% swing : BN = 99, PR = 123 (=PAS 33 + DAP 41 + PKR 49)
    5% swing : BN = 91, PR = 131 (=PAS 36 + DAP 41 + PKR 54)

    So where would the killer swing votes most likely come from? From your analysis, the Chinese are already 95% anti-BN, but Malays are at 54% anti-BN which is still a lot of room for swing. So if in GE14 BN is brought down, it is most likely from Malays. And the greatest gains will be from PAS & PKR.

    Note that the analysis is based on GE13 conditions as the GE14 will have different alliances etc

    Reply
    • 36. Helen Ang  |  February 6, 2016 at 3:32 pm

      According to your spreadsheet, if a mere two percent Malay swing can make BN lose, then it means that Putrajaya is vulnerable to the oppo led by DAP.

      Which is what I’ve been saying.

      The DAP is going all out to preach hate against Najib so that the Malays meluat dan menyampah against Umno. Then with a shift of the Malays, especially the Protuns and the liberals, DAP will reap the benefits.

      How they make people hate is by creating fitnah and telling lies everywhere. That why DAP is dajjal. Dajjal is the Great Deceiver. Dajjal lies all the time.

      Reply
      • 37. HY  |  February 11, 2016 at 10:21 pm

        helen, if we read albert n drinho, basically they r telling u that it is impossible for dap to lead in federal. there r too many contradiction in yr view, the 2% swing would make either pkr or pas to become the true lead, not dap. n lets talk about the general sentiment among the chinese, i agree with drinho that dap r actually in a dilemma how n where to field their malay candidate. the moment some chinese (perhaps 50%, for those above 40 years old) find out dap move to the middle, they would probably swing back to mca/gerakan. the wisdom of umno is they r inclusive enough to accomodate anyone as long as one acknowledge the reality that bn is umno. i doubt dap can do better than last ge.

        my ideal is umno fall in federal, n gerakan revive in penang, to me, no party shd govern more than 2 terms, that shall include pkr in selangor n pas in kelantan.

        Reply
        • 38. What Is This  |  February 12, 2016 at 9:27 am

          Why don’t you just admit that you want Umno to fall because you hate that party ? I ask you, why is it so hard for you to admit that your dislike of Umno is based on hate ?

          Reply
          • 39. HY  |  February 12, 2016 at 4:38 pm

            i label umno as corrupt n survive on racial politicking, I rarely attack/swear umno the way u people attack/swear dap. who is full of hatred? its obvious isn’t it?

            Reply
            • 40. What Is This  |  February 12, 2016 at 7:28 pm

              So this is all that you can come up with ? If Umno is corrupt and need to play racial politics to survive, it would have used the carnage of May 13 to impose it’s racial supremecy ideology but instead invited all the other racial parties of the day to join in the formation of what is now the BN. Clearly as anyone here who is familiar with your twisted logic, historical revision is part of that twisted logic of yours.

              Reply
            • 41. HY  |  February 13, 2016 at 12:19 am

              yes i have more, but i think tis 2 is good enough for me to want umno out. n if u think umno is not corrupt, that is fine by me, i have no interest to impose my view on u. secondly, i already said umno/bn is inclusive, but at the same time, they also keep on fanning racial sentiment to garner more votes. i think parties shd compete on demonstrating their capability to govern.

              i rarely talk abt racial supremacy ideology, so pls dun debate on something i didn’t say. now tell me how i twisted logic?

              n pls dun use big word like historical revision, i am merely stating my opinion n my inclination.

              Reply
        • 42. Helen Ang  |  February 12, 2016 at 10:01 am

          HY,

          You said:

          (a) i doubt dap can do better than last ge.

          (b) my ideal is umno fall in federal

          (c) n gerakan revive in penang, to me

          (d) no party shd govern more than 2 terms, that shall include pkr in selangor n pas in kelantan.

          My opinion:

          (a) DAP will grow bigger feeding on the hate that it is creating daily

          (b) If Umno falls in federal, then your ideal situations (c) and (d) can never happen

          It is only because Penang fell to DAP,

          and Selangor fell to DAP (which has the most Adun seats in the state currently) + allies, that at federal level BN is weakened and risks losing Putrajaya.

          Going by your utopian scenario that it’s healthy for governments to change, and Penang should revert to Gerakan and Selangor revert as well, it is impossible for your own scenario (b) to happen.

          Your (a) to (d) statements are inherently contradictory among themselves.

          re: “the wisdom of umno is they r inclusive enough to accomodate anyone as long as one acknowledge the reality that bn is umno”

          Post- Chinese tsunami, the reality is that peninsula BN = Umno.

          And yes, Umno has been inclusive since 1952. Chinese fail to realise and appreciate that.

          Since I don’t belong to the 95 percent, at least I’m able to wake up to the reality of realpolitik and adjust (change my vote) stemming from my insight since 2010 when I saw what remorseless bullies the DAP really are.

          Reply
          • 43. What Is This  |  February 12, 2016 at 10:12 am

            Contradiction based on delusion is a virtue of those supporting the opposition.

            Reply
            • 44. Mulan  |  February 12, 2016 at 10:52 am

              Gong Xi Fa Cai! Goodbye to Runnymade, thanks to Penang CAT government.
              http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/02/12/cap-baffled-by-demolition-confusion-over-whether-or-not-green-light-given-to-tear-down-runnymede-pro/

              Let’s see what else will disappear in the year of the Monkey.

              Reply
              • 45. What Is This  |  February 12, 2016 at 11:05 am

                And Chow is now saying that the previous state gov approved the application to carry out a mixed development for that site. Which goes to show how mendacious the state gov really is. Only when news of developments are out in the open, the state gov ‘releases evidence’ of the previous state gov’s misdeeds. How ingenious ! If the state is really serious about being a ‘responsible gov’ then they should release all the dealings of the previous state gov.

                Reply
              • 46. HY  |  February 12, 2016 at 4:32 pm

                y preserve something that symbolised imperialism n colonisation?

                Reply
          • 47. drinho  |  February 12, 2016 at 2:00 pm

            re: (a) i doubt dap can do better than last ge.

            I agree. Simply because PAS will join the battle in DAP mixed seats (speculate about 3-5 seats). As history shows, in a 3 cornered fight BN will surely win. Oppo votes are split between DAP and PAS. DAP can kiss goodbye to these 3-5 seats.

            re: DAP will grow bigger feeding on the hate that it is creating daily

            They may do so in term of votes received. Not number of seats won.

            Reply
          • 48. HY  |  February 12, 2016 at 4:43 pm

            thats y i said ideally. i still believe in democracy, n I believe sooner or later, more n more people will believe in democracy the way i do.

            Reply
          • 49. Akim  |  February 15, 2016 at 11:07 am

            re: (a) DAP will grow bigger feeding on the hate that it is creating daily

            That’s why the Sedition Act must stay (the ISA should not have been chucked out) and used against those DAP blokes whose acts and utterances fall foul of the Act.

            And I missed the rationale – if it was given – for dropping the sedition charge against the UM lecturer Azmi Shahrom and, previously, DAP Teresa Kok. Now, old man Kit Siang is shouting for the sedition charges against various others in the country be dropped as well.

            Reply
  • 50. Akim  |  February 15, 2016 at 9:35 am

    Yes, UMNO BN must win PRU14 and, hopefully all PRUs thereafter. There is a need to trash DAP and split the block of votes going to them. They have party loyalty problems as shown by the fact that over 700 members (former Vice Chairman Tengku Aziz’s figures) were not given notices to their CEC elections resulting in the DAP CEC not recognized by the Registrar of Societies for 2 years now.

    MCA and Gerakan must exploit those to the maximum and do much, much more, roll up their sleeves and justify the 2-3 Ministerial posts they got for just the 7 Parliamentary seats the MCA brought in. They must halt their infighting in ihe MCA.

    But UMNO is also facing serious infighting. The Protun and the Projib factions. The accusations of wrong doings that seem to linger and will most certainly be exploited by the Opposition even at PRU14. The question is how to resolve the infighting. The fact that Najib got the worst election results of all UMNO BN leaders at PRU13 shows that UMNO should replace him. Especially after the endless questioning over the RM2.6 billion “donation” and the 1MDB.

    Yes, Protuns and Projibs will go on disagreeing but good that this blog allows discussions and the airing of views on those and hope it will continue indefinitely.

    Reply

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