The pundits kept predicting that Donald Trump would crash and burn. He has thwarted their forecasts time and again.
His bizarre popularity is the white blowback against “community organizer” Barack Obama who lowered the presidential bar for the Oval Office down to basement level.
As things stand, Trump can write off the minority Latino (mainly Mexican) votes, just like BN should write off Chinese votes.
Hillary may not be as popular with the blacks as Bill was but in recent decades, the Dems can usually rely on locking in the black vote.
Muslims, Mormons and other niche groups in the USA fear or loathe (or both) Trump. And these small losses to the GOP will all add up. That’s how Obama’s rainbow coalition clinched it with his campaign’s “audacious” message of Hope and Change.
Needless to say, the more things change, the more they stay they same. It’s a con.
As for Obama’s promise of ‘Hope’, obviously a swathe of the traditional working class is in despair and hence their heeding Trump’s siren song.
The Republican base can’t wait to see the back of him and to usher in to the White House The Donald, amid their chant, “Build the wall, deport them all”.
Since the whites have been pigeonholed as “racists”, “bigots”, “haters” and Drumpf rednecks, why not just live up to expectations. After all, what reputation have they got further to lose?
There’s a right-wing tide rising against immigrants and Islam. Trump is buoyed by the strong evangelical vote. It’s a backlash against the holier-than-thou political correctness of the leftists and hypocrite liberals.
The same is happening across Europe too. Marine Le Pen in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, UKIP (the Brits), the far right in Belgium, Austria, Finland and Poland are increasingly occupying the mainstream. They’re more powerful than nationalist/nativist politicians have never been since the era of Hitler and Mussolini.
Like Trump, his cousins across the Atlantic are also winning votes — wildly.
Meanwhile Angela Merkel in Germany is the most unpopular that she has ever been for forcing Germany to accept huge numbers of Syrian refugees. The natives are revolting.
On paper, the math works in Hillary’s favour.
But you can’t discount anything with the maverick, kickass Trump. Experts confidently swore that he’s a mere blip that should have been long gone. Yet he’s on his merry way to the November smackdown with Mrs Clinton.
There is of course a lesson in this for our own political calculus in Malaysia. Can you see it?