Results analysis: Super SUPP did what MCA would not

May 8, 2016 at 12:59 pm 32 comments

It was heartwarming to see SUPP president Dr Sim Kui Hian being hoisted by supporters after his victory in Batu Kawah yesterday. The uplifting moment felt as good as when Gerakan president Mah Siew Keong won the Teluk Intan by-election in 2014.

For too long, we Chinese BN supporters have been pummeled, trampled and spat upon due to the abject failure that is the MCA. This BN senior-most Chinese party is reminiscent of the Walking Dead (bangkai hidup).

Better that MCA just die. Die already, will ya! Rather than live on your knees grovelling at the feet of the Dapsters, and licking the arse of evangelistas.

StabThankfully SUPP and UPP put up a fight and managed to rollback the DAP’s inexorable advance. (Far from putting up a fight against the BN’s nemesis, MCA is instead colluding with the opposition behind BN’s back.)

Big Brother Umno must realise that even if only a very small minority (call them Sparta’s 300) of Chinese is willing to stand up and confront them, the DAP evangelical juggernaut can be halted.

The MCA, however, is clearly not able or willing to carry out the task.

Size does not matter. MCA is supposedly big – claiming to have one million members (snort! Aku tak ‘caya) – but useless in the battlefield.

SUPP is merely a state party (not a national one like the MCA) but at least it is showing some gumption against the DAP pandemic. Dr Sim’s exceptional performance in the Sarawak election, for example, went off the ‘charts’ — explained below.

linear regression Sarawak

x – percentage of Chinese registered voters in each seat
y – percentage of votes won by the opposition (14 DAP, 1 PKR)

.
‘Cina taksub giler’- DAP equation

The line in the graph above shows the close correlation between the ratio of Sarawak Chinese voters and the electoral performance of the Chinese opposition in the state’s 11th general election on May 7.

It’s become a formula that the more Chinese voters there are in a constituency, the stronger the support for DAP candidates. This is indicated by the crosses that are close to either side of the line in the graph above.

In Sarawak’s election yesterday, a few ‘giantkillers’ defied expectations.

The duo who broke the ‘Cina taksub giler’- DAP line (see scatter plot above) are the SUPP candidates represented by crosses marked in red circle, i.e. Batu Kawah and Repok.

On the other side of the coin, two DAP candidates who outperformed their party peers by getting sokongan Cina tahap gaban are the former YB Meradong and the new YB Tanjong Batu. See crosses marked in red circle.

These four crosses – Batu Kawah, Repok, Meradong and Tanjong Batu – fall a bit away from the otherwise fairly decent slope of 0.67.

DATA SET

Listed below are 15 Chinese-majority seats in the Sarawak DUN. The first column figures refer to the percentage of Chinese voters. The second column figures refer to percentage of votes received by the DAP candidate.

Padungan 93, 63.9

Pelawan 91, 58.3

Pending 90, 62.6

Bukit Assek 89, 60.3

Batu Lintang 87, 61.6

Repok 74, 45.4  ←  won by SUPP

Kota Sentosa 73, 58.2

Tanjong Batu 72, 59.1    won by DAP

Pujut 68, 52.6

Batu Kawah 60, 36.5  ←  won by SUPP president

Piasau 59, 42.2

Batu Kitang 59, 38.3

Meradong 54, 43.8  ←  lost by DAP incumbent

Dudong 53, 36.1

Bawang Assan 53, 33.4

ANALYSIS

•  Repok — DAP’s 30-year-old single lady Yong Siew Wei fared badly against the SUPP businessman Datuk here. In the 2011 previous election, Repok was won by DAP sexagenarain Dr Wong Hua Seh.

•  Batu Kawah — DAP’s 32-year-old pregnant (and miscarried) candidate Christina Chiew underperformed tremendously against SUPP’s professor cardiac surgeon Dr Sim Kui Hian. Ms Chiew only managed to obtain a poor 36.5% voter support.

•  Meradong — DAP incumbent Ting Tze Fui lost but nonetheless cannot be faulted too much for failing to retain her seat. Meradong, which has 54 percent Chinese voters, is neither a DAP stronghold nor a traditional DAP profile area, i.e. usually characterized by an 80-90 percent urban Chinese population.

Going by the ‘Cina taksub giler’- DAP line graph above, Ms Ting – who won Meradong in 2011 at the relatively young age of 30 – did well by getting sokongan Cina tahap gaban.

Click to enlarge map

Sarawak-election-map_1300

•  Tanjong Batu — This seat now called N68 is carved out of Kidurong in the Bintulu district which last time had 52 percent Chinese voters. It’s now got 72 percent Chinese and was easily won DAP incumbent Chien Chiu Sing.

Interestingly however is another new Bintulu district seat called N70 Samalaju — see electoral map above.

Samalaju adjoins Tanjong Batu and has the following ethnic demography: Non Muslim pribumi 65%, Melanau Malay 20% and Chinese 15%. Samalaju was won yesterday by BN.


SIDENOTE

The 11 new seats in Sarawak are as follows and all were won by (jeng jeng jeng  :)

  1. Batu Kitang — BN
  2. Stakan — BN
  3. Serembu — BN
  4. Bukit Semuja — BN
  5. Gedong — BN
  6. Kabong — BN
  7. Tellian — BN
  8. Bukit Goram — BN
  9. Murum — BN
  10. Samalaju — BN
  11. Mulu — BN

Okay, back to the old seats …


walking cat

The secret of BN Sarawak’s success

DAP (and one PKR man) won in all the DUN seats with more than 60-90 percent Chinese voters, i.e. Padungan, Pelawan, Pending, Bukit Assek, Batu Lintang, Kota Sentosa, Tanjong Batu and Pujut.

The only seat with a substantial number of Chinese that the DAP failed to win is Repok.

Through their landslide victory, Team Adenan clawed back five seats with between 50 and 60 percent Chinese voters that were won by DAP in 2011. They are Batu Kawah, Meradong, Repok, Piasau and Dudong.

How did Adenan Satem succeed in containing the DAP currently to its mere seven Cina pekat seats, out of the 82 total DUN seats up for grabs?

Answer: He took the bold course of being a strongman leader willing to do the unpopular thing, which is to prevent the DAP evangelistta toxins from contaminating his state.

And the Adenan antidote worked.

Hallelujah! Miracles do happen when peninsula evangelista venom is expelled. Sarawak boleh!

Semenanjung tak berani manakala MCA memang dayus.

BELOW: Hannah Yeoh stopped at Kuching airport from entering Sarawak to spread her vitriol in the churches

hannah kuching airport

Results

The list below of Sarawak Chinese majority state seats is arranged in descending order of Chinese percentage of voters.

Number of votes indicated in brackets
.

Padungan

Chinese 93%
Melanau Malay 4%,  non Muslim pribumi 3%

  • DAP — Wong King Wei* (9,332)
  • SUPP — Peter Pau (5,062)

Voter turnout: 65.4%
Votes cast: 14,602
Majority: 4,270


Pelawan

Chinese 91%
Melanau Malay 5%,  non Muslim pribumi 4%

  • DAP — Wong Kee Woan* (13,056)
  • BN — Janet Lau Ung Hie (8,742)

Voter turnout: 70.0%
Votes cast: 22,395
Majority: 4,314


Pending

Chinese 90%
Melanau Malay 5%,  non Muslim pribumi 4%

  • DAP — Violet Yong* (12,454)
  • SUPP — Milton Foo (7,442)

Voter turnout: 65.7%
Votes cast: 19896
Majority: 5,012


Bukit Assek

Chinese 89%
Melanau Malay 4%,  non Muslim pribumi 7%

  • DAP* — Irene Mary Chang (11,392)
  • SUPP — Chieng Buong Toon (6,895)

Voter turnout: 66.5%
Votes cast: 18,661
Majority: 4,497


Batu Lintang

Chinese 87%
Melanau Malay 4%,  non Muslim pribumi 10%

  • PKR — See Chee How* (10,758)
  • SUPP — Sih Hua Tong (6,373)

Voter turnout: 62.5%
Votes cast: 17,462
Majority: 4,385


N45: Repok

Chinese 74%
Melanau Malay 7%,  non Muslim pribumi 19%

  • SUPP — Huang Tiong Sii (7,446)
  • DAP* — Yong Siew Wei (6,503)

Voter turnout: 71.4%
Votes cast: 14,339
Majority: 943


Kota Sentosa

Chinese 73%
Melanau Malay 13%,  non Muslim pribumi 14%

  • DAP — Chong Chieng Jen* (10,047)
  • SUPP — Yap Yau Sin (7,228)

Voter turnout: 67.8%
Votes cast: 17,275
Majority: 2,819


Tanjong Batu

Chinese 72%
Melanau Malay 11%,  non Muslim pribumi 17%

  • DAP — Chiew Chiu Sing* (7,984)
  • SUPP — Pau Chiong Ung (5,436)

Voter turnout: 69.2%
Votes cast: 13,509
Majority: 2,548


N74: Pujut

Chinese 68%
Melanau Malay 19%,  non Muslim pribumi 13%

  • DAP* — Ting Tiong Choon  (8,899)
  • BN — Hii King Chiong (7,140)

Voter turnout: 65.1%
Votes cast: 16,927
Majority: 1,759


Batu Kawah

Chinese 60%
Melanau Malay 19%,  non Muslim pribumi 21%

  • SUPP — Dr Sim Kui Hian (6,414)
  • DAP* — Christina Chiew (4,329)

Voter turnout: 70.6%
Votes cast: 11,852
Majority: 2,085


Piasau

Chinese 59%
Melanau Malay
22%,  non Muslim pribumi 19%

  • SUPP — Sebastian Ting (7,799)
  • DAP — Alan Ling* (5,687)

Voter turnout: 64.4%
Votes cast: 13,486
Majority: 2,112


Batu Kitang

Chinese 59%
Melanau Malay 22%,  non Muslim pribumi 19%

  • SUPP — Lo Khere Chiang (6,466)
  • DAP — Abdul Aziz Isa Marindo (4,626)
  • PKR — Voon Shiak Ni (883)

Voter turnout: 69.9%
Votes cast: 12,090
Majority: 1,840


Meradong

Chinese 54%
Melanau Malay 3%,  non Muslim pribumi 43%

  • SUPP — Ding Kuong Hiing (6,856)
  • DAP — Ting Tze Fui* (5,349)

Voter turnout: 73.3%
Votes cast: 12,214
Majority: 1,516


Dudong

Chinese 53%
Melanau Malay 8%,  non Muslim pribumi 39%

  • BN — Tiong Thai King (9,700)
  • DAP — Yap Hoi Liong* (7,554)

Voter turnout: 72.8%
Votes cast: 20,922
Majority: 2,146


Bawang Assan

Chinese 53%
Melanau Malay 6%,  non Muslim pribumi 41%

  • BN — Wong Soon Koh* (9,015)
  • DAP — Chiew Sung Ngie (4,884)

Voter turnout: 80.6%
Votes cast: 14,631
Majority: 4,131

Entry filed under: Evangeliblis. Tags: .

Mutakhir: Keputusan DUN majoriti pengundi Cina # PRN S’wak Sg. Besar, K. Kangsar by-elections a better test of Chinese support

32 Comments Add your own

  • 1. tebing tinggi  |  May 8, 2016 at 1:48 pm

    The seat’s with extremely Chinese majority and low percentage of bumiputra are still dominate by DAP .

    It’s extremely misleading to tell that the Sarawak Chinese now are more BN friendly .

    MCA ,Gerakan and MIC, would favor Malay majority area.

    Reply
    • 2. Helen Ang  |  May 8, 2016 at 2:16 pm

      re: “The seats with extremely Chinese majority and low percentage of bumiputra are still dominated by DAP.”

      Correct. Statistics don’t lie.

      DAP yesterday won all the following seats with 60-90 percent Chinese voters. The sole exception was Repok (74% Cina).

      – Padungan (93% Cina)
      – Pelawan (91%)
      – Pending (90%)
      – Bukit Assek (89%)
      – Batu Lintang (87%) … PKR Chinese candidate won
      – Kota Sentosa (73%)
      – Tanjong Batu (72%)
      – Pujut (68%)

      re: “It’s extremely misleading to tell that the Sarawak Chinese now are more BN friendly.”

      You’re correct again. Any prepaid blogger who tells you that BN can win back the Chinese like in Sarawak is lying.

      I hope you will reflect critically on how you’re being conned by the Protun Melayu fraudster with his deliberately misleading write-ups on the Chinese electorate, and also ponder on the reason$ why he is being lebih Cina dari Cina.

      re: “MCA, Gerakan and MIC would favor Malay majority area.”

      I presume you’re saying that MCA, Gerakan and MIC will need to ask Umno to let them contest in Malay-majority areas during GE14.

      You have to excuse MIC as there is no Indian-majority Parliament seat.

      The most Indian-heavy state seat is Buntong in Ipoh Barat. It has 48% Indian voters, 44% Chinese and 6% Malay. There is no Indian absolute majority (>50%) seat, so MIC by necessity has to contest in Malay seats.

      MCA has no excuse for being squashed like a ripe tomato by the DAP.

      The blogger Melayu pemakan dedak parti ultra kiasu is deceiving you into becoming complacent by selling the story that the Chinese have now returned to the BN fold.

      He is peddling the line so that Umno-BN akan leka dan lalai, and repeat Najib’s mistake in 2013 when the BN chairman was expecting at least 30 percent Chinese support.

      Obviously Najib was so shocked when the Chinese support did not materialize that he blurted out “Chinese tsunami”. He was misled by inside people — the Si Kitols like the blogger now trying to persuade you that the Chinese in peninsula have reverted to being BN-friendly based on the Sarawak result.

      Sarawak is not the same as Semenanjung. We cannot ban the evangelistas like Adenan did.

      I hope that you (‘tebing tinggi’ in small letters) will be able to realise that the Liar & Fraudster RM20k blogger tells lies ALL THE TIME.

      Reply
    • 3. Helen Ang  |  May 8, 2016 at 2:44 pm

      EXPLAINING THE GRAPH

      It shows the correlation between the percentage of Chinese voters and the performance of DAP contestants. The more Cina pekat the kawasan, the higher the votes obtained by the calon DAP.

      The line is neither a very strong nor a very weak fit because of a couple of reasons like the sample size is small (15) and additionally, there are out-of-the-ordinary circumstances like DAP putting up a Malay guy in Batu Kitang.

      But generally, the points are all decently close to the line (with a perfect correlation, all the points would be exactly on the line) with the negative exceptions of Repok and Batu Kawah.

      Both the two seats (one Chinese dominated, one mixed) won by SUPP fall below the line because the two DAP gals underperformed or looking at it another way, the SUPP guy did very well in Repok and so did SUPP president Dr Sim in Batu Kawah.

      Two other points similarly a distance from the line are Meradong and Tanjong Batu, meaning that they’re a bit extraordinary.

      But both are positive exceptions as they are above the line (compare Batu Kawah and Repok below the line). Meaning the DAP gal/guy performed even better than the standard many Chinese means DAP strong showing.

      The bottomline is that the graph supports what you say about “The seats with extremely Chinese majority … are still dominated by DAP”.

      Reply
      • 4. Helen Ang  |  May 8, 2016 at 2:49 pm

        Postscript:

        The blogger Protun pemakan dedak is poor in analysis. Claiming to be on the ground but can even get his own home state results all wrong.

        He was identical to Najib — all shocked when Ghani Othman was rejected by the Gelang Patah Chinese.

        Dah lah tak reti buat analisa, lagi masih mahu besar kepala. Egonya lelaki.

        Reply
      • 5. HY  |  May 8, 2016 at 3:13 pm

        helen, not sure what is yr point, even during the worst time, dap still garner more than 50% hardcore chinese vote, for example, no matter how I despise dap fanboy attitude, i will give my vote to dap. unless if i move to penang, i might do otherwise.

        when one claim chinese is now more bn friendly, I think they mean the other 50%, they doesn’t claim each n every chinese, if statistic never lie, u have to concede the fact that some chinese that vote dap in the past do vote for bn this round. however the cause is not limited to what bn (adenan) did, but rather what dap n their fanboy did. many chinese prefer a inclusive dap that fight with bn, not one that wan to be taiko all the time.

        Reply
        • 6. Helen Ang  |  May 8, 2016 at 5:30 pm

          re: “helen, not sure what is yr point”

          There is some degree of Chinese swingback to the BN. Chong Chieng Jen downplays it to five percent.

          re: “even during the worst time, dap still garner more than 50% hardcore chinese vote

          You’re correct.

          re: “for example, no matter how I despise dap fanboy attitude, i will give my vote to dap.”

          There’s a tipping point. I voted DAP in 2008 and 2004 and would have voted for them in 1999 too except that the EC delayed in processing mine (and 650,000 other newly registered wannabe voters). The result: my batch was disenfranchised in GE10.

          Nonetheless, I refused to give my vote to DAP in 2013. It is possible to make the break. The DAP fanboy is grotesque, btw.

          re: “unless if i move to penang, i might do otherwise.”

          Yup! Roll my eyes.

          re: “when one claim chinese is now more bn friendly, I think they mean the other 50%, they doesn’t claim each n every chinese”

          It – the idea of Chinese reverting to being more BN-friendly – should not be taken as a plank of the BN’s 2018 war strategy.

          The BN war generals should plan for getting 5-10 percent Chinese vote rather than factor the xy percent takeaway from S’wak results as the ‘other’ blogger is proposing (on the premise that the peninsular Chinese – in his belief – can be enticed to be buddy-buddy).

          re: “if statistic never lie, u have to concede the fact that some chinese that vote dap in the past do vote for bn this round.”

          Possibly but have to look at the data again on low turnout rate and margin of majority. Remember that Batu Kawah won by SUPP’s Dr Sim is a 60 percent Chinese area, which means that a huge 40 percent chunk of non-Chinese votes were in play. Plus his area is almost 20 percent Malay.

          re: “however the cause is not limited to what bn (adenan) did, but rather what dap n their fanboy did.”

          They’re evangelistas. They crusade against Islam.

          re: “many chinese prefer a inclusive dap that fight with bn, not one that wan to be taiko all the time.”

          DAP is guided by its Christian triumphalism and the conquistador mindset. ‘Conquistador’ comes from the root “conquer”/”conquest”.

          They’ve have a thousand year history of bloody imperialism and subjugating the pagans. That’s why Dapsters talk and behave like that. They cannot/are unable to/incapable of internalizing Chinese peace and harmony.

          Reply
          • 7. HY  |  May 8, 2016 at 11:13 pm

            peninsular chinese, those above 50 years old, most likely will give their vote to mca / gerakan in the coming ge. the older generation is still very mca, n their understanding of history is not the same as the younger generation, they vote pr not dap if u know the diff. the moment they found out dap is a lone fighter, most likely they would desert dap.

            Reply
            • 8. Helen Ang  |  May 9, 2016 at 6:10 am

              Okay, thanks for sharing your POV. I get your point.

              Older Malaysians are unfortunately fewer.

              I’ve said before that any MCA followers still left supporting the party are those who had gotten their membership during the time of Tan Cheng Lock.

              The younger Malaysians who are plentiful are DAP supporters and also supporters of the Malay opposition. They’re digital media savvy on top of being gung ho aggressive.

              The older generation in MCA and Umno managed to maintain the Ali-Ah Chong-Muthu formula. The ABU movement seeks to destroy the BN and along with that, out goes the Perikatan balance.

              Adenan’s landslide is one up for multiculturalism, one down for the Tanah Melayu-Bumi Islam camp.

              Reply
            • 9. calvinsankaran  |  May 9, 2016 at 9:15 am

              I like and concur with your views. Such perceptive and accurate analysis of political trend is sadly missing these days. DAP gets at least 50% of Chinese votes in any election, even during the worse days.

              You are correct in saying that the older Chinese voter has a different perspective of politics and takes a broader view of the national politics and issues. He/she knows and accepts that as the Chinese are a minority and the bumis are the majority. They know what they can and cannot have and claim.

              However the younger generation has no time for such lofty and broad view of the national issues and their place in Malaysia.

              I think the biggest thing that DAP managed to do successfully in the last GE is that they somehow convinced the Chinese that they can overthrow BN/UMNO and enjoy the equality in economic and political matters despite their minority status. This what fired the imagination of the Chinese. This was done via non stop brainwashing and the relentless propaganda by their thuggish cyber-troopers.

              The other strategy was in the scaremongering of the urban Christians Chinese by the clever usage of the Rock star Christian politicians such as Hannnah Yeoh, Tony, LGE, etc.

              Reply
  • 11. ashiok  |  May 8, 2016 at 3:07 pm

    is your grandy still around?

    Reply
  • 12. Setem  |  May 8, 2016 at 7:33 pm

    Congrats to Adenan Satem. Hope he and his team sticks to their election promises.

    The real litmus test for Najib popularity is the pending by elections in Sg Besar and Kuala Kangsar. He may lose the former parliamentary seat.

    Reply
    • 13. Aku Melayu  |  May 8, 2016 at 8:30 pm

      Setem,

      You are parotting what Zam alkazam had said. But I will not give 2 hoots to a person who is confused between ‘election’ and ‘erection’!

      Reply
      • 14. Tehtarik  |  May 9, 2016 at 8:53 am

        No problem i suppose. Umno will win by bigger margin. Easily, now that the chinese are back backing the BN.

        Reply
        • 15. Setem  |  May 9, 2016 at 12:40 pm

          You should read Helen’s latest blog. You are surely mistaken that Chinese in Sg Besar and K Kangsar will back UMNO/ BN.

          Reply
      • 16. Setem  |  May 9, 2016 at 12:36 pm

        And who were you again?

        Reply
      • 17. drinho  |  May 9, 2016 at 6:34 pm

        Aku Melayu,

        What Zam said is correct. When we said BN Sarawak, it is not the same as BN nation-wide. The former has no Umno, MCA, MIC etc and consist only of Sarawak local based parties (PBB, SUPP etc). In fact, BN peninsular parties have zero presence in Sarawak.

        The Najib factor (read national issues, 1MDB, GST, weak RM etc) is not that prominent as compared to Adenan factor (read local Sarawakian issues like state autonomy, new CM etc). Zam is correct to say the real test test for Najib is Sg. Besar and Kuala Kangsar. Sentiment in these 2 seats will better reflect the national sentiment on Najib.

        Reply
  • 18. IT.Scheiss  |  May 8, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    Well, the swing back to BN in Sarawak was as predicted by quite a few.

    I even heard a prediction that this outcome of the Sarawak State Election could well lead Najib calling a snap general elections this year, hoping to get a fresh mandate to continue after all the hoo hah over 1MDB.

    If this prediction comes to pass and a snap GE is called this year, the outcome will be interesting.

    Reply
    • 19. Helen Ang  |  May 8, 2016 at 9:40 pm

      Two by-elections in Sg Besar & K. Kangsar first.

      These vacant Umno seats will be a more accurate test for Najib than S’wak DUN.

      I really doubt that BN is ready for a snap election.

      Reply
      • 20. IT.Scheiss  |  May 9, 2016 at 8:56 am

        OK. Let’s see what happens in K. Kamgsar and Sg. Besar.

        Reply
        • 21. calvinsankaran  |  May 9, 2016 at 9:21 am

          My thought is that Pakatan Harapan is in for a big shock as they still think they can use the Rm2.6B and 1MDB issues to undermine BN/UMNO.

          I think the worse thing about these by-elections is putting up with the ugly show that Pakatan Harapan would be no doubt dishing out. Oh, I’m sure the Protun folks would be there in full force too, with their own brand of circus replete with clowns. I guess this would be good news for MKini so they can continue to fill their web site with anti-BN stories and headlines.

          Reply
          • 22. Lousy.Engineer  |  May 9, 2016 at 9:38 pm

            Not a direct reply to your message but a little bird (3rd hand info btw) told me big brother is engaging some entities in the tech industry to monitor the sentiments of the rakyat marhaen using data-sets from news feed(?), social media apps(?) etc. like how sentiments analysis is done using tweet data;– data science is all the rage at the moment, better embrace it. I have no doubt that even comments appearing here can possibly be mined for further text analysis to gauge “sentiment”.

            Reply
            • 23. calvinsankaran  |  May 10, 2016 at 1:16 pm

              Data science or data mining for political campaigning started in the US since the 2008 presidential election by Obama. He even had a special team of data scientists to drive this. These days such campaigns have become common place all over the West.

              As I heard, Pakatan in fact did use some aspects of data science starting from the 2008 GE helped by some consultants from the US (allegedly they also relied on some Israeli folks). These folks apparently not oly taught them political campaigning but also the use of data science and social media. In fact it is said that these consultants helped to shape the campaign strategy for them. It is also said that this team was also responsible for training the RBA in cyber terrorism.

              I am not a data scientist but I am very familiar with it due to my academic background as well as my job requirements. In my company we do have a team for analytics and often I work and collaborate with them. While it offers some interesting possibilities, I think the impact of data science is limited due to a number of reasons.

              There was even a special coverage on big data and politics in the Economist magazine a few weeks ago. I really don’t think there is much data science can help in the coming by elections or even the next GE.

              Reply
              • 24. islam1st  |  May 10, 2016 at 8:18 pm

                Dengar kata KJ ada pakai, mungkin Regina Lee boleh cerita sikit…

                Reply
        • 25. tebing tinggi  |  May 9, 2016 at 11:18 am

          Base on the Sawarak result and UMNO confidence ,the oppositions group ,whoever it may be, will sure to lose their deposit .

          Reply
          • 26. Helen Ang  |  May 9, 2016 at 11:59 am

            re: “Based on the Sarawak result and Umno confidence”

            Umno should stop listening to Si Kitols. That’s how they got swept away by the tidal waves of 2008 and 2013, and not even knowing what hit them.

            Melayu reject (prepaid blogger Protun balaci DAP) are being paid to foster a sense of complacency in Umno so that Melayu akan jadi alpa dan senang dimakan.

            Reply
        • 27. Mulan  |  May 9, 2016 at 11:19 am

          Even in Penang, I don’t think Pakatan is as popular as in 2008 in Penang. Tokong’s Mangosteen saga and the soon to be revealed relevalations of the Tunnel by Rahman Dahlan, Botak Hill, and dog killing as not fueling his popularity. His new BFF, M is not making him more popular.

          Just look at the turnout at Straits Quay.
          http://khairulryezal.blogspot.my/2016/05/cina-dap-tidak-hairan-dengan-kehadiran.html

          Another suggestion. If DAP can cross the China Sea, why can’t SUPP? The Chinese in Semananjung need an MCA replacement.

          Reply
          • 28. drinho  |  May 10, 2016 at 8:44 am

            re: If DAP can cross the China Sea, why can’t SUPP?

            We have seen many Peninsular based oppo parties venturing into Sarawak (eg. DAP, PKR, PAS) but not BN parties. In fact, Umno etc have zero presence in Sarawak. Similarly, Sarawak based BN parties (PBB, SUPP etc) also have zero presence in Peninsular and Sabah. I think there is some kind of agreement not to encroach into another territory between BN Peninsular parties and BN Sarawak based parties. It will stay this way to ensure harmony. BN Sarawak learnt the lesson from Sabah.

            Reply
      • 29. Mulan  |  May 9, 2016 at 10:47 am

        I think one of the reasons for the swing back to BN is Tokong himself. He has become a political liability. With his Mangosteen Orchard and poolside saga with the MACC story, he becomes a liability to DAP. For one who screams Bersih, his saga gives the opposite impression.
        His sexy-tary (the hairy boorish Ng)’s spate with PKR does not help either.
        Neither does the Julian City Harvest’s antics at the airport impress anyone.

        Reply
  • 30. Ijah  |  May 9, 2016 at 2:39 am

    Good analysis…

    Reply
  • 31. Fakin' Fake Calvin  |  May 9, 2016 at 3:50 pm

    The general feeling in Kuching was pretty much what happened at the polls.

    Padungan, Stampin & Batu Lintang would be comfortably won as these are what I’d call 100% urban areas i.e smack in the middle of the city with freehold titles & all the malls/amenities.

    Kota Sentosa, Batu Kawah & Batu Kitang are semi urban areas as there are equal or even more traditional kampungs as there are modern organised housing areas.

    Christina Chiew in Batu Kawah was on shaky ground from the start as she was inexperienced & there were many complaints over her handling of the constituency during her tenure. Add to the fact that Dr Sim started laying a foundation for his run back in 2013 there.

    Batu Kitang was always gonna be a close run thing as it’s more rural than urban in virtually 90% of the seats. And Voon Shiak Ni had in fact started serving the people there for a few years thus how comprehensively she was outclassed in favor of the DAP candidate for the opposition votes was a real surprise.

    As for Kota Sentosa where a part of the constituency was taken away to form Stakan & Batu Kitang, it’s a mix of old residential estates & chic new + expensive housing due to its close proximity with the airport. Also within the constituency would be army camps + old squatter villages near the subsidiary of Sarawak river thus very flood prone. Discontentment was rife there over how little CCJ has done over the years since he replaced Alfred Yap of SUPP there. That said, I guess anti establishment sentiments were strong enough to carry him through though at the early parts of the counting from the kampungs he was trailing. 

    As for the seats in & around Sibu, rumor has it that the timber tycoons wanted DAP out thus pouting a lot of money into the campaigns of their proxies from BN. Sentiments & motivations may be different when GE14 rolls round.

    Wouldn’t read too much into the results tbh. Sarawakian Chinese have a tendency of voting one side for the state election & the other for the parliamentary elections.

    All in, MCA & Gerakan shouldnt be too chuffed with the supposed swing back in Chinese votes. Adenan played an important role in that swing. Najib is a whole different ballgame altogether.

    Reply
    • 32. calvinsankaran  |  May 10, 2016 at 2:00 pm

      Thanks for the excellent analysis. BTW I noted how aggressive DAP was this time in bullying PKR and fielding numerous candidates even in rural areas. Not to mention the effort put into the Impian Sarawak project since the last GE. In the end, it all backfired as they had over estimated their popularity.

      Also Ting Tze Fui who apparently leads a colourful life (hint : Eli Wong) was again fielded despite everyone and his dog knowing about it.

      I think DAP is aiming to be the Big Kahuna, seeing from the Sarawak Election and their leaders’ talk. I think they will ditch PKR and go head to head with UMNO in the next GE.

      Reply

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