The real and big swing is that Chinese votes, earlier given to PAS in GE13, have now gone over to PAN.
Meanwhile, support for Umno is merely maintained at status quo (previous levels with little change).
PAN, the DAP’s little familiar, got more votes than PAS in the Sungai Besar by-election yesterday.
- PAN: 7,609 votes
- PAS: 6,902 votes
This is the first time that PAN has contested a Parliament election in the peninsula. Earlier PAN contested a handful of DUN seats in the recent Sarawak election. The PAS splinter party fared miserably in the Borneo state.
So where did the PAN votes then come from yesterday? Picture clue below …
Comparing 2013 and 2016 voting stats
In Sungai Besar during the 2013 general election, PAS obtained 18,296 votes. In yesterday’s by-election, PAS only obtained 6,902 votes.
Contrasting between 2013 and 2016 results, PAS lost 11,394 votes.
A loss for PAS is a gain for PAN
As a new party, PAN starts from a base of zero. However PAN still managed to obtain 7,609 votes yesterday in the by-election.
Needless to say, the bulk of those votes are from Cina DAP. This is the opinion of PAS vice president Idris Ahmad, who is also his party’s MP in Bukit Gantang.
Bernama quoted Idris as saying,
“Kalau kita tengok, Amanah mengatasi kita di semua pusat mengundi kawasan Cina kerana mereka juga mendapat bantuan DAP.”
During the campaign
BELOW: Tun shilling for the opposition in DAP Chinese-area Sekinchan during the Sg. Besar by-election
ABOVE: Meanwhile at Kuala Kangsar, Tun urged voters to hand a resounding defeat to the Umno candidate — a bereaved widow of the Umno MP whose demise caused the by-election
ABOVE: A bunch of pro-opposition Chinese who had supported hudud in 2013; the words on their armband says “Sokong hudud” (see below)
Chinese no longer supporting PAS and hudud
The 6,902 votes obtained yesterday by PAS comprises the Islamist party’s own secure Muslim grassroots in Sg. Besar.
Back in GE11 (2004) before the makkal sakti and Chinese tsunami factors of GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013) respectively, the PAS man had 7,988 votes in the 11th general election.
So this cache of 7000-8,000 votes is the PAS fixed deposit.
Between the 2004/2008 and 2008/2013 general elections, PAS first gained 3,072 votes, then 7,236 votes in Sg. Besar. This ballooning of support for PAS in Selangor, as a member of the newly formed Pakatan coalition, was derived from Chinese votes.
The deflating of the balloon yesterday translates into ‘Back to the Basics’ for PAS.
Sino-Malay calculus post PAS sacking by DAP
Last year, DAP kicked PAS out from Pakatan Rakyat.
In the 13th general election, PAS had gained an additional 7,236 votes in Sg Besar from the Chinese tsunami. Yesterday in the by-election, PAN collected 7,609 votes.
The two 7k-plus figures mentioned above are a close fit.
Thus we can logically infer that DAP moved its Chinese flock – 31 percent or almost one-third of the Sg. Besar electorate – from PAS’s additional 7,236 votes in 2013 to PAN’s new votes in 2016.
BELOW: Penghijrahan undi Cina
Status quo between the Malay, Muslim parties
Subtracting PAN’s present gain of 7,609 votes from PAS’s hemorrhage of 11,394 votes, we have a discrepancy of 3,785 votes still to be accounted for.
Actually, these 3,000-plus transient PAS votes just bled away — not having gone to Umno either.
Budiman Mohd Zohdi’s 16,800 votes in the by-election yesterday is comparable (matching) to his predecessor the late Noriah Kasnon’s 16,069-vote haul two elections ago in 2008.
So Umno did not really gain many more votes in absolute numbers but instead lost 1,895 this time around.
Umno’s reduced vote count may be attributed to:
(a) the lower turnout
(b) Sg. Besar registered voters who are working elsewhere (in the more developed urban areas) and did not return home to cast their ballot
(c) those who decided to sit out on the fence, either due to Protun or anti-Najib sentiments
(d) abstaining as a protest or simply from political fatigue
However in terms of actual level of support, Umno saw an increase of a mere 3½ percent in percentage point. In 2013, the (late) Umno incumbent got 49.6 percent of the total 37,681 votes cast. Spoilt votes were 690.
Yesterday, the Umno candidate got 53.0 percent of the total 31,690 votes cast. Spoilt votes were 379.
It is not that Umno did phenomenally well (albeit Umno admittedly did put up a good show) but that the fractured opposition did not do so well due to their infighting.
Chinese showed PAS the middle finger
PAS’s plummet yesterday by more than 11,000 votes was a result of the Chinese electorate pulling the rug out from under the feet of the Islamist party.
The seismic shift showed that ~ what DAP giveth, DAP can taketh away ~.
In 2013, DAP herded the Chinese votes to PAS. In yesterday’s by-election, DAP shepherded the Chinese votes to PAN.
Similar to the trend in Sarawak recently, some Chinese vote in Sg. Besar did swing back to the BN — with possibly one-fifth or even up to one-quarter of the Chinese who came out to vote yesterday voting in favour of the BN.
This slight thawing among the Chinese electorate need not necessarily foreshadow a lasting trend with regard to the community as Sg. Besar’s Chinese enclave is in a semi-rural area.
Chinese living in towns and cities are affected by issues which are different from Chinese living in semi-urban and rural districts.
For instance, the retrieval (from Indonesian authorities) of two Chinese fishermen Sekinchan inhabitants had won the BN brownie points. City folk Chinese are not fishermen and farmers. Hence political mileage earned from something like the ‘rescue’ coup would not be able to be replicated among urban Chinese for gaining BN the same goodwill.
In the DAP pekat area of Sekinchan, the Chinese votes were for PAN — see below the returns from one polling station as an example.
Cina benci PAS dulu, kini dan selamanya
Yesterday’s result in Sg. Besar provided another insight, i.e. the premise that with DAP missing from the cards as their first choice, and the Hobson’s choice being either the devil or the deep blue sea, Chinese voters inclined to Umno rather than PAS.
Boy, were PAS suckered by the DAP evangelista playacting into thinking that the Chinese have changed their superior attitude towards “ragheads” (derogatory label slapped on PAS people by Christian chauvinists).
Dah mesra-Islam, konon. PAS mampu tarbiyah DAP, konon.
Suckers!!! Pak Kopiah and Mak Jubah hosting Hannah in their home
PAS sent crashing down to Earth
The naive, gullible and careless action by PAS in throwing open the door of their masjids and suraus to the DAP evangelistas has been harmful to Islam.
It allowed the evangelical party to craft a false Islam-friendly image and to make inroads so as to deceive the ummah.
For years people (like me) have been warning PAS that DAP evangelistas are not to be trusted.
But nooooo, the PAS operatives instead called me a “bad Buddhist” for discouraging PAS’s embrace of the Selendang Squad and its Ops Kissy-kissy/Occupy Mosque campaign.
Harap-harap PAS dah bertaubat
PAS should have learned its lesson delivered with a brutal sting by those who used to call PAS their “brothers and sisters”. Hilang 11,394 undi, bah.
By now, PAS should realise that it will not win any Chinese support in GE14.
Given this reality, PAS should opt to take MCA head on in the Malay-majority areas contested and lost by the BN Chinese party.
It is Umno that is enjoying the upper hand and holding the aces.