The truth about Chinese votes in twin by-elections

June 21, 2016 at 1:01 pm 18 comments

Six elements influenced the Chinese voting pattern in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar.

1.

(1) DAP did not contest both the by-elections, so Chinese voters were deprived of their first choice. They could only pick between three unappealing Malay/Muslim parties.

2.

(2) Turnout for the twin by-elections was low, and turnout in the Chinese areas even lower.

The sharp drop in turnout – compared to GE13’s ubah-tsunami climate of 2013 – created a distortion.

(a)

According to political commenter Kim Quek today in FMT, the skew happened as a result of “the massive absence of the anti-BN outstation Chinese voters”. He cited polling stations in Jalan Dato and Kampong Pajak Potong, Kuala Kangsar as suffering a reduced turnout by “a whopping 37 percent”.

(b)

Wong Chin Huat, a fellow of Penang Institute (the de facto DAP think-tank) made the same point, citing a drop of 19 percentage points in some heavily Chinese precincts.

According to Wong:

“Preliminary analysis shows that the PAS was wiped out in some predominantly-Chinese precincts while Amanah also did badly in some predominantly-Malay ones.

“More importantly, in both constituencies, the turnout rates dived by more than 13 percentage points, and the fall in some Chinese areas reached 19 percentage points, which partly contributed to the impression that there was a sizeable Chinese swing towards BN.” — see Malay Mail (20 June 2016)

In other words, the Chinese stayed home.

3.

(3) To reiterate Chin Huat’s findings above, “PAS was wiped out in some predominantly-Chinese precincts”.

The shift in the Chinese electorate was not so much renewed attraction to BN but rejection of PAS. Many believe Hadi Awang’s “hudud bill” had turned off the Chinese.

(a)

Sin Chew in its editorial yesterday observed some examples of the shift:

  • “Of the three Chinese-majority polling stations in Sungai Besar, for example, 505 Chinese voters who once voted for PAS are now voting for the BN.”
  • “The support for BN in Jerlun new village [in Kuala Kangsar] has doubled from 26% in 2013 to 52%”
  • “By comparison, PAS managed to get some 75% of Chinese votes under the banner of Pakatan Rakyat during the last general elections.”

(b)

Sin Chew‘s conclusions:

(i) “… the collapse of PR and the party’s [PAS] insistence to push ahead hudud law have estranged the Chinese voters, resulting in the drastic fall in their support among Chinese voters. PAS’ insistence on hudud might have somehow contributed to BN’s increased support among the Chinese voters.”

(ii) “While we cannot rule out the fact that BN’s candy policy has worked, the outcome nevertheless shows that the local Chinese community indeed is more concerned about physical development.”
.

4.

(4) BN dangled a lot of carrots.The Chinese took a chunky bite.

It is easier to distribute goodies during by-elections.

In a general election covering the whole country, however, constituencies can no longer be lavished this kind of individual attention nor have federal big shots and ministers parachute in and promising to be nice.

(a)

Kim Quek posits:

“The other factor of unusual increase in support to BN as in some polling stations in Sekinchan, Selangor, is the special favours specific to the local residents dished out by BN like instant approval of long deprived citizenship, handing out permits to fishermen to import long-deprived foreign workers, freeing of fishermen imprisoned in Sumatra, etc.” (See ‘Fallacies and facts of the two by-elections‘ in FMT)

(b)

Kim Quek believes that the appearance of a return of Chinese support to BN is “more illusory than factual”.

He also believes that “the widespread and deep-running Chinese discontent against BN over long-standing racial discrimination and runaway corruption” will take its usual toll on the ruling coalition come general election, as it did previously in GE12 and GE13.

5.

(5) The quantum of increase in Chinese support for BN may evaporate in a GE.

Dah Ikhwan’s analysis on June 18:

“Satu lagi rumusan yang diperolehi ialah sokongan kaum Cina untuk BN sudah meningkat mungkin dalam lingkungan 10% kepada 25% manakala majoriti masih lagi mengundi DAP atau parti sponsornya, PAN.”

(a)

My estimate tallies with Dah Ikhwan’s. I wrote:

“Similar to the trend in Sarawak recently, some Chinese vote in Sg. Besar did swing back to the BN — with possibly one-fifth or even up to one-quarter of the Chinese who came out to vote yesterday voting in favour of the BN.”

[A quarter is 25 percent. Nonetheless do bear in mind that in absolute numbers, the Chinese who had gone out to vote in the by-elections was a low figure.]

(b)

Dah Ikhwan moreover sounds a cautionary note, saying:

“Ini satu petanda baru yang nampak setelah peningkatan sokongan pengundi Cina kepada BN di PRN Sarawak pada bulan lepas. Bagaimanapun, sama ada ini akan kekal dan terus bertambah adalah satu persoalan, kerana pengundi Cina mudah berubah mengikut keadaan dan peluang yang mereka nampak. Jadi masyarakat Melayu perlu terus berhati-hati dan jangan terpedaya dengan hasutan politik Cina DAP.”

6.

(6) Chinese voters pulled off a piece of deceptive playacting before slapping the shell-shocked Najib with their tsunami, and they think they can again fool the Melayu yang selalu saja nak bersangka baik.

About Dah Ikhwan’s warning for masyarakat Melayu untuk “terus berhati-hati dan jangan terpedaya dengan hasutan politik Cina DAP”, I shall add that the Malay community will equally need to beware the trickery of Melayu DAP too.


SUCKER!

Kalau tak tipu maka namanya bukan DAP (atau Melayu DAP)

anime sailor moon snigger

Con job so that MCA’s big loss will be DAP’s gain in GE14

One particular Melayu balaci DAP (who alluded to Umno as a “racist”, “despicable” and “hateful” party) has already gone into spin overdrive to try and make the Umno war room leka or complacent.

He is a 20k Trojan horse bent on throwing the Umno strategy out of whack by attempting to convince Team Najib that Chinese voters have returned to the BN’s embrace.

If Najib can be persuaded that the Chinese will swing back to him, then BN will continue letting MCA (and Gerakan) contest Malay-majority seats in the next election. But MCA is sure to lose these seats either to PAN or to DAP itself.

Siakap senohong gelama ikan duri, ini dia Melayu penyamar yang dah jadi DAP

laugh China girl

Melayu barua DAP yang anti perpaduan ummah

Any Malay who loves his tanahair would be receptive to the idea of perpaduan ummah. Only a Melayu DAP would argue so agitatedly against such a move.

The rhetoric put forth by this Malay oppo psywar operator is that Umno would be “racist” to sideline MCA in favour of cooperation with PAS. As well, it’s “hateful” for Umno not to bend over backwards to welcome the Chinese’s return to the fold.

A DAP prepaid knows how easy it is to take the Malays on a guilt trip of feeling bad if they fail to act “nice”.

This lebih-Cina-dari-Cina hidung sudu senduk Melayu fella is lying about the Chinese vote calculus just as he lies about many other things.

Umno blogosphere and the political circles, particularly Umno Johor, know who the Melayu munafiq blogger is. Sudah terang lagi bersuluh persekongkolannya dengan DAP … sah ‘Melayu skru Melayu’.

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Entry filed under: Malay mole. Tags: , .

TPJ: Our twin victories delivered by Allah in holy month PAS-Umno symmetry

18 Comments Add your own

  • 1. Zack  |  June 21, 2016 at 1:53 pm

    This is what my thinking too. Outside voters did not return home to vote. Perhaps political fatigue or that by election is not that important.
    Must remember the Ijok by election in 2007, because syok sendiri, Pak Lah dissolved parliament and call for early election in 2008 (terms still another year to go). The result was that BN lost some key states including Selangor and Penang.
    Hope Najib does not tertipu with these so called analysts who want early election because of the supposed BN strength.

    Reply
  • 2. RINA  |  June 21, 2016 at 1:58 pm

    Cik Helen,

    Kuala Kangsar jangan lupa ya mendiang Karpal. Kuala Kangsar is Bandar diRaja tau. Many Malays esp oghang Kuala will not easily forget him.

    Oghang Kuala pergaulan kekeluargaan mereka very erat dan rapat wan. Suddenly 2 strangers came during election trying to become their representative? Haiya.

    Reply
  • 3. What Is This  |  June 21, 2016 at 3:38 pm

    Bukan blogger Melayu tu saja Helen. Ada seorang lagi tapi dia tu Tionghua. Dulu nama dia ******** tapi sekarang dia dah tukar nama. Nama baru dia ****** tapi wajah blog dia sama saja. Dia ni pun syiok sendiri.

    Reply
    • 4. shamshul anuar  |  June 21, 2016 at 11:30 pm

      What is This,

      Though UMNO welcomes increases in Chinese share of votes to BN, UMNO must not be fooled again.

      These by elections have no bearing on change of government at Federal level.

      But there is some genuine votes from Chinese community. Not so much due to released of fishermen jailed in Indonesia. But rather they accept reality that UMNO is here to stay. meaning they think UMNO will still lead Malaysia after next general election.

      The main reason that leads to such realisation is the fact that UMNO prevails despite almost entire Chinese community rejecting it.Another reason would be PAS s out of PR, taking away a sizeable Malay votes with it.

      Reply
  • 5. Melayu Malaysia  |  June 21, 2016 at 4:23 pm

    If it was due to political fatigue the Chinese stayed away, so let it be and they can stay away for as long as they want.

    Perhaps they realized that whatever tsunami comes along, there is no certainty their beloved DAP will lead the Pakatoons to Putrajaya. It will be futile effort. Might as well make more money, cradle to grave.

    And the new de facto chief might not be there to lead them in a couple of years time.

    Reply
  • 6. Mulan  |  June 21, 2016 at 5:01 pm

    “Of the three Chinese-majority polling stations in Sungai Besar, for example, 505 Chinese voters who once voted for PAS are now voting for the BN.”

    “The support for BN in Jerlun new village [in Kuala Kangsar] has doubled from 26% in 2013 to 52%”
    “By comparison, PAS managed to get some 75% of Chinese votes under the banner of Pakatan Rakyat during the last general elections.”

    Such conscientious reporters. Did they manage to get hardcopies of the before and after votes?

    Really such bull. We know that voting is private and confidential. Syiok sendiri reporting. Is the data verifiable?

    “Any Malay who loves his tanahair would be receptive to the idea of perpaduan ummah. Only a Melayu DAP would argue so agitatedly against such a move.”

    Yup. Influenced by the DAP They are Malaysian Chinese who would kiss the Australian, British and Singapore soil. Now the Yellow Bangla (my copyrighted term Chinkgala) would include a slightly browner variant.

    Reply
  • 7. tebing tinggi  |  June 21, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    Let UMNO coming to GE14 ,thinking that the Chinese has comeback to vote BN . A lesson to be learn .

    Sarawak and two PRK has made them even more confident of Chinese vote .

    UMNO is to great to take advice .

    Reply
  • 8. HY  |  June 21, 2016 at 10:46 pm

    1) disagree, dap oso never contest last ge. apple vs apple

    2) fact remain rural chinese either dah makan dedak or rather play mahjong.

    3) reject pas n ph would benefit bn, unless the chinese choose not to vote, but tis still a gain to bn

    4) agree. u think only malay makan dedak?

    5) 25% is enough to revive mca, the useless chinese party.

    6) u really think malay (najib) is tat fool? n chinese is tat smart?

    most chinese r not interested in hudud, i suspect many malay oso dun care, only hadi, dap n their fanboy think tis is a big issue. many chinese dare to vote dap n not mca bec they believe (use to) pas + anwar would lead the battle against umno. the makan dedak chinese never wan a too arrogant dap to lead. read the writes of those above 50 years old in chinese newspaper. i suspect dap n their fanboy still cant figure out y some chinese give their vote to bn.

    Reply
    • 9. Helen Ang  |  June 22, 2016 at 2:39 am

      re: “dap oso never contest last ge. apple vs apple”

      But last election, Chinese really believed in wu xue wu, huan cheng fu, very gung ho even to the extent of painting PAS logo on their face.

      More Chinese willing to vote for PAS in GE13 b’cos DAP managed to convince them that Putrajaya was within sight.

      With Sg. Besar low turnout, still can’t tell whether Chinese now equally willing to vote PAN at the same level of support that Chinese gave to PAS.

      re: “25% is enough to revive mca, the useless chinese party”

      MCA has done more favours for the Chinese than DAP.

      re: “u really think malay (najib) is tat fool? n chinese is tat smart?”

      I think Malays were fooled by the DAP evangelistas wearing tudung Occupy Masjid, tweeting #sahur and preaching love-love-love when those munafiq were only in pursuit of the 3Gs — Gold, Self-Glory and exploiting the Gospel to ensure their own prosperity.

      I don’t think Chinese are all that smart as they believe they are (bodoh sombong). They’re willing to be led by their noses by an evangelical party.

      All that has happened since 2008 has not overall been beneficial to the Chinese community as a whole. It has only been beneficial to a select DAP leadership and their cronies,

      e.g. Papa Dapster becoming a YAB and buying cheap bungalow without swimming pool and Mama Dapster earning a salary almost matching the PM’s pay, and even her Personal Assistant can be elevated to YB (cronyism)

      re: “most chinese r not interested in hudud”

      The Sin Chew editorial believes it to be a factor. MCA and Gerakan went berserk at Hadi’s bill.

      re: “i suspect many malay oso dun care”

      Syed Saddiq’s Twitter poll early this month attracted 22,304 twits and 83 percent of his respondents voted ‘Yes’ to wanting hudud.

      re: “only hadi, dap n their fanboy think tis is a big issue”

      DAP fanboy is twisted, delusional and despicable.

      re: “many chinese dare to vote dap n not mca bec they believe (use to) pas + anwar would lead the battle against umno”

      OK

      re: “the makan dedak chinese never wan a too arrogant dap to lead. read the writes of those above 50 years old in chinese newspaper”

      OK

      re: “i suspect dap n their fanboy still cant figure out y some chinese give their vote to bn”

      Their fanboy is a bully who is full of bullshit ,)

      This is the difference between DAP Chinese and PKR Chinese, i.e. Dapsters are demented bullies. PKR Chinese supporters and PKR Chinese leaders, on the other hand, are not on my radar.

      PKR is a more multiracial party than DAP. I suppose PKR Chinese function more realistically in our multiracial environment. The

      DAP’s self-professed “colour blind”, “beyond race”, love-love-love Chinese are plain delusional.

      Reply
      • 10. What Is This  |  June 22, 2016 at 2:30 pm

        They are all delusional. Deep down you know they want regime change. Even those that vote BN would welcome regime change. They are all bran eaters lah. The difference is they eat bran serve by DAP, MCA etc. Just focus on your core supporters and stop wasting time and resouces on people who want you dead and buried.

        Reply
  • 11. g  |  June 22, 2016 at 12:33 am

    Promises of development from the government is not going to happen. They already defaulted on the 1MDB IPIC loans triggering cross defaults on other loans. Now 1MDB is getting sued by IPIC for $6.5 billion (RM26 billion).

    If they lose where are they going to get the money to pay? Najib? Rosmah?

    Reply
    • 12. Zack  |  June 22, 2016 at 8:30 am

      The London International Court of Arbitration is no way connected to the government of any jurisdiction. It is a private and not-for-profit body. They provide dispute resolution services. They don’t decide or rule on something.

      This is taken from their FAQ section:
      Can I refer my dispute to the LCIA if there is no LCIA clause in my contract?

      Arbitration and ADR are consensual processes. If one party wishes to refer a dispute to the LCIA, but the other does not, the LCIA has no jurisdiction to determine the dispute.

      Reply
      • 13. g  |  June 22, 2016 at 3:49 pm

        1MDB is now under MOF, so are you trying to say that if they lose they don’t want to pay? This may invite international sanctions

        Reply
  • 14. metabalance  |  June 22, 2016 at 9:27 am

    If you maintain the number you defined earlier – 5% BN the other 95% dived into BA pool, do you think the 5% figure has increased based on the last 2 elections in the areas? Just have the instinct it’s still the status quo ante.

    Reply
  • 15. tehtarik  |  June 22, 2016 at 9:31 am

    Bila nak masuk Islam, you self proclaimed pro perpaduan ummah bitch Helen Ang?

    Reply
    • 16. Helen Ang  |  June 22, 2016 at 2:01 pm

      When is your idol the hypocrite Hannah (pix below) going to convert to Islam?

      Reply
      • 17. LimBo  |  June 23, 2016 at 9:23 am

        let me try my profiling skills on this tehtarik:
        – Age: 26 to 34
        – Marital Status: Either divorcee or Not Married and Living with Parents
        – Traumatic relapse from Severe childhood memories probably around age of 7 to 13
        – Poor social skills due to inferiority complex
        – Education level somewhere between SPM or Diploma

        Reply
        • 18. Helen Ang  |  June 23, 2016 at 10:39 am

          He suffers from Tourette syndrome — “a neurological disorder characterized by repetitive, stereotyped, involuntary movements and vocalizations called tics”.

          Symptom … he keeps vocalizing “bitch”, “fuck” and other profanities.

          Reply

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