Posted in #NotMyPM

Sungai Kandis: Harapan haemorrhaging support

Turnout for today’s byelection in Sungai Kandis is low, projected to be below 50 percent. Harapan is no longer enjoying the maniacal support that they commanded during GE14 just a couple of months ago, where at Sungai Kandis the voter turnout was a high 86 percent.

Disillusionment with the pact of Hope & Change has set in very quickly among the duped electorate. The drop in Sungai Kandis voter turnout is indeed precipitous.

In the May 9 general election, the Harapan candidate garnered 24,000 votes. His vote share was more than double that collected by the BN candidate at only 11,500. Compare the light blue bar (Harapan) with the dark blue bar (BN) in the representative graph below.

Although the Sungai Kandis counting is yet to be concluded, the vote tally as it now stands (at around 9 o’clock) shows that Harapan, totalling 15,000 votes, is receiving almost 9,000 fewer votes today than they did on May 9 polling day.

Meanwhile the BN’s present candidate – Umno’s Lokman Adam – has notched 9,229 votes. His predecessor Kamaruzzaman Johari had obtained 11,518 votes.

Lokman is only 2,289 votes behind the BN’s GE14 candidate whereas Harapan’s Mohd Zawawi is some 9,000 votes behind his party’s GE14 candidate (deceased).

The graph below by Malaysiakini shows the byelection result as known at 8.57pm.

Compare the two charts representing elections on 9 May 2018 and 4 Aug 2018 respectively. The dates are roughly three months apart.

In the first chart, the gap between the light blue and dark blue bars is huge. In the second chart, the gap has closed considerably.

All this is set against a backdrop where Harapan is the state government and ruling Selangor in its third consecutive term.

Don’t forget too that Harapan is also the federal government where former Selangor menteri besar Azmin Ali is currently controlling the powerful Economy Ministry. Think $$$.

Lokman of Umno is very much the underdog with all resources of the Harapan incumbency (at both state and federal level) arrayed against him and where at the same time, Umno is threatened with deregistration and has had its party account frozen.

Mounting his electoral challenge against such massive disadvantages, Lokman has done well today. Why do you think that is?

READ also ‘Kit Siang tidak nafi Guan Eng Kristian’ which I posted earlier this afternoon.

Note: Will update later when official results are in.


UPDATE:

Final results

  • Harapan — 15,427 votes
  • BN — 9,585 votes

Voter turnout is a record low of 49.4 percent. The rabid interest of Harapan supporters to vote has sharply declined.

A total of 43,165 votes* were cast in GE14 on May 9. Kamaruzzaman Johari, the Umno candidate then, had received 26.7 percent of the votes.

A total of 25,282 votes were cast in today’s byelection. Umno’s Lokman Adam received 38 percent (37.9%) of the votes. Malay support for Umno is increasing.

Sungai Kandis has a substantial 28.5 percent non-Malay voters whom we can safely guess did not vote for BN either in GE14 or in today’s byelection.

* Data on the number of spoilt votes is not available in the public domain

 

 

Author:

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17 thoughts on “Sungai Kandis: Harapan haemorrhaging support

  1. This is why most people think you are a joke. You are not fooling anyone. The support for PH has actually increased in percentage terms.

  2. Helen,

    PH dapat recoup 64% dari jumlah undi yg dapat pada PRU 14.
    UMNO pula dapat 50% saja jika dicampur undi BN+PAS (dah kata ada kerjasama antara keduanya). Apa pun ia menunjukkan Ustaz Zawawi memang layak menjadi undisputed winner.

    Bagi aku, nak kata ‘haemorrhaging support’ tu tk berapa tepat. Mungkin boleh kata over-confident kot sebab menang besar sebelum ni.

    So apa dah jadi dgn Lokman, dgn bosnya Najib yg berkempen siang malam di Sg Kandis? Kenapa undi UMNO merosot 2,000? Takkan orang PAS boikot Lokman dan Najib dan UMNO SATU RATUS PERATUS kot???

    1. (a) Faktor prestasi Lokman Adam dan sambutan hambar terhadap Zawawi

      PRU14: Calon Harapan memperolehi 55.6% undi sah
      Pilihanraya kecil: Calon Harapan memperolehi 61.4% undi sah (daripada jumlah 25,109 undi; saya ketepikan bilangan undi rosak)

      Calon Harapan dapat tambahan sokongan sebanyak

        5.8 peratus

      .

      PRU14: Calon BN memperolehi 26.7% undi sah
      Pilihanraya kecil: Calon BN memperolehi 38.2% undi sah

      Calon BN dapat tambahan sokongan sebanyak

        11.5 peratus

      .

      Boleh dilihat peningkatan undi bagi BN (11.5%) lebih memberangsangkan berbanding angka bagi Harapan (5.8%).

      (b) Faktor ‘low turnout’

      Undi BN merosot sebanyak 1,933.

      Undi Harapan merosot sebanyak 8,571.

      1. Yes well done BN for losing the election with increase support. Pllease continue to lose election with better support.

      2. This is the kind of attitude prevail with umno since ge14. Half ass effort is celebrated in umno. It is a loser mind set in umno. Please continue with this strategy of losing election.

        1. not loser la. i concur with Annuar Musa’s notion that it is a victory for Umno.
          the people of sg kandis is ” fed up ” with PH and hence majority of them abstained from voting.

      3. Oklah, kita pakai you punya figures. Undi BN merosot sebanyak 1,933 sahaja.

        Agak2 Helen apa dah jadi dengan adik beradik UMNO, I mean PAS. 100% boycott Lokman, Najib, UMNO dan yg sekapal dgnnya? Sedangkan si Mursyidul Am, si Timbalan Presiden, si Setiausaha dan banyak si si si lagi semua suruh sokong UMNO. Sokong airliur aje ke?

        Aku ingat penyakit Najibul gonlah dah merebak ke Sg Kandis. Asal ada Najib, everything gone. He’s very TOXIC don’t you think?

  3. PH is in.
    Umno is just the background noise.This blog is the amplifier.
    Listen carefully.
    The monster will rise again.

  4. Wow….do people really buy your finding? So, can we conclude if full turnout, umno takes sg kandis? Is that what you are saying??

    Seriously, i think most people did not vote, cos they can’t be bothered. PRU is the main deal. Pakatan voters are smart.

    Whatever happened to umno + pas votes? that should have helped lokman easily, since pakatan voter took a break…..wanna hear your finding on this, however crappy it may be….

  5. GE14
    PH: 23998 (56%), BN/Umno: 11518 (27%), Pas: 7573 (17%), Total: 43089, Turnout (86%)

    By-election:
    PH: 15427 (62%), BN/Umno: 9585 (38%), Total 25012 (49%)

    Umno got 1933 votes less (11518 – 9585). The block of Umno 9585 votes already include votes from Pas, amount which is unknown. If we deduct this unknown votes from Pas, it means the amount of Umno votes per se would be much lower.

    Voters from both divide are not keen to vote this round as they had voted 3 months ago, hence the low turnout. But PH still secured 64% of votes this time against what they had in GE14 (15427 / 23998). But Umno only secured 50% (9585 / (11518 + 7573)).

    Knowing that voters turnout will be low, Umno and Pas should have mobilised all their supporters to vote Lokman in the name of Malay/Islam unity. Looks like Umno and Pas have failed in terms of (i) capitalising the low turnout to overwhelm PH by getting all their supporters to cast their ballots, and (ii) the war cry of Malay/Islam unity.

    1. re: “But PH still secured 64% of votes this time against […] Umno only secured 50%”

      You forget 28.5% of the Sg. Kandis voters are non Malay.

      1. re: You forget 28.5% of the Sg. Kandis voters are non Malay.

        Ok. How to count the no. of Malay votes secured by both sides? Let me assume the following based on the date here:
        https://undi.info/selangor/r18/N49

        1. Sg. Kandis total voters: 50800

        2. Malay 36500 (72%), Chinese 6000 (12%), Indian 8000 (16%)

        3. By-election turn-out: 49.4%, meaning circa 25000 ballots

        4. Result: PH 15427 (62%), BN/Umno 9585 (38%), Total 25012 (49.4% turn-out)

        5. How do assume the votes secured by both parties according to ethnic? I would assume 90% non-Malay votes went to PH and the balance 10% went to BN based on 49.4% turn-out.

        6. Non-Malay votes: PH 6200 (14000 x 49.4% x 0.9) and BN 700 (14000 x 49.4% x 0.1).

        7. Refer to (4) above for the total votes secured by both parties. Deduct (6) from (4) to get the total Malay votes received by both.

        8. Malay votes: PH 9227 (15427 – 6200), BN/Umno 8885 (9585 – 700).

        9. The share of Malay votes for both sides are about equal, i.e. 50% each?

        The above are the closest analysis that I can think of. Let me know your opinion.

        1. Helen, would you agree with my point no. 9?

          9. The share of Malay votes for both sides are about equal, i.e. 50% each?

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