DAP vociferously argues that the Malay opposition (Umno, PAS) cannot win elections unless they have multiracial support from the voting public. That’s debatable.
When combined, the total votes for Umno and PAS exceed Harapan votes – for example – in the seat contested by Pribumi federal minister Rina Harun who holds the Rural Development cabinet portfolio.
Titiwangsa parliament result GE14:
- Pribumi: 23,840 votes
- Umno (19,701) + PAS (6,845) = 26,546 votes
Rina won 47.3 percent of the votes cast (50,386) in Titiwangsa, a parliament constituency in Kuala Lumpur. Rina’s 47.3 percent is short of a popular majority.
Titiwangsa has 70.5 percent Malay voters, 17.3 percent Chinese and 9.4 percent Indian. There are many seats with the Titiwangsa profile as well as seats where Harapan won only very marginally ahead of the second-placed candidate in three-cornered fights.
Other Pribumi cabinet ministers and their GE14 parliament vote percentage:
- Maszlee Malik / Simpang Renggam: 50.7%
- Redzuan Yusof / Alor Gajah: 50.7%
- Syed Saddiq / Muar: 53.1%
- Muhyiddin Yassin / Pagoh: 55.2%
[Note: Alor Gajah and Simpang Renggam were contested by MCA and Gerakan respectively, and thus it cannot be assumed that these BN votes can be automatically transferred to Umno. Alor Gajah has 60.8 percent Malay voters and Simpang Renggam, 59.6 percent Malay voters.]
Pribumi’s Redzuan and Maszlee barely passed the 50 percent mark in popular vote. It will not require too much to swing their seats.
The huge advantage for Umno-PAS is that the next generation of new voters comprises largely Malays, and the numbers gap with low birthrate young Chinese is wide.
BELOW: It’s projected that in the year 2020, the Malaysian population will have 1.9 million Bumiputera aged 15-19. Chinese youths in the same age cohort will be a little under half million and Indians, 170,000. These 2.6 million youths are the potential first-time voters
Syed Saddiq won in a seat which has 31.5 percent Chinese voters, and Muhyiddin in a seat with 29.8 percent Chinese voters. Despite their areas having ‘so many’ Chinese or roughly three Chinese out of every 10 voters, the Pribumi popular vote in Muar (53.1%) and Pagoh (55.2%) is unconvincing, i.e. merely between three and five percent above the 50-majority line.
Umno-PAS are good for seats above 70-75 percent Malay voters and competitive in seats 60-70 percent Malay voters.
We must not forget either that Chinerse are over-registered to vote (in proportion to the community ratio in the general population) and also represent a very high turnout on polling day.
Mahathir himself did not enjoy a comfortable victory either. He had 18,954 votes in Langkawi. There Umno and PAS together had 15,573 votes, i.e. putting Pribumi ahead of Umno-PAS only by 3,381 votes in the parliament seat held by no less than the prime minister himself.
‘PAS and Umno’s blooming ta’awun siyasi relationship’ — read HERE
Another high water mark in Malay unity
Never since the rebellion of 1946 have the Malays been this united. Yesterday Umno and PAS shook hands and called curtains on BN.
So it’s Umno-PAS on one side, and DAP & Gang on the other. If GE15 is to be called in five years’ time, Mahathir will be 98. Anything and everything can happen in the interim – all depending on an old man’s state of health.
Mahathir’s political adversary, however, is nowhere near as volatile. On the contrary, relationship between Umno and PAS will only get stronger with time. Umno-PAS are appealing to an overlapping Malay Muslim constituency. This complementary demographic factor allows both parties to strengthen each other.
BELOW: The ugly face of hateful DAP politics
Their message on joint vested interests – Malay rights, Muslim rights – mutually enhance their one cohesive, consolidated message. Such is not the case with DAP and Pribumi who have voter bases that are inherently hostile to the other.
The message that DAP and Pribumi send to their respective followers contradict the political intent of the other. For example, DAP supporters demand “equality”. This demand neccesitates the negation of Article 153 of the federal constitution on the Malay special position. They also want “meritocracy”, ergo no more NEP-like affirmative action programmes.
Chinese demands made through DAP such as equality, meritocracy, etc rile up the Malays who have objected to (one particular episode of) Guan Eng placing Mandarin above the national language, objected to acceptance of the UEC, objected to opening the doors of Mara colleges and UiTM to everybody, objected to diluting the authority of Islamic government agencies … the list of objections goes on and on.
Pribumi has had to recently convene a Bumiputera congress to allay Malay anxiety. The event pissed off Dapsters who have bought into DAP’s New Malaysia promise of “Beyond Race”.
Whatever DAP does to please Dapsters will upset the Protuns. Whatever Pribumi does to please the Protuns will upset Dapsters. This vital factor of mutual antagonism must not be underestimated for its role of corroding the toxic Harapan alliance.
Harapan are disparate parties with no shared ideology and pulling in four different directions of the compass. PAS and Umno are, on the other hand, almost interchangeable. The former emphasizes on Islam, the latter on Malays. Hence Islam Melayu … Melayu Islam … satu halatuju.
The combined PAS and Umno GE14 popular vote for the Seri Setia state seat in Selangor was 32.89 percent. In the recent Seri Setia by-election, PAS garnered 41.4 percent of the popular vote with help from Umno during the campaign. That’s nearly a 10 percent improvement.
Malay support for Umno-PAS (as one entity) is more than the sum of its parts. But support for Harapan can only decrease as election promises go unfulfilled, expectations are unmet, when our currency weakens, inflation and unemployment rise, foreign investments dry up and the cost of living skyrockets.
Umno-PAS, growing closer and stronger by the day, have a chance of taking back Putrajaya sooner than you imagine.
28 thoughts on “Can Umno+PAS win GE15 on Malay votes? Yes”
agree, statistics usually don’t lie..
That is the reason those who oppose go to town trying go belittle such cooperation. They know that many seats would have been won by either PAS or UMNO if the cooperation goes on to next elction.
Dr Wee from MCA said thatvthe cooperation alienates tge non malays. Maybe he is blind to the fact that almost entire Chinese community has already abandon BN in last election. And not mainly because of 1mdb.
Vast majority of Chinese had rejwcted UMNO led BN even in 2008. And ever since 1959 more than half of Chinese has always voted DAP and Gerakam( before it joined Perikatan)
So UMNO needs not worry any more. Dont waste time to persuade the Chinese. No need to ttend ChineseNew Year gathering anymore. After all, chinese hates UMNO so much.
The truth is that Chinese rejected BN as it is led by UMNO( a malay led party). That is the real reason. For decades, UMNO stood in theor way .
People ask why PAS ” berlembut” with UMNO. There are several reasons. The main reason is that PAS too ” terduduk” in PRU 14. Hadi boasted that PAS was the king maker in Selangor. But the reality is that PAS performance in Selangor is worse than that of UMNO.
Reality sets in. PAS too realises that only through UMNO, it can ( togetjer with UMNO) win seats . And statistics show that as an example if PAS did not contest un Titiwangsa, Lembah Pantai, Balik Pulau, Raub, UMNO woyld have won.
In fact I believe Melaka, Perak, NS, Johor will remain UMNO fortress had both PASand UMNO cooperates
PH and those Malay politician like Azmin, Tun , and PH MBs know that. And as goes the saying ” a picture is worth a thousand word”.
Ever wonder why Anwar does not choose Pwrmatanh Pauh. Instead he chooses Port Dickson.
Because he knows the mood of the Malays. He may not make it in Pwrmatang Pauh
Good that you have established the findings of “Umno-PAS are good for seats above 70-75 percent Malay voters and competitive in seats 60-70 percent Malay voters.”
The next questions are:-
1) How many seats are there with 70-75% Malay majority out of the total 222?
2) No doubt currently Umno + Pas collectively command approx. 75% of total Malay votes. But the next election is still 5 years away. Can Umno + Pas maintain that level of support until 2023? Pre GE-2008, MCA used to think that the Chinese supported them overwhelmingly. Same as MIC. Look at the seat count of both parties compare against their peak in GE-2004. How sure are we that the Malays will continue to support Umno, assuming the support for Pas remains constant? Will the fate suffered by MCA and MIC falls on Umno?
(1) (i) The next decennial population census will be conducted in 2020. Electoral demographics will be clearer by 2021 when the Stats Dept make public their records. The figures for years in between are only estimates and projections.
(ii) Also depends on Umno & PAS initiative to carry out voter registration and ability to mobilize.
(iii) Situation in Sabah & Sarawak uncertain, what with the push for M63.
(2) (i) I’m confident Umno + PAS will increase their level of support while DAP will lose theirs due to disappointed supporters becoming disillusioned when the great overhyped HOPE fails to materialize.
(ii) Shamshul Anuar is correct to point out that Chinese voters have never overwhelmingly supported MCA even during the party’s best years. Some analysts have pointed out this fact but their studies are academic and not made known to or reached the wider public.
(iii) DAP propaganda is very loud, deceitful and aggressive. This is a disservice to the Chinese in obscuring the real sociopolitical situation. MCA’s reading of our various political crises has been more truthful, fair, realistic and forward looking. Najib’s unpopularity and 1MDB have created a lot of noise that has drowned the trend of Malay unity.
I stand by what I say about Umno + PAS being able to win elections. The signs are very clear. The Chinese hyper-partisanship and politics of hate blinds them to an objective assessment of reality.
re: I stand by what I say about Umno + PAS being able to win elections.
What was your prediction of the 14th GE (May 2018)? Did you predicted that BN would have retained power?
Yes, I’d thought BN would somehow manage to scrape through by the skin of its teeth. I blame Najib for not treating GE14 as life-or-death battle.
Pakatan Rakyat started winning in 2008 when they adopted the ‘straight fight’ strategy. In 2018, BN suffered from split votes.
Now that Umno and PAS have learned to adopt the identical strategy avoiding multi-cornered fights, what worked for Harapan will soon be working for Umno-PAS.
you also mentioned before about malay tsunami for PRU14 will bury PH and Tun.
Utterly wrong and lousy analysis you had.
good to stand by your statement. coz the results normally turn out to be what you stand by. 😂😂😂😂😂
“tsunami” … the campaign of hate against Najib & Rosmah was very effective & some Umno voters (like Never Trumpers) stayed home.
75 percent of Malay voters collectively supported Umno & PAS. Unfortunately the two parties split the votes in three or multi-cornered fights.
Altogether Pribumi, PAN, PKR (and DAP) could not scrape together between them a quarter of the Malay votes. Harapan however had 95 percent of the Chinese and 90 percent of the Indian votes.
GE15 will be different if Umno & PAS engineer straight fights — the identical formula that worked for Pakatan from 2008 onwards.
I think no point emphasizing on the potential collaboration/merger of Umno + Pas to collectively secure 75% of Malay votes. The truth was for GE14, both contested as separate entities and split the Malay votes. No doubt about it.
Whether both can really consolidate for GE15 in 2023, it is speculative. Even if both do, whether they can secure that same 75% is also speculative. Not to mention PH have 5 years to strengthen their Malay vote bank from the current level of 25%.
Political dynamics may change. I am more inclined to think the share of 75% Malay votes by both Umno + Pas (whether as separate parties or single platform) will drop due to reasons below:-
1. The current collaboration between Umno + Pas is made at the top leadership level. How sure are we the grassroots level will accept it? Already we can see the top brass of Umno rejected such collaboration like KJ, Tok Pa and Anifah Aman.
2. We have 5 years to go until the next GE in 2023. Incumbents Malay parties like PKR, PPBM and Amanah have vast resources at federal and various state levels. Whereas for Umno + Pas, they are limited at state levels (Perlis, Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu). If PH play their cards right, they can erode the current 75% Malay base of Umno + Pas.
3. A collaboration of Umno + Pas will alienate themselves from the non-Malay and East Msia voters. Without looking at stats, I am guessing Umno + Pas will not win power at federal level assuming an 80% Malay support + negligible non-Malay and East Msia nationwide.
I am not dismissing the return of Umno. They still have chance. Miracle does happen. But it will take longer time. 5 years from now is simply too soon. When Anwar was imprisoned in 1998, no one expected he can make a return today. Whan Tun M step down in 2003, no one expected he will return as PM today. How long these events took to materialise?
At the forefront of it all is Islam — see bar garphs in next post.
Umno and PAS grassroot members share the same religion, language, culture and customs plus years and years of BTN and Mahathir being paranoid about the Chinese, and telling Malays to beware of Chines. Dapsters and Protuns have different religion, language, culture and customs plus the former has hrboured years and years of NEP, Article 153 resentments.
PAS and Umno at lower levels will thaw wrt the other over the next several years.
DAP and Pribumi alliance is similarly cultivated at top level. Already the DAP grassroots revolting against Mahathir’s grab of the lion’s share of the war spoils. Over the next several years, the relationship between DAP and Pribumi can only get worse and worse.
re: At the forefront of it all is Islam
Sounds like you really believe that both Umno + Pas are sincere to uphold Islam. For me, Islam is just a front or theme used by them to justify their political activities and entice the people to support them. Same like PKR (reformasi agenda) and DAP (Chinese interest or Malaysian Malaysia).
Let us be real. In politics, politicians look for power and wealth. Islam, reformasi etc are just tools for them.
We will see in 2023 (GE15) if the combination of Umno + Pas can really secure them 80% share of Malay votes and whether they can win the majority in parliament and form the next federal government.
What if the Pakatan government redelineates the electoral boundaries to roughly equal number of voters each before GE15?
They can’t. They don’t have 2/3 majority in parliament.
BN did not have two thirds majority before GE14 and they were still able to redelineate the electoral constituencies before GE14.
Without a two-thirds majority, they cannot increase or reduce the number of constituencies – i.e. 222 parliamentary constituencies but they did change the size of each constituency and renamed some constituencies, in many cases in the face of objections by the constituents.
Like Tony Pua’s constituency has 150,000 voters but what if the Pakatan government reduces its size to say 50,000 constituents and increases the size of surrounding constituencies.
Also, what if they increase the size of rural, Malay majority constituencies to say 50,000, thus reducing the number of rural constituencies, whilst reducing the size of urban constituencies so that there are more urban constituencies?
Point taken on the matter of redrawing.
But there are limitations, i.e. location. Not much one can do about the FT’s all urban constituencies, for example, short of actually increasing the number of seats.
You can’t take away rural wards as they still need to be anchored to its location, e.g. Sabak Bernam is Sabak Bernam. The local councils & district offices are there. If you expand the boundary of a rural area, it’s still neighbouring another rural area.
Domino effect? Rural seat eats into semi-rural seat eating into semi-urban seat and then bingo! reach the targeted urban seat … 😉
OK! So the rules do not allow the EC to expand the district and electoral constituency of Sabak Bernam southwards to include Tanjong Karang, Kuala Selangor and Bestari Jaya.
I suppose without a two-thirds majority, they cannot replace the first past the post electroral system with a proportional representation based one.
On another note, what do you think of a near-future scenario being predicted by blogger Raggie Jessy (The Third Force) – is it likely or unlikely?
“Part of that plan involves the crossing over of 54 MPs from PKR and UMNO aligned to him and Azmin into PPBM by or before November 2018.”
“TTF: Dr Mahathir Mohamad has taken a multi-pronged approach to turn Malaysia into a one-party dictatorship.”
With all the politicking going on right now, especially related to the “PD Move”, the infighting between the Azmin and Rafizi factions within PKR, issues with regards Sabah & Sarawak and so forth, it looks like this is distracting members of the present government from doing much to move Malaysia forward especially economically.
BTW. The ringgit’s weakening against the U.S. dollar is related to the U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY), since several other currencies have weakened in similar manner vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar since mid April 2018.
U.S. dollar to the Malaysian ringgit
So the ringgit’s weakening against the U.S. dollar was due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against other currencies.
However, the DXY has been dropping recently – i.e. the U.S. dollar has weakene, so the ringgit appears to have strengthened a bit against the U.S. dollar lately.
It’ a bit like sitting in a train and another train flies past your train at a higher speed and it appears that your train is moving backwards.
it cut boh ways.
As an example, Baling has a sizable voters. If Baling is divided into 2 parliamentary seats, it is for UMNO and PAS to grab.
There is a logic in redelineation Some constituents are so big though sparsely populated
Its great that you are always prepared with currents stats on political scenario.but somehow i feel disgusted that our UMNO oxford educated rembau MP and his ‘intelligent’ gang would not present us with such analysis.he keeps harping on gone chinese votes.kinda pissed off with their ‘reality’ checks konon.
Anyway keep it up helen.too bad that you have to do the job meant for the ‘right thinking🤨’ ex presidential umno candidate and his liberal team.they lack the real umno spirit n teamwork n take the easy way out blaming only najib.
One professor by the name Atory lamented the fact that Khairy was not chosen as UMNO no 1 . He claimed UMNO rejected Khairy as they view him not having enough experirnce.
Atory is wrong in hiscassesment. Khairy was rejected as UMNO members feel he is ” lalang” who underestimate the importam e of malay votes to UMNO. Khairy believes that changing UMNO faces( meaning less defending malays but reaching to non Malays) will revive UMNO.
I believe the effect is suicidal. If Kjairy is elected as UMNO no 1, his obsession with bringing the non malay votes will instead drive the malays out from UMNO.
And for UMNO, use to the maximum the good image of current Ketua Pemuda. He is religious yet urbane, a doctorate. Woo the young malay voters.
Do remember many malays are still not registered voters. Such inactivity is glaring where Chine forms the bulk of Penang voters ALTHOUGH they are not the majority in Penang.
And despite many rejecting PAS and UMNO ties, ignore that. Remember UMNO lost in Chenderiang only with 39 votes and Pinang Tunggal with 127 votes.
Had PAS not contested there, UMNO still rulee Perak . And its share of seats in Penang sjould be at least 11 instead of miserable 2.
Good that you continue to hallucinate.
Syiok sendiri is also good.
PAS + Umno = gandingan mantap.
Thats why PH won PRU14.
We hope PAS + Umno continue to do so.
But will Umno still be around come PRU15? 😂😂😂😂😂
Ya so true, number of umno mp quiting is getting higher. Tok pah has quit. 54 to 50 in 4 months. By next year i predict 50 to 40 and in 2 years my graph show me 40 to 20. In 2 years helen will be supporting taliban pas cause no more umno.
well written helen….bravo..
It is good to learn stats and odds. Still too early to have a conducive pointer to the next electoral outcome at this point taking a page out of the recent GE14. All pundits and analysts were saying BN cannot possibly lose.
There are Malay voters who are objective in their assessment of the current government as opposed to those who are prejudiced by their race-centric predispositions. So the jury is still out there how the Malay votes will go.
Yes. the analysis right on the dot. Also the SST tax is putting the clock back a no of years ,making shop keepers happy using 3 bookkeeping accounts.Money will go into the wrong pockets not to the rakyat via BRIM.
UMNO loses another MP, and supreme council member with the highest votes – Tok Pa.
UMNO now only has 50 MPs, the same as PKR.
Helen, remember I told you one by one UMNO MPs are abandoning the party?
This is the latest strike at the heart of UMNO.
Enjoy the news.
Trust me, even this is not gonna wake them up. The whole world is moving forward, and this group is still stuck with race and religion, their only agenda…..they fail to see the new age people are connected to the world, and they still want to go around fooling with senseless agenda. Until now, I still fail to see how Malays and Islam is threatened, as per Pas/Umno claim.
Berita tergempar again!!!
Another UMNO MP and Supreme Council member, Anifah Aman, quits UMNO.
UMNO now has only 49 MPs, from a high of 54 MPs in GE-14!
Helen, what’s going on? Help UMNO! Don’t let them die!
Your analysis never fail to impress me.Keep it up Helen.
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