Posted in #NotMyGomen

Semenyih — Harapan’s 9k majority evaporated just like that

Harapan won Semenyih nine months ago with a thumping majority of some 9,000 votes (see result details below).

And that huge GE14 majority went poof! Like a mirage of magic dragon breath, it simply evaporated.

Harapan’s strength is not real but merely smoke and mirrors.

Without the foundation of real Malay support, the Harapan government cannot last. How can our country be governed legitimately by a minority administration since Malaysia’s two biggest opposition parties are semua Melayu?

It looks like the PAS votes in Semenyih transferred neatly to Umno today — see below.

According to DAP’s own analyst Ong Kian Ming, 76 percent of Malay voters supported Umno and PAS in GE14. Presently the ratio of Malay opposition support has risen even higher than the three-quarters previously.

Semenyih is a true barometer of Malay sentiments. A majority of the majority race reject Harapan.

Author:

I have no Faceook or Twitter.

3 thoughts on “Semenyih — Harapan’s 9k majority evaporated just like that

  1. BN won with 50.44% of 39,218 total votes in the byelection, versus PH which won with 50.76% of 46572 total votes in GE14.

    This represents a 5.18 percentage points swing away from PH in this very much marginal constituency.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semenyih_(state_constituency)

    However, all PH needs to do to win back Semenyih is to allow more gentrification – i.e. construction of more condos and gated community landed properties in Semenyih for middle class and upper middle class buyers from the Klang Valley who tend to vote PH, to move into and outnumber the Semenyih born and bred residents and PH will kow tim Semeyih kau kau for PH.

    The current traffic congestion in Semenyih won’t be a problem since by then these folks who can afford them will be able to fly to KL and PJ in their flying cars.

    Watch, wait and see whether PH either listens to complaints over development by pak ciks and mak ciks in Semenyih or ignores them and allows further development and concrete jungles unabated.

  2. That stupid move against PAS, publicity stunt by Syed Saddiq and abuse of power by the attorney general office are among the factors that had helped BN. Or you can see it this way – a loss by Bersatu. How could one have lost a comfortable previous margin of 9,000?

    So what is PAN’s comment? Mat Syabu & company had claimed at least half of PAS’ previous supporters had gone to PAN. So where are they?

    1. “How could one have lost a comfortable previous margin of 9,000?”

      I don’t consider the majority of votes reveived over the nearest rival as an accurate measure of shift in voter sentiment between different elections, especially when the numbers of total valid votes in each election are different and in the case of Semenyih, a different set of parties contested. Instead, I prefer to look at percentages of vote won by each party in differene elections.

      In GE14 it was a battle between BN, Pakatan PAS and PSM and Pakatan got 23,428 votes out of 46,151 valid votes, whilst BN got 14,464 votes, PAS got 6,966 and PSM got 1,293 votes. So yes, Pakatan had an 8,964 lead over its nearest rival BN.

      In the 2 March 2019 byelection, PAS did not contest and supported BN, and BN got 19,780 votes out of 38,518 valid votes, Pakatan got 17,866, PSM got 847 and Kuan Chee Heng got 725 votes. So BN had a 1,914 majority over its nearest rival Pakatan.

      On the other hand, in terms of percentage of votes received in GE14, Pakatan got 50.76%, BN 31.34%, PAS 15.09% and PSM 2.8% out of 46,151 valid votes.

      So in GE14, Pakatan won marginally over percentages of votes received by BN and PAS combined – i.e. 50.75% vs 46.43% of valid votes, ignoring PSM.

      PAS did not contest in the 2 March 2019 Semenyih byelection and BN received 50.44% of the 38,518 valid votes versus Pakatan which got 45.58%, PSM 2.16% and Kuan Chee Heng 1.82% of votes.

      So BN saw its percentage vote share increase by 50.44% – 31.34% = 19.10 percentage points, whilst Pakatan saw its percentage vote share drop by 45.58% – 50.76% = (5.18) – i.e. minus 5.18 percentage points.

      So where did that whopping 19.10 percentage point gain by BN come from?

      Assuming that in the byelection, BN received all of PAS’ 15.09% vote share in GE14, that leaves BN with a 50.44% – 31.34% – 15.09% = 4.01 percentage points.

      The above 4.10 percentage points gain could have come from former Pakatan voters in GE14, from BN or Pakatan voters who did not vote in GE14 or from former Pakatan voters in GE14 who did not vote on the Semenyih byelection.

      Anyway, Semenyih has been a marginal seat in the 2018, 2013 and 2008 general elections with the winner receiving less that 55% of valid votes, with BN and earlier the Alliance winning Semenyih in all elections since 1959, mostly with BN receiving over 60% or even over 70% of the vote.

      The Pakatan win in GE14 was thus an aberration, though the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat could have won in Semenyih in 2013, had PSM not contested and received 15.19% of the vote, which when added to the 35.92% Pakatan/PKR received, would have likely pushed Pakatan/PKR’s vote share to 51.11% enabling it to win Semenyih in 2013. PAS was part of Pakatan Rakyat back then.

      However, with further development of high-density, high-rise condos and of luxury landed properties in Semenyih, I forsee an increase in the proportion of Pakatan voters in Semenyih, resulting it it remaining a marginal seat which will swing between BN and Pakatan in future general elections and byelections until it eventually becomes a Pakatan stronghold, as Pakatan voters eventually outnumber BN and PAS voters.

      Thus it would be in the interest of the Pakatan state government of Selangor to allow further gentrification of Semenyih to continue until Semenyih becomes a concrete jungle filled with middle class and upper-middle class residences.

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