Ummah sudahpun berhimpun dan sedia melangkah ke arah satu citra yang baru …
Bulat air kerana pembetung, bulat manusia kerana muafakat
“Bangsa Malaysia yang wujud tanpa mana-mana sandaran identiti kaum dan agama hanya menjuruskannya kepada sebuah negara yang liberal dan sekular” — Aminuddin Yahaya, Presiden Isma
Gandingan PAS-Umno tegas menolak liberalisme dan sekularisme yang dibawa DAP.
BELOW: ‘Dr Zakir Naik — Tiger of Islam’ T-shirts sold in the vicinity of PWTC during the recent weekend’s Himpunan Penyatuan Ummah #HPU914
Dishonorable government sitting in Putrajaya
Harapan had scraped through on a thin margin of victory in GE14. Its four coalition parties – PKR, DAP, Pribumi and PAN (Amanah)- collectively obtained only 45.56 percent of the total vote. Although Harapan has a plurality of the popular vote, it is still far short of an absolute majority.
The following data – see below – was collated by M. Moniruzzaman and Kazi Fahmida Farzana in their academic paper titled ‘The 14th General Election in Malaysia: End of an epoch, and beginning of a new?’
Moniruzzaman is Assoc. Prof. of Political Science at IIUM while Kazi Fahmida Farzana is visiting senior lecturer at UUM’s School of International Studies. Their research was published in International Islamic University Malaysia journal, the Intellectual DIscourse, 26:1 (2018) 207–228
A simple majority in parliament requires 112 seats. Harapan barely winged it with their 113 seats collected on the night of 9 May 2018.
Today however, after absorbing a variety of frogs, the four Harapan parties now have altogether 130 MPs. But this bigger number of seats in Dewan Rakyat is nonetheless not the real mandate from the rakyat.
On election night after the vote counting, Umno’s parliament seat tally was 54. Today Umno has 38 MPs remaining after mass defections.
The party has lost 16 MPs who defected and thus betraying the rakyat’s mandate. Two of the 14 – namely the Kimanis and Bukit Gantang YBs – have become independent reps while the remaining 12 ex-Umno MPs frogged into Pribumi.
Anifah Aman’s win in Kimanis has been declared null and void by the election court following a successful petition, and there will be a byelection.
GE14 result tables 2, 3 & 4 below are taken from Moniruzzaman‘s paper.
From the tabulations above, it’s seen that Umno is overall the most popular party with 2.55 million votes.
DAP comes in second to Umno; it is the Harapan party with the strongest base, receiving 2.1 million votes.
• Umno — 2,548,251
• DAP — 2,098,068
• PKR — 2,096,776
• PAS — 2,041,580
• Pribumi — 696,087
Comparing between the two Malay parties, Pribumi’s vote bank is a little over a quarter of Umno’s.
Comparing between the two Muslim parties, Amanah’s vote bank is a little under a third of PAS’s.
Harapan will only retain Penang and Selangor
Umno deputy president Mat Hasan believes the Umno-PAS combo will be able to win nine states in the next general election.
At present Umno and PAS rule four states.
If only the two parties had cooperated on 10 May 2018, they would have won Perak. Together Umno and PAS had 30 Aduns (27 + 3) vs Harapan’s 29 — see results table below.
The situation on election night 2018 in Kedah was a virtual deadlock with Umno and PAS having 18 Aduns (3 + 15) combined vs Harapan’s also 18.
If a snap election were to be called tomorrow, Umno and PAS will recover Perak and Kedah.
Harapan is a wobbly government that only obtained 45.6 percent of the popular vote.
Its hold on voter allegiance is shaky. Moreover Harapan has little traction among Malays.
Malay voter loyalty is spread as below where I’ve quoted GE14 figure estimates provided by Sin Chew:
- BN — 35-40% (mainly Umno)
- PAS — 30-33%
- Harapan — 25-30% (PKR, PAN, Pribumi)
Umno and PAS are stronger paired than the sum total of their individual parts. Each is a force multiplier for the other party.
Hence Mat Hasan is confident that Umno will be able to recover Malacca, Negri Sembilan and Johor in the next election with the help of PAS and the BN satellites.
Every state in the peninsula, even Penang, has a Malay-majority population. So the next election will be decided by the Malay vote, including those of the new cohort of 18 year olds.
The electoral map below is a hypothetical reconfiguration of parliament seats that could have been won by Umno-PAS if they had not split their votes but instead engaged in a straight fight with Harapan.