… manakala BN letak calon Cina (PRU12-14).
Kerusi parlimen Tanjung Piai dibentuk ketika persempadanan semula dijalankan di Johor pada 2003.
Tanjung Piai menjadi rebutan antara DAP dan MCA satu lawan satu dalam pilihanraya-pilihanraya umum tahun 2004, 2008 dan 2013 — lihat jadual keputusan di bawah.
Dalam PRU14 tahun lepas, DAP mengambil satu langkah ke belakang bagi memberi laluan kepada Pribumi untuk bertanding di Tanjung Piai.
Ia kerana DAP menganggap Melayu parti Mahathir lebih berwibawa berbanding Melayu liberal DAP (jenis Syahredzan dan Dyana).
Dalam pilihanraya kecil yang akan datang ini pula, MCA mungkin diminta untuk mengundur supaya ruang boleh dibuka bagi Umno bertanding.
Ia kerana gandingan Umno-PAS telah berjaya memperolehi momentum hebat ibarat ‘batu menggolek turun bukit’ (terjemahan sebuah peribahasa Inggeris) dalam tiga pilihanraya kecil berturut-turut sebelum ini.
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Tidak wujud masalah apabila Pribumi ganti DAP bagi pihak Harapan di Tanjung Piai pada 2018.
Justeru itu, ada apa dengan Dapsters – yang kini sedang kuat mengejek dan mencemuh MCA sebagai “running dog” – andaikata betul BN mahu mempertaruhkan wakil Umno di Tanjung Piai 2019?
Bukankah DAP yang terlebih dahulu tunduk kepada Pribumi? Ish, kamulah paling hipokrit!
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Helen Ang 
Helen,
The voters composition of Tanjung Piai is Malay – 57%, Chinese 42% and Indian 1% based on GE2018 results.
Based on the candidates selection below (by ethnic), what would be your estimate of the share of Malay and Chinese votes that will be secured by both sides? For simplicity, ignore the negligible 1% Indian votes.
1) PH – PPBM (Malay candidate) vs BN – Umno + Pas (Malay)
2) PH – PPBM (Malay) vs BN – MCA (Chinese)
3) PH – DAP (Malay) vs BN – Umno + Pas (Malay)
4) PH – DAP (Malay) vs BN – MCA (Chinese)
I’m certain it’ll be (1).
Umno sure win.
By how much, dunno. Hoping for a landslide.
yes you are right, sure menang one
Helen,
I am asking you to give an estimate of the share of votes expected to be secured by both sides based on the 4 candidates mixture above.
Not asking you to predict the ethnicity and party of candidate from both sides.
helen,
The sentiment among Malays is that they will no longer vote for MCA in malay majority area.
If UMNO is so spineless to let MCA contest in Tanjung Piai, then UMNO must accept reality that the BN candidate from MCA will likely lose the election.
Why is it that UMNO must feel that by allowing Chinese to represent the Malay majority area , then UMNO is deemed not racist?
No malays won in DAP CEC election? so what?
I excpect BN will win with 4) DAP (Malay) vs BN – MCA (Chinese) because that happened before when the DAP Malay candidate lost to BN.
It appears to me that Tanjung Piai Malays put BN ahead of race and religion and BN-MCA is strong in Tanjung Piai, even in GE14 where they lost to Pakatan-Pribumy by a whisker, due to PAS splitting the vote but now with PAS saying that they will back a BN candidate, irrespective or race, it is not good news for Pakatan in Tanjung Piai.