Monday … July 13 … a day of reckoning for Geng Sheraton. Hmm, any surprises in store?
Today is a pivotal day in parliament. But whatever happens in the Dewan this afternoon will not substantially change the shape of tomorrow to make our time afterwards any much different from yesterday.
As it stood on Sunday July 12, our two-party political system comprised Perikatan vs Harapan. Each side is a three legged stool. In order of strength, they are Umno-PAS-GPS vs DAP-PKR-Amanah. Tomorrow it’s still Umno vs DAP.
BELOW: The BN brand is still good and its logo familiar and easily recognizable; the Harapan logo meanwhile looks like a Star Trek badge
In the BLUE corner
I’ve omitted Pribumi as one of the three stool legs because Umno is quite correct to insist on continuing to contest all its traditional seats. Following this strategy, Pribumi is redundant to Team Conservative because Mahathir’s party is in reality just a weak frog stew.
On election night 9 May 2018, Pribumi technically won only 12 parliament seats (although the number is often quoted at 13).
Wan Saiful Wan Jan, a Pribumi supreme council member, admitted as much (to the ‘12’ figure) in his recent ISEAS monograph titled ‘Why Did Bersatu Leave Pakatan Harapan?‘ — see Page 14 scanned below.
Note: I’ve explained before why it is really twelve seats and not thirteen, read HERE.
Pribumi depended on non Malay help
Mahathir’s party won half of their parliament seats relying on PKR-DAP’s non Malays to push them across the finish line.
One of Pribumi’s original 12 parliament seats was Tanjung Piai which the party has since relinquished to BN by a landslide in last year’s byelection.
Of Pribumi‘s remaining 11 original seats, five of them – Langkawi, Jerlun, Titiwangsa, Kubang Pasu and Kuala Pilah – have above 70 percent Malay voters. You can say Pribumi won these parliament seats on the strength of Malay support.
However, the other half dozen of Pribumi’s original parliament seats have on average 30 percent Chinese voters.
- Sri Gading — 65% Malay to 33% Chinese voters
- Muar 67 : 32
- Simpang Renggam 60 : 31
- Pagoh 66 : 30
- Alor Gajah 61 : 25
- Tambun 67 : 20
Let’s take for example Muar which is Syed Saddiq’s parliamentary constituency. Its electorate is 66.7 percent Malay and 31.5 percent Chinese. DAP strategist Liew Chin Tong told his party members in Johor, “We must also do everything within our ability to ensure that our closest ally Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman is returned as MP for Muar …”.
In the same breath Chin Tong added, “We must also [… be] trying our best to cause the defeat of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in Pagoh”. Muhyiddin Yassin’s longtime Johor seat comprises an electorate that is 66 percent Malay, 29.8 percent Chinese and 3.8 percent Indian. In other words, more than one third of Pagoh voters are non Malay.
While Muhyiddin is personally popular, one can’t say the same for his Pribumi colleagues the former Flying Car cabinet minister who is the Alor Gajah MP, and ex-Black Shoes minister who is Simpang Renggam MP.
Chinese voters in Alor Gajah and Simpang Renggam make up one quarter and a little less than one-third of the electorate respectively. Maszlee Kasut Hitam and Redzuan Kereta Terbang are most unpopular with Cina DAP who will not be voting for both these fellas in a snap election nor in GE15.
BELOW: St Paul’s United Methodist Church jokingly offers Sunday morning “riots” instead of a Sunday service
In the RED corner: Why DAP stronger than PKR
“Of the 113 seats won by PH, Keadilan had the biggest share with 48 seats. Second was DAP with 42, followed by Bersatu with 12 and Amanah with 11.” — Wan Saiful Wan Jan, Pribumi exco
PKR had 48 vs DAP’s 42 MPs in the immediate aftermath of the last general election. Today however, while the DAP-42 remains intact, PKR has dwindled to 38.
In a snap election or GE15, more seats are likely to be lost by PKR compared to the DAP’s own potential losses.
Both PKR and DAP are multiracial parties but the latter is Chinese chauvinist and has its “95 percent” fixed deposit whereas PKR does not command such a monolithic voting bloc among any of the races.
Secondly, the DAP is the sole peninsular party that is identifiable to the Christians. There are no other parties to vie with DAP for the Christian vote in Semenanjung’s 165 parliament seats although it’s a different story in Sabah and Sarawak.
By comparison, PKR has only a small share of the Muslim support that is also split among Umno, PAS, Pribumi and Amanah.
BELOW: Some of the American blue states have prohibited mass gatherings but exempted BLM protests (“riots”) from the ban; hence the joke above by St Paul’s that their church is holding Sunday morning riots rather than Sunday service
Calon PRU14 DAP kebanyakannya Kristian — Amran Ahmad
The DAP hardcore are almost as demented as their namesake Democrats in the USA where a self-proclaimed ‘moral’ minority wants to bludgeon the majority with double-standard accusations of racism, bigotry, cruelty and xenophobia.
Thank goodness conservative Asian and Muslim countries have not (yet) been hijacked by this Cult of Woke which is so pervasive among American progressives suffering from acute Trump Derangement Syndrome.
There is no reason for Buddhists and Hindus to be in thrall to the DAP. Whatever happens today in parliament, you must remember that the power dynamics are unchanged — DAP vs Umno are each still the anchor party on either side.
All four of the DAP reps seated at the latest Pakatan-Plus meeting (above) are Chinese even though DAP claims itself to be a multiracial party. Observe that their umbrella coalition has no place for Indians at the discussion table.
Amran Ahmad, who is the son of the late DAP vice chairman Ahmad Nor, reveals the following about his former party (Amran was a DAP member from 2009 to 2018):
“Majoriti calon-calon DAP pada PRU14 […] adalah beragama Kristian. Yang India bukan Hindu, yang Cina bukan Buddha tapi kebanyakannya Kristian. Jadi, kita faham […] agama apa yang mereka akan bela sangat.” — see Amran’s Facebook entry posted on 1 April 2019.
Amran was a DAP insider of some ten years’ standing. Is there any reason for Hindus and Buddhists to disbelieve him?
Helen Ang 
i doubt if umno pas can do it alone, what if bersatu choose to stand in every umno pas vs ph constituency?
ph multiracial based make it easier to allocate seat among the 3 parties, non malay, mix n malay, while pn malay based make them all wanting the same malay majority constituency.
malay / non malay majority seat wont make any diff, so the main battle is still the mix constituency where non malay voters is less than 20%, which in the past was umno stronghold.
dap is the antithesis why umno can continue to survive, hence yr umno vs dap can only make sense in this context, the fight is always among the malay, unless we chinese start breeding like rabbit.
I mean Muafakat doesn’t need Pribumi specifically.
Of course GPS remains the kingmaker — I did include Sarawak MPs as the third leg of the Team A stool.
MCA & MIC will naturally cling on to Umno’s coattails — that’s why I said the BN logo is still good.
But both these parties will never again achieve the old prominence they used to have when MCA president sat at the right hand of BN chairman.
To your points,
1) re: the mixed constituency where non Malay vote is less than 20%, which in the past was Umno stronghold
Chinese voter strength already stretched to the max at 95%. Chinese voters cannot boycott BN any harder in GE15 than you all did in GE14.
2) Is it DAP vs Umno, or is it PKR-Amanah vs Umno?
I see what you mean by the coalition allocation of seats according to voter composition being more pigeon-holed for Harapan.
I agree with your hypothesis up to a point about Malay vs Malay.
But beyond that, Umno & DAP will still be the biggest parties in their respective coslitions. I predict PKR will take a hit; after all, it’s already split.
The argument in favour of a DAP vs Umno matchup is that 90% of non Malays-non Muslims will be siding Harapan while (maybe 80%) of Malay-Muslims will be siding Muafakat.
Wan Saiful gives some figures (%) for swing in Malay support post-GE14 in his mini book.
If BERSATU were to stand in every constitunency umno/pas were to stand, WE the pengundi atas pagar will certainly vote BERSATU. By than, I hope all the BERSATU MPs would have learnt their lesson. No more frog hopping!!!!
There’s one reason for them to vote DAP and parties aligned with DAP.
In DAP’s own words, “to screw Melayu”.
DAP voters are Malay haters.
Perhaps not. I voted DAP in 2004 & 2008.
Understandably Chinese voters are hoping for a multiracial gomen. You can’t blame them for choosing Harapan in GE15 even.
After seeing what a PH government can do in just 2 years I can certainly blame anyone voting for them again.
Voting PH means voting for selling off the country, voting for more debts, and voting for more screwing the people, not just the Malays.
They don’t practice what they preach and they are guilty of the things they accuse their enemies.
The Chinese can either vote for MCA in Chinese majority areas or they can deny themselves of Chinese representation in PN.
Now that wouldn’t be a multi racial government, would it?
Political parties are moving towards conservatism vs Liberalism line. But, according to today’s trending, people and institutions want conservation as part of their lives. It’s more balance, natural, traditional and last longer just like environmental conservation.