Anwar is torpedoing what’s left of his political career with the Meridien Move, methinks.
After what I suspect could be a PKR self-inflicted injury, DAP will begin cannibalizing Anwar’s party like what Bersatu has done to Najib-and-Zahid’s party.
Question 1: Has Anwar miscalculated before? You betcha
Remember the Bota Adun?
In 2009, the Umno YB frog-leaped into PKR only to jump back out again. He was one of the catalysts leading to the messy collapse of the Perak state government, where MB Nizar was Pakatan Rakyat’s Malay window dressing.
BELOW: The Shakespeare-quoting Anwar is poor in Math; Hannah the Rat Catcher tried to justify ‘916’ — Anwar’s failed attempt at a parliamentary coup in September 2008
Question 2: Have PKR‘s fortunes been dipping like a roller coaster? Yup, yup, yup!
In the 2004 general election, PKR won only one parliament seat, i.e. Wan Azizah in Permatang Pauh. In that election, Umno had won 109 seats, PAS seven and DAP twelve.
In the previous 1999 election (GE10), PKR obtained five parliament seats. In the subsequent 2008 election (GE12), PKR obtained 25 parliament seats. By the 2018 election, PKR had doubled its haul to 42.
Let us look at PKR’s erratic record vs DAP’s rise and rise in the Dewan Rakyat.
- GE10: PKR (5) vs DAP (10)
- GE11: PKR (1) vs DAP (12)
- GE12: PKR (25) vs DAP (29)
- GE13: PKR (29) vs DAP (39)
- GE14: PKR (48) vs DAP (42)
Question 3: Could anybody ever have imagined DAP becoming the biggest party in parliament? Yet here we are
Now we shall compare the pattern of performance by these two multicultural parties over a period of five general elections.
PKR started in 1999 with a modest five MPs, dropped suddenly to one, then soared surprisingly to 25, increasing to 29 and hitting a peak of 48 but dropping down to 38 MPs today when we’re just at the mid-term of the 2018-2023 mandate. Like I said — a rollercoaster ride.
DAP, on the other hand, has experienced only strong and steady growth with no setbacks. From its 1999 baseline of 10 MPs, the party grew to 12 and incrementally from 29 to 39 and now 42.
Not only does DAP today have the most number of seats in parliament (beating Umno) but its cohort of 42 MPs has remained solidly intact unlike Umno and PKR which have both suffered substantial defections.
BELOW: Mahathir deserves to be anointed DAP spiritual guide — like them he’s a master at demonizing his political opponents
Question 4: Will DAP replace PKR as the leading multiracial party? For sure
Up till now, PKR has been the most racially diverse party and enjoying the biggest success in a wide range of mixed seats.
As we know, any Chinese majority seat is the DAP’s fixed deposit. However, in the seats where Chinese voters are between 20 and 45 percent of the electorate, PKR has been doing well. In earlier times, the BN had been able to win in such mixed seats too but not anymore.
In the Sabah 2020 election, PKR and DAP each contested seven seats. Of the seven seats where DAP stood its candidates, three were Chinese majority and four were mixed.
PKR won only two seats in the recent Sabah election while DAP won six. Half of the DAP’s present Sabah Aduns are representing mixed seats.
BELOW: Wow “blood on their hands” … native Sabahan Erna Mahyuni ini seorang wartawan ke drama queen?
Question 5: How can the DAP’s political Christianity turn into its winning formula? Because the Nons are against political Islam
DAP received an estimated 94 percent of the Chinese vote in Sabah. And the Chinese electorate has chosen to double down. Ergo come hell or high water, DAP has the Chinese and peninsular Christian vote locked in.
Bornean Christian votes are a subset of the indigenous electorate. The Sabah election results showed us that the native parties established by the Kitingan brothers (i.e. PBS and STAR which are aligned with BN-Perikatan) received strong support from the Kadazan Dusun Murut communities.
Nonetheless the Sabah election outcome was close, indicating that Warisan Plus also received a share of support from the Kadazan Dusun Murut.
A more important development was the erasing of party lines when DAP, PKR, PBS and STAR banded together to object most vehemently any possible entry by PAS into the Sabah government. Jannie Lasimbang and Chan Foong Hin (DAP), Christina Liew (PKR), Maximus Ongkili (PBS) and Jeffrey Kitingan (STAR) all slammed the door in PAS’s face.
The same trend by non Malays and non Muslims will be seen outside of Sabah in the next election, notwithstanding some degree of voter disenchantment with the DAP.
BELOW: The century-old and unstoppable force of nature
Question 6: Is it possible for the DAP to win a federal election? Depending on three factors …
It is quite possible for DAP to carry forward in pole position as the Dewan Rakyat’s biggest single party come future elections.
It’s also possible that PKR will begin disintegrating should Anwar shoot himself in the foot. After all, the PKR has a past record of sudden ups and downs tied closely to the ebb and flow of Ketum’s turbulent fortunes.
Umno had a record 109 MPs back in 2004; but look at the party today. Just as Bersatu has successfully muscled into Umno’s turf, the DAP is all set to encroach into PKR territory too.
This is Factor One — DAP taking over PKR’s mixed seats in the same way DAP accomplished its mission relieving the MCA of all its Chinese seats.
The Second Factor is Mahathir’s Pejuang, and/or possibly Bersatu creating multi-cornered fights to the detriment of Muafakat. BN lost GE14 partly because PAS split the votes and ate into Umno‘s Malay reserves. Amanah will be the prime beneficiary of Malay disunity when Chinese votes are a solid 95 percent bloc.
Factor Three is the DAP expansion into Borneo, marching behind Shafie Apdal as an acceptable Bumiputera figurehead. As I’ve mentioned in earlier posts, the Kristian pribumi are a blue ocean for the DAP to fish.