Perak: Chinese static, Malays dynamic

In the 2013 general election, MCA faced off DAP in the ten Perak state seats listed below. MCA lost in all of them. 

In the 2018 general election, MCA again contested these same ten seats. And once more, DAP wiped the floor with MCA in their Perak face-off.

Chinese candidates represented MCA-BN in the ten Perak seats in both the 2013 and 2018 elections.

In 2013, DAP was represented by an all-Chinese slate in these ten seats. In 2018 however, the evangelical party was represented by nine Chinese candidates and one Malay.

DAP’s sole Malay GE14 nominee for the Perak DUN was Abdul Aziz Bari in Tebing Tinggi. 

Now look at voting behaviour based on statistical data below. 

DAP victories in Perak DUN seats / 2018 majority (2013 majority) 

• Pokok Assam — 12,032 (7,925)
• Tebing Tinggi — 3,927 (5,887) ↓
• Pasir Pinji — 20,856 (13,632)
• Kepayang — 9,495 (4,604) 
• Tronoh — 10,501 (6,191)
• Pantai Remis — 13,316 (9,471)
• Malim Nawar — 6,082 (4,343)
• Keranji — 8,041 (5,561)
• Bercham — 20,709 (13,916)
• Menglembu — 17,948 (16,799)

DAP won the above ten Perak DUN seats in GE14 with increased majorities compared to their GE13 performance … with the SOLE EXCEPTION of Tebing Tinggi (see red arrow) where the party candidate is Malay.

In brackets are the majority votes obtained by DAP in GE13.

A comparison of the two sets of 2018/2013 figures shows that in nine seats where it was a case of DAP Chinese vs MCA Chinese, the Cina DAP fella won in GE14 with a bigger majority.

Only when it was DAP Malay (Aziz) vs MCA Chinese did the evangelical party’s winning majority uncharacteristically decrease, shrinking from GE13’s margin of 5,887 votes to 3,927 votes in GE14.

What accounted for this anomaly? Answer: The Malay floating vote.

In 2013, Tebing Tinggi was a straight fight between MCA and DAP. In 2008 and 2004, Tebing Tinggi was similarly a one-on-one battle between MCA and DAP.

In 2018, Tebing Tinggi became a three-cornered fight between MCA, DAP and PAS. 

DAP’s Ong Boon Piow received 10,131 votes in GE13 and DAP’s Aziz Bari received 10,334 votes in GE14 — a small increase of 203 votes for the party. 

MCA’s Khoo Boon Chuan received 4,244 votes in GE13. Standing again in the same seat, Khoo received 6,407 votes in GE14.

MCA-BN surprisingly improved their tally by 2,163 votes. Meanwhile PAS garnered 3,931 fresh votes. 

BELOW: The Christian-themed poster linked to Nga Kor Ming’s controversial Raya greeting in 2016

Takeaways 

As many pundits have observed, the DAP has already maxed out its level of electoral support among the non Malays. 

GE14 marked the apogee of DAP’s achievement. The evangelical party has no more voters left to entice away from its direct rivals MCA, MIC and Gerakan.

The only way DAP can expand its base is to ‘steal’ from its own side, i.e. from fellow multiracial party PKR.

Also DAP did not get any additional Malay votes for Aziz Bari in Tebing Tinggi. Those Malay votes went to PAS despite the Islamist party’s traditional lack of a presence on the west coast.

Looking ahead, there is no electoral room for DAP to grow or manoeuvre except to cannibalize its weakened Harapan ally since PKR is fast going downhill. 

The Malay electorate however is fluid as evidenced by the almost 4,000 votes for PAS seemingly coming out from nowhere (in the context of Tebing Tinggi’s election history). 

BELOW: Perak inking its all-Malay government earlier today 

Projection for the future

The breaking news is that Perak will maintain its Malay unity state government comprising Umno, PAS and Bersatu.

Neither Muafakat nor Perikatan want to have anything to do with the power-hungry DAP. 

And after Anwar’s recent series of screw-ups, his party is increasingly irrelevant. In their zero sum game, DAP will therefore be increasingly relevant – also stronger – in the mixed seats after taking over PKR’s role. 

DAP is currently the biggest and strongest (most cohesive) party in parliament and one which has not yet lost a single one of its original 42 MPs through frogging. 

The decision today in Perak to exclude DAP from the calculus stems from several reasons, one of them being that PAS, especially, is convinced of the slyness inherent in the DAP’s evangelical leadership. 

Or in my words as I would personally describe it — ’em sneaky bastards.

DAP’s over-representation of Christian leaders in its top echelon is a critical issue with PAS.  

Going into G15, the evangelical party is on a collision course with what its vocal followers feel to be the Ketuanan Islam coalition. 

The all-Malay government is 2020’s new normal.

If the 95 percent Chinese voters still continue to back the evangelical party, then they’re giving their nod to another new normal — the DAP’s brand of political Christianity.

BELOW: This Grace Residence condo is situated in  DAP-ruled Penang’s Jelutong area