The coming snap poll in Johor is Umno settling score with Bersatu. But it will also feature an entertaining sideshow of BN cutting PKR down to size.
The collapse of PKR will result in Harapan no longer being the peninsula‘s leading multiracial coalition.
Warisan can see this trend clearly unfold — which is why Shafie Apdal is muscling in on Semenanjung from across the South China Sea.
Reformasi 2.0 rocket style
PKR is on a losing streak because Harapan is bleeding their multiethnic support.
Harapan’s hemorrhage is causing a dent in DAP too but not affecting the evangelical party quite as badly — for more detailed state election results 2020–2021, scroll to the bottom of this page.
PKR’s strength is centred on the mixed areas. DAP contests in Chinese-majority areas, and as such its losses have not reached the extent of PKR’s rock bottom results in the Sarawak and Malacca elections.
And now that Anwar‘s era is coming to an end, the DAP is rebooting his Reformasi in their own image.
After the dust settles following a PKR wipeout and with Amanah fading into irrelevance, Harapan will be left with DAP as its sole ‘big tent’ pole.
What this means is the name ‘Harapan’ will soon become synonymous with Cina DAP super bullies.
BELOW: DAP’s evangelist taking possession of the “reformis” word
PKR performance in Johor, Sarawak, Malacca & Sabah
The Johor election is to be held within the next 60 days.
The Malacca and Sarawak elections took place at end 2021 (Nov & Dec), and the Sabah election in Sept 2020.
Although PKR was the most outstanding Harapan component in the 2018 general election, the party has since been imploding in the state elections.
At the time the state assembly dissolved two days ago, PKR had seven Aduns in Johor.
The most prominent element of Harapan’s short-lived reign was the number of frogs hopping hither thither, all which complicates the task of tracking the shifting allegiances of the various YBs.
Anyway for the record, PKR won five Johor state seats in GE14 out of the 12 it contested.
Will PKR be able to defend its current seven incumbent DUN seats in Johor?
SARAWAK: In the state election last month (Dec 2021), PKR was wiped out failing to win a single one of the 28 seats it contested.
MALACCA: In the state election two months ago (Nov 2021), PKR contested eight seats and was similarly taken to the cleaners — scoring a big fat zero.
SABAH: In the state election of 2020, PKR won a mere two seats out of the seven it contested.
There is no diverting PKR’s downward trajectory. These failing fortunes of PKR herald the collapse of any genuine multiracialism in the opposition, leaving Harapan a bastion of rabid Cina DAP voters.
BELOW: A couple of days ago in parliament, an Umno MP accused his DAP opposite numbers – particularly YB Segambut Hannah Yeoh – of bullying
DAP diminished but not demolished
PKR’s crash and burn is all but confirmed.
Anwar’s party was the biggest and most multiracial in the Pakatan pacts of 2008, 2013 and 2018.
Today however, DAP has emerged not only as the biggest party in Harapan but also as the biggest in Dewan Rakyat.
Hence our current series of state elections is the first step towards an early federal election where DAP’s ‘majority’ (plurality) command of parliament can be overturned.
BELOW: Now that he is no longer fit for purpose, prepare for his erstwhile Chinese allies to discard Anwar like a used dishrag
The signs are promising in Johor for DAP’s continued downslide.
Presently, DAP has a total of ten Aduns altogether from the three early election states — four in Sabah, two in Sarawak and four in Malacca.
DAP has not been impressive in recent times compared to 2018 when the party was an unstoppable juggernaut.
Nine of these DAP Aduns are Chinese, and with the sole exception of Sabah‘s YB Jannie Lasimbang, they all represent Cina totok areas in the two Borneo states and in Malacca.
DAP will be defending the 14 seats in Johor it won in 2018. The party had secured 13 Johor state seats earlier in 2013.
Politics ubah again in 2022
Harapan’s old formula was akin to a three-legged stool:
(1) PKR with multiracial support,
(2) DAP with 95 percent Chinese support, and
(3) Amanah and Bersatu getting the Malay Muslim swing vote. These three stool legs were augmented by Warisan.
This three-legged stool is presently in the process of breaking up.
What will remain intact is only one leg of the stool — DAP.
A single stool leg, however, can be repurposed to use as a metaphorical stick with which to beat and bully.
RESULTS: Comparing PKR with DAP in three state elections
Sabah 2020 (Sept)
PKR contested the election under its own pale-blue-eye logo and prevailed in a mere two constituencies.
DAP, which contested under the Warisan banner, won six seats in the 73-seat Sabah Dewan.
However, the party is now left with four Aduns after the defection of their Sri Tanjong and Elopura reps a few days ago.
The two defectors from DAP Sabah are YB Justin Wong and YB Calvin Chong. Of the evangelical party’s four remaining Aduns, three are Chinese and one is bumiputera (YB Jannie Lasimbang).
The PKR Aduns in Sabah are YB Christina Liew (Api-Api) and YB Peto Galim (Inanam).
In GE14, DAP contested seven seats in Sabah and won six. PKR contested eight seats and won two.
In 2020, both DAP and PKR contested seven seats each. Amanah contested one seat in Sabah which was won by BN.
Malacca 2021 (Nov)
PKR contested eight seats in the state election held two months ago but achieved zero returns.
In GE14, PKR had contested eight seats and won three in the 28-seat Malacca Dewan.
Last November, DAP only managed to defend four of its eight seats previously won in the 2018 general election. Its Malay and Indian candidates lost to BN.
Amanah also failed to defend its two seats even though the Islamist party headed the Malacca government with its man as chief minister.
Sarawak 2021 (Dec)
In the 2016 Sarawak election, PKR held three seats including Ba’kelalan won by Baru Bian.
DAP had seven seats in Sarawak 2016–2020.
Today, Sarawak has a Chinese deputy minister from SUPP. Its state election has usually served as a reliable bellwether for the general election to follow.
PKR scored a duck’s egg in the Sarawak 2021 election despite contesting 28 seats.
DAP was shellacked last month in Sarawak losing six seats where the evangelical party was the incumbent, and retaining only two Chinese urban seats.
We can safely conclude that DAP is only able to win in Cina pekat areas.
A Harapan where DAP far outpaces PKR is not multiracial but thoroughly Chinese dominated.