Posted in Johor election 2022

DAP will lose some seats in Johor

Because ‘Demography is Destiny’.

And DAP has a date with destiny on March 12 in Johor.

But DAP does not trust the census figures released yesterday and accused PM Ismail Sabri of skewing them — see news report below.

The DAP’s middle-age anxiety is being compounded by a finding from our 2020 population census that Chinese are now reduced to 23.2 percent of the population.

Chinese were a larger 24.5 percent slice of the citizenry back in 2010, according to the last census conducted a decade ago.

BELOW: Latest numbers by the Ddpartment of Statistics

Therefore the DAP’s vote bank comprising its fixed deposit Chinese electorate has shrunk in ratio compared to Umno’s.

Furthermore, DAP-dominated states like Penang and Perak are experiencing a slower growth in population.

The annual population growth rate is 1.3 percent in Penang and a sluggish 0.8 percent in Perak — see infographic below.

A comparatively bigger annual growth rate of 2.2 percent is seen in Johor where the BN is resurgent.

Our 2020 population census also reveals that the median age for Malaysians is 29 years old. We’re a young country.

Not surprising then that DAP is so desperately trying to groom Muda.

DAP has sugarbabied Muda a sweet candy, i.e. Johor’s Puteri Wangsa state seat, with Harapan giving way for the infant party.

PKR is unhappy with Harapan relinquishing the winnable seat to a less-than-three-month old party which is moreover not even a member of the coalition.

Muda is nominating a 27-year-old female candidate Amira Aisya for Puteri Wangsa.

BAWAH: Calon Muda, bakal YB @amiraaisya, berjanji akan berjuang untuk rakyat, “bekerja untuk rakyat” dan berkhidmat kepada rakyat Johor khususnya orang Puteri Wangsa

Is race a very important factor in our elections?

The Puteri Wangsa seat has more than 60 percent non-Malay voters. It is a suitable gift from DAP to Muda.

DAP itself won 14 seats in the Johor state assembly the last general election.

The recent Undi18 as well as automatic voter registration are anticipated to have some yet to be quantified impact on the coming Johor election.

Since we’re not provided with the updated Johor voter data, the ethnic composition of DAP’s 14 incumbent seats below refer to GE14 demographics.

In 2018, DAP’s winning state seats had the following percentage of Chinese voters:

  • Jementah — 50.1%
  • Bekok — 51.0%
  • Tangkak — 49.3%
  • Bentayan — 73.8%
  • Yong Peng — 59.6%
  • Penggaram — 60.0%
  • Mengkibol — 61.4%
  • Paloh — 37.1%
  • Johor Jaya — 47.3%
  • Stulang — 54.8%
  • Perling — 43.4%
  • Skudai — 64.3%
  • Senai — 62.3%
  • Pekan Nanas — 45.1%

Racial breakdown of DAP Johor voters

Thirteen of the DAP’s incumbent 14 seats have non-Malay majorities, meaning Chinese and Indian voters combined exceed fifty percent.

Eleven incumbent DAP seats have a Chinese plurality, meaning that although the Chinese may not quite exceed 50 percent, nonetheless there are still more Chinese than there are voters of any other race.

The exceptions are Paloh and Perling which have Malay pluralities as well as Pekan Nanas which is an outright Malay majority (53.4%).

Nine of the 14 DAP seats have Chinese majorities.

Paloh and Perling

Paloh was won by DAP’s Sheikh Umar Bangharib Ali — the sole Malay Adun incumbent in the party’s Johor stable.

(Note: The party’s only other non-Chinese incumbent in Johor is Ramasamy Suppiah who represented DUN Bekok which has 18 percent Indian voters.)

Paloh is DAP’s seat with the least number of Chinese voters (37.1%). Nonetheless the 15 percent Indian voters here push Paloh’s non-Malay majority to around 53 percent.

Perling has about the same size Malay and Chinese electorate, i.e. Malays (43.9%) vs Chinese (43.4%).

As with Paloh, the Indians who are 11 percent push Perling’s non-Malay majority to around 54-plus percent.

Using the race calculus

There are three DAP incumbent seats where Malay voters outnumber Chinese voters. They are Paloh (Malay 46.4%), Perling (Malay 43.9%) and Pekan Nanas (Malay 53.4%).

Coincidentally, all three constituency names begin with the letter ‘P’.

In the last general election, MCA candidates in Paloh, Perling and Pekan Nanas all lost to DAP.

DAP won Paloh for the first time in 2018. This seat was held by MCA in 2013, 2008 and 2004.

The Perling seat was called ‘Pengkalan’ in earlier elections and held by DAP in 2013, and by MCA in 2008 and 2004.

Looking at the scenario from the angle of race, a swing in Indian sentiment could hurt DAP in Paloh and Perling where Indians make up 15% and 11% of their electorate respectively.

In Pekan Nanas, however, Indians are a mere one percent. This seat was won by DAP in 2018 and 2013, and by MCA in 2008 and 2004.

Does religion influence our voting behaviour?

Our 2020 population census found that the number of Muslims in Malaysia has increased to 63.5 percent — see above.

A dozen years ago, Muslims were 61.3 percent according to statistics from the 2010 census.

Is the expanded ratio of Muslims good news for the Islamist parties and less positive news for evangelist DAP?

If religion plays a role in how Malaysians cast their ballot, then BN would have a better chance of defeating DAP if Umno (rather than MCA) contested Paloh, Perling and Pekan Nanas.

If both race and religion are indeed important factors in our elections, then the most vulnerable Johor DAP seats would be the aforementioned three ‘P’s.

Nonetheless, the DAP’s ‘diversity’ rhetoric insists that race and religion are outdated ideas that do not matter in Malaysia Baru.

In a little less than a month when Johoreans go to the polls, we shall find out how consequential or inconsequential race and religion really are.

Let’s wait and see the DAP election results for Paloh, Perling and Pekan Nanas come March 2022.



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3 thoughts on “DAP will lose some seats in Johor

  1. The State Elections in Melaka and Sarawak have been writings on the wall for the DAP. Times have changed. The mixed up of religious and political evangelism as led by the forceful and aggressive front-liners of the DAP has proved to be ineffective and created fear in the hearts and mind-sets of other communities which are unaccustomed to such person to person tactics (due to cultural differences) reflecting the DAP’s recent Policy of creating followers across the virtual divide. The DAP lost its mojo by not re-inventing itself early on in the PH Government and was dragged into split loyalty struggles between 2 sworn antagonists. But the up-shot was that the DAP Leadership at that moment in history, May 2018, could not see the wood from the trees. In victory, even though they were born again christians and sang about humility every Sabbath, they did not have HUMILITY and was happy to complete the CPTPP task for a dear friend amongst other minor tasks like promoting more christians to be judges right up to the Court of Appeal. As history is the finest arbiter of the Truth, the DAP Leadership has lost the plot in the fast moving Malaysian Politics where CASH IS NOW KING ! Now, the DAP Leadership with a beautiful hindsight has discovered that the age old political maxim, ‘ In Politics, there are no friends, only allies.’ also so holds true. By May 2018, I was aware that the devious DAP was the only Party who had a fairly clean nose and could turn itself in a major mainstream Malaysian Political Party for all with some astute fine adjustments for the immediate future and avoid jurassic mind-sets like what happened in the recent Melaka and Sarawak State Elections to their surprise. The proposed re-set takes time with the right timing and psychological approach. I made 4 attempts to meet the DAP Leadership to enlighten them that the DAP was a jewel in Malaysian Politics in their hands given the right and correct policies with a revered Constitutional bias. I was rebuffed 4 times. At present, the DAP is asunder internally because of the centripetal force of the old and the centrifugal force of the new digits because they fight for DIFFERENT reasons or motives. If this is uncontrolled, the DAP will end up in oblivion and loses whatever credits it had, past and present. An ancient saying, ” You must have harmony at home before you could fight and win in the streets.” To survive under the current environment of Malaysian Politics, the DAP still stands out but has been diminished in stature and stunned due to its recent high-profile losses after decades of riding the high-horse in Malaysian Politics.. It will not be surprising the Johor State Elections results will present an even starker outlook for the DAP because they have not bent with the wind since 1966 and their founder has long since gone. A prime example was the time and energy wasted in Pulau Pinang since 2008 by aping Singapore without thought and with more concrete but the lack of money and human resources. Tourism is the No. 1 revenue earner for Singapore. Would Singapore encourage Pulau Pinang to be the World’s Finest Holiday Destination honestly ? If the State Government had stuck to commonsense and cut the cloth according to its means like by promoting the Kulim Airport to take over the role of the Bayan Lepas which turned into Georgetown 2, a 21st Century Metropolis and many other goodies for the Rakyat and forget the SEDUCTIONS of the expensive reclamation and tunnel, imagine the WEALTH which Pulau Pinang has today ! As it is, the Pulau Pinang of 2022 is the same as 2008 with NORMAL administration in place but the sewage still flows unhindered to Batu Ferringhi and the floods can re-appear at any time. There is still hope if the DAP can re-invent itself into a truly major Malaysian Party without any baggage. This takes time to earn the trust of others. And TIME WILL TELL with the 15th GE lurking in the far horizon.

  2. How many Malaysians today have noticed that once upon a time, our beloved Malaysia had only one Leader or ‘General’ or ‘Boss’ and one Party to lead us. Now, I have lost count the number of political parties which have mushroomed due to the new Malaysian phenomenon of easy money and most importantly, the realization by those eligible that they too can be THE PRIME MINISTER like the 18 year olds – a scenario of many tents each with ONE BIG CHIEF or the guy who has the money. Today, we the Rakyat has the notion to view our country with many political leaders or ‘generals’ with no supporting real elites or ‘colonels’ but troupes of ‘batsmen or butlers’ in train. Hence, our humongous Cabinet with 73 Ministers ( Generals) exist because no one desires to be a ‘colonel’. Not only that, the daily incessant political chatter is created by the ‘ generals ‘ who launched salvoes after salvoes at each other to gain kudos. Hence, no policies emerged in a political vacuum until the true elites re-emerge hopefully because we cannot have a political cake without the icing ! Even in ex-World class Singapore, a tiny place known for its pukka elites, when the all destroyer Covid-19 virus struck, at the end of the day which is now, the number of real Singaporean elites who can stand up to be counted, may be less than the fingers of one hand ! Remarkable ! Recently, Singapore claimed to be the World’s Best Country to deal with the Covid-19 virus. That was yesterday. But today it was reported in the CNA that there are over 19,000 new cases in Singapore ( Population = 5 million ) whilst Malaysia ( Population = 32 million ) has 22,000 cases. Believe it or not !

  3. dap is the main causal of malay unity, dap lose mean malay elite can fight more aggressively and openly for money and power.

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