DAP is defending 14 state seats in Johor.
Of these, Bentayan is its seat with the biggest Chinese electorate at 73.8 percent Chinese voters.
Skudai is DAP’s second most Chinese seat in Johor with 64.3 percent Chinese voters. Coupled with its 12.2 percent Indian voters, Skudai is a roughly 77 percent non-Malay electorate.
Skudai is a fixed deposit for the DAP.
Lim Guan Eng today announced Marina Ibrahim (below) as the DAP candidate for Skudai in the coming Johor election.
Although it is jumping the gun to call her Yang Berhormat, nonetheless a (premature) ‘YB Marina’ is guaranteed to win because Skudai is a very safe seat for her party.
DAP won Skudai in GE14 with a majority of 35,126 votes. And DAP has placed Marina in Skudai, thus ensuring that it will have at least one Malay Adun in its stable after the dust settles on March 12 (polling day).
There are 587 state seats in Malaysia, of which 505 were contested in Semenanjung and Sabah in GE14. Sarawak has 82 seats contested in 2016 and 2021.
MCA won altogether only two state seats in GE14. They were Titi Tinggi in Perlis and Cheka in Pahang. Both Perlis and Pahang had remained BN states in GE14 although the coalition suffered a routing elsewhere.
Titi Tinggi has 77.8 percent Malay voters while Cheka has 71.5 percent Malay voters.
MCA obtained a slim majority of 142 votes in Titi Tinggi and 202 votes in Cheka.
MCA was a party of two Aduns in a country with 587 DUN seats. An MCA Adun is as rare as a Sumatran rhino.
(Update: MCA picked up a couple more Aduns in the Malacca 2021 election.)
Likewise a DAP Malay elected representative — also another rare species.
Unless given the protection of Chinese votes, the Malay DAP candidate cannot survive.
In this, they’re the mirror image of MCA candidates who cannot survive either unless given the protection of Malay votes.
DAP’s Malay incumbent is Sheikh Umar Bangharib Ali in Paloh. He won the Johor hot seat with a slender majority of 783 votes — which is a far cry from DAP’s 35,126 majority last time in Skudai where his fellow Malay Marina Ibrahim is standing next month.
This time, Sheikh Umar is not expected to be able to eke out a thin victory.
Thus DAP needs Marina to be their token Malay, just like how MCA reps are propped up by Malay votes to be the window dressing for multiethnic BN.
Skudai with 77 percent non-Malay voters is very safe for Marina.
Puteri Wangsa with 61.4 percent non-Malay voters is not as sure a bet as Skudai but nonetheless still a winnable seat for the opposition … as long as there is a straight fight and no split votes.
DAP and Amanah have agreed to give way for a Muda candidate in Puteri Wangsa.
Umno relied on its loyal Malay base to elect the Chinese candidates and hand a win to MCA-BN.
DAP is relying on its loyal Chinese base to elect the Malay candidates in Skudai and Puteri Wangsa.
But whereas Umno and MCA are honest about their being race parties, the DAP pretends it is non racial. Bah humbug!