Keputusan pilihanraya semalam di Padang Serai merupakan satu tamparan hebat ke muka Zahid Hamidi, si presiden Umno yang asyik berpeluk-pelukan dengan DAP.
DAP ini cukup toksik! Lagi lama Umno bersama parti tersebut maka lagi kuat Umno akan terkesan dan dijauhi orang Melayu.
The photo below shows Zahid in Padang Serai, Kedah on the stump for the PKR candidate.
“… tidak mustahil ‘gunung berapi’ yang terpendam akan meletus pada pilihan raya akan datang sekali gus menyaksikan gelombang penolakan besar-besaran terhadap Umno oleh akar umbinya sendiri.” — Hussaini Amran @ Malaysia Gazette (6 Dis 2022)
SOALAN: ‘Apa sudah jadi dengan prinsip perjuangan Umno?’
JAWAPAN: Zahid sumbat dalam longkang dah.
Umno will die from DAP poisoning if it does not quickly remove itself from the Harapan toxic environment.
Umno cannot hope to reprise the Malay party role that Bersatu – then led by Mahathir – once played in Harapan 1.0.
Harapan 2.0 cannot replicate the old spirit of BN where Umno is Ali and DAP is the new Ah Chong.
In BN once upon a time, Umno had more than thrice the MCA’s strength. In the Umno-DAP current coupling, however, the evangelical party is almost twice Umno’s size.
And most importantly, Harapan-Plus is destined to fail because Umno is no longer the voice of the Malays. This is fact proved by data.
Padang Serai takeaways
Following are the stats for the Padang Serai parliament election yesterday.
PH candidate Sofee Razak received 35,377 votes. Zahid and Umno campaigned for him.
PN candidate Azman Nasrudin received 51,637 votes. He won big despite the lopsided two (PH+BN) against one (PN) fight.
Let’s compare the figures from GE14, also bearing in mind that there are more registered voters this election in contrast to the last one.
In GE14, PKR received 31,724 votes. Yesterday, PKR got 35,377.
In GE14, PAS received 22,911 votes. Yesterday, Bersatu got 51,637.
Since the last election in 2018, PKR has gained 3,653 votes. Meanwhile, PN gained a whopping 28,726 votes.
The support of between 32k – 35k votes for PH is constant and coming from hardcore Harapan followers.
Assuming a consistent 23k voters in Padang Serai are diehard PAS people, where then did the additional 29k votes for Bersatu-PN come from yesterday?
Obviously the Undi-18 bunch. Also from the BN Malays and Indians. The last election, BN had obtained 15,449 votes in Padang Serai. Yesterday, BN got only 2,983 votes. A total of 12,466 votes shifted away from BN.
In 2018, there were three major candidates in Padang Serai — PKR vs PAS vs BN. Yesterday there were two — PKR vs Bersatu.
Since BN had stood down, its potential 12.5k votes yesterday moved, and they swung more to PN than they did to PH.
Conclusion: Umno is haemorrhaging Malay and Indian support.
Umno wiped out from Malay belt
Here is more data concerning the Malay heartland.
The map of Kedah above shows the state’s 15 parliament constituencies. All are won by PN in GE15 with the sole exception of Sungai Petani (in red).
Sungai Petani, which borders Penang and has roughly 40 percent non-Malay voters, remained in PKR hands.
The table above lists 15 state seats in Perlis. All are won by PN in GE15 with the sole exception of Indera Kayangan (in red).
Indera Kayangan, which has roughly 50 percent non-Malay voters, was retained by PKR.
Rumusan: Umno kalah teruk
Umno lost in all three Perlis parliament seats. Umno also lost in all the DUN seats it contested in Perlis.
Umno lost too in all the parliament seats it contested in Kedah.
The two tables above list 14 parliament seats in Kelantan and eight in Terengganu. All are won by PN in GE15. Habis disapu oleh PAS dan Bersatu, whose leaders waved the green banner and moon logo.
Umno lost in all the parliament seats it contested in Kelantan and Terengganu. Rumusan: Umno kalah lagi teruk; tewas di SEMUA kerusi.
These four states – Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu – are the Malay heartland. And Umno got a big fat zero in all of them.
Gua tak ‘caya lu
Zahid says he has not “sold Umno”. Many don’t believe him.
Zahid also claims DAP Baru now respects Ketuanan Melayu. Even more Malays disbelieve this.
PN obtained a 16,260-vote majority yesterday in Padang Serai. This is a huge swing from 2018 when it was PH that had a 8,813-vote majority.
PN’s big win in Padang Serai is a huge rejection by Malays of Zahid and Umno. The cries of “Undur, undur! will only become louder.
Masihkah Umno parti Melayu?
DAP declares that MCA cannot posture to be the party representing the Chinese when it cannot win any Cina totok seats.
MCA has become irrelevant as far as the Chinese electorate is concerned.
Now apply the same argument to Umno. How can Umno claim to be the party representing Malays when it is currently unable win any Melayu pekat seats?
The GE15 results show that Umno is fading into irrelevance as far as the Malay electorate is concerned. Benda yang pengundi Melayu buang, Cina DAP mahu pungut.
Just like MCA wins in mixed areas by depending on Malay BN votes, Umno is set on a similar trajectory of hoping to win in mixed areas by depending on Cina DAP future votes.
But Umno is really hastening its own demise by clinging on to the DAP life jacket and embracing the Dapster credo of ‘diversity’ and ‘multikulti’.
Zahid’s bait and switch
BN voters in Perak pangkah dacing and got a Rocket-dominated government instead handed them by Zahid.
The PH-BN Perak state administration now has 18 DAP Aduns and eight Umno Aduns. The sole MCA Adun there was thrown under the bus by Zahid.
MCA was backstabbed by Zahid who did not even inform the BN Chinese party that Umno was doing its backroom deal with PH to form the Perak government.
Umno was similarly unable to form a BN government in Pahang without enlisting the DAP’s help.
Pahang – also Najib’s home state – used to be a BN bastion. Today Umno is losing here to Bersatu and PAS.
Umno is presently in the Perak, Pahang and Putrajaya governments only through using the backdoor.
PN has only to call for state polls in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu to demonstrate that Umno is sure to lose election after election.
Bila sesat, pulanglah ke pangkal jalan. The only way for Umno to redeem itself is to seek a rapprochement with the other Malay parties and put muafakat ahead of its leader’s personal self interest.
What we have is the man who led Umno to its most crushing defeat in party history still, undeservingly, elevated to Deputy Prime Minister (I) by Anwar and DAP.
MIC has more maruah than Umno. The BN Indian party will refuse to accept any Deputy Minister post offered by Anwar. The Umno men (and one woman), OTOH, are content with being second banana in the Anwar cabinet.
Kalau Zahid enggan berundur dan dibawanya BN ikut keluar sekaligus, maka wajar MIC dan MCA tarik diri saja dari gabungan BN.