Cina DAP lovin’ Umno … why?

Umno backstabbed its BN allies while hugging tight the DAP. So what is there not to love?

As a result of Zahid and Umno UGliness, Cina DAP are now exco in state governments – e.g. Sabah and Pahang – where previously the DAP could not make any headway.

This morning, DAP became a part of the Sabah government via an Ubah breakthrough outside of the state election mandate. (Sabah PRN was held in September 2020.)

DAP’s YB Phoong Jin Zhe is also today appointed a new member of Sabah chief minister Hajiji’s revamped cabinet.

With this, DAP has successfully sunk its tentacles into six state governments (see full list below). By contrast, Umno is very much diminished — having only a presence in four (if we don’t count Sabah) state governments.

Note: Sabah is complicated as Umno state party chairman Bung Moktar is now in the opposition whereas five Umno rebels have ‘crossed the floor’.

BELOW: Umno the dinosaur party serves itself on a plate to DAP for lunch

DAP parasiting on Umno

Umno is a weak party growing weaker by the day compared to DAP which is replenishing its strength by sucking Umno blood.

But instead of using its last energies to try and save Malaysia from DAP – as what PAS is doing – Umno chose to present its neck to the DAP ‘bloodsucker’, inviting “Bite me darling, oh please!”

Umno is helping to empower DAP by lending its 33 percent Malay mandate to Harapan. This is Langkah Zahid carried out in November 2022.

Meanwhile, Muhyiddin claimed yesterday that PN has the support of at least 62 percent of Malay and bumiputera voters — see explainer at the bottom of this page. PN is the new Malay mainstream because it has Malay majority backing.

BELOW: Is Umno the creature on the left and DAP the one on the right?

Repercussions from Langkah Zahid

We know what Umno did last election at federal level — opening the door for DAP to reenter Putrajaya. Let’s now talk about what Umno did at state level.

Here is the big picture beyond Zahid’s personal cushy DPM position.

There are two areas to look at.

• ONE, Umno is in how many state governments vs DAP is in how many state governments

• TWO, Umno is in how many DUNs (state legislative assemblies) vs DAP is in how many DUNs

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Bung Moktar mendakwa pelantikan dua portfolio menteri baharu termasuk Timbalan Ketua Menteri, tidak mewakili UMNO dan tidak diiktiraf oleh UMNO Sabah.https://t.co/d8GtqNKCT7

— SinarHarian (@SinarOnline) January 11, 2023

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Umno vs DAP in state excos

The Federal Territory does not have a state government. In the rest of Malaysia, DAP’s presence vs Umno’s presence in the state exco are as follows:

1. Sabah: No Umno, got DAP
2. Sarawak: No Umno, no DAP
3. Perlis: No Umno, no DAP
4. Kedah: No Umno, no DAP
5. Kelantan: No Umno, no DAP
6. Terengganu: No Umno, no DAP
7. Penang: No Umno, got DAP
8. Perak: Got Umno, got DAP
9. Pahang: Got Umno, got DAP
10. Selangor: No Umno, got DAP
11. Negeri Sembilan: No Umno, got DAP
12. Malacca: Got Umno, no DAP
13. Johor: Got Umno, no DAP

To sum up, Umno is present in the state governments of:

1. Perak
2. Pahang
3. Malacca
4. Johor

Sabah marked as asterisk.

DAP is present in the state governments of:

1. Sabah
2. Penang
3. Perak
4. Pahang
5. Selangor
6. Negeri Sembilan

For the first time in Malaysian history, DAP has overtaken Umno in the measure of how widespread is their political power … thanks to Zahid bringing DAP by stealth into Pahang and Perak, and Bung Moktar for triggering the Sabah fiasco.

Giving the excuse that DAP and Umno are currently UGly partners at federal level in Putrajaya, DAP wants to further “caucus” with Umno in Johor too.

Following Langkah Zahid, DAP is knocking on Johor’s side door after being let into Pahang and Perak through the back door.

Although DAP-Harapan are quickly trying to muscle in on Johor, they’re however not putting out a reciprocal welcome mat for Umno-BN in the states that they rule such as Penang and Selangor.

Read ‘Umno diketepi di negeri didominasi PH’ published in Harakah last week.

Selangor has 272 appointed members of its local councils, and not a single one of them is an Umno man.

In Johor, however, DAP is eyeing possible openings in the state administration although the party still sits on the opposition bench.

Langkah Zahid in November 2022 bawa banyak untung bagi DAP downstream whereas Umno is not getting return benefits. In other words, Umno rugi because no quid pro quo.

Furthermore, Umno threw MCA and MIC under the bus as neither of these two BN parties were given cabinet positions.

And then, while the new PH-BN combo to contest the state elections this year will provide Umno a share of the Malay majority seats to contest, it is difficult to imagine MCA and MIC being allowed any non-Malay majority seats to contest at the DAP’s expense.

BELOW: Umno expected to work with Harapan in the coming state elections

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Pengerusi Pakatan Harapan Kedah, Datuk Mahfuz Omar menyifatkan kerjasama PH dan BN di enam buah negeri pada Pilihan Raya Negeri (PRN) akan datang sebagai ‘hampir pasti akan berlaku’….https://t.co/slhdHLQ5gq

— MediaPH (@MediaHarapan) January 11, 2023

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Umno vs DAP in the DUNs

Umno has more depth, i.e. many Aduns in its stronghold states such as Johor, Pahang and Sabah.

DAP has a broader reach, e.g. having Aduns in Sarawak where Umno is absent, and in all the multiracial states whereas Umno is missing from the Malay heartland.

Also DAP is strong in the Umno-ruled states, e.g. with 10 mostly Chinese Aduns in Johor and 11 mostly Chinese Aduns in Negeri Sembilan. Umno, on the other hand, is weak in the DAP-ruled states, e.g. with only two Malay Aduns in Penang and four Malay Aduns in Selangor.

DAP has strong PH partners in the multikulti states with PKR having many Aduns in Selangor (25 before the frog fest) and 14 in Penang pre-Sheraton Move.

Umno’s BN partners, on the other hand, have been battered by DAP with MCA having only four Aduns in Johor and MIC having one sole Adun in Pahang (MCA dapat telur there).

The number DAP Aduns vs Umno Aduns in the 13 states/regions are as follows:

1. Sabah: Umno 17 (or 12*), DAP 4
2. Sarawak: Umno 0, DAP 2
3. Penang: Umno 2, DAP 19
4. Perak: Umno 8, DAP 18
5. Pahang: Umno 16, DAP 6
6. Selangor: Umno 4, DAP 15
7. Negeri Sembilan: Umno 15, DAP 11
8. Malacca: Umno 18, DAP 4
9. Johor: Umno 33, DAP 10

Total: Umno 113, DAP 89

Including the five Sabah rebels*, Umno has 113 Aduns, and DAP 89 Aduns nationwide bar the Malay belt.

Umno has YBs in eight states; DAP has YBs in nine states.

DAP with its 19 Aduns in Penang and 15 Aduns in Selangor offers nothing to Umno in these states.

It’s not as if DAP fixed deposit voters can assist Umno in making a comeback unless Umno wants to contest under the Harapan logo in Cina totok constituencies.

Meanwhile, Umno with its 16 Aduns in Pahang has welcomed DAP into the GE15 state government. This is a betrayal of the BN voters who ‘pangkah dacing, dapat roket’.

In Perak, DAP with its 18 Aduns has allowed Umno with its 8 Aduns to assume the Menteri Besar post as a lame duck MB. Alternatively, if Umno had hooked up with PN, then DAP would be oppo in Perak.

The current fear is that there is going to be Ubah of the Malacca chief minister, which might similarly enable the DAP to slip in through the gap, as what just happened in Sabah.

How Malay electoral support is divided

PAS-linked think tanks have estimated PN to have around a 56 percent share of the Malay electorate in GE15.

Bridget Welsh estimates PN to have some 54 percent Malay support but she confines her figure to only the electorate in Semenanjung.

The PN chairman himself gave an estimate yesterday. Muhyiddin said 62 percent Malays and bumiputera supported his coalition. His higher number – encompassing the larger pribumi group – likely included voters in Sabah and Sarawak.

There were five major minor coalitions that won seats in the Nov 19 general election — PH, PN, BN, GPS and GRS.

Mahathir’s coalition GTA came away from the polls empty handed.

Post GE15, the various coalitions coalesced into two sides: (a) the Harapan-plus ad hoc ruling bloc of PH, BN, GPS & GRS, and (b) PN in the opposition.

Umno giving BN’s Malay mandate to DAP

Umno bringing its 33 percent Malay mandate in a gift basket to PH gives UGly some 44 percent Malay support.

We’ll use Bridget Welsh‘s figures. She gives PH an “eleven percent” support from Malay voters — see her bar graph above.

Hence it is opposition PN with 54 percent Malay mandate vs UGly with 44 percent (11% + 33%) Malay mandate.

These percentages of Malay support apply to the situation before 19 Nov 2022.

After 20 Nov 2022, Malay sentiment shifted somewhat because BN voters were left dumbfounded when the Umno president unilaterally took BN into UGly.

Subsequent to Langkah Zahid, Umno has 11 ministers and deputy ministers in Anwar’s Unity Government (UG). DAP has 10 ministers and deputy ministers.

The breakdown is Umno six in cabinet and five deputy ministers (total 11); DAP four in cabinet and six deputy ministers (total 10).

Umno’s eleven is only one up on DAP’s ten. Nothing for DPM to crow about regarding his “new narrative” introduced to the betrayed BN.

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