Umno kena hentam left, right and Sabah

DAP wants Umno dead. Now which part of this simple message does Umno fail to understand?

Ask yourself: When has ever, in the history of the Alliance-BN, an MCA candidate lost his deposit?

Now look at the two telegrams below.

Both the MCA death notices were sent from Penang.

“Menurut beliau, anak muda Cina Pulau Pinang banyak dipengaruhi oleh cara dan sikap Lim Guan Eng. […] Stail dia macam gangster. Tingkah laku dan cara cakap kasar macam pejuang jalanan. Orang ramai melihat pemimpin mereka begitu dan ikut sama. Patutlah bekas timbalannya panggil Guan Eng samseng …”

.
The excerpt above about Penang streetfighters is taken from a 6 June 2013 Berita Harian article titled ‘Pembangkang merakyatkan sikap biadab‘.

Apa lagi DAP mahu?

Lim Kit Siang declared:

” … my message to DAP and Pakatan Rakyat leaders, member and supporters is that there is no time for rest as we must work immediately to achieve what we failed in the 13GE.”

— ‘DAP targets 13 Sabah seats in GE14 action plan‘ (TMI, 8 June 2013)

Ini kali, Sabah lah

In Sabah, according to Kit Siang, Pakatan could have done better and won 4 more parliament as well as 8 more DUN seats if not for the split votes caused by three- and four-cornered fights among the opposition candidates.

In truth, there is no state currently where the BN is secure.

Sarawak

In Sarawak, DAP won 5 Parliament seats to the PBB’s 14.

DAP alone has one-third the seats of Taib Mahmud’s party. And now it is casting its eye on the Borneo interior.

Read ‘Chong heads Sarawak DAP, eyes rural seats‘ (The Sun Daily, 9 June 2013); DAP is seriously considering to set up Radio Ubah (FMT, 10 June 2013). DAP has already established Ubah.TV, by the way.

DAP is treating its expansionary politics into the rural areas with the same cutthroat efficiency that characterizes Chinese business acumen.

Johor

In Johor, DAP won 4 Parliament seats to Umno’s 15.

DAP’s strength is almost one-third that of Umno’s in fortress Johor. Considering that DAP has gained a strong foothold in the southern state and its Iskandar region following the party’s sterling performance in GE13, you can expect more fillip to the DAP powerhouse over the next 5 years.

In short, after the Chinese tsunami, BN no longer has fixed deposit states. Not even in the Malay-concentrated ones.

That’s why Kit Siang’s son can be so confident as to echo the father’s ambition “to win the federal government in Putrajaya”; Guan Eng urged “party members to be ready to rule Putrajaya after the next general election” in recent his open letter.

The greening of Terengganu

The electoral map above shows how Terengganu morphed from being

• an all blue Umno state in 2004
• to holding Marang (PAS president Hadi Awang’s Parliament seat in 2008)
• to gaining 4 Parliament seats (coloured green) in 2013

PAS and Umno are equally strong in Terengganu. PAS contested 29 state seats and won 14, a bit less than half. Umno contested 31 seats and won 17. A bit more than half.

Presently BN and PAS each hold 4 Terengganu Parliament seats.

More significantly though, PAS won the Parliament seat of Kuala Terengganu, the state capital.

The Parliament wins by Umno are in the comparatively more rural areas of Terengganu (see map) and reflective of the trend nationwide that has led its detractors to call Umno a “kampung party”.

The ratio in the Terengganu state legislative assembly is 17:15 — Umno has 17 seats to Pakatan’s 15 (14 PAS + 1 PKR).

Should there be a by-election in an Umno ward and if the incumbent party were to lose, then both sides would be deadlocked at 16-16.

Kuala Nerus, Parliament

Terengganu is a good case study because it escaped the Chinese tsunami there. Of all the states in Malaysia, Terengganu is the one with the lowest percentage (2.6%) of Chinese inhabitants.

Kuala Nerus is the constituency bordering the small, developed Kuala Terengganu and under the same administrative district. It was the most closely fought.

In this purely Malay vs Malay fight where the Chinese voters were a negligible one percent, victory still went to PAS. However the majority of 610 votes obtained by the PAS candidate is lower than the number of spoilt votes (770).

Kuala Nerus is very young

Some parts of Kuala Nerus is fairly ‘urban’ while other parts remain semi-rural. It is a Parliamentary constituency which has 4 state seats, out of which PAS won 3 and Umno, one.

The outcome was a nail-biting finish, to say the least. PAS won the Teluk Pasu DUN with a majority of 109 (spoilt votes were 196), the Tepuh DUN with a majority of 229 (spoilt votes were 220), and the Bukit Tunggul DUN with a majority of 652.

In 2008, the situation was reversed with Umno winning 3 DUNs and PAS one.

The most interesting aspect of Kuala Nerus in GE13 is its extremely high percentage of young voters. A total 31 percent of its electorate are under the age of 30!

Altogether, 56 percent of Kuala Nerus voters are under the age of 40 (see pie chart, above)

Kuala Nerus also saw an increase of 24,701 voters, i.e. from 51,537 in 2008 to 76,238 in 2013. Thus 32.4 percent of Kuala Nerus electors were the constituency’s first-time voters on 5 May 2013.

It is most likely that these new electors voted for the opposition, PAS. This follows from the logic that Umno had won Kuala Nerus in 2004 and 2008.

Previously in 1999, the constituency had elected a youngish PAS man.

Kuala Nerus will be one of the Malay seats up for grabs in the next general election.

The results in Terengganu is something that the Umno war room must factor as it illustrates how precarious the balance is in the Malay heartland as well as the significant impact of urbanization and a young demography.

Aside from the urban wave, Umno is being hit by the young wave too — and no Chinese to blame here in Kuala Nerus, yah.

Big threat to the BN

PKR has turned out to be the most ‘centre’ party in the peninsula. In the Parliamentary constituencies (excluding Sabah and Sarawak) where there are between 30% and 50% Chinese voters, PKR holds 21 seats and DAP 8 compared to Umno’s 15 and MCA’s 5 (table here).

The clear and present danger to BN is the spread of the Gospel of Jerusubang.

Through it, the DAP is city harvesting the young and even young Malays through fitnah (see TMI below).

It’s easier to hoodwink the young through social media.

“All GE13 racism originated from BN” — the opposition single out Dr Mahathir as their public enemy No.1

Clash of civilizations

The force of Jerusubang is that it has all the slick sophistry of Christendom behind the evangelistas. Indeed some of the organizations that front for Pakatan, such as Bersih, are recipients of Western funding.

BN was hammered left, right and centre because her Umno generals were caught flatfooted.

Najib Razak was actually and truly shocked at the GE13 results. Giving his press conference in the early hours of May 6 after the results were announced, he said:

“I expected it but I did not expect it to this extent. None of us expected it to this extent. But despite the extent of the swing against us, BN did not fall.”

Tu lah. Najib ditipu hidup-hidup oleh MCA dan The Star.

Here is how Tun Daim Zainuddin dissected the Chinese tsunami:

“If I know, then surely BN knows that the Chinese majority areas were gone. Why waste time and money? As a strategy, you should concentrate on those areas where you lost by slim majorities in 2008 and strengthen the seats you won in 2008.”

Tun Daim knew. I also knew. Even the kopitiam char koay teow seller knew that the Chinese wife had sneaked out the BN house in the dead of night.

So how come the Malay husband is the last to know? (Laaah, if you keep reading The Jerusubang Star, pasti akan terus diperdaya dan diperbodohkan sampai bila-bila.)

Umno ni pakai baju besi ke?

“It all begins with a snip here & a snip there,” says Fakin’ Fake Calvin, a regular commenter at this blog.

“And when you’re complacent and comfy, you’ll never see the stab of the scissors between your shoulder blades.” FF Calvin is remarking on how The Star last Sunday was “really plunging the scissors” into Shen Yee Aun for his cardinal sin of exposing the Red Bean Army.

Another commenter Mas cautioned, “Enemy within is always the most dangerous and the most vicious. Poor SYA. Whipped by Red Beans and snipped by Scissoratis.” (note: spelling Scissorati, no ‘s’)

Screenshot above: Scissorati taking a stab at Utusan

Apa ciri Perang Salib?

Mas is correct in her comment to say they’re “vicious”. That is the primary trait of the Evangelista Bintang Tiga.

This Evangelista Bintang Tiga viciousness is coupled with malice.

Shen Yee Aun says the DAP cybertroopers are “ruthless”.

He says: “I am fighting every day. It is a psychological war and they just want to break one’s spirit and discredit the person.”

He also says: “The Red Bean Army manipulated, slandered and created lies about my friends, my family and me. They have started to harass my brother that he is scared to use our surname Shen!”

He adds that his friends have been slandered as prostitutes and he is being called a pimp.

Dapsters are indeed capable fabricating the most outrageous lies as if slander were something mass-manufactured off the assembly line.

What the BN is up against

The BN is enmeshed in a battle for its life.

Najib said he “did not expect it to this extent”.

Well, he should have.

Just pause a minute and ponder on the pembohongan dan cakap berbelit-belit of the evengelistas over the kalimah Allah issue. Then you will realise just what kind of people they are. Sampai Tuhan pun mereka sanggup gadaikan.

We’re up for an electoral boundaries re-delineation exercise soon.

Remember that Pakatan won the popular vote because they have the sardine-packed constituencies.

The Subang Jaya DUN has 61,688 voters which is more than many Parliamentary constituencies. Damansara Utama has 53,394 voters. The Jerusubangites can agitate for both these DUNs to be upgraded to become Parliament seats based on population size (Pagoh, the Parliament seat of deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, for instance, has only 46,793 voters).

BN has slid from having 140 federal seats in 2008 to 133 seats in 2013. What is the fate of the BN in 2018 should new urban seats be carved out that are populated by Jerusubangites?

The Star is the staunchest supporter of the DAP evangelistas. Its slanted and biased reporting is evident in the typical deflection and cover up on behalf of the Chinese opposition — see ‘No Red Bean Army manning online campaign, reiterates DAP’ (The Sunday Star, 9 June 2013).

You can read also FF Calvin and Mas’s comments in full @ ‘The Scissorati’.

In the next general election, BN will not only be battling DAP, PKR and PAS but also the other covert components of Pakatan such as The Star. In GE14, the Umno president can no longer say he “did not expect it to this extent”. By then it will be too late as Umno would be occupying the opposition benches.

And as we’ve seen with Penang and Selangor, once power is in DAP hands, it’s impossible to get it back.