The most important detail of the Rompin by-election result is that the total votes for PAS remained constant – almost no reduction.
By-election
- Hasan Arifin (Umno) got 23,796 votes
- Nazri Ahmad (PAS) got 14,901 votes
GE13
- Jamaluddin Jarjis (Umno) got 30,040 votes
- Nuridah Mohd Salleh (PAS) got 14,926 votes
In the interval of exactly two years between 5 May 2013 (13th general election) and 5 May 2015 (yesterday), Umno lost 6,244 votes. PAS only lost 25 votes.
Turnout dropped drastically
- GE13 : 85.9%
- By-election : 73%
Since there is no change in the level of support for PAS, then the logical conclusion is that it is the BN voters who were not motivated to come out to vote.
Spoilt votes
- GE13 : 883 votes
- By-election : 591 votes
Majority
- JJ’s majority in May 2013 : 15,114 votes
- Hasan’s majority in May 2015 : 8,895 votes
Massive drop in majority. This is bad news for the BN and is a harbinger of the trend of pro-establishment people choosing to abstain from voting.
Almost the same number of roughly 14,900 voters gave their support to PAS in 2013 and 2015. It is the BN voters who mogok or clearly boycotted the by-election.
The bottomline is that the pro-establishment crowd are very unhappy with the regime.
Die lor like this
This is what will happen in GE14 if the present trajectory remains unchanged.
The ABU people will be as fanatical, if not more, as they were “ini kali lah” in 2013.
The 95 percent support – see Straits Times report below (on Permatang Pauh) – by the Chinese will be maintained or even increased.
BN has lost the Hindraf segment of Indian support which it had in 2013 when Waytha Moorthy hopped on board.
Minorities can win elections – Obama did
The DAP is going all out on its efforts to agitate the Christians and natives in Sabah and Sarawak. A number of Christian-majority seats held by BN could fall to the DAP in the same way that BN lost a raft of semi-urban peninsular seats in GE13.
Think the ‘Obama Effect’ and how an ethnic minority man won the White House despite his white opponent from the Republican party getting more white votes (the majority race) than did the Democrats’ black presidential candidate.
Years ago Tun Daim already warned that the DAP are “streetfighters” (his word). They wear knuckle dusters and aim to punch your lights out when they land a blow.
If BN wants to survive GE14 and hang on to Putrajaya, then it has to go on war footing N-O-W!!
BELOW: Infographic slide presentated by Muhyiddin at the 2014 Umno general assembly
Muhyiddin: “BN will lose with only a 2% vote swing”
Party deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin in his speech to the Umno general assembly on 25 Nov 2014 said:
“Maka dalam perhimpunan kali ini, saya ingin mengajak saudara dan saudari supaya ikhlas dan jujur dengan diri kita sendiri. Kaji adakah parti kita berada dalam keadaan yang selamat? Adakah parti kita disenangi oleh sebahagian besar rakyat? Adakah parti kita bakal beroleh kemenangan dalam pilihanraya akan datang?”
Muhyiddin also said that based on GE13 stats, 44 BN Parliament seats are “grey” – see chart above – where the ruling party won with small majorities of between 0.1 and 5.9 percent.
He warned that with a drop of two percent popular support, the BN haul of Parliament seats will be reduced to 103. A simple majority in Parliament requires a minimum of 112 seats. “BN will lose,” he declared.
“Dua peratus bukan banyak, kalau saudara kira bahagian parlimen, kalau undi sekian banyak, kiralah dua peratus turun, maka kita akan ada dalam keadaan amat berbahaya,” tegas beliau. See 29 Nov 2014 FMT report – ‘Berubah atau mungkin ditukar- Muhyiddin‘
DAP attitude is it’s a Dog-Eat-Dog world out there
The DAP has made no bones that they wanna kill Umno – that’s what the ABU! ABU! ABU! demented chant is all about. Pleeeaaase! A war general is what BN needs.
DAP’s shoot-to-kill policy
.
Najib has to take a tougher stance. If not, support for the BN will keep depleting and depleting so that by the time 2018 rolls around, BN will go into the general election as the desperate underdog.
And here is my frank opinion of the DAP. In my earlier posting yesterday, I made a mention of an abused dog in Foshan, Guangdong that had its eyes gouged out and its body tortured with knife stabs – gory photo HERE. That is what the DAP will do to Umno.
It is the fate waiting to befall Umno if the leadership still refuses to get its act together. The DAP is vicious!
BELOW: 95 percent Chinese voted for Anwar in Permatang Pauh
Helen Ang 
Too bad…
We see it coming… you see it coming…. they(bn) see it coming too… but they choose to close their eyes , plug their ears and shut down their brains…
I am coming , I am coming , I I I aa mm comingggggggggg ah ah aahh.
UMNO ,enjoying every bit of it’s ,what matter ,they win ,that what they will said .
Judging by the results in Rompin.
UMNO N BN will be wiped out in next PRU.
Not only NAJIB will lose his PM post, but the Malays will also lose its control over the country.
Orang MELAYU PERLU BERFIKIR DAN bertindak SECARA jujur DAN cerdik.
Biar korban satu orang, dari BERJUTA orang MELAYU jadi korban……
Not them, its their No. 1 man that doesnt understand what he is looking at and seeing… When he does, it will be over.
He also said that the people will have to trust him. If he does not get the majority to trust him, it will be over.
Adding to what you’ve said … by the time that he did understood, it will be over, too.
It looks like he does not need/have a ‘panick button’. But somebody might just come-up with, and press an ‘eject button’.
umno CAN WIN ge 14 WITH mAJORITY ONLY IF THEY KICK OUT mca AND PULL IN DAP.
Madness!
Kit Siang muka tebal already offered to work with Tun.
Tun rejected the offer outright. And Tun is right. Either way, i.e. losing the election to DAP or being co-opted by the DAP spells doom for the Malays and for Islam.
And Isma is right too. DAP is anti-Malay and anti-Islam.
The only way is for Umno to be led by a war general who can crush the DAP.
DAP was never this strong during Tun’s 22-year tenure. In 1999, when support for Umno deteriorated, it was PAS that was strong.
The DAP winning the GE is a disaster for Malaysia.
Catastrophe … Malaysia’s version of an-Nakba.
No need kick out anyone. Just need to gerrymander the constituencies. Create more parliament seats like Kapar (100,000 voters) vs Putrajaya (8,000).
Correction:
Kapar (145,000) vs Putrajaya (16,000)
I agree with you that there is a great discrepancy between Putrajaya and Kapar.
However, let’s put aside Putrajaya for the moment for its status as our country’s administrative capital (special case) and give us the next smallest constituency. Labuan is small too but we’ll look at the ones in the states – not FT.
Some of the Malay seats were big as well even when in BN hands, such as Shah Alam.
Parliamentary seats with fewer voters in Sabah and Sarawak are justified due to the size of the two states.
The interior of Borneo is not densely populated, obviously, and although the Sabah-Sarawak seats have fewer voters, they cover a really large area and are not easily accessible – have to use boats to reach by river.
As for Perlis, the state has a small population. Naturally a Perlis Parliament seat would be smaller than Subang Jaya. We have one man, one vote but the value of each vote is not equal – granted.
I agree with the weightage given to rural and Sabah-Sarawak constituencies. The Reid Commission recommended that the difference should not exceed 15 percent.
It is clear that the current BN is facing a slow death maybe not in the next GE14 but perhaps within a decade with the current style and system of politiking.
Most Malaysians are moderates and liberals even if they are the religious pious types in nature and quite silent too in politiking. The only time they exercise their power is during elections when any political parties know their support just from within their members ain’t good enough. Gerrymendering of constituencies also only work to a certain extent for, too blatant an attempt would only tarnish whoever is the winner for being called cheaters. It also denigrates whoever forms the Govt in the eyes of the World unless Malaysia wishes to join the exclusive clubs of North Korea, some African and South American countries.
The good old days of raising humanistic emotional issues just before elections like race and religion, giving bribes and promises, symphathies or in some cases creating imaginary threats and fears to cow the voters ain’t going to work very much except to those who are information deficient in this information age. Likewise using the old methods of diseminating information by disinformation, misinformation or thru places where masses congregate like religious places, institutions, community gatherings also has limited impact compared to the information flow bombarding the world including Malaysia.
Nowadays, except in the remotest of places, where there are no smartphones, no handphones, no twitter, no skype, no facebook, no msn, no yahoo , no internet, no www, etc everyone and everybody will need to communicate via these mediums. It does not matter whether you can be the chief high priest, kings, emperors, fishermen, farmers, labourers or working 7×24 to make a living yet it will slowly creep into everyone’s lives sooner or later.
It has gone beyond the critical base stage of a mass base of information rich voters and when people lies or cheats it is just a matter of time before they are found out and you just can’t hide quietly again. It’s even recorded in history for the future somewhere, someplace by somebody in someone’s archives the minute it is written or spoken. It has become the angels within our midst.
Having said all that, don’t you think it is not political parties which matters so much nowadays but individuals who thru these powerful information may one day rise up to move, motivate and determine the outcome of elections?
And it will be those who truly cherish freedom, humanity, morality and respect the rights and beliefs of others.
re: “Likewise using the old methods of diseminating information by disinformation, misinformation …”
The Malaysian Insider is the undisputed champion in this area.
re: “when people lies or cheats it is just a matter of time before they are found out and you just can’t hide quietly again”
TMI has been caught lying and cheating so many times but it makes no difference to their fan base. (Terkini Hasan Malek pula yang dok komplen.)
re: “And it will be those who truly cherish freedom, humanity, morality and respect the rights and beliefs of others.”
Dandy is regurgitating the standard lines (words) he was taught in the DAP propaganda school.
this dandy is suffering from dapster syndrome. the malays have been provoked again and again by dapsters and evangelist and yet he has the cheek to preach us the need to respect rights and beliefs of others. perhaps he needs a slap of two after saying that.
Perhaps you spare us your c*** here and save it for the Sekolah Demokrasi classes.
Almost every point you raised is completely wrong and off the mark. This is sort of feel-good talk will work in Sekolah Demokrasi or in some trendy cafes in Bangsar or Subang Jaya but not in the real world.
Take your point about most Malaysians only exercising their power during elections. May I point out to all those wild and violent BERSIH rallies and how those religious, environmental and other groups joined hand with PR to create chaos. Go to any church on Sundays in Klang Valley or other major urban centres such as Georgetown, JB, etc you will see how “religious” Malaysians mixing politics and religion.
As for propaganda, PR and their alliances are using Nazi-style tactics to transform white lies into gospel truth. In fact the main thrust of PR’s strategy is use accusations and lies to defeat BN rather than facts. That’s why all PR leaders are far more active in the ceramah circuit and social media than actually debating in the parliament or turun padang to help rakyat in their constituencies.
Bangsar and Subang Jaya are real and their ideals are reflected in their votes.
Sekolah Demokrasi? Hope there are more of those. Everyone can benefit from more education on the subject. Only then we would be spared from everyone making up their own version of it.
When I heard the announcement, I thought the same thing. BN votes were reduced, while votes for PAS remained consistent.
But I actually heard someone (pro-BN analyst) put a positive spin on it while voicing his opinions on one of those PRK programs last night. He said votes for Umno increased to 60% of voter turnout yesterday compared to about 56% in PRU13.
I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry. If the Umno heads look at it that way, well RIP Umno for GE14. Only consolation was, Hishamuddin looked upset with the results (or maybe that was just fatigue from campaigning.)
re: “someone (pro-BN analyst) put a positive spin on it”
Hahahahaha
The current Umno guy’s majority slashed by 40 percent.
Clarify: ‘his’
To be pedantic, I meant by-election majority decreased vis-a-vis the BN majority obtained by JJ previously.
Clarify: ‘his’
To be pedantic, I meant by-election majority decreased vis-a-vis the BN majority obtained by JJ previously.
It is usual for a by-election to have much lower turn-out than the GE and 73% is not unusual or low for a by-election. The Teluk Intan by-election had 66.7% voters’ turnout, kajang 72%, Pengkalan Kubor 72%, Bukit Gelugor 56%, etc.
And that it is a traditional BN stronghold and there is not much at stake probably could account for the lower turnout. However you could be right that it might also signal voters’ discontent on what’s happening in the country in regards to GST and other issues.
To me the 2 key points are:
1. No additional votes for PAS. So even if the BN supporters are unhappy they would rather stay home than vote for the Talibans.
2. The PAS machinery – I am impressed that PAS is able to ensure almost all its supporters to go out and vote. It shows that PAS is united despite all the wayang kulit with their partners in crime in PR. Which means the PAS supporters don’t give a s**** about the grand alliance of Pakatan.
I am more inclined to see the PP by-election result. This by-election has bigger political implication and it would be interesting to see the voting pattern. PR, especially DAP is already sounding the alarm about possibly losing the seat due to lower turn out. I wonder why they are worried since they claim voters are fed up with BN. Irrespective of the turnout, theoretically PR should win comfortably since it is in Penang and it has always been a PR seat.
True, the turnout dropped drastically but PAS managed to get all its supporters out nonetheless. Now project this same scenario to GE14.
Pakatan esp. the fanatical DAP get all their supporters out plus drawing them back from across the Causeway (workers in S’pore) and flying others home from abroad with a little help from TalentCorp. The BN supporters stay at home and sulk.
True, the turnout dropped drastically but PAS managed to get all its supporters out nonetheless. Now project this same scenario to GE14.
Pakatan esp. the fanatical DAP get all their supporters out plus drawing them back from across the Causeway (workers in S’pore) and flying others home from abroad with a little help from TalentCorp. The BN supporters stay at home and sulk.
They are just whipping up a frenzy, typical DAP style propaganda. I bet they will win the seat with an even bigger majority now that the ketum is languishing in Sg Buloh prison through the sympathy card and the usual lies and half truths.
Drama from Penang.
http://khairulryezal.blogspot.com/2015/05/3-pengundi-hantu-berbangsa-cina.html
“3 pengundi hantu (phantom voters) berbangsa Cina telah menggunakan alamat rumah Ketua Pemuda UMNO Permatang Pauh, Abu Bakar Sidekh Zainul Abidin. KP UMNO ini telah menduduki rumah berkenaan di alamat No. 25, Taman Arowana, Permatang Tengah, Pulau Pinang sejak dulu lagi.
3 pengundi Cina masing-masing bernama Cheng Pei Cian, Cheng Wei Te dan Cheng Jia Gian pastinya tidak mempunyai hubungan persaudaraan dengan Ketua Pemuda UMNO ini.
Read more at http://khairulryezal.blogspot.com/2015/05/3-pengundi-hantu-berbangsa-cina.html#y6zDcI3IcZa7Xvgh.99“
Had this been UMNO/BN supporters, the whole social media will go ape shit and MI & MKini will be printing screaming headlines for days.
Voting has not started and yet Mkini has already put up the results.
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/297371
“ANALYSIS When the Permatang Pauh by-election campaign took off on April 25, keen political observers predicted a win for PKR’s candidate Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.
They said her victory is a “foregone conclusion”.
cheng cheng cheng….
Do you not sense and feel what happen at Rompin in the PAS vs UMNO by-election?
It was just plain and simple boycott and betrayal by the Mahathirists and Mamakutty worshippers which caused the drop in votes for BN.
How come the Chinese and Indians and the Orang Aslis in Rompin voted for BN this time? If not for them the majority win will even be lesser by a few thousand votes.
The major lessons to be learn’t from Rompin which will be repeated in PP are:
1. The other races have abandoned PAS and will vote BN which is less likely to implement hudud. (BN will not say openly of course).
2. The Mathirists have now openly betrayed UMNO and voted for PAS. Otherwise PAS will not be able to sustain it’s number of votes.
In PP, it is going to be PKR vs UMNO. The likely voting pattern are:
1. Mahathirists saboteaurs will not harm as much as in Rompin cos they will not vote PKR either in PP.
2. The other races will fully support PKR besides the usual hardcore Anwar supporters.
3. Everyone in PP knows Wan Azizah will make a good opposition leader in Parliament inplace of Anwar to unite PR parties. It is just not possibel right now in PR to have either a PAS or DAP as opposition leader.
Listen, listen, listen.
re: “Listen, listen, listen.”
Dandy, oh Dandy. What’s with your vicious vendetta against Dr Mahathir? So typically Dapster.
And secondly, the Chinese only make up 2.49 percent of Rompin voters so they’re not a factor in the results. Don’t kelentong.
You got credit in BM or not, to be a blogger?
Your blog title is in shambles!
Dandy, oh Dandy, you’ve forgotten already that islam1st said your command of BN is tahap tongkang? Is BM a subject in the DAP Democracy School you graduated from?
“Wan Azizah will make a good opposition leader in Parliament inplace of Anwar to unite PR parties”.
Are you joking. She can’t even explain herself in the Malay language and you want to make her an opposition leader to unite PR parties?
You must be an asshole for the pleasure of her husband.
To me, she is most suitable to be used as a barua DAP.
Uweks..with your listen3x…so outdated and old school…
wahlao…semua pun pakai BOOM saje..Paling penting adalah NAJIB mesti undur sebelum BN terkubur..ini akan menyebabkan parti ini tenggelam dgn pantas sebabnya..ahli sendiri pun tak tahan dgn cara NAJIB yg hanya jaga pocket sendiri dan bukan rakyat. NAJIB teruskan BR1M sebab dpt habuan..bayangkan kerajaan umumkan jumlah wang dikeluarkan tapi tahukan anda berapa byk rakyat yg diberi luus tetapi TIDAK MENDAPAT WANG dan 1000rm dibahagikan 4kali kasi??250rm boleh buat apa skrg?? Yg balance guna utk rolling byr interest 1MDB dh pasti..3bulan dpt senang dan ini mmg statergi NAJIB guna..dari 2kali tambah jadi 3kali dan 2016 plak jadi 4kali (250rm X 4) btul stupid joke dlm dunia 2016..nk bantu rakyat kononnya…funny loh.