Kesan daripada ‘urban tsunami’ yang melanda PRU13, Umno ketinggalan sebagai sebuah jaringan kuasa politik ala kekampungan sahaja yang sekarang ini terpaksa bergantung kepada undi Orang Asli untuk dapat menang kerusi (bagi calon-calon parti komponen BN bukan-Melayu).
Jadual di bawah menyenaraikan kawasan Parlimen di ibu negeri-ibu negeri.
Kerusi yang dipegang Ahli-ahli Parlimen BN ditandakan biru dan yang dipegang Ahli-ahli Parlimen pembangkang ditandakan merah.
Gejala urbanisasi bermakna bahawa menjelang tahun 2020, tiga-perempat penduduk negara akan menghuni di bandar (lihat carta palang bawah).
Di mana letaknya ‘moral legitimacy’ BN sebagai parti pemerintah kelak sekiranya gabungan yang diterajui Umno itu hanya mampu bertapak di kawasan-kawasan pedalaman dan terpencil?
Itupun di samping kalah undi popular.
Teknik ‘slash and burn’
Sifat Umno kian diperlihatkan sebagai semakin ultra, pelampau agama serta suka membuli kaum-kaum minoriti.
Pendekatan Umno ‘Baru’ (kelompok yang sedang mengamok dengan Najib) nampaknya ikut kaedah Tebang dan Bakar …
Ugut dan Gertak
Robohkan dan Ranapkan
Sebaliknya puak evangelis pula rajin menanam tebu di tepi bibir, mengenakan tudung, songkok dan kain sampin serta tidak lekang dengan ucapan “Insya’Allah, kita semua bersaudara”.
Pendekatan Umno slash and burn, pendekatan DAP pula song and dance.
Agaknya golongan muda yang bakal layak menjadi pengundi baru buat pertama kali dalam PRU14 – yang bilangan mereka berjuta-juta orang – akan lebih teruja dengan pendekatan Pakatan (misalnya Nurul Izzah yang muda dan berwajah cun) ataupun akan lebih meminati keterampilan Umno yang bertulang belakangkan makcik-makcik Kak Ijat?
Cuba tengok pada maskot ‘Ubah’ … so cute and friendly.
DAP begitu mahir dalam bidang pemasaran dan berkali-kali lebih cekap mempropaganda.
Imej Pakatan yang setiakawan and sanggup berkongsi
Tengok pula pada imej Umno ultra …
My way or the highway
… cantas cantas cantas
politik kolot
marah marah marah bakar bakar bakar
Sila baca juga:
Helen Ang 
So it this Pakatan’s fault or voter’s fault?
I thought we already agreed that the national slogan is “Everything is Umno’s fault”.
The time will come when we malays run amok…. On UMNO that is.
Ya we did!!!
I wonder how big the gap is going to be in GE14 when it comes to the popular vote.
The urban vote is gone now. Still some people can still delude themselves into thinking this is just a minor blip.
Then there are the vultures who are busy robbing what’s left of the family jewels. See the appointments of certain individuals to positions of power in government linked companies.
They know the party is coming to an end soon. It is like this. There is a banquet. The rule is simple. You come in early and you get to feast on the best servings. The latecomers are going to pick what’s left.
Looking at what’s left of the family jewels, there’s still time for the latecomers to profit from them. All they have to do and remember to do is to wash themselves clean after the feast.
My main concern now is, will the losers accept defeat ? The other side, the Opposition, they have time. They can wait. Look at their leaders. Most of them are young, media savvy.
You know what ? People, young people especially, they just love the latest craze. The Opposition leaders know if they can occupy the minds of the youths with what’s hip and trendy, they have the youth vote with them.
As you yourself have said so many times, there will be millions of new, young voters eligible to vote in GE14. Now, how many BN leaders have managed to connect with these millions of newbies ?
If BN do win the GE14, it will be a very narrow margin. Then things will get really interesting.
I m reminded by how the Ancient Chinese waged their wars. It goes like this.
“Do not confront the enemy head on. Use the indirect method. Divide the enemy. Create distractions. Then wear the enemy down bit by bit. When the enemy is exhausted, attack him with full force”
As I have said, the urban vote is gone. Now the Opposition is focusing on the rural and East Malaysia vote bank. The pattern will be repeated there.
My own observation is that, GE14 is too early for the Opposition to capture Putrajaya. More precise, and here’s my bet, the Opposition will occupy Putrajaya in GE15.
re: “Look at their leaders. Most of them are young, media savvy.”
Yes. Like the American Christian televangelists. Bijak menjual air liur.
So many of the DAP Aduns are only in their 20s and early 30s. If DAP letak tunggul kayu pun boleh menang. Their branding is rock solid.
Umno on the other hand is rife with warlordism, which determines the candidates, whom are not so young and far from media savvy. Their gaffes are exploited to the full as snazzy soundbites by Pakatan.
re: “As I have said, the urban vote is gone.”
*Note that half the state capitals (
7 cities) 6 cities out of 14 states are in DAP hands.re: “Now the Opposition is focusing on the rural and East Malaysia vote bank. The pattern will be repeated there.”
Yes. The DAP juggernaut has already rolled in that direction. I can only roll my eyes at Umno’s ineptitude. And now Umno is bullying the poor and marginalized Indians. Nice.
___________________________________________________________________________
ADD ON (12.55pm)
*However if you can accept that DAP controls KL … it’s six state capitals plus the federal capital.
RALAT
Sorry, I double counted Ipoh Barat and Ipoh Timur.
DAP hold seven seats / six state capitals: Georgetown (Tanjong constituency), Ipoh, Seremban, Kota Melaka, Kuching and Kota Kinabalu.
Plus in Kuala Lumpur: Bukit Bintang, Cheras, Kepong, Seputeh & Segambut
Quality of living in urban areas which are expensive is main factor that urbanites are angry at the govt.
20-30 years ago, give the low income urban a dhing grimy flat, they will be bersyukur tujuh petala langit, but now they still get same poor quality low income housing (dont be deceived by the cheerful pink PPR, go there yourself to see how incondusive it is for family life), not to mention poor transport (low income lose time and $$$ commuting), schools like factory (cement floor), and stressful living environment not to mention low wages (work 8am-9pm at kedai makan only paid RM800 even in KL, factory workers paid only at most RM1500 with overtime after 5pm and weekends).
Meanwhile urban middle income families may look nice with their two cars a house, a condo and terrace house, but behind the scene, its chasing after the due dates for loan and credit car repayments, paying tuition fees, not to mention that middle income workers also treated like coolies at office, coming home late, work at weekends no thanks to poor employee protection and rights.
Nacheap is doing the right thing with the BR1M, PR1MA and KR1M to cover up the symptoms while long term planning like the MRT/Rapid service for all capital cities for transport is underway and the minimum wage to improve urban quality of life, but the problem is, it takes long time to sooth the urban rage.
I support Zahid’s tough stance in many recent issues. He’s 10 x better than the previous Menteri Amaran, Hishamuddin.
Sokong!
Harap2 tak hangat2 tahi ayam!!!
Noh Omar pun dulu garang…lepas tu TidurLah PM tukar bagi jaga sayur! Taikos/Taikuns pun bersorak gembira!
If Zahid manages to keeps his place in UMNO’s VP, Najib will not dare to touch him.
Aren’t Z and N running mates in the PAU election?
Soalan ada berapa orang Melayu dalam gambar di bawah?
IMHO, Pakatan will weaken and/or disintegrate internally without outside interference, if:
(1) Anwar’s dead – there isn’t anyone from PKR who can replace him as the gel that can bond PKR, PAS and DAP. PKR might disintegrate due to internal power struggle, OR
(2) LKS’s dead – DAP will self implode when the power struggle between the Lim’s factions and OTHER factions come head to head for power and control in DAP, OR
(3) Tok Nik Aziz and Hadi gone – PAS might break away from Pakatan.
That’s the only scenario that could improve BN’s chances of maintaining the status quo in GE14, if BN/UMNO/Najib can’t be bothered to wake up and change its poltiical strategy.
re (2)
The other factions have been subdued in the DAP and LGE has successfully installed his henchmen and his evangelist coterie.
Keep it up with the allegations of evangelists……
In a hindsight, I always look forward for Malaysia to have a two-party system, where the opposition party is strong enough (and honest too) to act as check-and-balance watchdog over the ruling party, and a ruling party decisive and corrupt-free enough to manage the country as it should be.
Alas, the opposition party has not been doing the things that it should be; and the ruling party hasn’t shown enough rigor to change its old antics. * sigh *
There were two major considerations that prevented me from even thinking of switching to the ‘dark side’;
(1) Pakatan’s choice of PM, Anwar (Nauzubillah….praying hard it will never happen)
(2) Pakatan was not an official coalition of political parties; PKR, PAS and DAP should contest under one coalition and under one political symbol.
I have this ‘eerie’ feeling that Pakatan could with the next GE14 if they could do away with (1) and contest under one offficial coalition (2). I am not surprised that there are not-so-die-hard BN supporters who have the secret desire to let Pakatan govern the country for a term and give BN coalition a huge and important lesson to learn for its selective abuse of the country’s riches.
The country is in for a very interesting time in the next 5 years……..
Helen,
It is understanble. Except for all PAS dominant areas, the rest are Chinese Majority. There is no news about it, it is a Chinese-Tsunami period.
UMNO/Malay has been relatively quiet and sensible for a long time with our “Tidak Apa Attitude”. But not anymore. Najib beri bunga pun dibalas tahi oleh kaum Cina. So apa lagi Cina Mahu?
Sekarang ni yang UMNO/Melayu boleh kasi adalah PENAMPAR JEPUN.
We won’t back off , not even an inch “Biar Putih Tulang, Asal Jangan Putih Mata”. As you said hati nyamuk tujuh dulang pun tak akan membuka hati mereka yang TAMAK dan HALOBA itu.
While KL, Ipoh and Georgetown can be said to be Chinese-majority areas, BN lost Alor Setar, Kuala Terengganu, Kuantan and Seremban.
As I said it was the Cina DAP’s votes that pushed the number for PAS and PKR. The Malays were still oblivious about the Chinese-Tsunami at time.
Plus there is also a factor of wrong “win-able candidate” being put by BN. Just like the case in Batu Pahat (where the voters have issues the candidate). These are only natural.
DAP is playing the race drum, the silence majority Malays will react accordingly. Even in the last election the PAS followers in Wangsa Maju I heard voted for BN, though BN lost.
Apa lagi Cina mahu?
Cina mahu Tanda Putera dihentikan tayangan disebabkan adegan kencing dekat rumah orang.
http://news.malaysia.msn.com/malaysia-news/showing-thursday-but-disputes-over-tanda-putera-aren%E2%80%99t-going-away
Tapi Cina macam LKS dan WKS tak komen apa bila Namewee kencing sama Melayu miskin mampu naik motor saja dalam Kara King.
http://news.malaysia.msn.com/malaysia-news/namewee%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Ckara-king%E2%80%9D-irritates-utusan-yet-again
Tanda Putera Cina screams double standard. Kara King kencing sama Melayu, Cina semua ketawa dalam panggung berdekah-dekah!
Utusan bising pasal adegan kencing, Cina kata Melayu mudah terasa, ultra sensitif. Cina marah pasal adegan kencing dekat rumah orang, Cina boleh pula overtly sensitif walaupun filem belum tayang!
Memang Cabai!
Apa lagi Cina mahu?
Cina mahu Melayu jadi bodo!
http://dinturtle.blogspot.com/2013/08/kara-king-adegan-kencing-satu-komedi.html
Kalau lawak itu tidak berbaur perkauman, kenapa dalam cerita Cina, pasal Cina, cakap bahasa Cina, watak-watak Cina, berlatar-belakangkan hidup orang Cina ada terselit adegan Melayu naik motor kena air kencing orang Cina?
Kenapa tidak diCinakan saja watak yang naik motor kena air kencing tu?
Lain semua boleh diCinakan!
http://dinturtle.blogspot.com/2013/08/kosmo-hari-ini-menjadikan-artikel.html
Apa dalam Malaysia ni orang Melayu hanya naik motor saja ka dan Cina takdak yang naik motor so, tak boleh nak letak watak Cina naik motor?
Memang Cabai!
Bacalah jawapan Datuk Raja Azhar Raja Abdul Manap di sini:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/what-insult-censor-understands-namewee-movie-cant-understand-utusan1
Tak ada keprihatinan terhadap bangsa sendiri. Perangai dia tak berbeza dengan si bangang Jahabar Sadiq -pembelot bangsa No. 1
semasa dalam Tanda Putera, LKS kencing kat tiang bendera Cina semua melenting macam nak rak. Tiang bendera bukan manusia.
namewee kencing kat orang lain takde pun cina nak komen atau buat bantahan. Memang jelas orang cina anggap orang melayu lagi rendah daripada tiang bendera.. bagi diorang melayu bukan manusia.
Cina kencing di mana sahaja. Kalau nak tengok, banyak rakaman cctv yang menunjukkan cina kencing serupa macam anjing. Daloam youtube pun boleh cari. Tak tau malu dan tak ada adab! Kenapalah tak ditekankan pelajaran adab kat SJKC?
Take a look at this [YouTube]. Even this is deem offensive to the CINA, tapi NAMEWEE kencing kat Melayu naik motor tidak…
Kelakar la Ini Negara!
And yet some CINA will label us terlebih sensitif dan industri filem tidak boleh maju dengan Melayu sikit-sikit nak terasa…macam Alvivi Buka Puasa Makan Tulang Babi episod la, tapi yang bantah iklan kat 8TV dulu tu siapa eh?
http://www.melvister.com/2011/08/iklan-ramadhan-8tv-hina-bangsa-cina-malaysia.html
Yang perempuan ni insulted, angry and in tears over a statement by some TV station prior to a TV programme kenapa plak eh?
http://manage.mmail.com.my/story/i%E2%80%99m-insulted-angry-and-tears-62499
And yet they dare to hairan why the hell the Melayus are insulted over Namewee kencing Melayu scene
http://my.news.yahoo.com/insult-censor-understands-namewee-movie-t-understand-utusan-230525765.html
Kelakar lah Ini Negara!
And lest we forget, that these are the people who had made themselves insulted by the Tsunami Cina terpacul sekali, walaupun hanya sekali, terkeluar daripada mulut Najib dan insulted again, bila mana Utusan tanya plainly, just, ‘Apa lagi Cina mahu?’
Yet the Namewee kencing Melayu scenes is just a comedy with zero racial slur intended, and we should not take it seriously?!
And don’t forget that we are made to believe that all is done in line with the spirit of 1Malaysia, that, a Cina should kencing on the pasangan Melayu, for what, to show the multiculturalism ala Malaysia? What about the Nissan Livina stereotypes that was being bandied around to the cheer and laughter of the Cina post Tsunami Cina post GE13?
How does this movie will fare for race relations in Malaysia? Will the semangat 1Malaysia that Namewee tries to impart will bring us closer or will it divides us further apart?
The LPF guy just goes to prove the Melayu Bodo myth!
Interesting fact for seremban Helen, a few data’s I can get my hand on, according to saluran mengundi, 98% to 100% chinese vote for PR/DAP. In some area the 98% vote for PR/DAP, 2% can be attributed to Indian and Malay. Thus, the assumption of Chinese Tsunami was easier accepted here.
Take DUN Ampangan/Parliment Seremban area for example, the saluran mengundi it majority malay area, the BN win but in chinese majority area, 98% vote go to PR/DAP.
Takes note that in Ampangan, there still a lot of tradisional Kg and old Taman Perumahan. Thus makes the Malay votes higer at some saluran mengundi. There also new exclusive taman perumahan where a lot of chinese start living in, which make the malay votes lower.
Also takes notes that a lot of Seremban Malay’s living and having their house there but their votes goes to their hometown.
Also, a lot of these Malay’s come from a place like Kuala Pilah and Rembau. Due to easier excess to town, a lot of folks now manage to travel to Seremban to work. Thus living outside Seremban is preferable for a lot of Malays now.
And those who living in Seremban, usually working in Lembah Klang.
I think it times for us to also see how the votes goes in tradisional Malay and tradisional chinese area in town like Seremban, Kuala Terengganu, Alor Star and Kuantan.
Take count on the new housing development to see how it can applied to the voting trends. I suspected, the winning of PR possible because of the increasing of new development area in this places where the money was abandon.
Maybe the old saying is true then, the chinese will go where the money flow????
; l sarah
Helen,
Something interesting about Alor Setar. UMNO better learn by now. Malays simply refuse MCA to represent a Malay area. resulting in one candidate objected by contesting under “bebas” banner.
He got some Malay votes, splitting the votes resulting in DAP winning the seat. Had UMNO contested, UMNO would have won easily.
The message is that Malays no longer want MCA to represent Malay areas. The era of MCA being alive simply because it wins in Malay areas is coming to its end.
PKR Chinese lawyer won Alor Setar.
dah kt bandar2 mmg byk cina, x kira la negeri tu malay majority ke ape..name nye pekan ke town ke ape sure cina bersepah..ye la buat bisnes..neway bn pun ade ketengah kan muka2 baru, tp still x dpt sokongan..camne tu..bila dap n pkr guna org muda, bg chance bagai..tp bile umno ngan mca pakai org muda, kalah teruk..so camne umno mca or BN as a whole nak berubah kalau still org pilih muka lama..
Kuala T’ganu of course Malay majority. Kuantan (62.5% Melayu), Alor Setar (61.6% Melayu), Kuantan (43.7% Melayu, 41.1% Cina) dan Seremban (43.7% Melayu, 41.1% Cina).
Hakikatnya BN tak laku di bandar :)
Of course BN takkan menang di bandar. Malay votes are split 60:40 BN:PR. So Cina votes become the determining factor and we know that they are 99% DAP. The only way for BN to be laku in bandar if Cina votes go back to BN.. maybe 30% or Malay votes solid 100% belongs to BN. Don’t think that will ever happen in the next decade or so though.
Even though I don’t like DAP but I have to admit that their ADUNs are very visible. Unlike BN ADUNs.. Nampak bila nearing election je.
Helen,
Malay votes at the best of time does not exceeds 70:30 split in favour of ruling BN. At 60:40 now compounded with 95:5 split of Chinese votes in favour of Pakatan, the task to winning in state capital seems impossible.
Work the math, even if Malay majority votes of 70% will not work in favour of BN.
The “slash and burn” is the only option. Why would the Malays care for the Chinese feeling? This is probably the best result that BN could get.
Chinese should not feel disenfranchised as they should know the maths as well. The feeling of being gerrymandered is the just a symptom of denial.
How would anyone agree that Chinese from Seremban should also govern a Malays from Kg Bongek. Jauh tu.
The question is, Najib and his merrimens are not fulfilling the duty of “slash and burn” enough. Why?
Still hopeful of Chinese votes? Probably Najib also still in denial stage. That will never happen la…
Helen,
Yup. Najib is in denial vote. He must count himself lucky as malays despite termed as “kampung” are able to see what he failed to see. That malays would fare much worse without UMNO.
So, They in drove voted UMNO. A very classic case where Malays were able to block PKR from capturing the state by winning 30 seats( UMNO 30 and solitary MCA).
PRU13 sends many messages. Now UMNO leaders would not dare to say “undi Cina adalah penentu”. Because at the end of the day, “undi Melayu” decided on who occupies Putrajaya.
I will give “pelempang’ to any UMNO member who said ‘undi Cina adalah penentu”.
Towns definitely will go to DAP.. Chinese been there since colonial days, lagi pun mana ada kampung nak pulang kecuali back to China, India or Indonesia?
Urban Malays, many are educated and financially comfortable so what they look forward to most are good facilities and efficient services. They need on the Opposition to do all these donkey work for them. (Govt slacking sikit people like Ambiga will go and BERSIH for them)
Melayu pun boleh duduk dalam town, tapi takmau, bising, kereta banyak, pencemaran kuat, Melayu suka beli rumah taman, reminiscence hidup di kampung!
Interesting post Helen.
I do wonder though if we would see any kind of reaction from the rural community with regards to UMNO’s dependence on them. Something like a Tea Party movement made up divergent Malay/Muslim interest from the rural heartlands as opposed to the manufactured pressure groups from UMNO.
Seeing as how UMNO has been quick to stamp down on “deviant” teachings, I reckon’ it would be harder for an Islamic group to gain traction but a Bumiputra rights group, fed up with the interlopers gaining Bumiputra status, economic deprivation, land rights etc.
Dear Helen,
I think your analysis may be misleading and does not reflect what the picture should be.
I think you should put race composition besides the result. Then we take a conservative position that 90% Chinese and 55% Indians vote for pr. ( I think in town the numbers are higher since more chinese voted this time around but we can have several permutations). If you do this I believe you would get that its not an urban divide as dap is spinning. Its still a race divide with a huge Malay support goes to the existing votes given to bn. If you have the postal votes then we have an accurate reflection.
For example in Bukit Bintang, pr got 30000 votes while bn 11000.
The approximate composition for registered voters (not the one voting) is c74.6% I:8.18% and Malay 16%. So assuming lah all goes out with same composition (of which in reality Chinese did go out in droves) and we take the assumed voting pattern, then c: 7.5 % and Indian 4% ( total 11. 5%) voted bn that would amount to 4700 votes. Remaining bn votes are from Malays ie 11000 – 4700 = 6300. What’s the total Malay votes under our assumption? 16% out of 41000 ie 6560. Meaning almost overwhelming Malay support bn.
This is in line when I did my own personal unscientific survey a day before election. I stop almost everyone at jalan TAR for half hour and my sampling got overwhelming Malay (more than 3/4) wanting to vote bn.
You should do a few permutations and as I did at random and get most Malay supporting bn. I had anomaly at Theresa Seputeh.
Then we exposed one big lie again. That dap spin this to hide their racist politics of putting the Chinese under siege.
Hi Ellese,
In all my previous postings I’ve gone along with the view that there was a Chinese tsunami and I stick to the same assessment.
However since the Chinese mostly reside in the towns and cities, the Chinese effect overlaps the urban shift.
Secondly, the urban effect further overlaps with the candidate and party choice of the young / first-time voters. The youth are exposed to a different form of communication and information gathering compared to their elders. Hence I believe that the opposition’s control of the social media helped push the young vote to Pakatan in GE13.
I hope the stark ‘red’ table will be a loud wake-up call to ring the alarm bells of the sleepy Umno strategists who are still letting the Bintang Lima get away with its Jerusubang agenda. Utusan is not a savvy, cosmopolitan paper and it is the target of a vilification campaign for the well co-ordinated J-Star evangelistas.
Between the two newspapers, The Sneaky Star (“DAP mouthpiece”) is far, far more sophisticated and comes off smelling of aromatic cafe latte compare to its opposite number (“Umno mouthpiece”) which comes off smelling of tempoyak.
Postscript:
My other observation is that in GE13 Umno did indeed recover the Malay ground it previously lost in GE12 even in urban areas, so your (Ellese’s) views and mine are not in conflict.
However the oppo may have made gains among Malay young voters, first-time Malay voters who were previously complacent and failed to register as well as the Malay fence-sitters. This is possible because there were more (a bigger number of) voters in GE13 compared to GE12, and the turnout was also higher in GE13 compared to GE12.
As written above. There’s not much difference from urban and non urban voting pattern. Its just a spin to legitimize DAP racial support.
Dear Helen,
Noted. But my point is that there’s not enough facts and stats to say its an urban and non urban divide. There’s no difference. We’re still racially divided. Bn’s support in urban and non urban area reflects the same pattern notwithstanding new voters with new media. It still reflects the Malays support towards bn and this support is consistent in urban and non urban area.
Agree that the racial divide is more pronounced than the urban-rural divide when it comes to voting pattern. Furthermore with the Chinese living mostly in the towns and cities anyway, the groups are subsets.
As for Umno support in towns, concur that not enough stats have been released. I blame Umno! for this, i.e. not divulging the BN portmortem findings. You can’t expect the extinct dinosaurs MCA and Gerakan to make known election data that are detrimental to their own parties.
Furthermore the former MCA “thinker-tankers” Rita Sim and Fui K. Soong have gone into private practice and put out an analysis (emphasising the urban-rural divide) that is favourable to Pakatan. Parallel how Ong Kian Ming jumped from Insap (MCA think tank) to Sedar (Gerakan think tank) to DAP (Guan Eng’s evangelista camp).
The information vacuum on election stats is UMNO’S FAULT.
I can agree with you. Sometimes I cringe at their inability.
I have no issue in you blaming Umno on this. But between us I think we tell it straight that the urban non urban divide is a myth by PR to hide their imbecile racial propaganda. Bn and pr don’t differ much on this but PR con people of their false righteousness.
re: “urban non urban divide is a myth by PR to hide their imbecile racial propaganda”
I can agree that Pakatan pushed the rural-urban divide theory to deflect from the Chinese tsunami.
Do the urban and rural electorates vote differently? Yes, I think they do.
I can agree with you that Umno got the majority of the Malay votes, both urban and rural.
I’ve done again 2 more simulations:
lets take lembah pantai.
Nurul 31000 Ning Chik 29000 (total 60000). (Rounded up). The registered voters composition is m: 54.5%, c: 37% and I 18.2%.
Based on the voting pattern assumption. 3.7% voters (chinese) and I:9% goes to bn. That would mean a total non Malay votes of 12% goes to bn = 7200. That means total Malay votes of Ning Chik is 29000 minus 7200 = 21800. Total Malay voters on the same basis would be 54.5% out of 60000 is 32700. Thus in terms of Nong Chik Malay votes he got 66.7% or 2/3.
Lets take cheras
Pr 48,249
Bn 10,840
Registered voters composition: M:9.56% C:84.14% I:6.16% L:0.14%
Assumed c: 8.4 and i:3% support bn, total non malays bn support is 11.4% of 59000 = 6726
Thus Malay bn support is 10840 minus 6726=4114
In terms of Malay voters there are 9.56% of 59000 = 5640
Thus Malay bn support equals to 4114/5640= 73%
What urban non urban divide? Its the same trend nation wide. There’s no increase in Malay support for PR pun to give impression its urban non urban divide. DAP is trying to hide again their racist propaganda effect.
Ning should be Nong.
My siblings and their offsprings live in Damansara. Their offsprings who were all educated in the UK are hardcore UMNO supporters and voted for BN/UMNO in GE 13. I also happen to know many other urban Malays who had voted for BN/UMNO in GE 13. The opposition’s assumption that many urban Malays had voted for them is just hogwash!
I believe many 1st time urban Malay voters will do the same in GE 14, thanks to the Chinese tsunami and the DAP Chinese shenanigans!
Parlimen kota melaka jelas Orang melayu Undi BN orang cina undi DAP. Kalah Kepada Dap sebab pengundi cina majority (jumlah pengundi 92322, melayu 35.72%, cina 59.08%, india 3.65% lain 1.5%)
Undi Dap 49521, BN 28775.
“DAP begitu mahir dalam bidang pemasaran dan berkali-kali lebih cekap mempropaganda” – Helen
How about the ‘Iklan Ubat Kuat’ and ‘Iklan Ah Long Fast Cash’?
Out of date. What a shame! E-commerce maa….
Fikir tajam,
Yup. DAP managed to get chinese to believe that this time around, UMNO would be toppled. So Chinese went all out to reject BN( or more importantly UMNO).
But the result is not to their expectation. UMNO despite bruises here and there manages to form the government DESPITE TOTAL REJECTION BY CHINESE.
And malays already gives up any hope of cooperation with Chinese. So we are quite amuse Chinese come in droves on Hari Raya official reception by the PM.
re: “So we are quite amuse Chinese come in droves on Hari Raya official reception by the PM.”
Doubtless the food is free but wouldn’t the transport cost to Putrajaya be costly?
Re. Doubtless the food is free but wouldn’t the transport cost to Putrajaya be costly?
It is just like living in B Bintang area. If you r smart u just call cab or walk, if it is nearby. Otherwise the traffic headache and parking fee will give you stomach ulcer by the time u get home.
Produk kebanggaan SJKC:
1. Ah Long = lintah darat kejam + sadis (jgn lupa bagaimana mereka merantai kaki dan tangan peminjam yg tak mampu bayar fa edah tak menasabah dulu).
2. Cinabeng = pengedar iklan haram Ah Long di serata tempat. Membaling kad perniagaan dan fliers di hadapan rumah di taman perumahan. (Siapa nak kutip sampah tu?)
3. *********** = penampal iklan ubat kuat merata tempat di jalanan, tembok penghadang jalan, pokok, papan tanda, dll. Apa punya sengkek teknik pengiklanan KUNO ini?
4. ******** = pendera sadis pembantu rumah asing
5. LeeKongKek = penjual VCD lucah dan VCD haram (tak de maruah punya olang!)
6. *** = Taukeh judi 4 Ekor dan judi haram (Gautama Buddha tak ajar pun berjudi)
7. *** = Taukeh pelacuran di merata bandar (Buddha, Jesus (penganut Evangelista Bintang 3) tak ajar pun jual *****)
8. Lim GuAn Jeng = penipu undi CEC. Woi Joseph! Jesus tak ajar lu tipu olang bodoh!
9. Alvivi = pelacur jalanan sampah ludah Bah Kut Teh yg telah *** emak bapak mereka sendiri.
10. Wee Meng Chee = [edited deleted]
I’ve edited your comment.
There are bad Chinese and there are good Chinese; there are rude Chinese and there are polite Chinese just like there are bad/good, rude/polite Malays, Indians and people of other races.
FYI: Lim Kit Siang and Lim Guan Eng are not products of Chinese school. They both went to Christian mission school.
From my experience moderating this blog and clearing some 40,000 comments over the last two years, I will tell you that the most vicious and malicious comments do not come from vernacular-schooled Chinese but from the evangelista Jerusubang Chinese.
Thanks a million Helen to be a nice/smart blogger. Juz wanna to express my frustration to Cinabeng.
Perhaps you should listen to this story:
My late father joined British Army in Singapore during the BMA occupation. His colleagues the Chinese and Indian in the same troops sent their newborn baby to our house at the barracks.
Yes. My beloved late mother who will look the babies until their wives fully recovered after a Cesarean section delivery.
Also, my late grandfather will keep/protect his neighbour Hokkien’s teenage girl in his Malay wooden house when the Japanese military invaded Malaya.
Unfortunately, after decades the Cinabeng really hurt me, the Malay Muslim community when they insult our faith & ibadah during the Ramadan.
Faith in God is the first pillar of Rukun Negara and we never interrupt their rights to express their own views, and practice their own faith. The question here is: Why the Malay Muslim should be insulted by this kind of people?
I share the frustration.
I have gone past the frustration…
I do agree with the article that most of the town won by Pakatan Rakyat. Perhaps we should start walk together and stop provoking each other between races. Its not good for our country. Besides its also affecting Sabah and Sarawak who have live harmony without any problem.