“Kerajaan minoriti” 45% Harapan #NotMyPM

May 22, 2018 at 2:17 pm 31 comments

Apa itu “kerajaan minoriti” mengikut takrifan Lim Kit Siang … “questioning legitimacy of Najib as PM of minority government (2013)”:

Sebelum tanggal 9 Mei 2018, DAP dan konco-konconya kerap mengata pentadbiran Najib sebagai sebuah “kerajaan minoriti” atas alasan BN tidak menang undi popular dengan melebihi 50 peratus.

Undi popular BN dalam PRU13 ialah 47.4 peratus.

Sekarang cuba anda teka undi popular Pakatan Harapan dalam PRU14 setakat berapa?

Keputusan PRU14

Mengikut kiraan Malaysiakini, Harapan – yakni beranggotakan PKR, DAP, Pribumi dan Amanah – memperolehi 5,518,638 undi semua dikira bersama.

Sebanyak 12,082,431 undi sah diterima, kata Malaysiakini. (Bererti undi rosak terkecuali.)

Maka sokongan undi popular yang diperolehi Harapan hanya 45.7 peratus.

Kalau ikut peratusan jumlah yang keluar mengundi (turnout) pula – iaitu seramai 12,299,514 orang – majoriti bagi Harapan jadi lagi tipis iaitu sekadar 44.9 peratus (45%).

Secara makro, Malaysia mempunyai 14,940,624 pengundi berdaftar. Jumlah 5,518,638 undi yang diberi kepada Harapan merupakan pecahan 36.9 peratus (37%) daripada pengundi berdaftar. Maksudnya 37 peratus pemilih (electorate) sahaja, secara keseluruhan, yang sokong Harapan.

Dalam sejarah tanahair, tidak pernah ada parti pemerintah yang memegang tampuk kuasa dengan bergalaskan undi popular yang begitu sedikit.

Biar dalam pilihanraya umum 10 Mei 1969 sekalipun – di mana parti Perikatan (Umno, MCA, MIC) kalah teruk – kerajaan yang bertahan masih mampu meraih 48.4 peratus undi popular.

Majoriti yang goyah, Pribumi jauh di belakang

Ada 222 kerusi dalam Dewan Rakyat. Maka paling minimum (111+1 =) 112 kerusi diperlukan untuk angka majoriti mudah.

Dalam PRU14 (sila lihat atas), Harapan membentuk kerajaan dengan 113 kerusi parlimen. Bermakna kemenangan Harapan beberapa hari lepas teramat kurang meyakinkan.

Sebenarnya kerajaan Harapan kahwin mutaah ini cukup lemah dan tidak kurang unpopular tetapi mereka bukan main cakap besar.

Kerusi parlimen 2018:

  • PKR — 48
  • DAP — 42
  • Pribumi — 12

Jelas nampak bahawa kerusi parlimen Pribumi berada di takuk yang rendah berbanding PKR dan DAP.

Namun pengerusi Pribumi bukan saja dianugerahkan jawatan perdana menteri tetapi partinya juga membolot tempat terbanyak di jemaah kabinet.

Tun Mahathir sendiri adalah seorang “perdana menteri minoriti” yang berupa wakil sebuah parti Harapan minoriti di kalangan sebuah kerajaan minoriti.

#NotMyPM

 

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31 Comments Add your own

  • 1. wawe  |  May 22, 2018 at 3:44 pm

    Terpaksa ikut minoriti sbb nak merasa menang.
    Kalau tak sampai kiamat pon masih jadi pembangang. Itu pon sekejap je la. Tak sampai 5 tahun lingkup phaprak phitnah.

    Reply
    • 2. wawe  |  May 22, 2018 at 3:50 pm

      I think after 2 years he is going to return the reign to the previous government. Did not he say he meant to right the wrong. His new found followers have their root in umno who form its 3rd generation. Btw, parti bunga was formed just a few months before ge. The next time around the 2nd gen ll hv the final say.

      Reply
  • 3. Surrhead  |  May 22, 2018 at 6:10 pm

    Pada suatu masa dulu, ada sekumpulan malaun pernah sokong kerajaan minority dgn angkuh…….bila kena kat dia, mula la di menggelupur…..kakakaaka……mmg binawe

    Reply
  • 4. HY  |  May 22, 2018 at 9:47 pm

    pr win popular vote in ge13 versus bn, which happen again in ge14. bn n pas is not a coalition, so pr not really a minority govt,

    Reply
  • 5. Azzym  |  May 22, 2018 at 10:45 pm

    kalau tolak dap makna mahathir bukanlah hebat sgt..menang pun dgn cara kotor..kempen ditabur dibesar2 dgn mcm2 fitnah bohong menghasut..

    Reply
    • 6. shukri  |  May 23, 2018 at 5:21 pm

      Memang mahathir kempen kotor fitnah mengutuk pribadi dll… tengok je tv3 suku sebelum ge14… mahathir je yang mengutuk… bn baca doa n bagi tazkirah je

      Reply
      • 7. Surrhead  |  May 24, 2018 at 3:29 pm

        terbaik….shukri…….

        Reply
  • 8. pemerhati  |  May 23, 2018 at 12:52 am

    jd maknanya majoriti rakyat tak suka dgn kjaan skrg lah ya.. tp knp diorg berlagak sgt..

    Reply
    • 9. Harlequin  |  May 23, 2018 at 9:02 am

      How you define majority?

      If PH got 45.7% of the votes, BN has only 33.8%.

      Reply
      • 10. Helen Ang  |  May 23, 2018 at 11:02 am

        Harapan got 45.7% of the ‘VALID’ votes. Undi rosak are spoilt and thus invalid votes.

        I would argue that invalid votes – ones spoilt deliberately – are also a strong expression of the voice of the people.

        The percentage of Harapan support calculated from voter turnout (instead of from ‘valid’ votes) is only 44.9%, i.e. people like Maryam Lee and Hafiz Baharom who presumably took the trouble to go to the polling centre to express their non approval of both Harapan and BN plus disinterest in the thrid parties/independents.

        Is it fair to count #UndiRosak as non-support for Harapan? I believe it is. So popular vote for the four parties in the Harapan pact (PKR, DAP, Pribumi and Amanah) is only 44.9%. Votes for Warisan in Sabah not included either.

        Support for BN is 33.2% (similarly calculating against turnout) while support for PAS is 16.9%. Hence the votes against Harapan are 50.1%. More than half (i.e. majority of) the electorate are against Harapan.

        A simple majority refers the figure above 50%.

        Granted Harapan is way more popular than BN. The general term employed would be to say that Harapan won a “plurality” of the votes, i.e. winner in a plural/multiple situation where no party singly achieved above 50% but the winner finishing ahead of the parties that are runner-up and in third place.

        Reply
        • 11. Kay  |  May 23, 2018 at 2:32 pm

          Mengikut kata2 supporter BN yang terdahulu, sapa dapat sekurang2nya majoriti mudah seat parlimen maka dapatlah ia memerintah malaysia. begitulah pada PRU sebelumnya hinggalah sekarang pada PRU 14.

          Merujuk pada PRU 13, PRU tersebut adalah 2 penjuru. antara BN dan PR. BN berjaya memerintah tetapi dengan jumlah poplular votes yang kurang dibandingkan dengan PR. dalam PRU 14, keadaan adalah berlainan, ia bebentuk 3 penjuru. PH, BN dan PAS. kalau ikut popular vote patut pecahkan kepada 3, ie. 33.33333% setiap penjuru. katakan, ambil lah 44.9% untuk PH, ia jauh melebihi 33.3333% dan jauh juga melebihi votes untuk BN atau PAS.

          Ya benar, ada lagi 55.1% yang tidak menyokong kerajaan sekarang, tetapi untuk berlaku adil, tolonglah pecahkan 55.1% tersebut kepada BN dan PAS. jika diambil sedemikian maka, 64.8% tidak menyokong BN dan 83.1% tidak menyokong PAS!

          Reply
          • 12. Helen Ang  |  May 23, 2018 at 3:37 pm

            Memang pihak yang kalah, yakni BN, beserta Third Force (PAS) kurang popular berbanding pihak yang menang dan berjaya jadi parti pemerintah. Sebab itulah si Dapsters mengejek pihak kami sebagai “losers”.

            Namun butir paling ketara yang diperlihatkan oleh PRU14 ialah jumlah majoriti (lebih 50%) yang terdiri daripada para penyokong Umno dan PAS adalah anti-Harapan.

            Intipatinya Harapan tidak mempunyai sokongan majoriti.

            Reply
            • 13. kay ka  |  May 24, 2018 at 9:51 am

              I think u dont get it. At 2 corners fight in pru13, pakatan rakyat passed that 50% treshold. But for pru14, the treshold is at 33.3333% as of the 3 corners fight. PH already passed that treshold at 44.9%.

              I dont care if PAS is weak. They contested 160 parliment seats.

              u never accept minority popular votes untill only now?

              Reply
              • 14. Helen Ang  |  May 24, 2018 at 10:23 am

                You’re the one not getting it. Fifty percent threshold is fifty percent threshold.

                The fact that PAS was with Pakatan Rakyat in 2013 and became a Third Force in 2018 is not an issue to the 50% threshold. PAS’s polical relocation no doubt impacts the Malay vote but popular will is reflected in the percentages – Harapan fails to cross 50% – nonetheless.

                Even in 2013 there were notable multi-cornered fights, e.g. in the Kota Damansara, Sungai Acheh and Jelapang state seats. Why spin about non-straight fights as if a majority (false premise!) can be lowered to 33.3%?

                Only in the fluid Harapan Land is black di-BERSIH-kan to white and vice versa.

                Reply
                • 15. kay  |  May 24, 2018 at 11:29 am

                  it is an issue. it will be harder to pass that 50% if there is 3rd force involved. admit it pls! nevertheless, 47.1% BN of PRU13 wasnt a problem then and why now it is a problem for 44.9% PH?

                  imagine dividing 100% cake (or voters) to all 3 forces, i have to say PH greedily took 44.9% of that cake. so unfair yes? …and yes, u can stick to that 50% that u cant even get at PRU13.

                  as of even at seats u mentioned, they were all local and isolated even at DUN level…

                  Reply
                  • 16. Surrhead  |  May 24, 2018 at 3:34 pm

                    Kay….Helen is just trying an “Arul Kanda”, hoping people would buy it and PAS heads did on 1mdb….

                    Reply
                • 17. tehtarik  |  May 27, 2018 at 9:14 pm

                  aiya who cares whether minority or majority govt. janji PH win, all else not important lo. janji umno is out Ruu355 is out, we dont really bother about others lo.
                  let you win lo HA. so what? the fact is PH is still the chosen one. even Sultans agreed and perkenan. 🙊😂😂😂😂😂

                  Reply
  • 18. Concerned citizen  |  May 23, 2018 at 10:28 am

    Our current government is actually very fragile especially with pribumi only having 12 seats.big problem will arise if dr m is not around.there’s bound to be chaos, disunity and greed for power.PH won because of dr m tsunami.period.once dr m is not around the malays esp the rural voters will rally back to malay leaders if umno revamps itself.no way the malays will rally with dap leaders for too long.even anwar has lost his charisma.he is a spent force but lurking around as if he is the TPM.Wont be long before he will be restless for power esp since dr m’s strategy is to get azmin to outshine anwar to balance anwar’s influence.dr m will always have something up his sleeve.pribumi is too weak.it will not survive beyond dr m and it will be sayonara once again to mukhriz.

    Reply
    • 19. Surrhead  |  May 24, 2018 at 3:37 pm

      anyone is allowed to have dreams….

      Reply
  • 20. tooyid  |  May 24, 2018 at 6:03 am

    Ini kerajaan minoriti. Jadi semua polisi populis yang dibuat untuk mengabui mata rakyat. Kalau negara bankrup pun tak apa dengan polisi populisnya. Hapus GST, hapus tol, tangkap Najib, rule of law entah ke mana.
    Mahathir hopefully akan sedar sebelum menemui penciptanya. Anwar pun dah umum nak bertanding sebagai ahli parlimen pada tahun ini. Setakat mana Mahathir boleh bertahan sebagai PM?
    Sosok Mahathir yang menyatukan pakatan ini. Kerajaan yang dibina atas fitnah tak akan kekal lama.

    Reply
    • 21. kay  |  May 24, 2018 at 10:21 am

      Sebelum ini supporters BN never mentioned pasal kerajaan minoriti. but why now? semasa PRU13, u been asked about that minoriti kerajaan. u know what u answered? u dont care bit! only parliament seats counts to govern the country u said. now sudah lain yek!… so my answer is i dont care too!

      Ya najib kena tangkap. apa yang tak betulnye? arul kanda pun tiba2 bagi jawapan tak pasti kpd unit dana 1MDB.

      Kerajaan yang dibina atas fitnah tak akan kekal lama… ini untuk sapa? BN?

      kamu ada TV123445566 radio utusan star and every media under u. thank god we got only intenet. mind you. we win lot of bandar seats. most bandar seats! bandar yang di mana paling ramai mereka yang memiliki kepentingan, ilmu, maklumat, ijazah, master, phd, harta etc… how come u said golongan ini yang senang difitnah?

      Reply
  • 22. Formerly Known as FHAAHD  |  May 25, 2018 at 8:33 am

    Helen talking nonsense yet again. Crossing the 50% threshold is irrelevant when it come to determining the majority. Recent elections in NZ and the UK had similar results.The majority is determined by simply having more popular votes than the rival coalition, something that BN failed to achieve in GE13.

    The thing that gives me most satisfaction in GE14 was how the blatant and disgraceful gerrymandering by the EC/BN actually backfired and gave PH more seats as a result. They never expected such a massive Malay swing and all those redrawn constituencies that were meant to get the cheats over the line ultimately gave PH the win.

    Reply
    • 23. Helen Ang  |  May 25, 2018 at 9:02 am

      Masih lagi nak tegakkan benang basah, wahai si Dapster?

      Already said Harapan won a “plurality” (the more accurate term to use), i.e. a winning majority relative to the parties in 2nd place (BN) and 3rd place (PAS).

      A simple majority has to be above 50% – this is not something you can parse.

      For the last five years ever since 2013, Kit Siang and his konco-konco had been labelling Najib’s GE13 administration as a “minority government”. Now going by the same concept and criterion (election result percentages), Harapan is identically a “minority government”. Unless you’re falling back on the trusty Harapan standby of one rule for your opponent and another different rule for yourself.

      Reply
      • 24. Formerly Known as FHAAHD  |  May 25, 2018 at 10:33 am

        Had BN and PAS joined forces in GE14, then they would be well entitled to state that PH is the minority govt as they would have garnered less popular votes than the BN/PAS coalition. They didn’t however so your article is irrelevant.

        Reply
        • 25. Helen Ang  |  May 25, 2018 at 10:46 am

          You’re in denial and still trying futilely to reduce 50% threshold to 33.3%.

          Although BN & PAS did not join forces, their voters are nonetheless anti-Harapan. The #UndiRosak people are anti-Harapan too as are the protest voters who cast their ballots for mosquito parties like PSM, PCM etc or for independent candidates. Together these add up to more than 50% against Harapan’s 45-48%.

          “Minority government” lah according to own definition framed earlier (2013-2018) by DAP itself.

          Reply
          • 26. Formerly Known as FHAAHD  |  May 25, 2018 at 11:12 am

            You have made another silly assumption here. Not all PAS supporters are anti PH, they are just pro PAS. We don’t know how a lot of these voters would choose to vote had PAS not been around. There is absolutely no guarantees that they would not have voted for PH, you are just trying to spin it that way.

            Tell me Helen, even after all the recent findings of stolen cash, designer handbags, jewellery etc, how can you still stay loyal to these bunch of thieves?

            Reply
            • 27. Helen Ang  |  May 25, 2018 at 11:49 am

              All of PAS’s contested seats are multi-cornered. The PAS voter rejected the BN and Harapan (boxes) on his ballot when presented with three or more choices.

              I’m not responsible for Rosmah’s handbags and jewels. Just because you voted Harapan does not entitle me to hold you responsible for the wealth of the Harapan chairman’s clan either. Don’t forget that Mahathir’s sons are billionaires.

              Reply
              • 28. tehtarik  |  May 25, 2018 at 1:35 pm

                aiik, now you support Pas pulak?

                aiyo, go and read your pass writings lo anx Pas lebais.

                such hypocrite you are HA. are you getting dedak from Pas lately?

                Reply
                • 29. Helen Ang  |  May 25, 2018 at 1:52 pm

                  Go right ahead. Please show (link) my blog readers my past writings on PAS.

                  Typical Dapsters serkap jarang. Pembohong, penipu, pemfitnah.

                  Reply
                  • 30. kay ka  |  May 26, 2018 at 6:42 am

                    Halo helen. Whatever it is, PH is the most popular parti now. Please use that simple majority of 50% to that of seats count only.

                    Pru13, PR was the most popular parti then. And now pru14 PH still got that most popular parti. Simple.
                    Tak perlu pusing2.

                    You pusing2 macam mana pun u still in the loser shoes. We won the parliament while making the most popular votes almong other parties…

                    Cake should be divided to 3 coalitions. Tapi u tak setuju. U mau jugak ikut cerita pru13 with 2 main coalitions. Itu cake kena kasi 3 orang sama adil. Itu adil punya treshold mesti 33.3333% how hard can it be? Thats why banyak your supporters all from longkang seperti itu jamal jamban.

                    Reply
                  • 31. kay ka  |  May 26, 2018 at 7:08 am

                    Another thing. Tak perlu sebut plurarity la. That plurarity u cant even get on pru13…

                    Reply

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