Pilihanraya akan diadakan pada 5/5.
Johor mempunyai sejumlah 26 kerusi Parlimen dan 56 kerusi DUN.
Peta persempadanan kawasan
1.58 juta orang pemilih
Pemilih biasa di Johor adalah seramai 1,550,848 orang, pengundi tentera 13,736 orang, pengundi polis 11,040 orang, dan pengundi luar negara 280 orang.
Nisbah pengundi mengikut etnik Melayu-Cina ialah lebih kurang 5:4 (angka dibulatkan).
Dalam PRU12, Johor yang mencatatkan paling banyak undi rosak — 28,709 di peringkat Parlimen dan 25,455 di peringkat negeri.
Kerusi Parlimen di Johor adalah simpanan tetap bagi bekas presiden-presiden MCA
- Dr Chua Soi Lek: Labis (2004-2008)
- Ong Ka Ting: Tanjung Piai (2004-2008), Kulai (2008-2013)
- Dr Ling Liong Sik: Bekas Ahli Parlimen Labis
- Neo Yee Pan: Bekas Ahli Parlimen Muar
- Lee San Choon: Bekas Ahli Parlimen Segamat Selatan
Baca juga:
Ops Todak
Dinasti Lim sedang sibuk campurtangan di Johor. Guan Eng yang kemaruk kuasa mahu memastikan cengkaman kuku besi ke atas partinya serta ke atas masyarakat Cina sampai ke hujung semenanjung.
Laporan Utusan kelmarin (9 April 2013):
“Tiga pemimpin kanan DAP Johor meletak jawatan sebagai ahli jawatankuasa pilihan raya parti negeri dipercayai kerana membantah campur tangan Penasihat DAP, Lim Kit Siang dan anaknya, Lim Guan Eng dalam pemilihan calon di negeri ini.
.
Norman mengaku perintah tutup mulut telah dikeluarkan oleh DAP pusat. Namun difahami bahawa timbul pertikaian tentang senarai calon-calon DAP di Johor.
Guan Eng dikhabarkan telah menolak beberapa orang pemimpin yang nama mereka dicadangkan oleh DAP Johor tetapi sebaliknya setiausaha-agung parti itu mahu meletakkan orang pilihannya dengan tujuan untuk melunturkan pengaruh Dr Boo.
Fong Po Kuan – penyandang kerusi Parlimen Batu Gajah, Perak – yang sebelum ini diuar-uarkan akan berpindah untuk bertanding di Johor baru-baru ini mengumumkan bahawa beliau mengambil keputusan berundur daripada persada politik.
M. Kula Segaran, penyandang kerusi Parlimen Ipoh Barat yang lama bertelingkah dengan warlord sepupu Ngeh dan Nga, menyatakan dirinya bersedia untuk bertanding di Johor sekiranya disuruh oleh parti.
Politik perkauman
Pilihanraya Johor menjanjikan pertarungan yang amat menarik kerana ia petanda kepada aras suhu politik di kalangan pemilih kaum Cina.
Perangkaan dalam jadual di bawah, yang disalintampal dari Malaysiakini, disediakan oleh pengarah pilihanraya PKR Johor Steven Choong.
Ia menunjukkan pola ‘split voting’. Dalam PRU12, orang Cina Johor yang mengundi calon DAP tidak memberikan undi mereka kepada calon PAS manakala orang Melayu Johor yang mengundi calon PAS tidak memberikan undi mereka kepada calon DAP.
Pilihanraya 2008
Bilangan undi di lima kawasan Parlimen Johor — Segamat, Labis, Ayer Hitam, Kluang dan Tanjung Piai.
Calon-calon pembangkang yang bertanding dalam PRU12 di kerusi-kerusi tersebut ialah Pang Hok Liong (DAP), Teo Eng Ching (DAP), Hussin Sujak (PAS), Ng Lam Hua (DAP) dan Ahmad Ton (DAP).
Rumusan
Hanya Johor negeri tunggal di mana kerusi-kerusi majoriti Cina belum lagi disapu bersih DAP.
Jikalau sokongan masyarakat Cina Johor turut diserah kepada DAP juga, maka akan terbuktilah kesahihan teori bahawa parti tersebut sudah berjaya meraih 90 peratus sokongan kaum Cina.
Johor juga merupakan medan tempur yang bakal menentukan hidup matinya MCA.
Baca juga:
Helen Ang 
You suck. You never express your original idea nor clear support of any party. You just want people to know that you are on-the-fence voter/supporter. You just want to make a contact with all party. And you knew that voting-pattern in Johor already changed. Rubbish article.
Probably KOMTAR should increase you commission, from RM5/post to RM5 tiga suku / post.
bloated23 is an example of classic stupidity. Helen Ang doesn’t need to be BN supporter or any particular political party fanatic to reject Pakatoon especially the supreme racist DAP.
go bloating in hell with your rubbish mind. your handle name just shows the mental state of all Pakatoon lunatics from the leaders to its people.
You’re right, nowadays most of the Pakatan Rip-Off supporters think that anyone who oppose their ideas is a definite UMNO or BN supporter when in truth they don’t realize that not all who oppose the opposition are UMNO or BN members, they are just average people who do their homework.
you lagi suck, just because you can’t label her the way you wanted to, you failed to pigeon holed her into anything (she’s not melayu but seems fair and moderate), you acted macam kera kena belacan and try to bagi helen malu by out of this world-super suck commentary? Try la write your own non rubbish article, expressing your original idea, I for one nak tengok you suck ke tak suck?
BTW helen, should the MCA and Gerakan lost their ‘Chinese Seat’, I don’t think the semangat setiakawan bull**** should be applied by giving them jawatan dalam kerajaan. This has to stop. Mentaliti subsidi has to stop throughout. Don’t you agree?
Kerbau dipegang pada talinya, manusia dipegang pada janjinya. Saya pun mahu MCA agar mengotakan kata-katanya bahawa parti itu akan menarik diri daripada menyertai jemaah menteri serta manyandang jawatan-jawatan lain kerajaan.
Lanskap pemerintahan negara wajar dilakar semula pasca-PRU13.
Helen,
Whatever nasty comments I gave on MCA, I must say that Dr Chua did the right thing by saying MCA will reject any Ministerial post should it fare badly in the coming election.
It will naturally let the chinese think whether it serves their purpose to reject outright MCA when Malays voters are leaning towards UMNO in massive scale.
Just in case you missed this, http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sideviews/article/is-there-still-a-point-to-mcas-existence-the-malaysian-insider/
Did you read Veera’s piece today? Or rather yesterday (Wed). He quoted Goebbel’s doctrines extensively.
Thanks, Will do so and get back to you.
Helen,
paparan yang anda buat kali ini amat jelas menunjukkan DAP memang telah merancang untuk menghapuskan MCA dan perancangan DAP ini memang ‘kelihatannya dialu-alukan’oleh pucuk pimpinan MCA kerana jika tidak, tentulah ‘the star’ tidak berpeluang untuk condong kepada DAP selama lebih 5 tahun!
saya melihat masyarakat Cina memang majoriti agak keras suara mereka kebelakangan ini dengan nada ‘kebencian’ terhadap kerajaan sedia ada.
rata-rata yang saya temui samada pemandu teksi, kontraktor dan juga golongan profesional mempunyai pandangan yang agak sinis terhadap MCA. dan apabila diajukan soalan tentang pendapat mereka terhadap DAP, kelihatan jelas jawapan mereka adalah sama iaitu, ‘DAP sangat bagus kerana keberanian’ pemimpinnya bersuara.
salah satu taktik berkesan untuk meyakinkan orang lain ialah persuasive statement walaupun tanpa fakta atau bukti jelas. method ini sering kita lihat dijadikan amalan oleh pemimpin seperti LGE dan Anwar. masyarakat umum melihat mereka ini mempunyai keberanian dan umum percaya hanya mereka yang berani adalah mereka yang benar..!”.
SPR sudah pun umumkan tarikh pilihanraya dan MCA tentunya memerlukan lebih dari sekadar ‘nasib-baik’ untuk kekal relevan dalam mewakili bukan hanya orang Cina tetapi meraih keyakinan orang Melayu juga.
Apapun, melihat daripada sejarah 5 tahun lepas, MCA bukan sahaja tidak lagi mempunyai nasib-baik kerana dipimpin oleh CSL yang penuh kontroversi tetapi MCA juga tidak lagi mempunyai ‘magis’ untuk memenangi hati kaum Cina sendiri sekalipun mempunyai wang yang banyak hasil dividen daripada the star….
Biar diorang buat bisnes aje dengan The Star berfungsi sebagai syarikat induk yang mencabang kepada perniagaan-perniagaan lain dalam pelbagai sektor.
betul walaupon contractor atau bisnessman cina yg bagi rasuah dan hanky panky atau pemandu teksi yg tak pakai meter pon marah dgn mca.. marah mca kerana rasuah atau mca tak cukup semangat rasist cina kalau dibandingkan dgn dap?? err..dap parti cina??
Reblogged this on jiwa hamba.
Dear Helen,
I don’t know. I think when both sides have released their candidates, we can then evaluate the situation better. Johor is not negeri paling panas if PR don’t even nominate enough candidates to topple BN.
I think Kedah, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang and Sabah should be more interesting. BN would like you to think they have a bright chance to retake Perak and Selangor and PR is cocksure of Penang and Perak.
I think there should be some surprises in Melaka and Kelantan, but local factors in Terengganu, Perlis and Sarawak is more important. All this is sheer speculation at this point, but I think the importance of Johor is overstated, simply because it is MCA’s supposed last bastion.
The Malay vote is irrevocably split. The question is how many PAS supporters will be willing to choose UMNO. Najib can’t bank on deserters because new voters clearly tilt in favour of the Opposition.
Leaving out Sabah & Sarawak which I’m unfamiliar with …
According to Oracle Daim, the cliffhanger is Perak, with Kedah & S’gor up for grabs.
I been told by several people in the know that TGNA is losing his allure, so you’re likely correct to predict some surprises in Kelantan.
However I pick Johor as hot b’cos for the first time that I’m aware (or more accurately, the first time that it’s so big), the face-off is between Umno and DAP in Gelang Patah.
This development is a milestone in itself showing that neither MCA nor Gerakan are in a position any longer to confront DAP. It squares with my pet theory of the Two Race System shaping up.
Also I’m sympathetic to the MCA’s death throes. If there are 3 words to describe the MCA today, those 3 words would be “Wow, terribly unimpressive” (with the exception of CSL).
I can fill you in a bit on Sarawak.
PBB will win all the seat they contest. No problems there mainly due to Taib’s influence.
As for SUPP, they’re contesting in 7 seats. Serian is sure win as it is contested by a Bidayuh in a Bidayuh majority area. Sure loses in Bandar Kuching & Miri. Probable defeat in Stampin where deputy works minister, Datuk Yong Khoon Seng elected not to defend his seat. Tough but winnable battles in Chinese majority seats of Sarikei, Lanang & Sibu.
SPDP looks vulnerable in 3 seats; Mas Gading, Saratok & Bintulu. Mas Gading due to the unpopular Anthony Nogeh who’s seen by many as a puppet replacing incumbent Dr Tiki Late who was expelled alongside the “elected 6”. Saratok due to President Datuk Seri William Mawan offering himself as a candidate. The expulsion of the “elected 6” was due to their challenging Mawan for overstating his welcome as president. Bintulu due to Chinese majority & incumbent Datuk Tiong Thai King’s role in the PKFZ scandal.
PRS will face not only PR in the 4 seats they contest. They will also face Sarawak Worker’s Party led by Larry Sng. Larry is the son of Datuk Sng Chee Hua, a timber tycoon & known close friend of Anwar. Larry challenged president, Datuk Seri James Masing & was subsequently sacked. In grudge match part 1, incumbent Larry’s proxy, George Lagong won Pelagus state seat in 2011. Expect part 2 to be fiercely fought especially as the Sng’s are popular amongst the native Ibans.
All in all, I’d hazard a guess that BN will win 25 seats at least out of 31. Repeating their performance of winning 30 in GE12 is out of the question. That said, Taib led time will still wow the terribly impressed voters.
All Najib have to do is reaffirm BN’s commitment to multiculturalism. BN is a grand coalition and it is time to point the road ahead. What anyone needs to do is just to promise political reform, not just economic or government transformation.
How can the DAP in Malaysia do better than Lee Kuan Yew’s failed policies in Singapore ?
1. Money was used as a tool of investment as Foreign Policy causing the deaths and injuries to innocent men, women and children. Vide. ASEAN Regional News. Thaksin.
2. The dysfunctional meritocratic pyramid with the smartest fellow on top lost US$108 Billions in October 2008 on Wall Street. Vide.
Channelnewsasia. Lee Kuan Yew. November 2008. All Singaporean Blogs. Financial Times London. Gillian Tett. April 2010. The Star. Seah Chiang Nee Column.
3. The 2 child-family Policy which effectively finished off the
procreation of indigenous Singaporeans. Vide. The Singapore
Government White Paper on Population. 1959 – 100% 2013 – 62%. 2030 – 45%
4. Multiculturalism and humanity were never practised. Vide. Channelnewasia. The Curry Smell Tribunal. The 188 bus drivers strike. The toilet fights.
5. The perfunctory Judiciary system which is well-known world wide. Vide. The unfortunate and fortunate Dr Chee. The unfortunate and unfortunate Tan Koon Swan. The Australian and German drug mules. Dr Woffles Wu. Shaw. etc.
6. 5,000 pigs imported daily. The flower nurseries contracts. The sale of Kim Eng Securities ot Maybank. etc.
7. Lee Kuan Yew became the Prime Minister in 1959 and will be there the next 10 years. During the same period, Malaysia had 6 elected Prime Ministers.
How is the DAP with their confrontational style of politics to succeed in Malaysia with much less brain power than the PAP ?
to The Real Rakyat,
sorry for replying so late. for your information, I have never commented at Malaysia Today. yes, for your information, I do comment at Stop The Lies from time to time, depending on the topic.
oops sorry.
hey The Real Rakyat.
for your information, when I do comment at Stop The Lies, I use the name anonymous. so if you see my name “The International Jew”, it means that PR cyber troopers have hijacked my name.
speaking of hijacking my name, a PR cyber trooper using my name has posted a comment at Stop The Lies yesterday afternoon at 1.50pm.
here is what he posted :
here’s the link guys. see for yourselves if he sounds like me or not.
http://stopthelies.my/?p=2817#comments
I feel sorry for the fella. he is a lousy imitator. but well, PR is a damaged goods coalition after all. the fact that he is using my name illustrates clearly that I m a threat to his party, just like how he used the names of Calvin Sankaran, Helen, PPP and God knows who else.
once again, I would like to remind people that I use the name “The International Jew” only when I m commenting at Helen’s blog. otherwise I comment using the name “anonymous” at other sites and blogs.
I jousted with the cybertroopers in Malaysia Chronicle up to over 80 comments and sometimes up to 3 a.m. over why Datin Seri Rosmah was properly awarded the LLD by the Curtin University – from time immemorial universities awarded their benefactors. My college awarded a fellowship to Li Ka Shing who spoke no English and no one complained. They lost the argument and hi-jacked my name which said I agreed to their lies.
Their total lack of scruples and disrespect for any kind of boundary makes them a dangerous horde. Not to mention their constant putar-belit and in denial.
Those young Chinese folks who now taunt, insult, stamp on photos, abuse, etc. and live on fresh air and sunshine, will be sorry when the BN as led by the UMNO with the 14 component parties in one single true coalition loses.
By supporting the DAP which is a 100% stand alone party from Singapore, they would have EFFECTIVELY isolated themselves in a country which is not dominated by the Chinese who numbers only 30%. The DAP then would have used by others and outsiders. I do not know what their parents and grand-parents think.
(1) BN will not lose. Only MCA and Gerakan will bungkus.
(2) Chinese do not number 30%. The population census of 2010 says 24.5 percent (i.e. one quarter of the Malaysian population).
(3) The Malays are under the impression that the baby dragons and phoenixes who throw temper tantrums are products of SRJK(C).
What is your opinion on (3), please?
btw, I agree with your assessment “EFFECTIVELY isolated themselves”.
on number 3. I agree with you. the SRJK (C) types, they get the blame almost all the time. yet the Chinese, they don’t get it.
Helen, its no longer just an “impression” anymore. its now so fixed in the minds of Malays, and to a lesser extend, even Indians see number 3 as the troublemakers.
and I m speaking this as someone educated by Anglophiles. I have to make this clear. I too am a product of Anglophile education.
So, does the “impression” right?
Sorry, typo — it’s 24.6 percent.
on (3).. we should abolish this SRJK.. Let our children enjoying their bangsa Malaysia.. but I know what perlembagaan said..
The Chinese for 5,000 years have not known democracy even in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China. What is the DAP bellyaching about things which are foreign to the Chinaman ? – especially in Malaysia.
We have contributed much to the socio-economic aspects in every country we live in but never demanded to be in the political controlling elite. Are the Chinese in the DAP leading the Chinese in the right direction in their own interests or something more sinister ?
:) :) :) to your first para.
re: “demanded to be in the political controlling elite”
I think any Chinese aspiration to have greater political say is a fair and just demand.
If we had fair and just Chinese leaders who can achieve this for the Chinese community in Malaysia, then well and good.
Unfortunately, LGE and his evangelical coterie are simply not it. Even within the DAP themselves, we are witnessing now what the Bintang Tiga Evangelista are doing to the Johor DAP faction.
I have operated at the ground level my whole life. OK. I take your statistics on the Chinamen. In fact, if I remember the proposed candidate for Segamat correctly, he said the Chinamen were disappearing fast into the ground – which should be less than 20% by now. He was a MCA strongman then.
Of course, the ruling elite has to be have over all or else there will be chaos. What I say is that anything the Chinese do should not be construed by others as being domineering and arrogant.
Here is something for the young Malaysian Chinese. Sometimes, I ask my friends ‘ Have you ever met a stupid Chinaman?’ Invariably the reply was. ‘No!’ Then, I followed with,’ You have met some who are so very clever as to be stupid.’ Most scratched their heads and I had to prompt them with some household names which they heartily agreed.
Whoever these young Chinese are, they should emulate my niece and nephew who spent time in Africa and Laos to pursue what they belief in and not run around the streets of KL or Subang with clean shirts and full stomachs and raised havoc at the behest of others, and gave bad impressions to others, of the majority of the Chinese who are law abiding and innocent.
My nephew taught the Laotians how to survive with the meagre means which they have and he has won the friendship of the Royal house.
If the young Chinese in Malaysia do not take the best out of the East and the West, forever they will be without spiritual or cultural ballast and are hollow.
To top this off, the many clans which they are derived from will subject them to sly and cunning manipulation by others to be used as proxies in others interests.
It pays for these young Chinese to think long and hard where are their strong points and where are their weak points to survive in this wild wide World of ours. Definitely, these young Chinese cannot live on fresh air and sunshine !
Has anyone noticed my comment No, 19 on the failures of Singapore’s policies ? Each and every one of them (7) has no compassion and was based on money, money, money.
It is OK for the 1% elite at the top, What about the 99% below ? Hence, the well-nigh impossible task for any Government now and in the future to embark on anything serious. At best, it is only a ‘Band-Aid’ solution !
I leave it to the DAP supporters to respond to you. Unfortunately, pro-oppo people are not the majority here — which is a pro-establishment watering hole.
No wonder you did not ban me. I am banned in all the Opposition Blogs. But you nearly did until I told you that my late elder brother, George married Lee Kuan Yew’s only sister Monica in October 1950 before the PAP was founded in 1955 !
Yes, it’s true that the oppo blogs ban dissenters all the time.
The pro-establishment blogs are more democratic. I do not consider myself pro-govt but I won’t deny that my writings on Papa and Mama Dapster are negative.
And no, I do not simply ban commenters. I had requested politely that you desist from repetitively commenting about Lee Kuan Yew and the “Third Class” degree insinuations as well as to picking on Tony Pua’s degree.
See, now that you’ve left off LKY and TP, your comments are so much more interesting and cover a more diverse range of topics.
(The same advice could also apply to me on leaving off HY and LGE, and talk about other things, hahaha.)
The reason that I presented facts on Lee Kuan Yew and TP is because not only did I get better grades than both of them at the entrance to my college. I did it the meritocratic way in open competition unlike them who went up to Cambridge by the back door surreptiously. Lee Kuan Yew definitely knows this. And if a person is vying for public office, he or she should be able to take in all the scrutiny of their achievements, good or bad. It is called transparency !